Domestic p-xylene price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the market price trend of p-xylene this week is temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 55.81%.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, and the domestic p-xylene supply is relatively normal, but some overseas units are still under maintenance. Due to the general downstream demand, the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable. The closing price of international crude oil rose, while the external price of PX rose slightly. As of the 9th, the closing prices were US $824-826 / T FOB Korea and US $842-844 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia has been relatively stable. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene unit in Asia is more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the closing price of PX has little change, The domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Crude oil prices rose this week. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $70.94/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $74.42/barrel. Early this week, South Africa reported that the symptoms of local Omicron infection cases were mild. After that, the market was worried about undermining oil demand and oil prices ushered in a retaliatory rebound. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are at an impasse, the possibility of Iranian oil returning to the market is reduced, and crude oil is also supported to a certain extent. Second, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell slightly last week, which benefited the oil market. OPEC +, an oil producing country, also acts as a ballast. OPEC + decided to continue to release 400000 barrels / day of production capacity as planned at the ministerial meeting on December 2, reflecting the confidence of the alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia in the future demand prospects. The rising trend of oil price has a certain positive impact on the domestic petrochemical market, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

The downstream PTA market price trend rose this week. As of the 10th, the average PTA market price was 4600-4700 yuan / ton, and the PTA price rose by 4.37% this week. At present, the improvement of PTA market is mainly due to the recovery of crude oil market and the good supply side brought by centralized maintenance of units. However, the current terminal orders are still relatively light, the downstream polyester inventory is accumulated, and the raw material procurement is mainly to meet the rigid demand. At present, the operating rate of the industry is maintained at close to 73%. The terminal orders in the terminal market are still relatively light. At present, the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.31%, and the raw material preparation of weaving factories continues to decline. At present, the normal production volume is maintained, and the preparation volume is in 2-3 weeks. On the demand side, due to the continuous decline of domestic and foreign trade orders on a month on month basis, considering that it is difficult for orders to improve before the Spring Festival, it is expected that factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will stop for vacation one after another from mid December, and the startup load will continue to decline. PTA plant in the raw material market is still planned to be overhauled, the positive support on the cost side remains, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current crude oil price is supported to a certain extent, and the cost side is still supporting. In addition, some downstream PTA devices may be overhauled, resulting in poor demand in the terminal textile industry. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene may remain low and stabilize temporarily in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the mainstream price of styrene in China has been slightly explored this week. On Monday (December 6), the price of sample enterprises of business society was 8200.00 yuan / ton, and on Friday (December 10), the price of sample enterprises was 8262.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.76%. The price increased by 7.54% over the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Styrene market price rose slightly this week. On December 6, East China styrene closed near 8100-8200 yuan / ton. On December 10, it was 8250-8300 yuan / ton, with an increase of 100-150 yuan / ton. The above is the tank export price of Zhangjiagang. On December 6, South China styrene offered 8200-8250 yuan / ton, and on December 10, 8250-8300 yuan / ton, an increase of 50 yuan / ton, and the delivery price of the above factories.

In terms of raw materials, after the rise of crude oil this week, the chemical industry was consolidated as a whole. This week, pure benzene in the upstream of styrene followed the trend of crude oil and styrene. After rising, it remained stable. The mainstream quotation of pure benzene on Friday (December 10) was 6420.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 80 yuan / ton, or 1.26%, compared with 6340.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 6).

In terms of operating rate, the average operating rate of domestic styrene plants this week was 75.93%, down 0.39% from last week, and the overall supply was slightly surplus. During the week, phase I of South China Q enterprise was restarted, Keyuan, Yuhuang and Shengyuan had no restart plan, and SINOCHEM Quanzhou stopped for maintenance. It is expected that CNOOC shell phase 2 will be overhauled in December. In terms of new devices, Wanhua may discharge materials in mid December; Lihuayi may postpone to January; Zhenhai Liande plans to ignite at the end of the month, and the product is expected to be delivered in January; Tianjin Bohua is expected to be postponed to the first quarter of next year. It can not be ruled out that the overall long-term bad is too much due to the postponement of the Winter Olympic Games again.

Downstream, the overall operating rate of styrene downstream rose this week. The PS market price remained stable this week. As of Friday (December 10), the mainstream ex factory quotation of PS in East China was 10166.67 yuan / ton. The output and commencement increased this week, but there was no accumulation of inventory, and the production and sales were balanced as a whole. The operating rate of PS industry was 84.49%, with a month on month increase of 2.41% and a year-on-year increase of 18.64%. CITIC Guoan increased to 6 through 2, Huizhou Renxin phase 2 raised the negative, and Ningbo Ineos Benz stopped on December 9.

