According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate this week is 6150.00 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic light potassium carbonate is 6225.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.22%. The current price is up 1.22% month on month, and the current price is down 2.35% compared with last year.

This week, the domestic potash market rose, the supply was tight, and the quantity of goods delivered from various regions was not large. Downstream factories took more goods on demand to curb the price rise, and the price rose slightly. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the mainstream factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate in China is about 5900-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

On December 4, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 2020 yuan / ton, and the quotation is up by 70 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2300 yuan / T potassium chloride, which was stable temporarily. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Potassium chloride market continued to rise, can give potassium carbonate a certain cost support.

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the domestic potassium chloride price is on the upward trend in the near future, which gives support to the cost of potassium carbonate, but the downstream demand for raw materials is not high. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

According to the current daily price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province, the average price of formaldehyde rose by 1.67% on a year-on-year basis, which was 1.67% higher than that of the current commodity price in Shandong Province.

In recent years, the domestic market price of formaldehyde showed a downward trend. As of December 3, the mainstream factory quotation in Central China was about 11430 yuan / ton, that of mainstream manufacturers in North China was 950 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 1198 yuan / ton. Linyi Yinhe formaldehyde production capacity is 120000 tons / year, and the formaldehyde plant is normal, with a daily output of 200 tons. Recently, the formaldehyde plant in Shandong Province has been in normal operation. Under the control of environmental protection in Henan Province, some enterprises started their business in a narrow range; on the whole, the atmosphere of trading on the floor was relatively light, the actual transaction was general, and the formaldehyde market continued to decline.

Situation of upstream methanol: the transaction price of Shandong methanol in Lubei market is 1980-2000 yuan / ton, which is delivered to spot exchange. The transaction is general, and the freight is slightly increased. The market price of methanol in the south of Shandong Province has temporarily stabilized at around 2000-2010 yuan / ton, and Linyi has received the local mainstream goods of 2000 yuan / ton and delivered them to the place without tax. The quoted price of logistics goods is around 1950 yuan / ton. The transaction volume of methanol market in central Shandong was stable to 2150 yuan / ton, while that of peripheral goods was stable to 1990-2000 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the inventory of traditional downstream wood board enterprises is higher, the demand for formaldehyde is weakened, the field is cold and clean, and the support of demand side is general. Formaldehyde market is going down all the way.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol has stopped falling and stabilized. Under the condition of weak cost support, the formaldehyde factory’s mentality is empty. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business society expect that the formaldehyde price in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the near future.

1、 Price data

As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic hydrotreating and hydrotreating naphtha was 4917.50 yuan / ton, up 2.82% from 4782.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of hydrotreated naphtha was about 5000 yuan / ton.

The naphtha commodity index on November 27 was 60.69, up 0.25 points compared with yesterday, 40.86% lower than 102.62 points (2012-09-24), and 43.68% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Naphtha prices continue to rise this week, low inventory, no pressure to ship.

Upstream: in November, the international oil price continued to rise, and has been rising for four consecutive weeks. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation. WTI crude oil prices rose 7.76% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 6.20%.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic toluene market fluctuated slightly and rose this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3580 yuan / ton, up 1.13% month on month. The domestic xylene market showed a volatile trend this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3640 yuan / ton, up 0.28% month on month. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 545 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 563 US dollars / ton CFR China.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 47th week of 2020 (11.23-11.27), among which there are 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the total commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities of increase are liquefied natural gas (8.51%), WTI crude oil (7.76%) and Brent crude oil (6.29%). There were two kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products were petroleum coke (- 5.88%) and methanol (- 0.35%). This week, the average rise and fall was 2.51%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of the business agency believe that the sharp rise in international crude oil has supported the cost of naphtha. At present, the inventory of refineries is low and the pressure on shipment is not great. It is expected that the price of hydrotreated naphtha in the near future will rise steadily, with the price of about 5100 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price trend of cryolite market this week has been stable, with the average price of 5800 yuan / ton in Henan at the weekend, and the price was stable during the week, down 4.92% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic cryolite price trend is stable. As of the 29th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 5500-6800 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 5000-6200 yuan / ton. In terms of the installation situation of domestic enterprises, Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. has a production capacity of 30000 tons / year, and the plant has started to operate about 70% of the plant. Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. has a full plant load and starts normal operation. Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. has an annual capacity of 40000 tons of cryolite. The plant is in normal operation, and there is no plan to stop the train. At present, the cryolite market is in sufficient stock, and the downstream demand is general. Enterprises mainly talk about a single one, and the transaction is OK.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite manufacturers started operation normally, the on-site supply of goods was sufficient, the downstream demand was insufficient, and the fluorite market was in shock operation. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, at present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to move down, the market demand is strong, and the supply is oriented well. It is expected that the market will be sorted up in the future.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the cryolite manufacturers are operating normally, the market supply is sufficient, there is no obvious fluctuation in demand, the market transaction is general, the downstream electrolytic aluminum is not enough to support the cryolite industry, and the short-term cryolite market continues to run weakly and stably, with specific attention to the market demand.

