LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) – Zinc futures jumped to a seven-month high on Tuesday, helped by a shortage of supply, reduced inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and expected strong demand from China.

The LME index closed 3.7% higher at $2,838 per ton in three-month period, hitting a peak of $2,840 since July 3.

Zinc has risen by about 15% so far this year.

Miners have begun to increase production of zinc concentrates, but production is insufficient to meet demand, pushing zinc stocks in LME warehouses to their lowest level in more than 10 years, and boosting the water uptake of spot zinc in recent months.

“The supply of refined zinc is still very, very tight,” said Marcus Garvey, an analyst at ICBC Standard Bank. “It may not be until next year that the situation of excess supply of refined zinc will recur.”

He also said that the recent increase in the issuance of loans and local government bonds in China indicated that demand for metals would remain stable throughout the year.

LME zinc inventory fell to 59.2 million tons, the lowest since October 2007. Between 50% and 79% of warehouse receipts are held by an entity, and about a quarter of them have been cancelled.

Spot zinc rose sharply to a two-month high of $49.50 over the three-month period, reflecting the short-term supply shortage of LME.

The International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) said on Monday that the global zinc shortage narrowed to 28,000 tons in January from 62,400 tons revised in December.

LME copper ended up 1% at $6,472 a tonne, close to a seven-month high of $6,540 hit on February 25.

The dollar weakened for the third consecutive day, making metal prices cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, helping to boost metal prices.

Futures aluminium closed up 1.4% at $1,873 per ton.

Nickel rose 1.6% to $13,100 per ton.

Lead rose 0.5% to $2,085 per ton.

Tin jumped 1.3% to $21,325 a ton.

Price data

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic sulfur market price was temporarily stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic granular sulfur ex-factory price was about 103.33 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average domestic granular sulfur ex-factory price was about 103.33 yuan/ton. The price was stable during the week, down 1.88% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the sulphur market performance is flat, terminal enterprises have low interest in purchasing, and lack of information guidance on the site, the atmosphere of negotiations is light. Domestic refineries in various regions operate smoothly, the performance of supply and demand is not obvious, the operators are more cautious to negotiate, the market is mainly based on consumption inventory, the price has not changed significantly. As of 8 th, the price of sulphur in Shandong area of Sinopec is stable, the mainstream price of solid sulphur is 1130-1170 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of liquid sulphur is 160-1120 yuan/ton; the price of sulphur in North China of Sinopec is stable, and the mainstream price of solid sulphur is The price is 940-1080 yuan/ton and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 960-1100 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The downstream sulphuric acid market is stable and small, and the market price is flexible. At the beginning of the week, the price is 393.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the price is 386.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price of bromine declines by 1.69%. This week, the market price of bromine is stable, with a price of 35000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a price of 35000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week.

3. Future Market Forecast

Sulphur analysts from the business cooperative chemical branch believe that from the current market, there is no news guide, downstream buyers with insufficient documentation mainly to consume, limited demand, short-term view of the sulfur market narrow consolidation.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of March 6, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5383 yuan/ton, and the domestic ethanol market was mainly stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The ethanol market continues to rise in some parts of the northern market, the willingness of enterprises to pull up is more obvious, the inventory of enterprises is not high, the Northeast region carries out more contract orders, the downstream chemical purchasing is stable, the quotation of enterprises in South China is stable, and the downstream basically maintains the state of just need.

Industry Chain: Maize: Maize supply is sufficient and the market demand for farming is still recovering. In theory, the price of maize will continue to fall. Ethyl acetate: The domestic market of ethyl acetate is weak. Under the trend of continuous decline of suppliers in Shandong Province, the downstream market is colder for ethyl acetate purchase, and under the weakness of acetic acid, the cost and demand of ethyl acetate are double negative, and the market is obviously weak. Affected by the weakness of North China and East China, the downstream market is continuing to wait and see for ethyl acetate, and the market weakness gradually becomes clear under the blocked transaction.

3. Future Market Forecast

The possibility of sustained growth in some parts of the ethanol market. Low inventory in Northeast China will continue, export orders will continue, and chemical demand will be stable. Ethanol analysts from business associations predict that the domestic ethanol market will show a regional trend in the near future.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of March 4, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 14925 yuan/ton, and the overall market was in high order, with consumption rising mainly.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregated MDI market high-end finishing, no market at a price. The intra-venue TRADERS’offer remains high and stable, while the downstream prices are high and conflicting, with very few transactions. Next week, the manufacturer will control the quantity of shipment. Traders expect the offer to remain high and wait and see the transaction. In the short run, if the trading trend is good, the price will continue to be high, and if the trading weakness continues, the price is expected to have a downward trend.

