According to the monitoring of business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the month was 2163 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 2850 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 31.74% and a price increase of 111.63% over the same period last year. Coking coal prices are running at a high level.

On August 30, the coking coal commodity index was 210.33, the same as yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 368.34% from the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

According to the business agency, the main reason for the coking coal price in August is the supply. The coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future, and the coal in the producing area has increased recently. However, affected by the environmental protection inspection, the coking coal supply in the main producing area is still tight, and the contradiction between coking coal supply and demand still exists.

Demand: in August 2021, the coke market experienced seven rounds of increase, with a cumulative increase of 840 yuan / ton. Up to now, the mainstream market price in Shanxi is 2496 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 3318 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 32.93%. The downstream has a good demand for coke: this month, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not reduced, the storage is increased actively, the demand for coke is well supported, the steel plant purchasing enthusiasm is improved, the demand for replenishment is high, and the demand for coke is well supported. As of August 27, the national stocks of thread, wire rod, hot rolling, cold rolling and medium plate were 7990900 tons, 1615700 tons, 2931900 tons, 1182300 tons and 1248000 tons respectively. The inventory of the five major domestic steel varieties decreased to a certain extent this month, among which the inventory of rebar decreased the most.

According to the coking coal analyst of business society, coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future, and the coal in the producing area has increased recently. However, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the supply of coking coal in the main producing area is still relatively tight, and the contradiction between coking coal supply and demand still exists; In terms of downstream coke, the coke price is relatively strong. Under the current environment of slight shortage of supply and good demand, it is expected that the coke market will continue to maintain stable, medium and strong operation in the short term, and coke still has a strong demand for coke coal. Overall, the price of coking coal in the later stage still maintained a strong trend.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of August 30, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7400 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 7100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 300 yuan / ton, or 4.23%.

In the first ten days of August, the domestic n-propanol market showed a stable performance. For the stability maintenance of new units of large n-propanol plants in Shandong, the early quotation was around 6400 yuan / ton. The secondary market price has also been stable, low up and high down, and the overall market fluctuation is small.

Since the middle of August, the market of n-propanol in Shandong has increased slightly, the demand of n-propanol factories has followed up well, and the offer price has risen steadily. On August 20, the ex factory quotation of n-propanol in Shandong was around 6700-6850 yuan / ton (apron), an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. The market of n-propanol in Nanjing is stable, Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. the n-propanol unit operates normally, and the ex factory quotation of n-propanol refers to 8500 yuan / ton (apron).

In late August, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole maintained a stable consolidation operation. Downstream users just needed to purchase. The n-propanol market was stable and the on-site inventory was normal. As of August 30, the average ex factory price of domestic n-propanol was 7400 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 4.23% compared with the beginning of August.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external ethylene market first rose sharply in August, and then continued to decline after rising to a high level. After falling to the same price as that at the beginning of the month at the end of the month, it was shaken and consolidated, and the highest price was US $1153 / ton. Ethylene market prices in Asia continued to rise. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $961-971 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $956-966 / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 27th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1184-1195 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1130-1138 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated and rose. As of the 27th, the price was 828-846 US dollars / ton. In August, the external ethylene market should be said to be stable after fluctuation, and the price generally returned to the beginning of the month. On August 29, hurricane IDA made landfall along the coast of Louisiana. Affected by this, some chemical plants were shut down or operated at low load, and the supply of ethylene in the United States is expected to be in short supply. In August, the external price of ethylene rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of ethylene was US $1062.00/t, and at the end of the month, the average price of ethylene was US $1062.75/t, an increase of 0.07%.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the demand side of n-propanol is normal, and the domestic n-propanol factories are under normal operation. According to the analysts of business society, the domestic n-propanol market trend in the short term will mainly focus on the stable consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

The quotations of major manufacturers increased, the domestic aggregate MDI market recovered slowly, and traders were bullish. Wanhua controls goods, which helps the bullish atmosphere of the whole market.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from August 20 to 27, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI increased from 18575 yuan / ton to 18825 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.35% in the cycle, a month on month decrease of 5.64% and a year-on-year increase of 29.16%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of August 27:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong 18800-19000 yuan / ton 18300-18500 yuan / ton