In the EPS market, as of Friday (December 10), the mainstream ex factory quotation of EPS in East China was 9950.00 yuan / ton, up 25 yuan / ton or 0.25% from 9925.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 6). EPS weekly industry started about 54.19%, with a month on month increase of 10.93%. Jiangyin plant returned to normal, Zhuhai rengeng and Tianjin Jiatai stopped, and the overall load increased significantly. The negative atmosphere in the periphery was slightly relieved this week, with high opening support of styrene monomer and tentative small rise of merchants. It was heard that local transactions were good and the overall situation was general.

In the ABS market, as of Friday (December 10), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang was 15800.00 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton or 1.56% from 16050.00 yuan / ton on Monday. The ABS industry started 96.82%, up 3.42% from last week. This week, there is no maintenance manufacturer in China except Haijiang, and the overall starting load is high. In the first half of the week, PetroChina’s shipment was average, the listing price was reduced, and the market fell. In the second half of the week, Ningbo Zhenhai was affected by public health events, some supply sources were affected, and the market price stopped falling and stabilized.

3、 Later outlook

Crude oil consolidation, pure benzene temporary stable consolidation, the cost side gives styrene bottom support, which can not provide rising power. With the impact of the epidemic, the overall impact of policy requirements in Zhenhai area on the upstream and downstream industrial chain is empty. In addition, there is an expectation that new units will be put into operation. On the whole, the styrene market is expected to be in a weak consolidation state next week, and the price is expected to be around 7900-8200 yuan / ton

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 9, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 26480 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 5 (reference price 30600 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 4120 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.46%.

Entering this week, the overall trend of silicone DMC market continued to run downward under the condition of insufficient support from both supply and demand. Affected by the weak downward trend in the price of raw metal silicon, the support given to silicone DMC in terms of cost is weakened, and the demand performance is still insufficient. Under the dual pressure of cost and demand, at the beginning of this week (December 7), the factory price of silicone DMC in Shandong Province was significantly reduced by 2500 yuan / ton, and the factory price of silicone DMC fell to 27400 yuan / ton, The sharp price adjustment of large manufacturers added a dark cloud to the already gloomy market. Then, in the middle of the week, other large manufacturers also began to reduce the ex factory price of silicone DMC by about 1000-1500 yuan / ton. The confidence of field operators was hit, the bearish mood increased, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was stronger, the pace of goods preparation was still slow, and the overall demand was still weak. On Thursday (December 9), Shandong large factory once again significantly reduced the ex factory price of silicone DMC to 26000 yuan / ton, with a reduction of 1300 yuan / ton. The raw metal silicon also continued to decline weakly. With the increase of air atmosphere in the field and the pressure of bad factors, other factories and suppliers also began to make large profits and ship goods. The low-end quotation of silicone DMC in the field fell to 25200 yuan / ton, with a maximum drop of nearly 5000 yuan / ton. As of December 9, the quotation of domestic silicone DMC was around 25200-27000 yuan / ton, and the average price was 26480 yuan / ton, with a decrease of more than 13% during the week.

In terms of index, the silicone DMC commodity index on December 8 was 151.86, down 1.03 points from yesterday, down 53.87% from the highest point of 329.21 in the cycle (2021-10-10), and up 115.71% from the lowest point of 70.40 on July 27, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream metal silicon, this week, the domestic metal silicon 441# market as a whole fell. From the perspective of supply-demand relationship, there is a backlog in the inventory of silicon plants, but the transaction at the demand side is cautious and the price is pressed more, resulting in poor shipment of silicon plants and a stalemate in the metal silicon market as a whole. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on December 9, the metal silicon 441# average price was 23510 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.62% during the week compared with the beginning of the week.

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, after the organosilicon DMC price has fallen sharply, the downstream operators are still cautious, the overall performance of downstream demand is general, there is no large-scale replenishment, and the organosilicon DMC data division of business society believes that although the strong support of the demand side has not yet appeared, the current organosilicon DMC market price has fallen to a low point, and there is limited room for significant decline in the future, Therefore, it is expected that the silicone DMC market is dominated by weak consolidation operation, and more attention should be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fell steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the market price was 7617 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7467 yuan / ton, down 1.97%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of the business agency, the price of propylene (Shandong) continued to decline this week. As of Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong market was 7450-7500 yuan / ton, about 70-80% of the overall market started, the supply was sufficient, the demand side was weak, the focus of negotiation shifted downward, the cost side support weakened, the delivery of goods by enterprises was not smooth, and the price was under pressure.

