Price Trend
The domestic butadiene market has been declining recently. As of January 22, the price of butadiene was 10 367 yuan/ton, up 12.77% from the same period last year, according to the monitoring of business associations.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, butadiene pricing and sales of northern manufacturers, part of the downstream pre-holiday stock, manufacturers shipment situation is better, market operators offer limited. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the butadiene market in Shandong, and the shipment situation of the northern manufacturers is better, which supports the mindset of the market operators, but the market offer is scarce. Eastern China butadiene market information is limited, the market atmosphere is quiet, downstream sporadic just need inquiries. Asian closing price of butadiene, FOB Korea average offer $1145-1153 per ton; CFR China average offer $1195-1203 per ton.

Industry Chain: Styrene Butadiene Rubber: Although natural rubber futures are strong, the market of Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR) shows weakness due to the lower price and weak demand performance of the supplier. The quotations of the suppliers are declining, and a small amount of transactions are mostly just needed. Cis-butadiene rubber: Natural rubber is strong, but due to weak demand and lower prices of cis-butadiene rubber due to suppliers, the offer of manufacturers has declined, the transaction is flat, a small amount of trading is mostly just needed. SBS: Oil glue in domestic SBS market is weakening partially, and dry glue road is running smoothly.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external price is firm; the supply side of butadiene is tight; on the negative side, the downstream synthetic rubber market is insufficient to follow up. Business Association butadiene analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will maintain a consolidation trend, focusing on market turnover.

On January 21, the closing price of methanol in Asia rose, with China concentrating $279-281 per ton on methanol CFR and $1 per ton on methanol CFR in Southeast Asia, $300-302 per ton on methanol CFR, rising by $1 per ton.

On January 21, the US Gulf acetone market closed at a stable price of US$738-762 per ton, FOB US Gulf.

Although the total import volume of isopropanol reached 37,000 tons in the first 11 months of 2018, with an average monthly import volume of 3391 tons, and the average import volume of isopropanol in the past three years basically maintained at the level of more than 3,000 tons, the change is not obvious, but the industry expects that in the long run, the import volume of isopropanol will continue to decrease, while China’s domestic production capacity of isopropanol is gradually surplus and is expected to reach full self-sufficiency. 。 “From the point of view of import countries, China’s import of isopropanol is mainly from offshore sources such as Taiwan, Korea, Singapore and Japan. Among them, Taiwan, China accounts for 69% of the total annual imports. “Zheng Mingnan, an information analyst at Zhongyu, said that the United States, Germany and the Netherlands dominate the ocean-going sector, but the number is very limited. The main reason for this phenomenon is that offshore cargo has certain advantages in both transportation distance and operation convenience.

It is noteworthy that the export of isopropanol has increased significantly. Reporters learned that the annual export of isopropanol in 2012 was only 3235 tons, and the export volume reached 85819 tons in the 11 months before 2018, an increase of 2552%. “As domestic production capacity continues to increase, excess capacity can only be adjusted by increasing exports. It is estimated that the annual export volume of isopropanol in 2018 will double that in 2017. “Zheng Mingnan said that in 2018, the price of acetone continued to fall, the cost line of acetone-based isopropanol was low, the export price of domestic isopropanol had absolute advantage, and more enterprises aimed at the export market.

From the point of view of exporting countries (regions), China’s isopropanol exports are relatively scattered, and India is the main exporter. “In the first 11 months of 2018, 38,000 tons of isopropanol were exported to India, equivalent to about 44% of the total in the first 11 months, followed by Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries. “Zheng Mingnan said.

Zheng Mingnan believes that isopropanol is in the situation of overcapacity, and there is no new growth point in downstream demand. It can only maintain its supply and demand on a reasonable lever through the adjustment of import and export. According to Zhongyu information, after the restart of China’s Dadi Soap, part of the focus will be on the export market. Kailing Zhangjiagang and Detian Shandong also have plans to make export orders. “At present, the domestic isopropanol production capacity has not been fully released, so the export side will remain the main direction, while the import side may still show a decreasing trend. “Zheng Mingnan said.

According to LME data, on January 17, 2019, the total stock of copper metal was 134,975 tonnes, a daily decrease of 50 tonnes; the total stock of aluminium metal was 1,304,000 tonnes, an increase of 850 tonnes per day; and the total stock of aluminium alloy was 10,220 tonnes, a decrease of 40 tonnes per day.

Atalaya Mining released its fourth quarter output data and 2019 output targets on January 15.

Its Spanish Proyecto Riotinto Copper Mine produced 11,172 tons of copper in the fourth quarter of 2018, up 29% from a year earlier, setting a new quarterly record again.

Proyecto Riotinto produced 42,114 tons of red metals in the whole year of 2018, exceeding the company’s target of 1,114 tons.

Overall, Proyecto Riotinto’s output this year is 13% higher than that of 37,164 tons in 2017.

Price Trend

Recent domestic butadiene market atmosphere is weak. As of January 14, the price of butadiene was 10 903 yuan/ton, up 12.77% from the same period last year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic butadiene market atmosphere is weak, northern manufacturers shipment is not smooth, the market fell, dragging downstream business mentality, and short-term bearish expectations lead to businessmen actively shipped, but downstream cautious wait-and-see mood is obvious. The market atmosphere of butadiene in Shandong is not good, shipments of Northeast manufacturers are not smooth, and downstream cautious wait-and-see mentality is obvious, dragging the market of butadiene, the offer has fallen. East China butadiene market atmosphere is weak, downstream merchants cautious wait-and-see mood is obvious, downstream offer intention is not good, market offer is lower. Asian closing price of butadiene, FOB Korea average offer $1130-1138 per ton; CFR China average offer $1195-1203 per ton.

