As of September 29th, the DBP price was 10351.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 13.73% compared to the DOP price of 9101.67 yuan/ton on September 1st; Compared to September 10th, the DBP price of 10185 yuan/ton fluctuated and consolidated, with an increase of 1.64%. In early September, phthalic anhydride and n-butanol rose synchronously, with strong cost pull. In the middle and late of the month, phthalic anhydride at the raw material end fell first, followed by n-butanol weakening, and cost support loosened; In September, DBP showed a reverse trend of cost push up in the first half of the year and fluctuating consolidation in the second half of the year.
The price of isooctanol first rose and then fell in September
On September 29th, the price of isooctanol was 9116.67 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 3.21% compared to the price of 8833.33 yuan/ton on September 1st. Affected by geopolitical factors, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. In September, the overall trend of isooctanol market showed an inverted V-shaped pattern of “significant surge at the beginning of the month, decline in the middle of the month, and weak oscillation in the later part of the month”.
The price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell in September
As of September 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 9933.33 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 5.67% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 9400 yuan/ton on September 1st. In early September, the price of phthalic anhydride was pushed up due to equipment maintenance and tight supply; The release of new sources of goods in the mid to late period and the decline in phthalic anhydride prices were the main drivers of DBP’s downward trend in the mid to late period.
The price of n-butanol rose in September and then fell back
On September 29th, the price of n-butanol was 8533.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 12.78% compared to the price of 7566.67 yuan/ton on September 1st. The DBP price in September followed the fluctuations of the n-butanol industry chain, with a strong trend in the first half of the year and a fluctuating correction after the middle of the month, weakening the support for DBP’s upward trend.
Demand side: Adequate demand, insufficient increment
Traditional downstream only maintains seasonal demand, but finished product orders from factories are generally average, mostly collected as needed and rarely stocked up; During the price increase phase, downstream consumers resist high prices. The expectation of “Golden September” fell through, and there was no obvious traditional peak season concentrated replenishment market in September. The realization of peak season benefits was limited, and the increment was insufficient.
Outlook for the coming period
Analysts believe that in the first half of the year, the rise in prices was driven by the rise in phthalic anhydride and n-butanol, but downstream demand did not increase synchronously; In the second half of the year, raw materials weakened, coupled with downstream wait-and-see measures, leading to a rapid price correction; On the supply side, there is a negative impact maintenance hedge to suppress the sharp decline, resulting in an overall weak and fluctuating pattern. The DBP cost driven market in September resulted in lower than expected demand during the peak season, and the short-term DBP market was mainly volatile and weak in the future.