This week (11.7-11), the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the decline of this week was 1.36%, 8.78% lower than the previous month. At present, the adipic acid market price range is 10000-10300 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the decline: the decline of upstream raw material pure benzene, higher operating rate and sluggish demand.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week. Adipic acid and upstream products fell across the board, while downstream PA66 prices remained flat. From the perspective of the rise and fall of the industrial chain, the upstream decline of adipic acid narrowed slightly, the decline of pure benzene was 2% (down 4.49% last week), and the decline of cyclohexane was 1.17% (down 6.61% last week), which was negative on the cost side. Downstream rigid demand is dominant, with little change.

Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline

This week, pure benzene continued to fall mainly. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. The decline this week was 2%. On the one hand, Sinopec lowered the price, which depressed the enthusiasm of the market. In addition, domestic large caprolactam plants shut down for maintenance, and the market share of pure benzene was squeezed by the inflow of hydrogenated benzene, which depressed the price of pure benzene. The recent concentrated arrival of ships and cargoes has impacted the domestic market. Near the weekend, the price of East China pure benzene is in the range of 6850-7000 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that the two are positively correlated and the trend is highly consistent, but the opening of the curve has widened in recent months, and the decline of pure benzene is stronger than that of adipic acid.

Supply side: Start up and stabilize the accumulated warehouse of the manufacturer

From the perspective of market supply, at the beginning of the month, the manufacturer’s settlement price was introduced, and the large factories settled at low prices, intensifying the bearish atmosphere in the market. In terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid this week was the same as last week, about 60%. Last week, Xinjiang Tianli device resumed operation and Taihua increased its load. At present, the supply is stable; At the same time, Shenma has a set of devices that enter the maintenance period at the beginning of the month. The other devices have not changed much, and the supply has not changed much, but the manufacturers generally accumulate inventory.

Demand side: weak downstream demand

The downstream performance of adipic acid is weak, the market is weak, and the early inventory is mainly digested. The downstream factories are cautious in taking the goods, and sporadic orders need to be supplemented to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, the rise and fall of PA66 this week was 0, and the downstream still resisted the high price supply, and the shipment speed slowed down. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 25000 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

According to the business community, on the cost side, crude oil runs in shock, which is not very good, and the supply pressure of pure benzene is high, so it is difficult for pure benzene to get out of the haze in the later period, and the cost of adipic acid is still empty. The supply and demand may remain weak, and the low operating rate will continue to hedge against the downturn in demand. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the upstream pure benzene price trend.

Last week (November 7-13), viscose staple fiber continued to be weak. Most of the manufacturers made early orders for delivery, with few new orders, and the price was weak and stable. After active negotiation during this period, the transaction price of imported dissolved pulp has been introduced one after another, and the price center has been adjusted to the next level. The support for the cost end of viscose staple fiber continues to weaken, and the operating rate of the industry remains low. At present, the overall load of the industry is about 65%. Downstream cotton yarn continued to be weak, with stable prices, and the overall trading atmosphere was light, and some manufacturers had planned to suspend production in advance.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of viscose staple fiber was stable this week (November 7-13). As of November 11, 2022, the factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in domestic areas was 13220 yuan/ton; The price of human cotton yarn is weak and stable. As of November 13, 2022 (30S, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price is 17,866 yuan/ton.

Inventory and demand

The start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry remains low. At present, the overall load is about 65%, and the overall low start-up may continue under the loss making operation of the manufacturer. Renmian yarn continues to be weak, and the operating rate of the factory drops slightly. The manufacturer mainly makes shipments, and the overall delivery atmosphere is light. The downstream just needs a small amount of procurement. The weaving factory has arranged a Spring Festival holiday.

Future market forecast

Viscose staple fiber factory mainly implements early order delivery, with few new orders. Textile terminal demand is difficult to improve for a while. With the weakening of cost end support and poor demand, the price of viscose staple fiber may go down again.

This week, the lead market (11.04-11.11) went up slightly. The average price in the domestic market was 15145 yuan/ton last weekend and 15410 yuan/ton this weekend, up 1.75%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise.

Lead futures market this week

Variety/. Closing price/. YoY/. Inventory/. YoY

Shanghai Lead/. 15680 yuan/ton/.+450 yuan/ton/. 44631 tons/.+689

London lead/. 2159.5 US dollars/ton/.+174 US dollars/ton/. 27100 tons/. – 250

The overall trend of the futures market was strong this week, with Lun Pb hitting a high in three months on Friday. There are many macro positive factors this week. The market sentiment of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase has warmed up. On Friday, a new policy was introduced to improve the domestic market. The metal market was boosted. This week, the main actor, Shanghai Lead, surged to the highest point in nearly half a year this Friday.

