According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market was first restrained and then increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2,420 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, it was 2,360 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 2.48%, 14.42% compared with the same period last year.
II. Market Analysis
Product: This week’s domestic methanol market first restrained and then rose: North China methanol market first fell and then rose, the overall turnover is general. Southwest methanol market fluctuation downward, the first half of the factory price generally reduced by 30-80 yuan/ton, with sudden maintenance concentration, futures up and some olefin units put into operation and many other good incentives, midweek operators actively replenish, downstream steady cooperation, Chengdu and Chongqing market focus to maintain the interval consolidation situation, Guangxi direction declines relatively large, overall rigidity is obvious. Methanol fell this week. Mainstream prices in Inner Mongolia fell by 80 yuan/ton to 2150 yuan/ton this week. Local mainstream manufacturers weakened in the first half of the week, shipments improved in the second half of the week, some factories stopped selling, local spring overhaul started one after another, and Mongolian Jiutai olefins were put into production this week, which is good support for the local market.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: formaldehyde market continues to operate steadily. The upstream methanol market has risen narrowly, the cost has formed a certain support in the face of the market, the downstream market demand has increased slightly in the near future, the market turnover is better than the earlier period, and the transaction price is stable. Acetic acid: Part of the domestic acetic acid market is exploring. Affected by the parking of alkali and the maintenance of other manufacturers, the overall start-up of domestic acetic acid plants is low, and some recent export orders have been executed one after another, which gives the suppliers confidence to report a rise. However, the domestic overall social stock is still sufficient, and the downstream acetic acid market is difficult under the condition of rational purchasing and no enthusiasm for backup and insufficient demand support. Continued to rise. Dimethyl ether: The price of dimethyl ether rose steadily and moderately, and the trading atmosphere slightly weakened. After the news of restart of Hebi dimethyl ether plant was released, the mentality of the neighbouring traders returned to wait and see, and the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to receive goods was general. Prices in Sichuan and Chongqing are relatively stable. Manufacturers produce in quantity and replenish goods on demand downstream.
3. Future Market Forecast
Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, the Spring Festival overhaul plan has been announced one after another, and the domestic methanol plant overhaul is concentrated; in addition, the overhaul in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, the United States and other places has increased; the MTO trial production in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, on March 20, will significantly reduce the circulation of commodities in Inner Mongolia; after the end of the two sessions, formaldehyde plants in Hebei and Shandong will be restored one after another, and start to upgrade. On the negative side, after spring, methanol continued to rise, downstream conflicting sentiment highlighted, and some terminal cost transmission was not smooth; in particular, the port olefins approached the profit and loss margin; after the northern heating season, the methanol plant from natural gas resumed and the market supply increased. Business methanol analysts expect that, although the downstream of methanol prices continue to rise, but the methanol spot circulation is not much, and spring overhaul has been launched, so the methanol market should not be too pessimistic, under the influence of downstream phased replenishment, the market will stop falling next week, with a small upward trend in some markets.