Upstream: propylene upstream fell more or rose less this week. Crude oil was shrouded in bad news and the price fluctuated lower under the influence of the new crown variant virus aggravating the U.S. economic risk and inflation uncertainty. Propane market has sufficient supply, insufficient demand support and falling price trend. Supported by the cost of methanol, the price has increased. The price of liquefied gas is stable and small, and the price changes little. On the whole, it mainly affects the decline in the price of raw crude oil and the loosening of propylene cost.

Downstream: isopropanol, a downstream product, rose slightly, while other products stabilized temporarily or fell further. The demand side is weak, and it is difficult to boost the propylene market demand.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business agency believe that the overall market of propylene market is dominated by bad conditions. In the future, with the impact of enterprises eager to buy goods and low-cost sources, propylene prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and fall.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of December 7, the average price of melamine enterprises was 13393.33 yuan / ton, down 16.98% compared with December 1, 31.78% compared with November 7, and 13.59% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Melamine market prices fell broadly this week. Recently, the price of raw urea fell and the cost support weakened. The overall start-up of the melamine market is at a high level, but the demand side support is weak. Affected by environmental protection control and other factors in some areas, the downstream start-up is limited, the just demand is weak, the export is mainly wait-and-see, the support is limited, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, the market is poor, and the focus of melamine negotiation is weak.

For upstream urea, the ex factory quotation of domestic urea decreased slightly on December 6, down 48.00 yuan / ton or 1.92% compared with December 3, and increased by 35.61% compared with the same period last year. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have fallen slightly recently, and the cost support has weakened. In terms of demand, agricultural demand increased slightly, while industrial demand was mainly on the sidelines. The promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer was slow, and large urea purchase orders began to appear in the downstream compound fertilizer plants. The inventory of melamine enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. In terms of supply, the inventory of urea manufacturers is high, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. At the end of the month, the gas head unit will be shut down one after another, and the urea output will decline. On the whole, the urea cost support is general, the downstream demand is mainly just demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the urea supply is reduced.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that the recent decline in urea prices, weakening cost support, oversupply in the market, poor shipment of enterprises and pressure on inventory. It is expected that the melamine market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1826 yuan / ton on November 29 and 1896 yuan / ton on December 5. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 3.83% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the ammonium sulfate Market stopped falling and rebounded, and the price fluctuated upward. Coking grade ammonium sulfate increased slightly, and the high level of Hexian grade ammonium sulfate was strong. The goods are acceptable in the market and purchased on demand in the downstream. For coking grade ammonium sulfate this week, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1800-1850 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is 1750-1800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shanxi is 1700-1750 yuan / ton. This week’s domestic ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 2100-2150 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market remained stable this week without fluctuation. The prices of urea and monoammonium phosphate, the raw materials of compound fertilizer, continued to fall, and the market of potassium fertilizer remained unchanged for the time being. At present, the turnover of compound fertilizer market is limited, mainly on the sidelines, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that although the ammonium sulfate Market is not obviously good at present, there is no inventory pressure for the time being, the manufacturers have obvious willingness to support the price, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of downstream demand, and it is expected that ammonium sulfate will operate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3266 yuan / ton on November 29 and 3183 yuan / ton on December 3. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 2.55% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3590 yuan / ton on November 29 and 3600 yuan / ton on December 3. The price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.28% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of monoammonium phosphate fell this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 49%, up from last week. On Monday, the ammonium market was still depressed, the market was poor, and there were few new orders. Although the price of raw materials has risen, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have little demand for monoammonium. Traders’ mentality is unstable, and the transaction focus of monoammonium phosphate continues to decline. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China is 3050-3350 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

The price of diammonium phosphate fluctuated slightly this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 48%, up from last week. On Tuesday, the ammonium market was mainly on the sidelines, and the market was weak. The high price of raw materials has a certain support for diammonium phosphate. However, the market situation of winter storage is poor, the unit operates at low load, and most enterprises suspend quotation. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3450-3600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction can be negotiated.