Fundamentally speaking, the import of the ore end in terms of supply is not as good as the market expectation, the overall supply is still tight, and the overall operating rate of domestic production enterprises has slightly increased. The production of renewable lead enterprises is good in the near future, and the resumption of production is active, and the overall supply of lead is slightly improved. The production of downstream battery enterprises has been good since the peak season, but as the weather turns cold, the peak season will gradually end in the downstream. The market expects that the demand for lead will decline in the future, and the lead ingot inventory will remain de stocked as a whole. To sum up, the supply and demand of lead in the current fundamentals have increased, the market peak season is expected to come to an end, and the trading is fair. Although the downstream peak season is coming to an end, the lead ingot export situation is good in the near future, and the market has a strong expectation of future export. On the whole, the positive factors in the lead ingot market prevail, and it is expected that the future market will remain stable and strong.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 45th week of 2022 (11.7-11.11), of which there are 3 kinds of commodities that have risen by more than 5%, accounting for 13% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; The top three commodities were nickel (7.52%), tin (6.07%) and silver (5.08%). There were 10 kinds of commodities falling month on month, with antimony (-1.63%), praseodymium oxide (-1.46%) and praseodymium metal (-1.09%) as the top three products. This week, the average rise or fall was 1.06%.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid began to rise in October, ending the continuous decline. As of the 11th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11157.14 yuan/ton, up 11.73% from 9985.71 yuan/ton in early October, down 20.36% year on year.

The domestic market trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising. The epidemic situation in some northern areas is repeated, some devices are stopped, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is reduced. The price of raw material market continued to rise, with strong support of cost, and the price of hydrofluoric acid rose.

The rising cost of fluorite is obviously supported by:

The market price of raw material fluorite has risen sharply. As of the 11th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3200 yuan/ton. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the highest point in the year. The construction of fluorite mines is insufficient, and domestic fluorite raw materials are in short supply. In addition to the shutdown of some overseas devices, the export volume of fluorite is greatly increased, the price of fluorite is rising, and the domestic market is rising due to the cost of hydrofluoric acid.

The price of sulfuric acid rises, and the production cost of hydrofluoric acid increases:

The raw sulfuric acid market rose sharply in October and then fell back slightly, showing an overall upward trend. As of the 11th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 366 yuan/ton, up 23.65% from the beginning of October. Recently, some domestic sulphuric acid plants have been shut down for maintenance, the supply has been reduced, downstream users have actively purchased, and the sulphuric acid market has risen, which has driven the domestic hydrofluoric acid market up.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, the demand in emerging areas in the downstream of hydrofluoric acid continues to develop, including lithium batteries, photovoltaic, fluoropolymer, lithium hexafluorophosphate, etc. The demand in new areas is developing rapidly, and the capacity is expected to continue to expand. The demand for hydrofluoric acid continues to increase. With the demand in new energy, semiconductor and other fields, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: the upstream supply of fluorite is tight, fluorite prices continue to rise, coupled with the shutdown of some hydrofluoric acid devices for maintenance, and the shortage of spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, the refrigerant industry is expected to start stocking up in the later period. In addition to the long-term development of emerging demand, Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at the business community, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will continue to rise in the later period.

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the factory price of domestic paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, 7.53% lower than the price of 9300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 17.81% higher than the same period last year.

The domestic supply of paraxylene increased, and the domestic PX operating rate rose to more than 70%. At the end of October, a new PX unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was successfully commissioned, which was expected to trigger a downward market trend. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the external price of PX has declined. As of the 3rd day, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 967-969 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 985-987 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has risen slightly. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has increased, and the domestic market for paraxylene has declined.

On the cost side: the trend of international oil prices rose. As of the 3rd day, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 88.17 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 94.67 dollars/barrel. OPEC will start to reduce production in November, when crude oil production declines, strongly supporting oil prices. EIA data shows that US crude oil exports hit a record high, US total crude oil inventory fell to a 21 year low, international oil prices further rose, and crude oil brought some cost support.

