According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the toluene market rose in March. On March 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7210 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, the benchmark price was 7350 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94%. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; The decrease in port inventory has supported the upward trend of toluene.
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High international crude oil and external market prices provide support for toluene
In March, supply risks increased due to the geopolitical situation, and international crude oil prices rose, providing stronger support for the cost of toluene. As of March 28th, WTI05 contract settlement is $83.17 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $87.00 per barrel. Affected by the high crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia gradually rose in March, providing support for the domestic toluene market. As of March 28, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price in April was between 925-927 US dollars per ton.
Relative high-level toluene demand support for xylene production
In March, international crude oil and PX prices remained high, providing support for toluene prices. As of March 29th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 1026-1028 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1051-1053 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market prices have fluctuated narrowly.
Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending demand and weak support for toluene
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The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of the end of March, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.2.
TDI demand is sluggish, and the low starting point has weak support for toluene
In March, TDI market demand was weak, and prices sharply declined. At the beginning of the month, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with a small amount of essential purchases in the market, and the actual trading atmosphere was light; The news of discounted supply from large factories in the north in mid to late March was released, and the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. The TDI weekly guidance price of Shanghai’s large factories was significantly reduced. In addition, the downstream was affected by the sentiment of buying up rather than buying down, and the market transaction center continued to shift downwards.
The decrease in port inventory has reduced the resistance to the upward movement of Jia Ben
Domestic production of toluene has slightly increased, and single port inventory has decreased, reducing overall resistance to the upward movement of toluene. As of March 28th, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 75%; As of March 28th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 67000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China was 13000 tons, a decrease of around 40000 tons from the end of February.
Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, the international crude oil market is currently operating at a high level, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the recovery of demand in some downstream industries is slow, and the support for rigid demand is weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port decreased and the plan for equipment maintenance led to an expected continued decline in the supply of toluene. It is expected that the toluene market will continue to rise in the future.
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