According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 24th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3806 yuan/ton, and on May 17th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

Although the policy for bauxite mining in Shanxi has been relaxed, the resumption of bauxite production is not optimistic, mainly due to the complex mining conditions in Shanxi. The instability of supply from overseas producers to two alumina plants in Queensland, Australia has intensified market concerns, further boosting the surge in alumina prices.

In terms of supply and demand

The alumina market has a good trading enthusiasm and an active trading atmosphere. Downstream enterprises actively pursue high replenishment, which has driven a significant increase in spot trading volume. This week, the spot supply in the Shanxi market continued to be tight, with tight spot supply and frequent transactions between intermediaries. The demand for physical electrolytic aluminum replenishment is urgent.

Future Market Forecast

At present, alumina futures continue to fluctuate at high levels, and there are still a large number of alumina orders waiting to be shipped to the delivery warehouse of the previous exchange, continuing to squeeze the physical supply of electrolytic aluminum. The high alumina production period is expected to continue, and the comprehensive resumption of domestic bauxite production will have an impact on the adjustment of alumina prices.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on May 23rd, the price of organic silicon DMC was 13490 yuan/ton. On May 19th, the price of organic silicon DMC was referenced to 13550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that this week (5.19-5.23), the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole showed a weak downward trend. During the week, the overall trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market was relatively light. On the first two days of the week, the organic silicon DMC market was generally weak and consolidating. As of Wednesday, the price of organic silicon DMC offered by Shandong’s large factories was reduced by 150 yuan/ton, and the reference price for organic silicon DMC was around 13300 yuan/ton. Other factories and suppliers mainly maintain stable prices in the early stage. On May 23rd, the market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at around 13300-13900 yuan/ton.

Upstream aspect: Recently, the domestic metal silicon market has been operating weakly, providing loose cost support for organic silicon DMC. On May 22nd, the reference price for silicon metal was 13480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% compared to May 1st (silicon metal price of 13660 yuan/ton).

Future analysis

At present, the overall performance of the organic silicon DMC market still shows strong and weak supply, and small price adjustments have limited stimulation for downstream buying attitudes. The downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong, but the current organic silicon DMC price is at the bottom of the market. Although the demand side support is limited, the short-term market situation is limited. The organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market should mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recently (5.13-5.21), the market for dichloromethane rose first and then fell, with an overall slight upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21st, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2460 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.03% from 2435 yuan/ton on the 13th, and a decrease of 1.99% from the high point of 2510 yuan/ton in the cycle. The raw material methanol and prices have significantly increased, while the price of liquid chlorine has slightly decreased, and the cost of dichloromethane continues to support; In the early stage, foreign trade orders from enterprises in Shandong region supported low inventory levels in the region. In the later stage, as downstream inventory increased and terminal and merchant replenishment actions weakened, the demand for dichloromethane weakened. As of May 21st, the outbound price of mainstream dichloromethane loose water in Shandong region is around 2420-2500 yuan/ton.

Recently (from May 13th to May 21st), some equipment loads have increased, and the overall production of methane chloride in China has slightly increased to around 7.3%.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has significantly increased, while the price of liquid chlorine has slightly decreased, continuing to support the cost of dichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 21st, the spot price of methanol was 2950 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.26% from 2700 yuan/ton on May 13th. As of May 21st, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 300 yuan/ton, which is lower than the 500 yuan/ton in early May.

Downstream R 32 production has remained stable, with a small amount of accumulated inquiries for terminal raw material inventory. Currently, there is weak support for the demand for dichloromethane.

Market forecast: According to analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data, the current terminal just needs weak support; The price of raw material methanol continues to support the cost of dichloromethane, and overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will mainly consolidate in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride has been declining recently. As of May 20th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% compared to 7100 yuan/ton on May 13th.

In terms of supply: Recently, unsaturated resin factories have been cautious in restocking, with a focus on just in demand procurement and limited support for the maleic anhydride market; With the announcement of the first bidding results by Wanhua, the main factories of maleic anhydride have gradually lowered their execution prices. At present, the supply of maleic anhydride has increased, and downstream enterprises are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. As of May 20th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6750 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6300 yuan/ton.

