In October, the price of domestic fluorite rose. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2956.25 yuan/ton, 4.65% higher than the price of 2825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. Since the middle of October, the price has reached a high level. At present, the price is at the peak of the year.

Supply side: shortage of raw ore supply, high price of fluorite

The operating rate of domestic supply side remained low. Mining enterprises faced increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines, a shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, limited commencement of fluorite flotation, and insufficient supply of spot goods. In addition, the import of fluorite was limited. The epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia was serious, fluorite transportation was difficult, and the supply of fluorite was very tight. The price of fluorite rose in October.

Demand side: the price of hydrofluoric acid rises, and the refrigerant market is fair

In October, the price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose. As of October 28, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid market was 10442.86 yuan/ton, and the price increase in October was 4.58%. The hydrofluoric acid enterprises started normal, and the demand was guaranteed. The price rise of hydrofluoric acid market formed a positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite market rose.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is between 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much. The price of trichloroethylene has risen, and the cost support is still in place. The focus of R134a trading remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-27000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain.

In addition to the well-known fluorine chemical industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and in fields such as national defense, military, and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, and photovoltaic panels. With the demand for new energy, the outlook of the fluorite industry chain has been improved accordingly.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises are about to enter a seasonal shutdown period. In addition, the supply of raw ore is very tight in the near future. The price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream market is on the rise, and the demand in the new energy field is driving. Chen Ling, an analyst from the business community, believes that the price of fluorite in the market may still have a small increase.

Price trend

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, the market of POM in October fluctuated in a narrow range, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell in tandem. As of October 31, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of the business community was about 13800 yuan/ton, up or down by+0.98% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: In terms of upstream formaldehyde, Shandong formaldehyde market rose first and then fell in October, and the increase was greater than the decrease. The downstream plate factory maintains just in need procurement and the inventory is controllable. Coal price supports methanol production cost. The atmosphere of the domestic methanol market is good. The quotation in some regions is adjusted in a narrow range, but the adjustment is not large. The mainstream transaction is stable, and the formaldehyde market changes with the cost.

After the upstream formaldehyde market rose, the POM cost end support was acceptable. In terms of industry load, the current domestic POM industry enterprises maintain full load on the whole. In the second half of the month, foreign investment and joint venture enterprises have carried out partial maintenance. In terms of supply, there is abundant supply and strong competition on the market. In October, many petrochemical plants raised the factory price of POM, but the supplier’s positive effect was not good. After the price rise, the market acceptance was poor, causing a certain decline. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profit and other factors, and the location is general. In terms of purchasing, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the supply of high priced goods is relatively opposed. At the same time, there is an early stock of goods, and the overall demand is weak. The merchants and the downstream responded that the actual orders were mainly small orders. It is difficult for high price goods to be shipped. The merchants talk about it alone, and the buyers have a heavy wait-and-see mentality.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believed that the POM market in October was in shock operation, and the upstream formaldehyde market was rising and then gave back, with an overall increase, and the POM cost support was average. The load of POM industry is high, and there is pressure on the supply side. The demand follow-up of downstream enterprises has not improved, and downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory and purchase scattered small orders. At present, the supply in some areas of the market may be tight due to shipping and other problems. With the early supplier price adjustment, it is expected that the POM price will still be strong in the short term.

This week (10.24-28), the domestic liquid ammonia market continued the decline of last week, with a slight slowdown. According to the monitoring of the business community, the drop of liquid ammonia in Shandong this week was 0.40% (1.82% last week), and the supply pressure was still outstanding. The amount of ammonia released in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Fujian, Southwest and other major production areas increased, and the price also decreased to varying degrees. The mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 3800-4000 yuan/ton near the weekend.

From the supply side, the ammonia emission in the main production areas only increased this week. Since the middle of the week, Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Hunan and Fujian have seen large shipments, and with the manufacturers’ successive price reductions, more efforts have been made to ship. Moreover, due to the continuous weak fluctuation of urea price, many enterprises still switched to liquid ammonia production this week. In recent two weeks, the ammonia volume remained high, and the price was suppressed by loose supply.

On the end, the downstream demand of liquid ammonia is still sluggish, and urea also maintains a weak shock. This week, although the market rebounded slightly during the week, it still did not rise to the level at the beginning of the week. According to the monitoring of the business community, urea rose and fell to 0 this week. As of the 21st, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong was generally 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the downstream industrial demand has weakened, and the operating rate of plates is generally low. In addition, the demand for compound fertilizer has declined at the end of the autumn peak fertilizer season, and the agricultural demand has entered the slack season. The price of urea dropped from a high level.