Since the middle of November, the price of natural rubber has stabilized and rebounded, and the position gradually transits to the contract in May, and the market remains stable. At present, natural rubber fundamentals remain healthy as a whole, which has a certain supporting effect on the price.

macroscopic

Recently, the process of power transition in the United States has started, and Biden will take office in the White House on January 20, 2021. An important short-term uncertainty has been eliminated. At present, the policy orientation and personnel arrangement announced by Biden team are more or less the shadow of the Obama era. The new Biden administration will be the successor and successor of the Obama administration at least in the early stage, with strong policy predictability, and the loose monetary policy environment of the Federal Reserve will continue at least until the third quarter of next year.

At present, Sino US relations are crucial to the recovery of world economic growth. Biden team believes that it is impractical and counterproductive to fully decouple from China. This is consistent with the view of the Chinese government. Sino US relations are likely to turn into a situation of both competition and cooperation, which will be milder than in the trump period, which is conducive to the recovery of the world economy after the epidemic. However, it is not appropriate to have too much extravagant expectation on Sino US relations. The new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation is exactly the government’s initiative response to the challenges.

supply

Yunnan, the main natural rubber production area in China, will gradually enter the cutting stop period, and Hainan will also enter the cutting stop period in about one month. At present, the planting area of rubber producing areas in China is relatively stable. Due to the early epidemic situation, price and weather factors, the overall cutting rate is low this year.

In addition to the yield factor, the glue structure also faces some adjustments. The new concentrated latex project of Yunnan manganese Rubber Co., Ltd. was completed and put into operation, with an investment of 710 million yuan in the first phase, with an annual production capacity of 20000 tons of concentrated latex, 2000 tons of clear rubber, 150000 beds of latex pads and 1 million latex pillows per year. Part of the rubber water in Yunnan production area must be diverted to make latex, which has an impact on the production of all latex delivery products.

Affected by the shortage of labor and transportation bottleneck caused by weather and epidemic situation, the annual output of the main production areas in Southeast Asia is more likely to decline. According to the statistical data of the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC), the global cumulative production of natural rubber from January to September in 2020 is 7.816 million tons, which is about 600000 tons lower than that in the same period of 2019; from January to September of 2020, the cumulative production of natural rubber in China is 426000 tons, which is 104000 tons lower than that in the same period of 2019, with a decrease rate of 20%.

However, more than 2000 workers in the world’s largest rubber glove supplier in Malaysia have been confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus. The Malaysian government ordered the closure of 28 factories and dormitories affiliated to the company step by step and implemented isolation and virus screening. At present, the main production areas of Southeast Asia are in the period of seasonal high yield, and the repeated epidemic situation has cast a shadow on the industry.

stock

According to the data released in the previous period, as of November 20, the natural rubber inventory of the exchange was 142000 tons, with a quarter on month decrease of 119000 tons, or 45%. With the expiration of the contract in November, the inventory of the new rubber warehouse receipt after the delivery of the old rubber was at the low level in the past years, and the delivery products were less, which continued to affect the futures price.

On November 23, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued the business guidelines for the trading of natural rubber extended warehouse receipts (for Trial Implementation). The extended warehouse receipts refer to the natural rubber warehouse receipts issued by the designated delivery warehouse recognized by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which have exceeded the validity period of the standard warehouse receipts and meet the time limit recognized by the exchange. The development of extended warehouse receipt business will further enrich the ability of the exchange to serve the real economy and enhance the pricing authority of the exchange. However, on the other hand, it may weaken the disturbance weight of factors such as insufficient delivery on the price.