Demand side: The domestic PTA spot market fell first and then rose this week. As of the 4th day, the average price in the East China market was 5770 yuan/ton. PTA maintenance and production reduction capacity has been reduced. With the restart of large factories and resumption of production, the industrial load has increased significantly to 75%, and the supply has increased. However, due to the low actual inventory on the market, the overlapping epidemic situation has reduced the logistics efficiency, and the PTA market has fluctuated. The weak terminal demand led to the further accumulation of the inventory of the polyester factory. As of the 4th day, the inventory of the polyester factory was about 31-38 days. Therefore, the raw materials were purchased as needed. With the approaching end of the winter stocking season, the current operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 65%, which is likely to continue to reduce the load. The polyester industry also has a strong expectation of load reduction. Downstream losses deepened, inventories were high, and orders were limited, which suppressed the demand for staple fiber. Terminal demand was poor, and the price trend declined.

Future market forecast: Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current supply side and demand side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game. In the short term, the macro and supply side will still be good for the oil market. The oil price may run stronger in the future, the downstream demand will be poor, the improvement of terminal orders will be limited, the storage pressure of polyester will rise, and the profits will be compressed again. In addition, Shenghong Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. will have a new PX unit of 2 million tons/year Weilian Chemical Phase II 1 million t/a PX new unit is planned to be put into production in November. Overall, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will fluctuate slightly in the later period.

From October 28, 2022 to November 4, 2022, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6512.5 yuan/ton last weekend and 6712.5 yuan/ton this weekend, up 3.07%.

On November 3, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 231.47, up 6.9 points from yesterday, hitting a new record high in the cycle and 390.92% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The bidding price in Shanxi continued to rise slightly this week. The downstream deep processing industry still has support. The tar supply is tight, supporting the raw material price to a new high.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, and only after a small price correction in one week, the price continues to rise.

In terms of the industrial chain, the downstream deep processing industry rose and fell by half this week. As the coal tar price continued to rise, the profit of the deep processing industry was further tightened, and the deep processing industry’s resistance to the high price of coal tar was strengthened again. This week, the traffic in some production areas was blocked, resulting in poor delivery. Therefore, some enterprises started to operate at a certain decline. The overall operating rate of the deep processing industry declined slightly, but remained at a relatively normal level.

The price of coal tar continued to rise this week, but there were some differences in the rise rates of different regions. Under the joint influence of poor transportation in some areas and tight supply of coal tar due to the heavy production restriction of coke enterprises, the price in Shanxi has risen sharply this week. At present, the mainstream price is 6700-6880 yuan/ton. The price in other regions rose slightly this week, with the mainstream price in Shandong Province at 6400-6450 yuan/ton and Hebei Province at 6400 yuan/ton. The downstream market rose and fell by half this week, and the support for tar declined. The profits of downstream deep processing enterprises continued to shrink, and they were somewhat resistant to high priced raw materials. However, as the heating season approaches, the operating rate of coking enterprises is likely to decrease, and the tar will soon enter a period of seasonal tight supply. Therefore, the tar price will be dominated by a consolidation trend at a high level in the future market, and it is difficult to continue to rise.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell slightly this week. The price of sulfuric acid fell from 418.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 408.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decline of 2.39%, 51.33% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On November 6, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 63.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 101.46% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market declined slightly, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers fell slightly this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market declined slightly. The price of sulfur fell from 1350.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1250.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 7.41%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 41.13% year on year. The upstream market declined slightly, and the cost support weakened. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, with the market price rising from 10442.86 yuan/ton at the end of last year to 11128.57 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 6.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.88% compared with the same period last year. The downstream titanium dioxide market declined slightly, with the market price falling 0.52% from 16016.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 15933.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 23.95% year on year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market has both ups and downs, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the middle and late November, the domestic sulfuric acid market was mainly down due to slight shock. The upstream sulfur market has declined in a narrow range recently, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream market of hydrofluoric acid and ammonium sulfate rose slightly, while the titanium dioxide market fell slightly. The downstream customers were not very enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the sulfuric acid analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price may fall slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of November 4, 2022, the price reference of domestic n-propanol was 8566 yuan/ton, which was 150 yuan/ton higher than that of October 30 (8416 yuan/ton), or 1.78% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic n-propanol market rose during the shock this week (10.31-11.04). At the beginning of this week, due to the influence of logistics and other factors, the shipment in Shandong was relatively slow, and the market price of n-propanol fell slightly, by 100-200 yuan/ton. Since the middle of the week, the callback of raw material price has strengthened the cost support of n-propanol, and the market price of n-propanol has started to run steadily upward. As of November 4, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8000-8300 yuan/ton, and that in Nanjing is around 9000-9500 yuan/ton. There is a large difference between high and low prices in the n-propanol market. The dealers around the country still have reservations about the price. It is difficult to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiations. There are also differences in each region. The actual negotiation is the main way, and we will wait and see the changes in raw material prices and shipments in the future.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