East China 18800 yuan / ton 18400-18600 yuan / ton

South China About 18800 yuan / ton 18300-18400 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of August 27:

The main driving force of this week’s rise is that Yantai Wanhua new buy it now price remains stable and limited supply; The mentality of the industry was boosted, and there were fewer shipments at low prices in the market. In addition, the weekly price of Shanghai Kesi Chuang also increased, with less volume. However, with the operators gradually showing resistance to high prices and transaction difficulties, coupled with the new moon listing price announced by the main factories, the downstream is mainly on the sidelines.

In terms of enterprises, the MDI unit (300000 t / a) of Hungary boside chemical company, a subsidiary of Wanhua chemical, began to be shut down for maintenance on August 17, 2021, and the maintenance is expected to take about 50 days; The overhaul will carry out technical transformation of MDI unit. It is expected that after the completion of technical transformation, the production capacity of MDI unit will be increased to 350000 T / A.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is dominated by narrow consolidation.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of EVA in the domestic market was 17966.67 yuan / ton on August 15 and 18466.67 yuan / ton on August 20, with an increase of 2.78% during the week and 3.55% compared with August 1. This week, the price continued to rise due to the favorable situation of less goods in the market.

As of August 20, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 18500 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 17600 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2045 17000 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 19300 yuan / ton

At present, the spot is still tight and has not improved. The market is obviously favorable. This week, the EVA market continues to rise, the upstream petrochemical enterprises continue to raise the ex factory price, the cost support is obvious, there are few sources of goods for auction, and the auction price continues to rise. At present, the price of soft materials is around 21500-22500 yuan / ton, and that of hard materials is around 19300-20500 yuan / ton.

In the ethylene market, the external ethylene market has shown an overall downward trend recently. The price of ethylene in Asia remained stable. As of the 19th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $926-936 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $961-971 / ton. The price of ethylene in the European market fell sharply. As of the 19th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1297-1305 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1167-1175 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fell violently. As of the 19th, the price was US $835-853 / T. recently, the overall external ethylene market showed a downward trend, and the recent decline of ethylene in Europe was large, with a single day decline of more than US $70 / T. Generally speaking, the overall external market demand for ethylene is poor recently, the market trading atmosphere is poor, the transaction situation is not ideal, and the ethylene market continues to decline.

At present, with the support of tight goods, EVA prices are further higher, and the downstream just needs to purchase, with good enthusiasm. However, as the price rises to a relatively high level, the follow-up rising space is limited. It is expected that the EVA market will be mainly consolidated in the later stage or at a high level.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the price of spandex today is 83200 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton from last week, an increase of 0.06%. The market price of spandex was steadily sorted out this week. During the week, the spandex market remained at a high level, the upstream raw material market was consolidated and operated, the cost side support performance was acceptable, the spot supply in the field was still tight, the downstream market demand was followed up carefully, and the market atmosphere of all parties in the field was strong.

In terms of upstream raw materials, PTMEG is strong in the raw material market, pure MDI is in stalemate operation, the supporting role of the cost side remains stable, the manufacturers’ start-up is high, but the inventory is still low, the supply of some goods sources is still tight, and the supply of individual batches is slightly relieved compared with the previous period. Due to the weak follow-up demand in the terminal market, some customers set production by sales and just need to take goods, The imbalance between supply and demand in the overall market has not been improved yet.

Business analysts predict that the domestic spandex market is strong and stable, the raw material market remains basically stable, the cost support advantage of spandex is not obvious, the on-site operation is high, and the spot supply is still tight, but the manufacturer’s low inventory supports the price temporarily strong, but it is heard that the supply in the market is gradually loose, the demand in the terminal market is flat, and it is also affected by the mentality.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fell continuously this week. On August 15, the price of toluene was 5772.2 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 22), the price was 5682 yuan / ton, down 15.6% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 68.12%.