On the market side, the aggregate MDI market in North China is deadlocked. Market news is chaotic, the mentality of middlemen is divergent, some traders profit-making offer delivery, the market is mainly real single negotiation, downstream just need to follow up caution, high market trading is not smooth. Individual supply quotations in East China Polymerization MDI market moved up. In the first week of March, Wanhua controlled the volume of goods released, and some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices. However, downstream demand was weak and market inquiry atmosphere was not good. South China Polymerization MDI market consolidation operation. The downstream market just needs weak, the market follow-up is insufficient, the middleman is cautious about the future, stable price delivery is the main.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: East China pure benzene market buying and selling prices rose. At present, the spot purchase price is 4950 yuan/ton and the sale price is 5000 yuan/ton. In March, we bought 4970 yuan/ton and sold 5020 yuan/ton. In April, we bought 4990 yuan/ton and sold 5050 yuan/ton. Aniline: Aniline market is stable. Some rubber additives enterprises in Henan and Hebei are limited by environmental protection, and their demand for aniline is general, while there is no obvious impact in other areas. Factory shipment is acceptable, Shandong mainstream negotiation price refers to 5900-6000 yuan/ton spot, 6040-6140 yuan/ton acceptance. East China is dominated by ship cargo and contract customers, with a small amount of shipments in the market. Mainstream negotiations in East China are about acceptance of 6500-6600 yuan/ton. A small amount of low-end 6400 yuan/ton price is heard to exist.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: On the positive side, the latest prices of many enterprises have increased broadly; some businesses are positively bullish. On the short side, there are many stockpiles in the downstream in the early stage, and the purchasing is limited; the downstream just needs to recover slowly. Analysts of business associations aggregated MDI expect the aggregated MDI market to remain stable and wait-and-see.

On February 27, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 67.80, up 0.65 points from yesterday, down 43.56% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 40.02% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

In recent years, domestic phthalic anhydride market price fluctuation, weak consolidation of phthalic anhydride market in eastern China, downstream factories maintaining just needed procurement, factory inventory pressure continued, high-end transactions were blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations was 6800-7000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations was 6700 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 6850-7000 yuan/ton, and the market weakness shocks as follows: Main, the quotation trend of enterprises is temporarily stable, downstream construction is not high, purchase on demand is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, phthalic anhydride price trend is temporarily stable.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6800 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of the upstream product is 7100 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable, the stock of the port is at a low level, the actual transaction price of the port is slightly higher, the price of o-phthalic anhydride is rising, the cost of imported o-phthalic phthalic anhydride is rising, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, DOP prices downstream slightly lower, in the recent Zhejiang DOP market, merchants quoted prices maintained at 8525-8700 yuan/ton out of warehouse, downstream prices slightly lower, for the upstream demand for phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price shocks mainly, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain about 7000 yuan/ton.

On February 25, the PX commodity index was 70.20, which was the same as yesterday. It was 31.45% lower than the cyclical peak of 102.40 points (2013-02-28), and 54.12% higher than the lowest point of 45.55 on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has been restarted. Other plants have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On February 25, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by US$1/ton. The closing price is US$109-1100/ton FOB Korea and US$117-1119/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The domestic market price maintains 8,800 yuan/ton.

On February 25, the price of WTI crude oil in April fell sharply to $55.45 per barrel, with a decline of $1.78. The price of Brent crude oil in April dropped sharply to $64.76 per barrel, with a decline of $2.36. The price of crude oil fell sharply, losing some support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene Market was stable. Recently, the textile industry has declined, PTA prices shocked on the 26th. The average offer price in East China was raised near 6400-6550 yuan/ton. As of the 25th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 80%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 77%. In addition, the guerrilla production and sales rate was low. The PTA market price shocks, and the price of PX market is expected to rise slightly in the later period.

According to data released by Iranian Customs on Wednesday, three months later, China overtook Iraq to become the first destination country for Iranian non-oil exports and consolidated its export status to Iran, the Iranian Financial Tribune reported on January 30. In the first ten months of the Iraqi calendar (March 21, 2018 – January 20, 2019), Iran’s non-oil exports to China amounted to $7.52 billion, an increase of 5.24% over the same period last year, accounting for 20.7% of Iran’s non-oil exports. Iraq followed, with Iran exporting $7.51 billion in non-oil commodities to Iraq in the first 10 months of the Iraqi calendar. In the first ten months of the Iraqi calendar, Iran’s top five import countries were China ($8.9 billion), the United Arab Emirates ($5.45 billion), Turkey ($2.03 billion), Germany ($2.01 billion) and India ($1.92 billion).