Future market forecast:

Analysts from the business community believe that the price of liquid ammonia has maintained a weak shock recently due to the continuous pressure of supply. However, from the middle of the week to the weekend, some manufacturers of liquid ammonia started to raise their prices, with a slight increase in prices. Whether they can rebound later depends on the cooperation of the demand side. As far as the current demand is concerned, agriculture has entered the slack season, industrial demand remains just in demand, and the increase is difficult to boost. Therefore, it is expected that liquid ammonia will maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of October 27, 2022, the average reference average price of domestic n-propanol is 8300 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as that of October 1 (8300 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since October (10.1-10.27), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole has been running up first and then down. In the first ten days of October, after the National Day holiday, the domestic n-propanol market moved up as a whole. The inventory of n-propanol in the plant is controllable. The increase in the ex factory price of n-propanol by Shandong’s large factories has driven the overall market upward. As of October 14, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province in China has been around 8200-8900 yuan/ton. Compared with that before the festival, the price has been increased by 300-700 yuan/ton.

At the end of October, the n-propanol market as a whole fluctuated from a high level to a low level. Due to the impact of special periods, the logistics in some regions was limited, the downstream factories started to operate at a low level, the demand for n-propanol in the downstream was general, and the atmosphere of on-site trading and investment was light. From the 16th, the n-propanol market price fluctuated downward. By the end of the 27th, the domestic n-propanol market price in Shandong was around 7900-8300 yuan/ton, and dealers in various regions had reservations about the price, It is not easy to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has its own differences. The actual order negotiation is the main thing. In the future, we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading and investment atmosphere of n-propanol in the market is light, and the downstream demand is generally supported. The n-propanol data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple sectors, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of October 26, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8266.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as that on Friday (October 21), 1.20% lower than that on September 26, and 2.48% higher than that on a three-month cycle.

Recently, the quotation of enterprises in the melamine market is mainly stable, but the market is under pressure. From the perspective of cost, the raw material urea has been operating stably after the recent price drop, and the cost support for melamine has weakened. From the supply and demand side, the operating rate of melamine increased slightly. Some enterprises mainly export, while domestic downstream procurement is mainly on demand. The demand side is weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand has dragged the stable and weak operation of the melamine market.

As for upstream urea, the domestic urea market was temporarily stable on October 25. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of urea was 2458.00 on October 25, a decrease of 3.8% compared with October 1 (2555.00).

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that the current cost support is limited, and the supply side operating rate has improved, but the demand side is mainly based on demand, and the market atmosphere is weak. It is expected that the melamine market will be stable and weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the figure above that the domestic hydrochloric acid price rose slightly this week, and the average market price rose from 160.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 180.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 12.50%. A year-on-year drop of 56.94%. On October 20, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 46.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.28% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 158.57% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Better upstream support, weaker downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this week. The quotation of Wenshui Synthetic Hydrochloric Acid this weekend is 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong Hydrochloric Acid Co., Ltd. quoted 100 yuan/ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng San’an Hydrochloric Acid offered 350 yuan/ton this weekend, up 50 yuan/ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The price of the downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, from 2017.50 yuan/ton at the end of last year to 2011.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.31%, and a year-on-year drop of 13.39% compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride was adjusted at a low level, and the price was 990.00 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is good, while the downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakened.

Future market forecast

In late October, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly in a narrow range. The market of upstream liquid chlorine has been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. The market of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride has fluctuated at a narrow range at a low level, and the downstream is willing to purchase. The analysts of the business association believe that hydrochloric acid has declined slightly in recent shocks.

This week, the spot tin market price (10.14-10.21) fell in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 181910 yuan/ton last weekend and 176460 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly drop of 3%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will continue to weaken after April 2022, with only partial weekly price increases, and the increase is relatively low. The overall trend is mainly downward.

