According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid fell in the first half of May. As of the 16th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10114.29 yuan/ton. The price in the first half of May fell by 1.53%, 13.77% year-on-year.

Supply side: In the first half of the month, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid has declined. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions in China is 10000-10400 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices are still in parking, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is weak. As a result, the market trend of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined.

Raw material side: The price trend of raw material fluorite in the first half of the month has increased. As of the 16th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3137.5 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.03% in the first half of the month. Recently, the operating rate of domestic fluorite enterprises is relatively low, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work is still facing many difficulties. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and there is a serious shortage of fluorite mining operations. In addition, in some areas, non-metallic mining accidents have occurred, and the requirements of environmental protection and emergency management departments have become stricter. The difficulty of mining operations has increased, and domestic fluorite raw materials are tightening. The operation of fluorite flotation devices is limited, and the price of fluorite has slightly increased. The price of raw materials is high, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are under heavy pressure.

On the demand side: The market trend of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. Recently, there has been sufficient refrigerant supply, which has led to a sluggish domestic refrigerant R22 price market. Refrigerant R22 manufacturers have low loads and inventory is within a reasonable range, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low loads, and R134a prices remain low. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main focus, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the actual transaction situation is light. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000-25500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. Demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant. Overall, the refrigerant market is poor, with operating rates of less than 30%, and procurement of upstream raw materials is scarce, The hydrofluoric acid market has declined due to demand drag.

Future forecast: The market trend of raw material fluorite is temporarily stable in the short term, but the commencement of downstream refrigerant industry remains sluggish. The purchase of hydrofluoric acid is light, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal. Affected by this, hydrofluoric acid production enterprises are suffering from serious losses. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst from Business Society, believes that the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable in the short term.

This week, the lead market (5.5-5.12) fluctuated and declined, with the average price in the domestic market at 15230 yuan/ton over the weekend and 15155 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.49%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated weakly after the holiday.

In terms of the futures market, there was little volatility this week. LME inventory remained stable throughout the week, and the overall trend of non-ferrous metals was weak. On Thursday, macroeconomic data fell short of expectations and poor China’s social finance data affected market sentiment. The overall decline of non-ferrous metals was accompanied by a decline in Shanghai lead, but due to its good resilience, the decline was relatively small compared to other metals. In terms of fundamentals, battery companies have performed significantly during the off-season, with overall weak downstream demand. In terms of supply, with the gradual resumption of production by maintenance enterprises in the near future, the supply is more sufficient than in the early stage, and social inventory has also increased to a certain extent. Overall, there has been a slight increase in market supply after the holiday, while demand remains weak. In the future, the business community predicts that the trend will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited market volatility in the off-season.

On May 12, 2023, London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory of 32900 tons remained unchanged (in tons)

On May 14th, the base metal index stood at 1172 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.48% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 82.55% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices in the 19th week of 2023 (5.8-5.12), with dysprosium oxide (3.93%), dysprosium iron alloy (3.47%), and metal praseodymium (2.63%) among the top 3 commodities. There are a total of 12 products with a month on month decrease, and 2 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were nickel (-8.00%), silver (-5.31%), and copper (-3.84%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.54%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6 to May 12, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was lowered. Last weekend, it was 7200 yuan/ton, and this weekend, it was 7066.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85%.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures continued to decline on May 11th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.87 per barrel, a decrease of $1.69 or 2.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.98 per barrel, a decrease of $1.43 or 1.9%. The debt ceiling impasse in the United States has intensified the fear of economic recession, and the increase in the number of Americans who apply for unemployment benefits roughly has put pressure on the oil market.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 250 yuan/ton on May 8, 2023, and is currently at 7050 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7170 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7153 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has experienced a decline in recent times, with a continuous decline for four weeks.

In terms of industrial chain: This week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell, and overall declined. The downstream styrene market continued to decline, dragging down the external market of pure benzene. The pure benzene market overall declined this week, and there were rumors that Sinopec’s listed price had a downward expectation, which once again affected the market mentality. After the hydrogenation benzene festival, it followed the overall downward trend of pure benzene, and the current factory price in the main production area is around 6900-7050 yuan/ton.

This week, the hydrogenation benzene market follows the trend of pure benzene and is generally weak. As of the 12th, the ex factory price in the main production area was between 6900 and 7050 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price in East China was between 6950 and 7000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the market has been operating weakly recently, with the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises slightly declining, and some manufacturers have maintenance plans. In terms of demand, downstream procurement is just needed, and the overall demand has not changed much. Downstream styrene market has declined, indicating a willingness to hold down the price of pure benzene, putting pressure on the industry chain market. Overall, the recent decline in crude oil has led to a narrow decline in the price of pure benzene due to the drag. In the future, the business community expects the industrial chain to decline, and the price of hydrogenated benzene will be mainly weak in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of May 11, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton or 2.80% compared to May 7, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate at 4766 yuan/ton).