On February 12, the fluorite commodity index was 123.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 3.12% lower than the cyclical peak of 127.49 points (2019-01-03), and 150.99% higher than the lowest point of 49.21 on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, up to the 13th day, the average domestic fluorite price is 3510 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of strict environmental protection inspection, some domestic fluorite plants have recently stopped, mines and flotation plants have stopped and repaired, and the supply of fluorite in the field has been relatively reduced, but the recent downstream market is not good, and the price of fluorite market has slightly declined. In addition to the low temperature, the low start-up rate of fluorite flotation units in the North has aggravated the shortage of domestic fluorite supply. In the southern fluorite market, the start-up of fluorite flotation units has also been reduced, and the supply of fluorite in the field is tight, but the downstream terminal receipt is not active, resulting in a temporary stabilization of market prices. As of the 13th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 3200-3600 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 3400-3700 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 3300-3600 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3200-3600 yuan/ton. The price of fluorite remained stable.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite declined. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12 291.67 yuan/ton as of the 13th day, while the market price of hydrofluoric acid slightly declined. In addition, the upstream refrigerant products have more maintenance devices, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market has declined, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products has slightly declined. Recent market of refrigerant downstream terminal market is cool, R22 refrigerant plant surface starts at 70%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly with a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a is slightly lower, the start-up rate of production enterprises is lower, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the impact of equipment maintenance, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened. Generally speaking, there are many downstream negative factors, but because of the poor start-up of fluorite market devices, fluorite prices remain at a high level. However, since most enterprises have been on holiday in recent years, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market prices may remain stable temporarily.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc price shocks remained stable in January. As of January 31, the price of zinc ingot was 22250.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00 yuan/ton, or 0.41 percent, from 22160.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In January, the zinc market struggled and zinc price shocks adjusted.

II. Market Trend Analysis

In terms of products:

In January, the price of zinc ingot in LME market rose sharply. As of January 31, the closing price of zinc in London LME market was 2724 US dollars/ton, which was 265 US dollars/ton higher than the opening price of zinc at the beginning of the month. The price of zinc in London LME market rose sharply, and the stock of zinc in futures fell sharply. As of January 31, the stock of zinc in London LME market was 113425 tons, which was 129 000 tons higher than that in the beginning of the month. Decreased inventories are good for the zinc market.

On January 31, the closing price of zinc futures in Shanghai futures market was 22,320 yuan/ton, which was 21,205 yuan/ton compared with the opening price at the beginning of the month. The price fluctuation of zinc futures rose by 1115 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of zinc futures rose in January, which had a positive impact on the spot zinc market. In January, the zinc futures inventory in Shanghai futures market increased substantially. As of January 31, the zinc futures inventory was 3339 tons, 881 tons higher than that in the initial month. Increase in the zinc market has a negative effect.

data statistics

China’s output of refined zinc (electrolytic zinc) in December 2018 was 2% to 509,000 tons lower than last month, down 1.7% from the same period last month, and the total output in 2018 was 5681,000 tons, down 3.2% from the same period last month, according to data released Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics. The production of zinc ingot in China is decreasing, which is good for the market of zinc.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with business associations, believes that the global macroeconomic environment for the new year is not optimistic as the new year approaches. The global macroeconomic environment has warmed up, but the overall market performance is general. The zinc futures market has risen slightly, which is good for the spot zinc, but the overall zinc market is stable. On the demand side, the domestic zinc market is facing the stock of spring festival, which is good for the spot market of zinc. On the supply side, the supply of domestic zinc city will decrease in December 2018, which is good for zinc city. With the coming of spring festival, the quotation enterprises in the spot market are limited, the supply of zinc ingots in the market is limited, and the supply of zinc ingots in the market is better. Domestic zinc market has good stimulation in both supply and demand. In addition to the good stimulation of international zinc market, domestic zinc market has a small rise peak in the short term. However, in the long run, the global economic rebound in 2019 is not optimistic. The macro-economy has limited positive effect on zinc market, the rebound of zinc market is insufficient, and the space for zinc price to rise is limited. There is still room for zinc price to rise in February, but the trend of increase or maintain a low level. Bit, zinc ingot price or fluctuation adjustment between 2000 and 23500.

On Jan. 28, the closing price of methanol in Europe and the United States fell, with methanol FOB in the United States Gulf falling by 95.75-96.25 cents/gallon and 25 cents/gallon, while methanol FOB in Rotterdam, Europe, fell by 265.5-266.5 euros/ton and 3 euros/ton.