The reporter of futures daily learned that up to now, the reality of methanol is stronger, the expectation is weaker, the coastal area is stronger, and the inland is weaker. In the short term, the high cost of methanol at home and abroad, the import is tight, the rigid demand is maintained, and the inventory is removed are still the factors supporting the reality.

According to Hu Xin, an analyst of Yide futures, methanol imports showed a tight trend from January to February 2021, and methanol inventories in coastal areas and the mainland continued to decline. From the perspective of the mainland, the olefin production started at a high level, maintaining the just needed procurement. “The comprehensive start-up in the downstream decreased slightly, but the import was inverted, and the downstream olefin profits recovered more.” Fu De of Ningbo will restart this week, and salt lake of Qinghai will restart on February 8, Hu said.

“From the perspective of methanol port market, the upstream and midstream went to the reservoir last week, and the downstream replenished the reservoir.” Hu Xin said that the coastal unloading volume is only 120000-130000 tons, but it is expected that there will be concentrated arrivals at the end of the month. In addition, due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign countries, there are expected to be more coastal re exports.

Hu Xin believes that multiple factors in the short term will still support methanol reality. However, in the medium term, the restart of domestic and foreign gas head plants and the investment of new methanol production capacity will gradually materialize, and the supply pressure of the mainland will increase significantly at that time.

“In the later stage, the market needs to continue to pay attention to the changes of coastal and inland inventory data to see whether it can confirm the expectation of weakening fundamentals.” He said that in the short term, combined with the atmosphere of chemical products, it is still dominated by oscillatory operation, but in the medium term, it is still weak thinking, focusing on short selling when the price is above 2350 yuan / ton and anti arbitrage opportunities when the price is 5-9 yuan.