Futures market situation this week

Variety., closing price., compared with the same period of last week., inventory volume (ton)., compared with last week’s inventory change (ton)

Shanghai tin, 168450 yuan/ton, – 13530 yuan/ton, 2754.,+1132

London tin, 18745 dollars/ton, – 1175 dollars/ton, 4575.,+5

The trend of futures market this week is similar to that of Shanghai Tin, which is mainly downward. In particular, Shanghai Tin fell to a new low of 162730 yuan/ton in two years on the 21st, closing down 2.67% on a single day on the 21st. On the macro level, the trend of the dollar was high and consolidated. The metal market was generally under pressure, and Shanghai Tin fell 5.09% on a weekly basis. This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin has been replaced. The trend of Lunxi this week is basically similar to that of Shanghai Tin, falling 6.30% under macro pressure next week.

As for the spot market, it followed the trend of Shanghai Tin this week, with overall shocks and downturns. This week, the market quotation was cautious, the overall transaction was average, and it still remained on demand. The atmosphere in the market was cold. In terms of supply, the impact of power restriction in Yunnan on tin industry is limited, and the main production capacity is not significantly affected. Only some regions are slightly affected by transportation, and the overall supply of domestic market is still loose. In terms of downstream demand, the performance of electronic products is still weak, the support for overseas demand is soft, the sales of tin terminal consumer goods, electronics, household appliances and other products are poor, and the market expectation is still soft. The market news said that Indonesia, the main producer, planned to restrict tin exports, but the government has not yet announced a clear time point, so the impact on the market can be ignored. In general, tin is still in a situation of loose supply and weak demand. However, there are many macro negative factors in the near future, and tin’s own inventory is low, which is significantly affected by macro news and domestic capital disturbance. The tin price without the support of fundamentals is expected to maintain a wide range of concussion in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are five kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 42nd week of 2022 (10.17-10.21), with zinc (1.78%), lead (0.92%) and aluminum (0.86%) in the top three. There were 14 kinds of goods that declined month on month, and 1 kind of goods that declined more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of monitored goods in this sector; The top three products of the decline were praseodymium metal (-5.97%), praseodymium oxide (-3.97%) and neodymium oxide (-2.60%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.97%.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of PVC calcium carbide SG5 fell this week. On Friday, the average price of domestic PVC was 6281.43 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6178.51 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.64% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of PVC domestic spot market fell this week, and futures prices also fell. The overall market operation of the market is weak, the spot market transaction is not good, the confidence is insufficient, the market price gradually falls slightly, and the actual transaction is limited. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide is mostly around 5750-6450 yuan/ton.

For crude oil, on October 20, the settlement price of international crude oil futures was basically the same as that of the previous trading day. The settlement price of December contract (month) of US WTI crude oil futures was 84.51 dollars/barrel, down 0.01 dollars; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 92.38 dollars/barrel, down 0.03 dollars. The game between supply and demand intensified, and oil prices fell into a stalemate.

In terms of calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose from 3950 yuan/ton at the weekend to 3966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 0.42%. In late October, the calcium carbide market fell mainly due to narrow shocks. The price of raw material semicarbon runs at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. The PVC market in the downstream has experienced a narrow range of shock and decline, and the downstream demand has weakened. In late October, calcium carbide prices in northwest China may fall in a narrow range.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that the current prices of PVC both fell this week, depressing market confidence. The overall market demand is light, new orders are limited, and the trading atmosphere is poor. It is expected that the PVC market price will be weak and stable in the short term. Pay close attention to the changes in the message.

The trend of domestic gasoline and diesel is divergent. As of the 14th, the price of domestic 92 # gasoline was 8420 yuan/ton, and the price fell 3.14% after the National Day holiday; The domestic price of 0 # diesel oil was 8786.6 yuan/ton, and the market price increased by 0.24%, mainly because of the demand. The demand for diesel oil was improving, the demand for gasoline was declining, and the price trend of gasoline and diesel oil was diverging.

Supply side: In October, the operating rate of Shandong refineries was maintained, and the supply side was loose. The local refineries were relatively abundant in resource supply. The main shipping pressure remained, and the gasoline price fell under pressure. In the near future, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in Shandong’s main refineries has maintained about 65%, the manufacturer’s inventory has been maintained, and the supply of gasoline and diesel is loose. Therefore, the supply of refined oil resources is limited, the operators’ intention to enter the market is reduced, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is light.

Demand side: after the National Day holiday, the epidemic situation in some areas has occurred occasionally, the travel of residents has decreased, the demand for gasoline has declined, and the price of gasoline has declined. In terms of diesel, at present, large-scale industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries are actively speeding up. At the same time, it is autumn harvest in the north, and agricultural oil use is increasing. With the decrease of temperature and rainy weather, the operating rate of outdoor infrastructure and industrial and mining has increased, and diesel demand remains high. Since October, diesel sales have been good, and diesel prices have risen slightly.