Industry Chain: Styrene Butadiene Rubber: Although Tianguo rebounded, but the impact of supplier growth is less than expected and time is late began to reflect, and because demand has weakened, the market of Styrene Butadiene Rubber shows shocks, the actual transaction price has been loosened, trading flat. Cis-butadiene rubber: domestic cis-butadiene rubber market high shock market. Although the offer is stable, the inquiry atmosphere on the spot is cold, some of the businessmen let the profit to deliver the goods, and the bargaining price center is lowered, and the volume of delivery is scarce. SBS: Oil glue prices in domestic SBS market have been pushed up, and dry rubber road has been changed to price finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external price is firm, butadiene supply side is tight; on the negative side, the downstream synthetic rubber market is insufficient to follow up. Business community butadiene analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market continues to be weak, focusing on market turnover.

1.Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market as a whole fell sharply this week, with the average price of acetic acid in eastern China dropping to about 3,283 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 3,100 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 5.58%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2800-2850/ton; in Shandong is about 2950-3150 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 3150-3200 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2700 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 2950-3050 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3100-3250 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton, which is 32.12% lower than that in the same period last year.

2. Cause Analysis

Products: Affected by the downstream market demand of acetate and vinyl acetate, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline, and enterprises delivered more profits. Due to the strong performance of the upstream methanol market and other factors such as pre-stocking, the acetic acid market gradually stabilized over the weekend; the 1.2 million tons/year plant of Nanjing Celanese has not been fully restored, and the 500,000 tons/year plant of Nanjing Yangtze is still under repair. The internal start-up rate fell last week, with the overall stock of about 80%.

Industry chain: In the upstream, methanol market is tidying up at a high level, with good turnover in Northwest China and strong market; goods in Bohai Rim and Central China are still moving well and rising steadily; trade in Huaihai is turning better and rising slightly; futures are tidying up, and the port market is going up accordingly, with methanol prices rising by 3.97% in a week, and the current price of methanol is about 2306 yuan/ton, down by 33.7% compared with the same period last year; vinegar this week. The overall performance of the acid downstream industry is sluggish, and the demand for acetic acid is not good. Traders are cautious in purchasing and take a wait-and-see attitude.

International: This week, the North American acetic acid market quoted a steady price of 640 US dollars per ton; Asian acetic acid market affected by the downturn in demand, continued to fall within a week, the current quotation is 380-445 US dollars per ton; European acetic acid market prices stabilized in the week around 780 Euro/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, as the 1.2 million ton/year Celanese plant is about to restart, the supply of the industry will gradually increase, but the downstream market performance continues to be weak, and near the end of recent years, the intention of enterprises to drain warehouses is high, and there is no good support at the export side.

One: price trend

According to the price monitoring business community, as of January 9th, the domestic polymerization MDI market price at 11700 yuan / ton, the overall market prices continue upward, prices fell 58.19% over the same period last year.

Two, market analysis

Products: domestic polymerization MDI market continued upward. North China, East China Wanhua goods negotiations 12000-12200 yuan / ton, Shanghai goods about 11800 yuan / ton; Southern China Wanhua goods about 12200 yuan / ton, about 12000 yuan / ton goods in Shanghai. The spot market very tight, middlemen so cheap sellers, prices, market inquiry atmosphere is slightly weakened yesterday.

The North China market, MDI market offer a small amount of polymerization continues to shift. Most of the factory goods volume, the spot market tensions, downstream and middlemen enthusiasm stockpile is strong, the northern market trading atmosphere is. Because the stock is scarce, individual brokers sell wait-and-see, sporadic offer continue to narrow up. East China MDI market narrow shift polymerization. The factory goods volume, middleman delivery of pre sale orders, hands spot limited, cheap sellers, sporadic offer narrow upward. Southern China MDI polymerization spot market shortage, the middle daily dish is scarce, at present middleman positions, sporadic offer higher prices.

Industrial chain: raw materials, domestic aniline to discuss the market stability. Raw material benzene prices, the aniline profit fell to the cost line, factory shipments smoothly, improve the outlook or offer price. Shandong is expected to increase 100 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton in East china. The main reference price in Shandong and North China to 5140 yuan / ton acceptance; East China mainstream market reference price 5200-5400 yuan / ton acceptance factory.

Three, market forecast

Good, the plant is still in repair; individual enterprises control the amount of supply, the spot market is less. Bad, weak end demand; price increases downstream and middlemen stockpile enthusiasm weakened. Business agency aggregated MDI analysts expect short-term market consolidation high polymerization MDI.

Ethylene supply in Asian market is expected to be more abundant in 2019 due to the reduction in the number of cracking units planned for shutdown and maintenance in Japan, the expansion of cracking capacity in Asia and the reduction in the start-up rate of downstream ethylene plants.

The supply prospects of ethylene cargo for ocean-going vessels in the Asian market are mixed in 2019. Exports from Europe may be limited by a series of cracking plant shutdowns and overhauls, while exports from the United States may increase with the launch of new export facilities in the fourth quarter.

By the end of 2018, ethylene spot prices in Northeast Asia were weak. The trading price in the fourth quarter of 2018 was less than $1,000 per ton (CFR Northeast Asia), much lower than the $1,200-1,400 per ton (CFR Northeast Asia) in January-September 2018.