Upstream aspect: Recently, the ex factory prices of hydrogenated benzene in the market have remained stable, while the spot market prices have slightly decreased. In terms of supply, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have started operating lower recently, and the supply of hydrogenated benzene is slightly tight. Enterprises have a strong attitude of price support, and the ex factory prices have remained stable recently. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises are affected by profits, and it is expected that the operating rate will decline in the near future. The market expects a decline in future demand, and currently, downstream enterprises have a strong mentality of price pressure.

Recently, the international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen, with upstream naphtha prices falling and n-butane prices slightly rising. As of May 20th, the price in Shandong was around 5350 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect: Currently, the production of unsaturated resin is stable, with limited transactions. Downstream demand is average, and the main focus is on continuing essential procurement, with weak consolidation of unsaturated resin.

At present, the price monitoring of maleic anhydride is at a low to medium level in one year, a low to medium level in two years, and a low to medium level in three years. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of maleic anhydride in the past three years is 9170.35 yuan/ton, with a median value of 11893.34 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 6120.00 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 17666.67 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (lower than the lowest historical price difference in the past three years) is 970 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (lower than the highest historical price difference in the past three years) is -10576.67 yuan/ton.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that downstream unsaturated resins currently have limited procurement of maleic anhydride; In addition, Wanhua Maleic Anhydride is gradually bidding for shipments, and the supply of Maleic Anhydride in the market has increased. It is expected that the Maleic Anhydride market will be mainly weak in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of caprolactam in China on May 17th was 12900 yuan/ton, which is 0.58% higher than the average market price of 12825 yuan/ton on May 13th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of caprolactam is on the rise. The price of raw material pure benzene remains stable with minor fluctuations, and cost support is still acceptable. The downstream operating rate has increased, leading to a positive demand for raw materials and an increase in terminal demand. Some companies are planning maintenance for their caprolactam units, leading to a tightening of market supply. As of now, the settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam is 13450 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. This week, the price of pure benzene has stabilized. On May 13th, the price of pure benzene was at 8742 yuan/ton, and on May 17th, it was at 8742 yuan/ton. The price has remained stable, increasing by 27.62% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene is 8800 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized).

Downstream PA6 market. Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been strong and volatile, with spot prices rising more than falling. The domestic polymerization plant has a large and stable load with small fluctuations, and the demand for stocking by end enterprises is relatively strong. As of May 17th, the reference price for domestic PA6 is 14687.5 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the recent trend of caprolactam market is upward. The improvement in terminal demand, coupled with a decrease in market supply, has driven up the price of caprolactam. It is expected that the short-term market trend of caprolactam will continue to be strong.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the average quoted price of polyethylene glycol 400 by enterprises was 8225.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% compared to Monday’s price.

The price of polyethylene glycol in the market fluctuated slightly this week. Recently, the market price of raw material ethylene oxide has decreased, and cost support has become loose. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals and daily chemical products are mainly buying according to demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is average. Business owners have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and holders can flexibly adjust their quotations based on their own inventory situation.

Upstream ethylene oxide: On May 17th, the factory listing price of ethylene oxide in mainstream markets in various regions of China was lowered, and the ethylene oxide market in East China was executed at 6900 yuan/ton externally. Upstream ethylene oxide prices have fallen, weakening support for the polyethylene glycol market.

Upstream ethylene glycol: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of ethylene glycol on May 16th was 4425.00, a decrease of 1.26% compared to May 1st (4481.67). Since May, the market price of ethylene glycol has slightly declined, showing weak support for the polyethylene glycol market.

The polyethylene glycol analyst from Shengyishe believes that the current market transactions are mainly based on demand, and the short-term cost side may dominate the market. It is expected that in the short term, the price trend of polyethylene glycol may follow the raw material ethylene oxide, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on May 16, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7366 yuan/ton. Compared with May 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 7650 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.70%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in early May, the domestic propylene glycol market showed a weak downward trend. After Labor Day, the trading volume in the propylene glycol market was light, and the focus of the propylene glycol market continued to explore downwards. As of May 16th, the domestic propylene glycol market price reference was around 7200-7500 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market of Propylene Glycol

In terms of demand: After the May holiday, the downstream demand in the propylene glycol market is weak, with poor new orders and extremely weak overall market volume. It is difficult for the demand side to provide effective support for the propylene glycol market.

