Silicone DMC rose by 28% after touching the bottom. Can Silicon Metal Relay in August?

A Survey of the Price Trend of Silicon Metal (441) in August


According to data from business associations, the average market price of metal silicon (441) as of August 23 was 11,100 yuan/ton, which was 4.39% higher than the average market price of 10,633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In August, the price of Silicon City has greatly improved compared with the previous downturn.

Business statistics show that in 2019, the lowest average price of metal silicon (441 #) appeared on July 26, with an average price of 10 633.33 yuan/ton, a decline of 12.66% compared with the market average price of 12 175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; the peak price of 12 2225 yuan/ton (March 4), an increase of 0.41% compared with the beginning of the year; and the amplitude of the current year is 13.05%.

Since mid-March, the price of metal silicon (441) has shown a downward trend as a whole. The market trend of metal silicon commodity index is as follows:
According to historical data, the metal silicon commodity index on August 22 was 76.74, up 0.46 points from yesterday, down 28.56% from 107.42 points in the cycle (2017-09-12), and up 11.59% from 68.77 points on September 25, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

The price of 441# silicon in different regions on 23rd is as follows:

The price range of # metal silicon in Fujian is 10,600-10,800 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Sichuan is 10,900-11,100 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Kunming is 10,800-10,900 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Shanghai is 11,700-11,900 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Tianjin Port is 11,000-11,200 yuan/ton, and Huangpu is 1,000 yuan/ton. The price range of metal silicon in Hong Kong is 11,100-11,200 yuan/ton.

A Survey of Three Downstream Data of Aluminum Alloy, Silicone and Polycrystalline Silicon

1. The total output of aluminium alloy declined slightly from January to July, and the export situation was good.

According to the latest data updated on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of aluminium alloy in July was 8.28 million tons, a decrease of 4.1% compared with the same period last year; the total output in January-July was 5.359 million tons, a decrease of 1.2% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of import and export, according to the data of China Customs, the export volume of aluminium alloy in June 2019 was about 51,000 tons, an increase of about 10.1% annually, and an increase of about 12.8% year on year. In the first half of this year, China’s aluminium alloy exports totaled about 280,000 tons, an increase of about 14.4% over the same period last year.

2. Silicone DMC prices bottomed out in mid-June and have risen by 28.31% so far.

According to data from business associations, the comprehensive average price of organosilicon DMC in China on August 23 was 21 000 yuan/ton, up 28.31% from the market average of 16 366.67 yuan/ton on June 14.
Obviously, when the downstream silicone DMC started to rise in mid-June, the overall market of silicon was weak, as was the low-grade metal silicon (441).

Price Trend of Metal Silicon-Organosilicon DMC

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The DMC commodity price ratio index of metal silicon and organic silicon on August 22 was 67.49, up 0.41 points from yesterday, down 37.49% from the peak of 107.97 points in the cycle (2015-02-10), and up 4.44% from the low of 64.62 points on April 18, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2012-01-01 to present)

3. Polycrystalline silicon falls and falls continuously. High-grade silicon bears great pressure.
It is reported that the domestic polycrystalline silicon market is at a stable bottom, the price is beginning to show a trend of stop-fall, the market atmosphere is still acceptable, at present, the manufacturers’equipment maintenance is not much, and the market supply is stable.

Improvement of Supply and Demand in August in Silicon City

Supply side: The start-up rate of silicon plants in Sichuan-Yunnan region has reached a relatively high level in the whole year, but it is about 3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The repair capacity of some manufacturers in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and other regions is expected to resume in the middle and late August, and the start-up rate in the north will be slightly increased. Influenced by the weak market of falling silicon prices in the early period, some high-cost production capacity has been cleared out of the market. In July, the start-up rate of silicon enterprises decreased by 7-8 points compared with the same period last year.

Demand side: In August, the domestic and foreign trade orders were released centrally, the sufficient inventory of the northern large factories was reduced, the price of Silicon City was stabilizing and rising as a whole, and the market popularity was warming up. Some people believe that after a long downward trend, the price has now tended to the bottom of the market, and some TRADERS’market confidence has rebounded, and there is room for the downward trend. In anticipation of the limitation, some domestic downstream enterprises changed their weekly and scattered purchasing to monthly bidding, and the volume of centralized purchasing orders increased.

The market of low-grade silicon is expected to be good in the future

Since the end of July, traders and downstream purchases have been active, factory stocks have been greatly reduced, low-grade silicon is affected by supply and demand factors, and the quotation of low-grade silicon is constantly raised, and low-price supply is difficult to find. It is expected that the price of metal silicon (553, 441) will run strongly in the near future, and the market will wait and see the downstream demand changes.

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