Price trend

In March, the domestic ABS market continued to maintain a strong trend, with spot prices of various brands gradually increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 27th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12162.50 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+3.18% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: This month, the domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage, and the operating rate has decreased within the month. During the inspection of the PetroChina Jieyang plant, the industry plant load decreased from around 63% at the beginning of the month to around 56% at the end of the month. The low load of ABS aggregation enterprises affects the tight supply pattern in the market. The monthly output and inventory of production enterprises have both decreased, and overall, the supply side’s support for spot goods is still acceptable.

In terms of raw materials, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials in March increased, with an increase in the acrylonitrile market. The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and falls at the end of the month, with a moderate impact on the cost of acrylonitrile; The supply of acrylonitrile units will be tightened within the month, but downstream products will only maintain the necessary support for acrylonitrile; Overall, the supply and demand of acrylonitrile market at the end of the month are weak, and the market may become stagnant and consolidation in the near future.

The domestic butadiene market saw a stepwise increase in March. The continued rise in external prices has boosted market sentiment, but in the middle and late stages, most downstream industries experienced inverted profits, with the main downstream industries experiencing a gradual decline in operating load and a slightly weaker demand side dragging down. At the end of the month, the overall performance of the butadiene market transaction center slightly weakened, and it is expected that the market will enter a consolidation period in early April.

The market price of styrene remained strong after an increase in March. The price of raw material pure benzene rose in the first half of the month due to the boost of crude oil, and the positive news gradually faded in the second half. The cost support for styrene shifted from strong to flat. The supply pattern of goods remained tight throughout the month, and on-site inventory continued to decline. In the second half of the month, downstream enterprises are expected to follow up and weaken, and the styrene market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term.

In terms of demand: The resumption of work at the main ABS terminals in March is good, and the enthusiasm of downstream factories to stock up has increased in mid month. Among them, the increase in production scheduling in the home appliance industry is particularly significant, and the overall load of factories on the demand side has increased, leading to an increase in demand purchases. But as ABS prices rise, buyers’ resistance to high-end sources of goods gradually becomes apparent. At the end of the month, traders actively sold their goods, resulting in loose offers and average market support from the demand side.

Future Market Forecast

In March, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was still good, but the cost side of ABS remained relatively strong. The operation of petrochemical plants is gradually decreasing, and the supply pressure is not obvious. Due to the continuous increase in ABS prices during the month, some buyers have entered the market, and the demand side’s support for spot goods has turned from strong to flat. At the end of the month, traders engaged in price reduction and order taking operations. Currently, the long and short positions of ABS complement each other, and the ABS market may remain strong in early April due to the impact of low supply.