Ethylene glycol prices hit a new high in nearly 4 years in September

The price of ethylene glycol will soar in 2026, and the current price has reached a new high in nearly 4 years. As of September 4th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 6370 yuan/ton, an increase of 64.85% from the market average price of 3864.17 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1st).
The price of ethylene glycol for paper cargo in East China ports has dropped sharply due to a sharp decrease in incoming shipments, resulting in historically low port inventory and tight supply. The market basis is high, and there is a transaction with a spot basis quotation of+1150 for delivery today.
Port paper goods are mainly priced based on basis, with prices closely following fluctuations in the futures market. Recently, the futures price of ethylene glycol has risen significantly, and the base quotes of port paper cargo ethylene glycol base traders are high and firm.
Domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol spot (loose water, tax included, self pickup) vehicle manufacturers have raised the auction price at 6200-6400 yuan/ton. At present, the manufacturer’s quotation is relatively high, and the profits of traders who hoard goods in the early stage can be reduced.
In September 2026, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port was extremely low
On September 3, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 139000 tons, a decrease of 277000 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on July 30, which was 416000 tons.
At present, the inventory of ethylene glycol at ports is extremely low, setting a new historical low.
Reasons for the significant increase in ethylene glycol prices in 2026:
Recently, the price of ethylene glycol has risen significantly. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has disrupted shipping, resulting in a significant reduction in imported goods. On the other hand, the concentrated maintenance of multiple sets of coal production facilities in China has led to a decline in domestic output. The inventory of ports in East China is at a historical low, and the spot buffer is insufficient; On the other hand, crude oil and coal have raised production costs, while the traditional peak season for polyester in the second half of the year has provided strong demand support. The market’s expectation of tight supply has driven inventory replenishment behavior, and multiple factors have jointly driven the strengthening of ethylene glycol prices. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. Geopolitical conflicts impact imports (core)
About 28% of China’s ethylene glycol relies on imports, with over 60% of imported goods coming from the Middle East. The escalation of the US Iran confrontation has hindered shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi and Iranian installations have reduced their load/stopped, resulting in shipment disruptions; The monthly import volume has plummeted from 600000 tons in previous years to 150000 to 260000 tons, resulting in a significant reduction in supply and long shipping schedules. Even if navigation resumes, it will take more than 25 days for goods to arrive at the port, making it difficult to make up for the shortfall in the short term.
2. Domestic supply contraction
In July and August, multiple main coal to ethylene glycol units in China underwent centralized maintenance, involving a total production capacity of over 3.5 million tons, resulting in a decline in domestic output; After the restart of the oil production unit, the load ramp up is slow, and the domestic increment is limited, which is not enough to fully make up for the import gap.
3. Port inventory drops to historically low levels
The inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China has rapidly decreased to a nearly five-year low, with almost no buffer inventory. The supply of spot goods is tight, and the basis has significantly strengthened. A small gap will amplify the elasticity of spot price increases, driving futures to rise synchronously.
4. Cost increase
The conflict in the Middle East has driven up international crude oil prices, while the rising prices of naphtha and ethylene have increased the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil; At the same time, coal prices are relatively strong, and the cost of coal production routes is rising synchronously, which forms a bottom support for prices and drives the sentiment of the entire energy and chemical sector to strengthen.

5. Maintain rigidity in downstream demand and boost market expectations
Polyester enters the traditional peak season in the second half of the year, and polyester factories have stable demand; The market is concerned about the continued tight supply of goods, and traders and downstream actively replenish inventory and lock up goods, further exacerbating the shortage of spot goods and amplifying market gains.
Prediction of Future Price Trends for Ethylene Glycol:
Short term (September October): Geographically dominant, spot prices tend to be strong, but upward potential is limited
At present, the inventory of ports in East China is at a low level in the past five years. If the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz fails to repair significantly and imports continue to be low, coupled with delayed shipping schedules, there will still be strong support for spot prices in recent months, and prices will remain volatile at a high level. But after the price rose, the profits of domestic coal and oil production facilities were restored, and maintenance facilities were gradually restarted, resulting in an increase in domestic supply; At the same time, high prices squeeze the profits of polyester, and there is a risk of negative pressure reduction in polyester and weaving. Negative demand feedback will constrain further upward momentum, and the upward momentum will gradually weaken. The biggest risk variable is the situation in the Middle East. If navigation resumes and there is a backlog of cargo arriving at the port, spot goods will quickly come under pressure and fall back.
Mid term (Q4): Price center of gravity is highly likely to fall back
On the one hand, domestic maintenance equipment has been fully restored, and multiple sets of large-scale new production capacity were put into operation in the fourth quarter, resulting in a significant increase in domestic supply; On the other hand, once Middle Eastern shipping eases and imported goods flow back, ports will shift from destocking to accumulating inventory. Combined with the downstream “Golden September and Silver October” peak season not meeting expectations, polyester production has continued to decline due to continuous losses, and supply and demand pressures have been released. The price center of ethylene glycol will decline, and the price premium brought by geography will gradually disappear.
Medium to long term (2027): The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the valuation center shifts downwards
This round of upward trend is a temporary market caused by geopolitical disturbances, and has not changed the background of overcapacity in the industry. There will continue to be new production capacity added in the future, but the growth rate of polyester demand is limited, and the overall supply pressure is relatively high. If there are no major external shocks, the overall price will return to a weak and volatile pattern.