This week, the raw phosphorus ore market continued to operate at a high end, and the on-site supply continued to be tight. Most of the supply was mainly contract customers. It was relatively difficult for downstream enterprises to purchase raw materials. Therefore, some downstream enterprises were reluctant to sell. With the mutual support of upstream and downstream, the overall market of phosphorus ore and its direct downstream was dominated by strong operation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that although the raw material market of Monoammonium is good, the market performance is insufficient and the demand side is weak. The price of diammonium is mainly stable, and the cost support is acceptable. It is expected that monoammonium will continue to operate steadily in the short term, while diammonium will continue to operate steadily and wait-and-see.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week, and the price continued to rise steadily. On December 2, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 194600 yuan / ton, which was 1.35% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 192000 yuan / ton on November 28). On December 2, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 206000 yuan / ton, which was 1.88% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 202200 yuan / ton on November 28). As of December 2, the comprehensive market quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate is around 187000 ~ 198000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive market quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate is around 197000 ~ 220000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate is still rising this week, and the number of enterprises with rising price of lithium carbonate is also increasing. With the end of the year approaching, the trading volume of lithium carbonate market has increased and the market quotation has been rising. In addition, this year’s Spring Festival is earlier than last year, and downstream enterprises have begun to prepare goods for the Spring Festival in advance. While the demand is rising, the price is also rising. Under the condition of continuous favorable market trading, lithium carbonate inventory continued to be low.

The downstream domestic industrial lithium hydroxide price remains stable, the domestic supply may increase in the near future, while there is no significant increase in downstream orders, the market is in a state of slight surplus, and the short-term price may be stable temporarily.

The price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable. Recently, some iron lithium enterprises gradually began to sign new orders, and phosphoric acid gradually stabilized recently. However, the market of lithium salt in short supply reappeared and began to prepare goods gradually, which made the overall manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate rise, but the transmission took time and has not been reflected in the terminal.

The lithium carbonate analyst of business society believes that at present, the downstream market of lithium carbonate is actively prepared, the market demand is increased, and the trading volume is significantly increased. It is expected that there is still room for the price of lithium carbonate to rise in the short term.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (December 1): 16133.33 yuan / ton

On December 1, the melamine market was weak, down 6.20% from last Wednesday (November 23) and 19.47% from November 1. At present, the upstream urea price is temporarily stable, the cost support is general, the inventory of some enterprises is under pressure, the domestic demand is still poor, the export market performance is general, and the overall market atmosphere is weak.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.

In November 2021, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market first fell and then rose in a “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 15631.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15393.75 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.16%.

On November 29, the lead commodity index was 93.08, up 0.23 points from yesterday, down 30.54% from the highest point of 134.01 in the cycle (November 29, 2016), and up 24.72% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the lead price has continuously maintained weak operation in recent one month.

In the middle and early November, Lun lead and Shanghai lead maintained a shock downward trend as a whole, which was mainly affected by the continuous sharp rise of the US dollar index in fundamentals, the metal market was generally under pressure, and the prices of Lun lead and Shanghai lead were dragged down. The spot lead price was greatly affected by the futures market. The spot market basically followed the trend of Shanghai lead, and the lead price fluctuated downward in the first half of the month. Supply: the original lead manufacturers gradually resume production, but some manufacturers are still overhauling. The recovery of primary lead enterprises is good, and the overall supply side is good. The downstream has been maintaining on-demand procurement in November, and the social inventory is on the high side as a whole.

After entering the middle and late ten days, the futures market performed well, and the Shanghai lead price continued to rise. Although the range was limited, the overall trend was stable and upward. The spot market was boosted and followed the slow upward trend of futures prices. Near the end of the month, a large enterprise in Anhui suddenly reduced production, while the implementation of environmental protection policies in Hunan, the main production area, affected the local output. The expected output of lead ingots decreased in the future, which boosted market confidence. At the end of the month, the market entered a volatile upward trend. However, whenever the lead ingot Market is high, the wait-and-see mood in the market will become strong. At the end of the month, the market trading is cold and wait-and-see. On the whole, the impact of the current power restriction policy has been ignored, the resumption of production of primary lead enterprises is good, and the overall supply side is good. Driven by the improvement of foreign orders, the demand of downstream storage enterprises has recovered well recently, but the high overall inventory is still the main factor restricting the rise of lead price.

At present, the demand of downstream storage enterprises for raw lead ingots is OK, and the overall market sentiment is good, but the overall inventory is still high. China continues to de inventory. It is expected that the lead ingot price will be consolidated at a high level in the future, and the upward space is limited.

Relevant data:

WBMs: the latest data report released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on Wednesday shows that there is a supply shortage of 269100 tons in the global lead market from January to September 2021 and 80400 tons in 2020. The total inventory at the end of September was 77200 tons higher than that in 2020. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to September 2021, the global refined lead output was 10.5419 million tons, an increase of 18.6% over the same period in 2020. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 5.2948 million tons, an increase of 1.544 million tons over the same period in 2020, accounting for about 49% of the global total. From January to September 2021, the apparent demand of the United States increased by 113000 tons year-on-year. In September, the output of refined lead was 1168600 tons and the demand was 1209400 tons.

On November 29, 2021, London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory decreased by 50 tons (unit: tons) from 57300 tons