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.7-5.11), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a weak downward trend. This week, the trading atmosphere in the dimethyl carbonate market was flat, and downstream demand was insufficient to support a stable market. Some dimethyl carbonate manufacturers lowered prices to stimulate shipments, with a reduction of about 200 yuan/ton. As of May 11, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4400-4800 yuan/ton. At present, the new orders for dimethyl carbonate are relatively light, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall weak operation of dimethyl carbonate in the market is still evident in downstream demand, and the overall supply and demand transmission is relatively slow. Business Society’s dimethyl carbonate data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of May 6, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 8233 yuan/ton. Compared with May 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7166 yuan/ton), the price increased by 1067 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.88%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that after the May Day holiday, the domestic Shandong n-butanol market has experienced a broad upward trend. The main driving force behind the concentrated upward movement of the n-butanol market comes from the supply side. During the holiday season, some regions in China shut down n-butanol plants, and after the holiday, the supply of n-butanol on site is tightening. The tight spot circulation supports the upward movement of the market center of gravity. On the first working day after the holiday, domestic butanol factories in Shandong region have raised the price of butanol by 300 to 500 yuan/ton. The overall market situation of n-butanol continued to rise in the following two days. As of May 6, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province is around 8200-8500 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is mild, and the supply side continues to provide some support to the market. The market is moving higher, and downstream new orders are trading cautiously. The n-butanol data analyst of the Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region will mostly remain stable and consolidate, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PVC spot market price fell in April. On April 1st, the average price of domestic PVC was 6096.67 yuan/ton, while on April 28th, the average price was 5925 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.82% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

PVC spot market prices fell in April. PVC spot market prices continued to fall in April. The price of raw material calcium carbide has decreased, and cost support is weak. In addition, PVC inventory is still high, resulting in a continuous downward trend in spot prices. Overall, the market demand was light this month and the trading situation was poor. Intermediaries are often cautious and cautious, while downstream processing enterprises mainly focus on obtaining goods on demand and taking them as needed, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5700-6280 yuan/ton.

In terms of international crude oil, on April 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.76 per barrel, an increase of $0.46 or 0.6%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $77.72 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 or 0.6%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory prices of power plants in the northwest region fluctuated and fell in April. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 3133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2983.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.79%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 25.10% year-on-year. Looking at the future market: In mid to early May, the calcium carbide market may slightly decline, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of upstream raw materials such as blue charcoal have stabilized at a low level, while the cost support for calcium carbide is average. Calcium carbide enterprises have a high operating rate and high inventory. The downstream PVC market continues to decline, and downstream demand is insufficient. Supply exceeds demand, and it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early May, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that the PVC spot market price continued to fall this month, and the upstream carbide price fell in shock, lacking support. The performance of futures has not been satisfactory, and the overall market confidence is insufficient. Traders and downstream players have a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with a focus on just needs. It is expected that the PVC spot market will be weak and consolidated in the short term.

In April, the domestic propane market continued to decline, with a broad decline. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average market price of propane in Shandong on April 1st was 5383 yuan/ton, and on April 26th it was 5088 yuan/ton. The monthly decline was 5.48%, a decrease of 21.43% compared to the same period last year.

As of April 27th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ April 27th

South China region/ 5050-5100 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5050-5200 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5050-5100 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5050-5250 yuan/ton

In April, the propane market remained weak and demand dragged on, continuing to decline. In early April of this month, the CP introduced a sharp drop, resulting in lower import prices and considerable profits for port traders. Crude oil prices have skyrocketed, with limited news support, weak demand, and low demand for combustion. The demand side is constrained, and the propane market is weak and declining. In the middle of the month, the propane market experienced a rebound, with downstream bargains entering the market and periodic restocking, pushing propane up. However, as prices rose to high levels, downstream purchasing enthusiasm decreased, and propane prices stabilized. As the end of the month approaches the holiday, downstream inventory demand and propane prices begin to strengthen.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in April, and the contract prices for propane and butane were significantly reduced, with propane at $555 per ton, a decrease of $165 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $545 per ton, a decrease of $195 per ton compared to last month.

Overall, with the May Day holiday approaching and downstream pre holiday stocking operations, demand is expected to increase, and it is expected to enter the short-term market in May. The Shandong propane market is slightly upward, but overall demand is still weak and difficult to improve, with a long-term bearish outlook.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market fell first and then rose in April 2023. The average price in the domestic market was 208110 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 207060 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 0.5%.

On April 25th, the base metal index was 1228 points, a decrease of 7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.01% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.28% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

On April 25th, the tin commodity index was 108.03, a decrease of 0.81 points from yesterday, a decrease of 42.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 152.05% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that tin prices have been mainly declining in the past six months, with significant declines occurring in May at -18.54% and June at -22.32%. After entering November, prices have been the main trend, with monthly increases exceeding 10%. After entering February, the market fell, with a monthly decline of 11.35%. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the recent rise in tin prices has been more or less negative.

