Since September (as of 15:00 on September 18th), the domestic methanol market in East China has continued to rise from 3250 yuan/ton to around 3983 yuan/ton, with a significant price increase of 22.56% during the period, a month on month increase of 41.76%, and a year-on-year increase of 76.12%.
Recently, the import supply of methanol along the coast has remained low, and there has been no significant increase in domestic supply supplementation. The overall coastal methanol market still shows tight supply, which provides strong support for prices. In addition, with the approaching Double Festival and downstream enterprises’ stocking demand, it supports the upward trend of the domestic methanol market.
As of the close on September 18th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2610, opened at 3450 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3515 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3395 yuan/ton. It closed at 3433 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 88 yuan or 2.50% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 2058212, the position is 288276, and the daily increase is -14219.
On the cost side, coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized, continuing to operate strongly, supporting the high volatility of methanol. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, the overall production of olefins has rebounded, while the traditional downstream is constrained by price issues and the load has decreased. Pre holiday demand support still exists. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall recovery of the equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization and production output. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on September 17th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $617.5-618.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 150-152 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 456-458 euros/ton.
Future forecast: Domestic supply is tight, downstream pre holiday stocking demand still exists, and the market buying atmosphere is driving prices to continue rising. Overall, analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market may experience high-level consolidation.