1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of steam coal is mainly stable this week. On September 21, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 594 yuan / ton, and on September 25, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at about 598 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.67% and a year-on-year increase of 1.66%. On September 24, the commodity index of steam coal was 71.78, unchanged with yesterday, down 30.32% from 103.01 (2011-11-15), and 60.58% higher than the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of production area, Shaanxi cement chemical industry has a good purchasing enthusiasm, most coal mine quotation is temporarily stable, and some coal mines are slightly increased. The price of coal in Ordos region of Inner Mongolia has been rising steadily. Compared with Shaanxi Province, the number of coal mines with price adjustment is relatively small. The price of a few coal mines has increased by about 5-10 yuan, while the price of other coal mines is temporarily stable. With the holiday approaching, the inspection of the main coal producing areas is upgraded, coupled with the restriction of coal pipe tickets, the coal supply tends to be tight.

In terms of downstream power plants, the mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal in the port is about 593-603 yuan / ton. The daily consumption of power plants is low, the inventory of Beigang is fluctuating downward, and the supply of high-quality goods is in short supply. The port coal price is close to this year’s high and red range. In September, the precipitation dropped seasonally and the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir decreased significantly. Hydropower is still stronger than in previous years, but the substitution of thermal power will become weaker. Power plant replenishment started. In the middle and late September, the power plant ushered in seasonal replenishment cycle, thus boosting the price of steam coal.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on September 24, the national coal price rose steadily in mid September. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: anthracite (washing medium block, volatile content ≤ 8%) price is 866.7 yuan / ton, which is 26.7 yuan / ton higher than the previous period, or 3.2%. The price of ordinary blended coal (the mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 462.9 yuan / ton, up 19.8 yuan / ton or 4.5% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi mixed coal (better quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 526 yuan / ton, an increase of 26.4 yuan / ton or 5.5% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high-quality blended coal, calorific value of 5500 kcal) was 587.8 yuan / ton, up 29.5 yuan / ton or 5.3% compared with the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (produced by Datong, with calorific value of 5800 kcal) was 618.3 yuan / ton, up 35.2 yuan / ton or 6% compared with the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content < 1%) was 1270.0 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period. The above data show that China’s coking coal continued to maintain stability in mid September, and the prices of anthracite and steam coal rose sharply.

Analysts from the business agency believe that: in the near future, hydropower generation has maintained a high level, which has squeezed the thermal power plants. In addition, the atmosphere in autumn has declined, the demand for electricity for residents has been weakened, the characteristics of electricity coal consumption in the off-season are obvious, and the energy of end-users to replenish the reservoir has weakened. According to the data, the daily coal consumption of zheneng power, one of the six major coastal power plants, was 107000 tons on September 23, a decrease of 27000 tons compared with 134000 tons at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 14000 tons compared with the same period last year. In a comprehensive view, the short-term steam coal price may maintain the consolidation trend, which depends on the downstream market demand.