According to the monitoring data of business associations, the trend of caustic soda is not good. As of April 10, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong market was about 696.67 yuan/ton. At present, the ex-factory price of 32% ionic soda has dropped to 630 yuan/ton. On April 9, the caustic soda commodity index was 106.47, which was the same as yesterday. It was 48.53% lower than the peak of 206.87 points in the cycle (2017-11-14), and 45.31% higher than the low of 73.27 points on March 29, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)
II. Market Analysis
Product: The price of caustic soda is running weakly this week. Domestic caustic soda market performance is unsatisfactory, most of the main domestic production areas have a certain downward trend in market prices, market trading atmosphere is relatively low, market participants are more bearish on the market. Influenced by the continued decline in ex-factory prices, the domestic liquid alkali market is not performing well. Demand for underground water in Guangdong and Shandong is weak, and the shipment situation of traders is not satisfactory. At present, 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is sold at 670-710 yuan/ton in Shandong market, 900-960 yuan/ton in Guangdong market and 700-850 yuan/ton in Hebei market.
Industry chain: Recently, the price of liquid chlorine has been raised, especially in Shandong. It receives the support from the main Liaocheng plant and some chlor-alkali plants in Southwest Shandong. The market of liquid chlorine in Shandong has risen sharply. At present, the turnover in the mainstream areas of Shandong is 500-700 yuan/ton. The demand in other areas is not good and the price is weak. Recently, the price of PVC continues to rise, coupled with the good performance of liquid chlorine market, caustic soda still has a certain profit margin, supporting caustic soda manufacturers to start work to maintain a high level. However, downstream industries such as alumina have limited demand changes and lower willingness to receive goods downstream. Caustic soda prices entangled to maintain a weak operating market.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 13th week of 2019 (4.1-4.5), the price of chlor-alkali industry rose or fell by two kinds of commodities, fell by two kinds of commodities, and rose or fell by 0 kinds of commodities. The main commodities rising were PVC (2.02%) and calcium carbide (0.80%); the main commodities falling were light soda (-1.36%) and caustic soda (-1.32%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.
Business analysts believe that: the caustic soda market downstream demand situation is general, the market lacks substantive good support, the speed of enterprise goods slowed down, sales are not ideal. Domestic caustic soda market is good and scarce in fundamentals. Short-term market prices or maintain a weak market, specifically looking at the downstream market demand.