“V” trend of domestic lead ingot Market in November 2021

In November 2021, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market first fell and then rose in a “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 15631.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15393.75 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.16%.

On November 29, the lead commodity index was 93.08, up 0.23 points from yesterday, down 30.54% from the highest point of 134.01 in the cycle (November 29, 2016), and up 24.72% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

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The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the lead price has continuously maintained weak operation in recent one month.

In the middle and early November, Lun lead and Shanghai lead maintained a shock downward trend as a whole, which was mainly affected by the continuous sharp rise of the US dollar index in fundamentals, the metal market was generally under pressure, and the prices of Lun lead and Shanghai lead were dragged down. The spot lead price was greatly affected by the futures market. The spot market basically followed the trend of Shanghai lead, and the lead price fluctuated downward in the first half of the month. Supply: the original lead manufacturers gradually resume production, but some manufacturers are still overhauling. The recovery of primary lead enterprises is good, and the overall supply side is good. The downstream has been maintaining on-demand procurement in November, and the social inventory is on the high side as a whole.

After entering the middle and late ten days, the futures market performed well, and the Shanghai lead price continued to rise. Although the range was limited, the overall trend was stable and upward. The spot market was boosted and followed the slow upward trend of futures prices. Near the end of the month, a large enterprise in Anhui suddenly reduced production, while the implementation of environmental protection policies in Hunan, the main production area, affected the local output. The expected output of lead ingots decreased in the future, which boosted market confidence. At the end of the month, the market entered a volatile upward trend. However, whenever the lead ingot Market is high, the wait-and-see mood in the market will become strong. At the end of the month, the market trading is cold and wait-and-see. On the whole, the impact of the current power restriction policy has been ignored, the resumption of production of primary lead enterprises is good, and the overall supply side is good. Driven by the improvement of foreign orders, the demand of downstream storage enterprises has recovered well recently, but the high overall inventory is still the main factor restricting the rise of lead price.

At present, the demand of downstream storage enterprises for raw lead ingots is OK, and the overall market sentiment is good, but the overall inventory is still high. China continues to de inventory. It is expected that the lead ingot price will be consolidated at a high level in the future, and the upward space is limited.

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Relevant data:

WBMs: the latest data report released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on Wednesday shows that there is a supply shortage of 269100 tons in the global lead market from January to September 2021 and 80400 tons in 2020. The total inventory at the end of September was 77200 tons higher than that in 2020. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to September 2021, the global refined lead output was 10.5419 million tons, an increase of 18.6% over the same period in 2020. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 5.2948 million tons, an increase of 1.544 million tons over the same period in 2020, accounting for about 49% of the global total. From January to September 2021, the apparent demand of the United States increased by 113000 tons year-on-year. In September, the output of refined lead was 1168600 tons and the demand was 1209400 tons.

On November 29, 2021, London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory decreased by 50 tons (unit: tons) from 57300 tons


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