In April 2023, the tin market fluctuated and declined in the first half of the month, while experienced significant fluctuations in the second half. In the first half of the month, the overall performance of the tin market was weak, and under the dual weak supply and demand pattern, downstream demand remained weak. Without actual demand support, it is expected that the tin market will maintain a weak overall operation. In the short term, the impact of domestic tin prices is still limited, and tin price fluctuations mainly follow international macro trends. Starting from April 15th, under the influence of a sudden news, tin prices rose first and then fell in the second half of the month, experiencing significant fluctuations. On April 15, the Central economic planning Committee of the Wa State of Myanmar issued the Notice on Suspension of All Mineral Resources Exploitation, which pointed out that in order to protect the Wa mineral resources, the mining and excavation of all mineral resources would be suspended until the conditions for mature mining were not met. Myanmar, as the largest importer of China, accounts for about 50% of the tin concentrate production in the Wa region mentioned in the notice. If tin mines in the Myanmar region stop production after August 1st, it will have a significant impact on domestic tin supply. Under the influence of this news, domestic Shanghai tin rose by the limit on the day of the 17th, and rose by another 6.93% on the night of the 17th. After the news of Wa State was digested by the market around the 18th, it was difficult for Shanghai Tin to have support, and prices continued to decline, falling continuously.

On the supply side: Currently, there is not much change in the overall domestic supply and demand, and the attitude of smelters towards high prices remains unchanged. The operating rate remains at a relatively stable level of around 60%. However, based on the import data of tin concentrate, in March 2023, the physical import volume of tin concentrate in China was 21927 tons, with a metal conversion volume of 5879.5 tons, an increase of 29.9% compared to the previous month. However, due to the end of dumping in Myanmar this year, the year-on-year data has decreased significantly, reaching 33.5%, indicating that the supply at the mining end is still tight. In terms of demand, it remains weak and shows little signs of recovery in the short term. Currently, the main application field of tin in China is the electronics industry. In the downstream consumption structure of refined tin metal, soldering tin accounts for about 44% of the market share, while tin plates account for about 16% of the market share. Therefore, the development of the electronics industry, including the new energy industry, has a significant impact on tin. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of integrated circuits from January to February 2023 was 44.3 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. According to Business News, due to the poor performance of electronic orders in the near future, the operating rate of solder companies has remained stable in the near future, and it is expected that there will be no significant changes in the future. In terms of inventory, LME inventory is currently at a low level, while domestic inventory is still relatively high. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices is still limited in the short term. In the future, it is still necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative import volume of tin ore sand and its concentrate in China in March 2023 was 21927 tons (equivalent to 6766.8 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 24.35% and a month on month increase of 27.67%. Among them, the import volume from Myanmar in March was 16787 tons (equivalent to 4196.6 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 22.22% and a month on month increase of 25.94%; Except for Myanmar, the total import volume from other countries in March was 5140 tons (equivalent to 2570.2 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 30.58% and a month on month increase of 33.68%.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in February 2023, global refined tin production was 28800 tons, consumption was 24900 tons, and supply surplus was 3900 tons. The global tin ore production in February 2023 was 24300 tons.

On April 15, the Central economic planning Committee of the Wa State of Myanmar issued the Notice on Suspension of All Mineral Resources Exploitation, which pointed out that in order to protect the Wa mineral resources, the mining and excavation of all mineral resources would be suspended until the conditions for mature mining were not met. After August 1, 2023, all exploration, mining, processing and other operations in the mine will cease. Myanmar is the first source country for China’s tin ore imports. According to customs data, in 2022, China imported 187300 tons of tin ore from Myanmar, accounting for approximately 77% of China’s total imports. The tin concentrate production in the Wa region accounts for about 50% of the total production in Myanmar. If the tin mines in Myanmar stop production after August 1st, it will have a significant impact on the domestic tin supply.

Domestic cobalt prices have stopped rising and falling this week

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 21, cobalt prices were 271600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to April 14, when cobalt prices were 272400 yuan/ton; The cobalt price decreased by 1.77% compared to 276500 yuan/ton on April 19th; The cobalt price decreased by 6.57% compared to 290700 yuan/ton on April 1st. International cobalt prices have plummeted, with cobalt prices briefly rising this week and then falling back.

International cobalt prices plummet

From the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that MB cobalt price has significantly decreased this week, and international cobalt prices have stopped rising and falling, which is negative for the domestic cobalt market. Domestic cobalt prices have stopped rising and falling.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the international cobalt price has stopped rising and plummeted this week, causing a bearish situation in the international cobalt market. The supply and demand of the cobalt market are relatively balanced, and the downward pressure on the domestic cobalt market has increased. This week, the cobalt price has stopped rising and falling. In the future, the supply and demand of cobalt in the market are relatively balanced, and there are still bearish trends in the cobalt market. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 24th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last Thursday (April 20th).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily. In the near future, the raw material sulfuric acid market is weak, and the raw material methanol market is strong. The change in cost has little impact. The downstream supply is mainly on demand before the festival. The market negotiation atmosphere is mild, the transaction is orderly, and the price center of formic acid market is stable.

Upstream product: Upstream sulfuric acid. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for sulfuric acid on April 21 was 235.00, a decrease of 2.08% compared to April 1 (240.00); Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on April 21, the reference price for methanol was 2570.00, an increase of 0.33% compared to April 1 (2561.67).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that at present, raw material prices are fluctuating, and the cost side impact is limited. Downstream goods are prepared in an orderly manner according to demand before holidays, and the market atmosphere is still acceptable. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.