According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market price continued to weaken since October 9. As of October 20, the market average price was 5037 yuan / ton, down 3.28%, down 31.98% year on year.

In recent years, the maintenance of multiple PTA units has pushed the industry into the de stocking cycle. However, due to the abundant flow of goods and the pressure of new units being put into operation, the PTA rebound drive is not strong. At the same time, the raw material inventory of polyester factory is on the high side, and there is no continuous transaction volume, and the demand side is insufficient. Specifically:

Enterprise name capacity device dynamics

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped on October 18 and the restart time is to be determined.

Honggang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped for maintenance on October 14 and planned to restart on October 28.

Yadong Petrochemical 70 produced qualified products on October 14, and the unit has been shut down for maintenance since October 9.

Yishanhua 225 reduced load by 50% and planned to recover within 15 days.

Hengli Petrochemical 220 overhauled No. 1 2.2 million ton PTA production line on October 8, and overhauled No. 2 2.2 million ton PTA production line after line 1 was overhauled.

In terms of PTA equipment maintenance, 86.89% of the starting load as of October 17 was 4.16% lower than 91.05% on October 9. However, in the expectation that new production capacity will be put into production soon, the positive boost is limited. In particular, recently, the single unit test run of the PTA project with an annual output of 1.2 million tons of China Thailand Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has come to an end, marking that the linkage test run of PTA plant is about to start, which will help fuel the feeding test run of PTA plant. The expected news of the production has a certain negative impact on the market.

The price trend of PX in raw material market is stable temporarily, and the price of domestic mainstream factories is 6800 yuan / ton. In terms of units, the operation of the 600000 ton new unit in Hongrun is stable, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical unit is stable, 50% of Urumqi petrochemical unit is started, one line of Fuhai Chuang aromatics unit is started, and other units are temporarily stable during the maintenance of CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical unit.

The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is stable at about 80%, and the price continues to be explored. On October 17, the closing price of PX market in Asia dropped by 4 USD / ton, and the closing price was 773-775 USD / ton fob in South Korea and 793-795 USD / ton CFR in China.

The starting load of downstream polyester was maintained at about 89%, with local preferential sales promotion but general production and sales response and flat market trend. At present, weaving elastic inquiry has fallen sharply, and some mainstream factories have reduced their preferential policies, including polyester POY (150D / 48F) at 7150-7400 yuan / ton, DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) at 8950-9200 yuan / ton, and FDY (150D / 96F) at 7350-7550 yuan / ton, creating a new low in the history of the year. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been reduced to around 77%, the terminal market is cautious and wait-and-see mood is not reduced, and the grey fabric inventory digestion is slow.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business club, believes that PTA plant maintenance news has certain support for the price, but considering that xinfengming’s 1.1 million ton new plant is planned to be put into operation by the end of October and Hengli’s 2.2 million ton plan to be put into operation at the beginning of January next year. In the near future, the downstream polyester demand has gradually transited to the off-season. Influenced by the uncertain macro environment at home and abroad, the terminal textile and garment industry is in decline, and the polyester production and marketing volume is limited. It is expected that PTA market will face a pattern of accumulation. In addition, the cost support is limited under the circumstances of large-scale PX production capacity and low crude oil price. According to the comprehensive analysis, PTA may still have a small rebound in the short term, but in the long term, the focus will further move down.