In terms of supply: In early May, the overall supply of propylene glycol was sufficient. Under the slow impact of supply and demand transmission, the pressure on the supply side of propylene glycol continued to increase. Factories actively shipped and lowered the price of propylene glycol under pressure.

Upstream epoxy propane: On May 15th, the Shandong epoxy propane market remained stable, with mainstream prices at around 9250 yuan/ton. Currently, the cost support for epoxy propane is average, and supply pressure is temporarily controllable. Downstream procurement is cautious.

Future analysis

At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the propylene glycol market, and downstream stocking is still cautious. Recently, the high prices of epoxy propane and carbon dioxide on the cost side will provide some cost support for propylene glycol in the short term, but the overall demand side is still flat. The propylene glycol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly be weak, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3162.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.80% compared to last Wednesday’s price.

Recently, the formic acid market has declined, and the mainstream quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises is between 2600-3200 yuan/ton. Recently, the main raw material methanol market price has been rising, with increased cost support. However, the demand side lacks favorable support, downstream buying intentions are not high, inquiry procurement is mainly based on demand, market transactions are average, manufacturer inventory has accumulated, and discounts are used to promote transactions. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market has declined.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current market cost support is relatively strong, but the demand side performance is flat, and market transactions are just in demand. It is expected that the formic acid market may remain stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the supply side situation.

Market analysis for this week

This week, the magnesium ingot market remained stable with an upward trend, but returned to the market after the holiday. The price of magnesium ingots was supported by the cost side, leading to an increase in prices. Additionally, some downstream enterprises have increased their centralized procurement and replenishment, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. However, downstream acceptance is relatively limited in the later stage, market trading is limited, and the support for the increase in magnesium prices is not strong. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 10th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 18466.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% compared to the previous week.

In terms of supply and demand

The overall supply and demand pattern has not undergone substantial changes. At present, some manufacturers are considering the current production factors, maintaining a firm quotation and not shipping at a low price. In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises have restocking behavior on the first day after the holiday, while most downstream enterprises still have pre holiday inventory to consume, and downstream demand has not significantly increased yet.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was between 6700-6800 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6797.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70% from the beginning of the month. There is continuous good news in the ferrosilicon market, and there is a shortage of low-priced spot goods. Currently, manufacturers are basically scheduling production orders. With the shift of the price center of ferrosilicon, the profits of enterprises continue to recover, and there are more manufacturers resuming production. There is room for increased production in the later stage, and it is expected that the price of ferrosilicon will be strong in the short term.

This week, the national blue charcoal market remained stable and slightly strong. As of May 11th, the price of medium materials in the Shenmu market was 860-960 yuan/ton, the price of small materials was 750-900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of coke surface was 610-660 yuan/ton, all of which were factory prices including taxes in cash; The mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market are 890-1000 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 660-700 yuan/ton, all of which are ex factory prices including taxes in cash.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, after a slight increase in the price of magnesium ingots, market procurement has not increased, and downstream acceptance of high prices is not high. Therefore, the further boost to the rise in magnesium prices is not enough. Both supply and demand sides mainly rely on transactions of essential demand, and it is expected that the short-term magnesium ingot market will operate steadily.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 107200.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market is mainly stable. Recently, the price of spodumene concentrate has decreased narrowly, while the price of upstream lithium carbonate has fluctuated narrowly. The cost support is slightly weak, while the supply side support is still acceptable. Downstream ternary enterprises mainly consume inventory, and high nickel demand is average. The market transaction atmosphere is flat, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is stable but weak.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on May 10th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 109200.00, an increase of 0.74% compared to May 1st (108400.00). After the holiday, the price of lithium carbonate remained stable and slightly increased, providing limited support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, short-term cost support may be average, coupled with reduced downstream demand, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. In the short term, the lithium hydroxide market may operate weakly and steadily, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.