According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose this week (4.1-4.8), with an average market price of 224960 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 228860 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a weekly increase of 1.73%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Recently, the macro market trend has been relatively strong, driving the overall strength of the non-ferrous metal market, with Shanghai Xilun Tin following the upward trend. This cycle coincided with the domestic Qingming Festival holiday, and the futures market only opened for four working days. The pre holiday trend was stable, moderate, and strong. During the Qingming Festival, London tin rose sharply, driving the Shanghai tin market to make up for losses after the holiday. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is currently little change in the operating rate of domestic refineries, and the overall domestic supply is relatively stable. In terms of imports, the recent import volume has been low, and the supply of tin ingots has not changed much. In terms of demand, tin prices have recently strengthened, and downstream industries have seen a decline in their willingness to receive goods. Even when tin prices were high, they still maintained a high demand for restocking. As prices continue to rise, downstream inquiries have shown lower intentions, and market trading has been relatively quiet. Overall, the photovoltaic industry has performed well recently, and the electronics industry is also expected to enter a seasonal peak season. The market is optimistic about demand expectations, but downstream purchases remain on demand due to the high tin prices. In the future, with the support of downstream and macro boost, it will maintain a stable, medium to strong trend in the short term. However, with the rise of tin prices, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry will decrease, and it is expected that the overall upward space in the future will be limited.

Industry data:

On April 7th, the base metal index was 1208 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.16% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 7th, the non-ferrous index was 1133 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 26.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 86.66% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 14th week of 2024 (4.1-4.5), there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 12% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are praseodymium neodymium alloy (5.71%), metallic praseodymium (5.70%), and praseodymium oxide (5.59%). There are four products that have experienced a month on month decline, with the top three products experiencing a decline being silicon metal (-0.93%), lead (-0.64%), and cobalt (-0.22%). The average increase and decrease this week was 1.71%.