International crude oil demand is expected to decline, and crude oil prices will decline. Affected by this, the price center of domestic refined oil market will move downward. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of gasoline on September 25 was 5387 yuan / ton, down 1.31% from the beginning of the week; on September 25, the price of diesel oil was 4700 yuan / ton, down 1.93% from the beginning of the week.
This week’s EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory continued to decline, which was good for the international crude oil price; however, negative news such as OPEC’s international discount sales of crude oil, the reduction of crude oil price expectations by Barkley and other institutions, the resumption of production of Libya’s crude oil and the aggravation of the epidemic situation in Europe continue to stimulate the international crude oil market. ETI crude oil prices fell 2.59% this week, while Brent crude oil prices fell 2.29%.
In terms of gasoline demand, near the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, residents’ driving trips increased, but the temperature dropped, the fuel consumption of gasoline air conditioning decreased, and the overall consumption of gasoline maintained a rigid demand. In addition, the international oil price went down, and the domestic oil product market prices declined slightly. In terms of diesel demand, entering the “golden nine silver ten” peak demand season, the demand for diesel oil in engineering, infrastructure, logistics and other industries is supported, but the demand is not significantly increased. Although there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream before the festival, the diesel market is mainly low-cost and on-demand replenishment. Coupled with the downward trend of international oil prices, the diesel market is slightly sluggish.
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On September 25th, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 73%, and the start-up load of the refinery remained at a high level, and the domestic refined oil supply was sufficient.
Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the international crude oil market demand is expected to decline, and the crude oil price is weak; however, the peak of replenishment after the mid autumn National Day Festival is expected, and the refined oil price is expected to usher in an upward trend.