According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the overall price center of nylon filament in the domestic market increased in the first quarter of 2024. The average market price of nylon filament POY (premium product; 86D/24F) in Jiangsu region this quarter was 16928 yuan/ton, an increase of 628 yuan/ton from the average price in the fourth quarter of last year, with a quarterly increase of 3.85%; The average market price of DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) is 19163 yuan/ton, an increase of 593 yuan/ton from the average price in the fourth quarter of last year, with a quarterly increase of 3.19%; The average market price of FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is 20142 yuan/ton, an increase of 568 yuan/ton compared to the fourth quarter of last year, with a quarterly increase of 2.90%.

Market trends

In January 2024, the settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam, an upstream raw material for nylon filament, was raised multiple times, causing a significant increase in the PA6 chip high-speed spinning chip market. In addition, the downstream market entered the stage of raw material replenishment, and the trading atmosphere on the market improved. Supported by multiple favorable factors, the price of nylon filament in the market was cautious and upward. As the Spring Festival approaches, the cost side trend is strong, and downstream pre holiday stocking has basically ended. Most downstream manufacturers stopped for vacation at the end of January, resulting in a slowdown in demand. Nylon filament manufacturers gradually reduced their load or stopped for vacation at the end of February, and the market gradually entered a vacation mode. Nylon filament market prices have remained stable. After the new year, the industry has good confidence in the future market, with strong price support sentiment. The upstream raw material prices have significantly increased, and the cost side support is strong, driving the high price of nylon filament market to rise. However, downstream yarn manufacturers plan to resume work relatively late, coupled with high raw material prices. Manufacturers lack the ability to accept high priced raw materials and mainly consume inventory. The demand side is constrained by the raw material market from bottom to top, and there is insufficient release of new orders on site. The market is looking for a warming atmosphere. In March, the supply of raw material caprolactam was sufficient, and the market continued to operate weakly, resulting in a significant drop in prices; The traditional peak season for textiles has seen lower than expected demand and continued to be weak, with on-demand procurement still being the main focus. Nylon manufacturers have seen an increase in production load and sufficient supply of goods, resulting in a prominent contradiction of oversupply. Affected by bullish and bearish factors, the nylon silk market continues to operate weakly, with insufficient confidence on the market and a broad decline in prices.

Supply and demand analysis

Supply side: The overall supply of nylon filament in the first quarter of 2024 decreased compared to the previous quarter. During the season, which coincides with the Spring Festival, most nylon filament manufacturers stopped for vacation in early February, and some manufacturers maintained low load operation of their equipment, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply; After the holiday, manufacturers have resumed work one after another, and on-site supply has returned to normal levels in early March. Currently, the daily production of nylon filament market is operating at around 85%.

Demand side: In the early stage of the Spring Festival, the terminal demand is good, and the business owners still have a bullish attitude towards the future market. Downstream manufacturers have a good pre holiday stocking mood, and some nylon filament manufacturers have orders as high as April; Returning after the holiday, terminal demand is weak, downstream markets resume work relatively late, coupled with high raw material prices pushing up, manufacturers have weak purchasing intentions, and they often replenish goods as needed, resulting in weak performance on the demand side. At present, the downstream market mainly consumes raw material inventory, and there is currently no significant improvement in the demand side.

market forecast

Raw material cost: In terms of caprolactam, the market supply is expected to increase, and downstream slicing markets may still purchase as needed. It is expected that the price center of caprolactam in the next quarter will shift downwards; In terms of PA6 slicing, the cost side prices are still in a downward trend, and downstream manufacturers are not willing to purchase. Business owners still hold a bearish attitude towards the future market, and it is expected that the PA6 slicing market will decline in the next quarter.

Supply side: Most manufacturers in the nylon filament market have stable equipment operation, and on-site production is at a high level. The overall supply performance of the market is abundant. In addition, there are plans to increase production capacity in Hubei in the next quarter, and some manufacturers in Fujian are expected to release all new production capacity in the next quarter. Therefore, it is expected that there will be an increase in market supply in the next quarter.

On the demand side: Currently, the downstream market demand is not as good as the same period last year, and the foreign trade market has not shown a significant improvement. Domestic demand is limited, and as the market demand off-season approaches, many businesses hold a pessimistic attitude. It is expected that the driving force from the demand side will still be weak in the next quarter.

Overall, the cost raw material caprolactam market and the PA6 chip market may continue to be weak, with a weak trend on the cost side. There may be an increase in on-site supply, and downstream markets have a certain degree of risk aversion. They purchase more on demand, and the market lacks positive news support. Therefore, it is expected that the price center of the nylon filament market will decline in the next quarter.