1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic toluene market fell slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3410 yuan / ton, down 2.35% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of toluene fell slightly, affected by the lower demand for blended oil and solvent, the demand for toluene fell, the market trading atmosphere was not active, and the price was weak. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3300 yuan / ton. Due to the continuous deterioration of global epidemic situation in many places and the increasing uncertainty of energy and fuel demand, the aftermarket continued to pay attention to the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the 2q2020 economic data of various countries successively disclosed.

Upstream, crude oil, this week’s international oil prices continued to rise slightly from Monday to Thursday, fell back on Friday to adjust. At present, the crude oil price is generally in the oscillation range, and there is no sign of change in the short term. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $0.59/barrel to close at $43.71/barrel, up 1.37%. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. Therefore, we must not be paralyzed by the boring market. Under the background of large-scale water release, it is difficult to judge the price rise and fall by traditional logic in the market trend. The future market pays close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $40-44 / barrel.

In terms of TDI downstream, the market has begun to stabilize. For domestic goods with bills of lading, the reference for outbound offers of domestic goods is 10200-10400 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 10500-10600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be stable. In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4800 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 524 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 542 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

In the short term, the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling wells and EIA inventory situation are considered by toluene analysts of business club chemical branch. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand and trend, and the 2q2020 economic data of various countries. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic market toluene price will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.