2、 Analysis and review

The demand is weak, and the atmosphere in the venue continues to be light. Crude oil fell continuously during the week, dragging down the bulk commodity market. As the downstream toluene, the market mentality was bearish and the price fell.

In terms of external market, as of August 20, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $739 / T, down US $19 / T or 2.51% month on month (MOM) on August 13.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta mutant virus has led to a bearish market on the demand recovery process. In addition, official data show that the oil refining output and economic activity of major emerging market countries have slowed down, the market pessimism has increased, and the international oil price has continued to decline this week. On August 13, Brent fell $5.41 / barrel, or 7.66%; WTI fell $6.12/barrel, or 8.94%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rebounded this week. The price of domestic goods was 15075 yuan / ton, up 5.05% from last week and 7.68% from the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is sorted upward, the offer of the cargo holder is on the high side, and the on-site information suppliers are dominant; Downstream follow-up is average, mainly wait-and-see.

In the PX market, the domestic PX trend was stable this week, with the price of 7300 yuan / ton, up 58.7% over the same period last year. Recently, the closing price of international crude oil continued to decline, and the trend of PX external price declined. As of August 20, the closing prices in Asia were US $857-859 / T FOB Korea and US $865-867 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

With the spread of delta virus, the market is more worried about limited demand, and the international oil price may still fall. Continue to pay attention to OPEC + production increase, U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventory data, global stock market and economic data, the latest epidemic situation and geographical situation.

The demand side continued to be weak, and toluene fluctuated with the trend of crude oil in the short term. Overall, toluene may still fall, but the decline is limited. Pay attention to the changes in downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market trends on toluene prices.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of domestic local refiners fluctuated downward this week. On August 22, the average price of Shandong market was 2568.50 yuan / ton, down 0.58% from the average price of petroleum coke market on August 16 was 2583.50 yuan / ton.

On August 22, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 199.77, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.06% from the highest point 201.91 in the cycle (2021-08-18), and up 198.65% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, refineries started to resume production one after another, but some refineries were overhauled, the supply of petroleum coke increased, the demand was good, and the price of locally refined petroleum coke rose and fell.

Upstream: international crude oil fell sharply, mainly due to the Fed’s expectation of tightening monetary policy, which led to the continuous appreciation of the US dollar and lowered the valuation of oil prices. What is more important is the joint effect of the dual pressure of increasing production in oil producing countries and cooling demand under the influence of the epidemic.

Downstream: the price of upstream petroleum coke is high, and carbon enterprises continue to operate under pressure under the cost pressure of carbon enterprises; Calcined coke prices are rising steadily; Metal silicon market continues upward trend; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of August 22, the price was 20120.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 5 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 33rd week of 2021 (8.16-8.20), including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were coking coal (5.41%), coke (4.23%) and liquefied natural gas (3.68%). A total of 10 commodities decreased month on month, and 2 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were WTI crude oil (- 7.22%), Brent crude oil (- 5.86%) and liquefied gas (- 3.18%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.56%.

According to the petroleum coke analysts of business society, the local refineries have started to resume production recently, and the supply of local petroleum coke has increased, but the demand is good, the electrolytic aluminum market performs well, and the carbon enterprises are under pressure. It is expected that the petroleum coke may rise steadily in the near future.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was 2466.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2600 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 5.41% and a price increase of 92.59% over the same period last year. Coking coal prices are running at a high level.

On August 20, the coking coal commodity index was 191.88, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 327.25% from the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

According to the business society, in terms of supply, coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future, and in terms of origin, the coal in origin has increased recently. However, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the supply of coking coal in the main origin is still relatively tight, and the contradiction between coking coal supply and demand still exists.

