Price performance

At the end of July, calcium carbide fell to a low level (about 2100 yuan/ton), and in August, it began to rebound and rise. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark price was 2360 yuan/ton, which stabilized at 2500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of nearly 6%; The ex factory price in the main production area of Wuhai has risen from 2100 yuan/ton to 2450-2550 yuan/ton, with a rapid increase in the first half of the year and a stable operation at a high level in the second half of the year.
1. Periodic contraction on the supply side (the main reason for this round of rise)
Electricity consumption control and spot electricity prices have risen in the main production areas of Northwest Inner Mongolia, causing enterprises to avoid peak production and reduce load by shutting down boilers, resulting in a significant decrease in market commodity volume; At the beginning of the month, multiple calcium carbide factories took the initiative to control production, and the circulation of spot goods tightened. The tight supply of goods led to a reluctance to sell and a rise in sentiment. Although there are still export sources of integrated supporting equipment, the short-term supply gap supports price rebound.
2. Bottom lifting on the cost side
Raw material blue charcoal slightly increased its quotation in early August, with low coking production and low blue charcoal inventory; The cost of electricity itself accounts for the majority of the cost of calcium carbide, and the disturbance of electricity prices further raises production costs, forming a rigid cost support for calcium carbide, and weakening the willingness of enterprises to sell at low prices.
3. Downstream replenishment expectations drive procurement recovery
The PVC industry has entered a centralized maintenance cycle. Although the demand for terminal real estate is weak, the raw materials are low in the early stage, and downstream restocking is done at low prices, resulting in temporary release of essential needs; Combined with the market’s expectation of early stocking during the traditional Golden September peak season in September, the purchasing enthusiasm has improved compared to July, forming a marginal improvement in supply and demand.

Weak demand: The production of PVC downstream pipes and profiles is relatively low, and product orders are lower than expected. The overall downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and there is no sustained strong demand explosion;
Integrated chlor alkali enterprises still have an increase in the export of calcium carbide, and there is a greater elasticity for resuming production under high profits. After a significant price surge, resuming production will suppress further upward potential;
In the medium term, the industry is still in a pattern of overcapacity, and this round belongs to a low-level recovery rebound, not a trending upward trend.
Future logic
August belongs to the bottom rebound market driven by supply contraction; Focus on two points in September: ① Whether the electricity policies in the main production areas have been relaxed and the pace of resuming production of shutdown devices; ② Actual realization status of PVC real estate infrastructure terminals. If the resumption of production increases and the demand during peak season is falsified, calcium carbide is likely to fluctuate at a high level, and there will be insufficient momentum to continue its sharp rise.

Calcium carbide rebounded from its low point in July in August, with supply contraction caused by northwest power control and support from the cost of blue carbon. Coupled with downstream low inventory replenishment, prices rose; But the terminal demand is weak, and the upward space is limited. The market is mainly recovering and rebounding at a low level.