The domestic BDO market is stagnant. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the weekend was 9360 yuan/ton, rising by 1.74% annually, and falling by 18.30% compared with the same period last year.
II. Market Analysis
Product: This week domestic BDO market supply and demand game, talk about saw. Over the weekend, Tianhua and Shaanxi have restarted the replacement catalyst, Dongyuan is still under repair, other units started stable, the start-up load has increased compared with last week, the supply side is generally good support. Downstream PBT start-up rate has rebounded, demand has increased slightly, other downstream demand is still general, long-term delivery, spot market just need small single replenishment warehouse, large single negotiations rarely heard. And hearing about the new capacity test has a certain negative impact on the mindset of the operators. In the absence of clear information in the market, the industry’s mentality of stabilizing the market is dominant. In terms of price, the mainstream price in the East China market is 8600-9000 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week. The domestic BDO market started at 54% this week, with a weekly output of about 22535 tons.
In terms of installation, this week, 110,000 tons/year BDO plant in Kaixiang, Henan Province, stopped for safety investigation on July 19 due to the explosion of Yima, and the restart time is uncertain for a while; 25,000 tons/year in Tianhua, Sichuan Province, and 60,000 tons/year in Tianye, Sichuan Province, restarted and operated normally on August 18; and 210,000 tons/year BDO plant in Tianye, Xinjiang, except for the normal operation of the first phase, its restart time is uncertain. His installation has not been restarted yet; Dongyuan 100,000 tons/year plant in Inner Mongolia stopped for maintenance on August 13, and is expected to be around 25 days.
On the market side, as of Friday (8.23), the BDO market in East China was in a dilemma. The factory starts smoothly, the supply side supports generally, the downstream demand has not improved, some industries have negative expectations, the mindset of the business is stable, the focus is stable. The weak market of BDO in South China shocks. Market supply is still acceptable, downstream demand continues to be depressed, just need to pick up goods, and there are new production capacity test news shocks the market, the industry stable offer.
Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, domestic calcium carbide market fell this week, production enterprises shipped actively, with the recovery of downstream maintenance devices in recent days, increased demand, inventory pressure gradually weakened, low-cost supply decreased. But the downstream purchasing enterprises have regional uneven arrival. The arrival of carbide has increased in Shaanxi, North China and Henan. Enterprises plan to continue to reduce the purchase price of calcium carbide. However, in some areas of Shandong, due to the impact of early rainfall and road security inspection, the arrival of calcium carbide is tense and the purchase price is on the high side. Recently, due to the influence of geological disasters such as debris flow, the supply of calcium carbide in some enterprises in Sichuan is insufficient, which affects the start-up of downstream PVC plants, and enterprises actively purchase outside Sichuan, but the start-up is still low. On the upstream side, the lowering of raw coal prices led to insufficient support for the cost of Lanzhou charcoal, and the price of Lanzhou charcoal fell. And recently released documents to strengthen the management and control of limestone mining, aggravating market wait-and-see. It is expected that due to the maintenance of self-provided calcium carbide PVC enterprises in Northwest China starting next week, the export volume of calcium carbide will be increased, the supply of calcium carbide will increase, and the market of calcium carbide will continue to decline mainly, with a reduction of 50 yuan/ton.
Methanol: This week, due to the restart of enterprises such as Datang, Rongxin, Xianyang and Weihua, the supply increment in the region is obvious. In addition, the downstream stocks are mostly kept at a high level, and traders are cautious about receiving goods, which led to the decline of methanol prices in Northwest China. Mainstream prices in Inner Mongolia fell from 1800 yuan/ton to 1605 yuan/ton this week, down 10.83% annually, while those in Guanzhong fell from 2000 to 1900 yuan/ton, down 5% annually. At present, port stocks remain high, futures market is weak, downstream and traders are short of the future market, so methanol market is still expected to fall next week.
On the downstream side, PBT: Kaixiang, Henan, stopped on May 30 without a restart plan; Nantong Star stopped on July 10 for overhaul and restarted on August 16; Tunhe plant stopped on August 9 for about a month; Kanghui Petrochemical Company operated on two lines with a load of about 60%; Wuxi Xingsheng Load was about 60%.
3. Future Market Forecast
This week, part of the overhaul plant started, the overall market start-up load has increased, the supply side is generally good support. Nantong Star PBT has been restarted, the demand has increased slightly, other downstream demand has not improved significantly compared with the previous period, just need to replenish warehouse. And the new capacity releases news constantly, although no products are produced, but it has a negative impact on the market with the most short profits. Business BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to run deadlocked next week, focusing more on device dynamics and downstream demand changes.