441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends
This week, the price of # 441 metallic silicon remained strong and upward. As of January 12th, the average price of metallic silicon in the domestic market was 15560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the previous week. In recent times, silicon metal production has decreased and silicon factories have started to resume production. At the same time, downstream short-term rigid demand procurement has been basically completed, and the market spot sentiment has cooled down, so spot prices have weakened and declined.
The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 12th is as follows:
The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15500~15600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15500~15600 yuan/ton, with an average of 15550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15200~15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 16100~16200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16150 yuan/ton.
The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal
In terms of supply:
As of January 12th, the number of furnaces opened this week was 301, an increase of 3 compared to last week. Among them, Yunnan and Fujian each increased by 2 units, Guizhou and Sichuan each decreased by 1 unit, Yunnan and Hunan each decreased by 2 units, and Chongqing increased by 1 unit. Recently, some silicon factories on the supply side have started resuming production, and some silicon factories in Chongqing and Yunnan have started production to deliver orders. However, according to the data as of the 11th, the number of weekly furnaces has increased.
In terms of inventory:
As of January 12th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 354000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 116000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 238000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), an increase of 2000 tons compared to the previous week.
In terms of demand:
This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market remained stable, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 52000 to 58000 yuan/ton. The preliminary maintenance equipment has now resumed operation, and with the release of new production capacity, the domestic supply has significantly increased. Downstream installed capacity demand is decreasing, and the demand for silicon materials in the market has slowed down recently. We need to continue to follow up, but currently the price decline space is gradually narrowing, and it may stabilize in the later stage, but we have not seen any signs of rebound
The prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy have slightly increased. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price is referenced around 13940 yuan/ton, and the current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20150 yuan/ton. The aluminum alloy market is stable, with aluminum alloy factories making small-scale purchases and placing appropriate inquiries for replenishment, resulting in an overall increase in demand.
Future Market Forecast
In summary, on the supply side, news of some silicon factories resuming production this week has emerged, while the market’s spot sentiment has cooled down and traders have loosened their willingness to raise prices; On the demand side, downstream replenishment is basically coming to an end, so both spot and market prices of silicon have begun to decline. The social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall inventory pressure is relatively high. At present, maintenance enterprises in Xinjiang have not significantly resumed production, and cost support still exists. It is expected that industrial silicon will operate in a weak and volatile manner in the short term next week. We will continue to pay attention to supply side disturbances and downstream replenishment progress after the year.
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