Demand: coke has experienced two rounds of rising this week and landed quickly. As of this Friday, coking enterprises in Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other main production areas have started the fifth round of raising 120 yuan / ton, and the downstream has not responded yet. In terms of supply, coking enterprises have reduced their output to a certain extent due to the difficulty of raw material procurement and the impact of production restriction and conversion in some areas. At present, the inventory in the plant is mostly low, the manufacturers are active in operation and have good sales. In terms of downstream demand, the steel mills have been active in purchasing this week, actively increasing storage, providing good support for coke demand, improving the steel mills’ purchasing enthusiasm and high demand for replenishment.

According to the coking coal analyst of business society, coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future, and the coal in the producing area has increased recently. However, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the supply of coking coal in the main producing area is still relatively tight, and the contradiction between coking coal supply and demand still exists; In terms of downstream coke, the coke price is relatively strong, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream steel mills is not reduced. At present, the inventory in coke enterprises is mostly low, the manufacturers start actively and sell well. Coke still has a strong demand for supplementary storage of coking coal. Overall, the price of coking coal in the later stage still maintained a strong trend.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell first and then rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 70266.67 yuan / ton, up 0.9% from 69641.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 21.24% from the beginning of the week and 39.02% year-on-year.

Macro aspect: at the beginning of the week, as the US non farm data in July was better than market expectations, the Fed narrowed its expectations, resulting in a decline in metal prices and a slight decline in copper prices; Later, as the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, it will boost metal demand and drive the metal rebound.

Supply side: the strike of copper mine has been disturbed continuously. At the end of July, Escondida mine of BHP, andina mine of Codelco and jxnippon Mining &; The trade union of the casrones mine owned by metals (about 3500 mining workers) voted to strike after they rejected the management’s new labor agreement and entered the government mediation stage with the intervention of the Labor Office (DT) in the first week of August. The strike of several copper mines triggered concerns about the shortage of copper supply, which made the copper price strong. However, on the last day of this week, the largest copper mine, Escondida copper mine, negotiated a contract, avoided a strike and eased the tension in the copper mine.

Demand: in the new year of real estate completion, the sales of home decoration market are hot, and the market presents a situation of off-season. In the first half of the year, the completed investment in power grid reached 36.7% of the planned investment. In the second half of the year, the orders of State Grid and the post flood reconstruction project in Henan will strongly support the consumption of electrolytic copper.

LME copper inventory

To sum up: the supply and demand are weak, but the supply interference is greater than expected, and the total inventory continues to decline. It is difficult to effectively increase the inventory in August. As time gradually approaches the peak season, the demand for goods increases, and the price fluctuation range rises. It is expected to maintain a high fluctuation pattern in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of domestic vitamin C remained stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C remained stable at 49.33 yuan / kg.

According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic vitamin C market is light. At present, the mainstream price of food grade is 46-48 yuan / kg, and that of feed grade is 43-45 yuan / kg. The market quotation is falsely high, and the market transaction price is mainly negotiated. The downstream demand is general, and supply and demand are the main. The manufacturer will not quote for the time being during some maintenance. The production and sales of vitamin C market are weak, and the price is stable.

Corn: the upstream corn price rose slightly, and the overall market fluctuated, rising by 0.15% during the week. The overall market fluctuation is small, and the support for vitamin C is limited.

The price of vitamin A fell this week, with an average price of 295 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 289 yuan / kg at the weekend, down 2.26%. The decline of vitamin A increased this week, mainly due to the continuous loss of the downstream pig industry, the continuous downturn of the demand in the terminal meat market, the fluctuation of pig price at 15-16 yuan / kg, the high feed cost and the continuous light purchase of feed additives. Traders are eager to buy goods, there is more room for price negotiation, weak demand support and falling prices.

The price of vitamin E remained stable this week, with an average price of 74.33 yuan / kg. It is understood that Zhejiang Pharmaceutical vitamin E plant will be shut down for maintenance, and no external quotation will be made for the time being. Downstream demand is general, traders are eager for goods, and ve prices are temporarily stable.

Future forecast

The vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that: on the whole, the demand of the vitamin market is weak, and the price is difficult to rise significantly. Affected by the epidemic situation and the depression of the feed industry, it is expected that the recent vitamin price shock will be mainly lower.