At present, the downstream of n-propanol continues to focus on just in demand procurement, and the demand side performance is stable. The n-propanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, aniline continued its broad upward trend in September this month, and the price climbed to the highest point in the year. On October 1, the aniline market price was 12500 yuan/ton; On October 28, the price was 14700 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month was 17.6% higher than the beginning of the month and 3.76% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

As for raw materials, due to the wide rise of crude oil during the festival, the price of pure benzene in Asia rose, which boosted the domestic pure benzene market. However, with the increase of downstream maintenance, the overall demand side has weakened. In addition, the market of styrene, the main product, has dropped continuously, and the focus of market negotiation has weakened. The downward channel has been opened in the middle of the month. The pure benzene inventory of East China ports rose again in the late ten days, and a large number of ships are expected to arrive at the port in the later period. The industry is bearish on the future market, and the decline at the end of the month expanded. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 7926 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7472 yuan/ton, down 5.72% this month and 2.07% compared with the same period last year.

Nitric acid: nitric acid is stable and slightly active this month, and slightly higher in the late month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2367 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price was 1.43% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 27.99% lower than that at the same period last year.

In October, aniline overhaul devices were relatively concentrated, and aniline production capacity lost significantly, which aggravated the tight market supply. After the festival, due to the good downstream demand and the continuous tight spot supply of aniline, the sellers were reluctant to sell, and the aniline market was hard to get a single product, so the price continued to rise. With the continuous rise of aniline, the downstream profits are compressed, and the follow-up of high priced aniline slows down. The rise of aniline slows down in the last ten days, and the wait-and-see increase.

3、 Future market forecast

Raw material, pure benzene: Since China is at the high price of pure benzene, the import volume of pure benzene will remain high in the future. Domestically, there are many downstream overhaul devices for pure benzene at present, and the demand remains just in demand. It is estimated that the demand may improve in November. In the later period, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Zhongwei Guangdong Petrochemical Plant will be put into production, and the supply of pure benzene will increase. On the whole, the short-term market demand is insufficient, and the trend of pure benzene continues to be weak.

Nitric acid: Although the downstream aniline and TDI are supported by the rise, the support of liquid ammonia on the cost side is weak, and the upward space of nitric acid price is expected to be limited.

In the short term, although the demand for terminal additives has weakened, the tension in aniline supply has continued, supporting the high price. In the medium and long term, East China’s export contracts are dominated, and prices are expected to be relatively stable. In North China, if the parking device is restarted later, the price may fall back. In the later period, we continued to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.

In October 2022, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market rose first and then fell. The average price of the domestic market was 14990 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 15145 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.03%.

On October 30, the lead commodity index was 91.56, unchanged from yesterday, 31.68% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 22.69% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the monthly K column chart, it can be seen that the lead price has fluctuated mainly in recent half a year, with the overall rise and fall within a reasonable range and a limited range. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and it has declined overall, but the decline is small, and the overall trend is still dominated by narrow fluctuations in the off-season. After September, with the downstream battery enterprises entering the peak season, the lead ingot market picked up slightly.

Lead futures market in October 2022

Variety, closing price on September 28, closing price on October 28, inventory on September 28, and inventory on October 28

Shanghai lead, 14875 yuan/ton, 15050 yuan/ton, 55975 tons, 53693 tons

London lead, 1757.5 US dollars/ton, 1992 US dollars/ton, 32750 tons, 28250 tons

From the basic point of view, as the downstream battery peak season is expected to gradually increase after September, the lead ingot is better supported. In terms of supply, the import situation at the mine end is not as good as the market expectation, and the overall supply is still tight. The recent production situation of domestic manufacturers is good, and the overall operating rate has slightly increased. The production of renewable lead enterprises is good in the near future, and the resumption of production is active, and the overall supply of lead is slightly improved. The production of downstream battery enterprises has been good since the peak season, and the overall demand for lead ingots is well supported. The lead ingot inventory declined significantly this month, but there are many negative macro factors in the near future. The lead price, supported by its own favorable fundamentals, has a stronger anti drop ability than other metals. The recent rise of lead price is not enough due to macro drag, the peak season is not strong, and the upward force is limited. In general, the supply and demand of lead are increasing on the basic level, the market peak season is expected to be strong, and the trading is good. As the battery industry enters the end of the peak season in November, the market is expected to decline, but the overall performance is still fair. It is expected that the lead price in the future will continue to fluctuate in a wide range, with some room for price increase. It is necessary to focus on the downstream demand and the impact of macro factors.