In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price has risen since October. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price has risen by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side is difficult to ease. The World Bank and the IMF warned that the risk of global economic recession is growing, The IMF also lowered its economic growth forecast for next year. After the holiday, the crude oil price fell for three consecutive days. As of the 13th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was 89.11 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was 94.57 dollars/barrel. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories. On the whole, the price of crude oil rose, the cost support remained, and the domestic oil product market was supported to some extent.

Future market forecast: Chen Ling, an oil product analyst from the business community, believes that OPEC+’s crude oil production reduction news is good for the oil market, but economic concerns continue to pressure oil prices, and international oil prices remain volatile in the short term. On the domestic side, there is no good holiday boost in the short term, travel is limited in some regions, gasoline demand is poor, and prices are still at risk of falling. At present, the operation rate of large-scale industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries is stable. At the same time, the autumn harvest is coming in the north, and the agricultural oil use is increasing. With the temperature decreasing, the northern region has begun to replace the negative resources. The diesel resources are relatively tight, but the diesel gradually approaches the price limit level, and the increase will be limited.

From October 8, 2022 to October 14, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzol rose. Last weekend, it was 6729 yuan/ton, and this weekend, it was 6915 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.76%.

In terms of crude oil, as OPEC+plans to significantly reduce production from November, the oil price has risen continuously during the festival, and Brent’s price rose by 9.96 dollars/barrel, or 11.32%, during the National Day; WTI rose by 13.15 dollars/barrel, or 16.54%. However, the market’s concern about economic recession still depressed the oil price, which mainly fell after the festival. As of October 14, Brent’s price fell by 6.29 dollars/barrel, or 6.42%, compared with last week; WTI fell by 7.03 USD/barrel, or 7.59%. Global inflation remains high, which strengthens the expectation of the central bank to raise interest rates, increases the risk of economic recession, and then weakens the demand for fuel, overshadowing the positive effect of OPEC+production cuts in oil producing countries.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

September 6., 7750.,+150

September 20., 7850.,+100

October 8., 8000.,+150

October 10., 8200.,+200

October 13., 8000., – 200

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene will be reduced by 200 yuan/ton on October 13, 2022, and the current price is 8000 yuan/ton.

Quotation of other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical 8200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical 8103 yuan/ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical 8200 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, and it has recovered slightly at the end of August and the beginning of September, and declined slightly in October.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell this week. The opening of the market after the festival was boosted by the surge of crude oil during the festival. The pure benzene market in Asia in the external market rose, and the domestic market was in a strong positive atmosphere. After the festival, the pure benzene market rose again. The listing price of Sinopec pure benzene rose continuously to 8200 yuan/ton, and most enterprises had a certain degree of demand for replenishment after the festival. The market transactions were good. In the later period, crude oil and styrene fell, and negative fundamentals dragged down the pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene was dragged down, and the overall market trading slowed down. However, the market cycle of hydrogenated benzene basically followed the trend of pure benzene, maintaining the trend of rising first and then falling. However, with the weakening of fundamentals, the downstream price depression mentality was strong, and the price of hydrogenated benzene fell back to its high at the weekend. In the future market, the fundamentals weaken the pure benzene market, which is bad for the pure benzene market. The port inventory in East China is low as a whole. There are some maintenance plans for the downstream devices of pure benzene in the near future, which may delay the demand for pure benzene. The pure benzene industry chain may decline. In the future market, the focus is on the downstream construction in the fourth quarter and the impact of crude oil trends on the price of pure benzene.

The crude benzol price continued to rise this week, with a small overall increase. The bidding price in Shandong Province this week was 6820~6830 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 25 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the production limit of coking enterprises increased this week compared with the earlier period, and the supply of crude benzol contracted compared with the earlier period, which boosted the market to a certain extent. Downstream benzol hydrogenation enterprises have recently started to recover, and the demand for crude benzol is fair after the festival, which has certain support for crude benzol. However, the overall trend of the industrial chain is weak, which hinders the crude benzol price to rise. The crude benzol price only rose slightly this week. In the future market, the crude benzol market is a good and bad game. In the case of the expected tightening of the follow-up supply, the crude benzol price is expected to fluctuate mainly.