In the spot market, the rubber inventory in Qingdao has maintained a downward trend in the near future, and the inventory pressure at the spot side has slightly eased, but the inventory de stocking process may not be smooth sailing.

demand

The national Standing Committee announced in mid November that the strategy of expanding domestic demand should be implemented to further promote consumption. In terms of automobiles, all localities will be encouraged to increase the number plate index. We will carry out a new round of automobile going to the countryside and exchanging old cars for new ones. We will encourage rural residents in areas where conditions permit to buy trucks of 3.5 tons or less and passenger cars with displacement of 1.6 liters or less. We will also give subsidies to residents who have eliminated the emission standards of National III or below and purchased new cars. In the new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation, policy support is conducive to the release of demand. However, in the international aspect, due to some bottleneck problems in transportation, tire export may be affected in the short term.

Statistics show that the operating rate of domestic semi steel tire manufacturers last week was 71.19%, and that of all steel tire manufacturers was 74.04%. The overall situation was relatively stable, and the demand remained stable.

To sum up, at present, the short-term uncertainty on the macro level is basically eliminated, the phenomenon of output decline and glue structure adjustment at the supply side, domestic policy support to promote automobile consumption at the demand side, the overall situation of the fundamentals is relatively healthy, and the rubber price will still be supported.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite fell slightly in November. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2616.67 yuan / ton, which was 0.21% lower than that of 2622.22 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.54%.

The price of fluorite in 2014 was stable and slightly decreased. Recently, the manufacturers reported that the fluorite orders were in general, the on-site merchants’ shipment was poor, the fluorite supply was normal, and the on-site price was slightly lower. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the on-site mines and flotation devices are under normal operation, and the fluorite in the yard is in general condition, and the price of fluorite market is mainly fluctuating. In November, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price declined slightly, and the downstream terminal was mainly purchased on demand. As of the end of the month, the 97 fluorite wet powder price in Inner Mongolia was 2400-2500 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Fujian was 2400-2700 yuan / ton, the 97 fluorite wet powder price in Henan was 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and the 97 fluorite wet powder price in Jiangxi Province was 2500-2700 yuan / ton There has been a fall back.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite decreased slightly. As of the end of the month, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 8360 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.48% in November. The downward trend of hydrofluoric acid market price has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite price is slightly lower. In recent years, the sales situation of automobile industry is general, and the trend of refrigerant market downstream of the terminal has fallen down. The demand for refrigerant has not improved significantly. The recovery of foreign economy is not obvious. The export situation of refrigerant terminal is general. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales service is weak. As a whole, foreign demand has not improved significantly. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price drops slightly. However, the market price is not available. The mainstream price of R22 in large domestic enterprises is 12500-14500 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of R134a is low, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream start-up is not high, and the demand for R134a is still cold. Recently, the purchasing situation of downstream industry is general, and the price trend of fluorite is slightly down.

Generally speaking, the market situation of downstream refrigerant industry is general, but the recent market price of hydrofluoric acid is weak. In addition, the fluorite market reflects the poor market situation in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the fluorite market price may fall slightly in the short term.

Since the middle of November, the LPG market has been on the “slide”, showing a continuous downward trend, until the 23rd, the market stopped falling and rising. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong market was 3233.33 yuan / ton on November 15, and 3080.00 yuan / ton on November 23, with a decrease of 4.74%. On the 24th, it rebounded and rose by 1.95% in a single day. The quoted price was 3140.00 yuan / ton, up 1.29% compared with November 1.

As of November 24, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specification, mode of transportation, regional mainstream transaction price

Civil gas and automobile transportation in North China 3100-3200 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in East China: 3230-3240 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China: 3300-3320 yuan / ton

Domestic gas transportation by truck in Shandong Province: 3050-3150 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Northeast China: 2650-2800 yuan / ton

Domestic gas and automobile transportation along the river: 3260-3460 yuan / ton

Since the middle of November, the civil market of liquefied petroleum gas in Shandong Province has been continuously declining. Due to the lack of obvious favorable support in the market, the downstream mentality is cautious, the wait-and-see mood increases, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, manufacturers’ shipment is blocked, and the inventory is gradually increasing, so it is forced to reduce the ex factory price and stimulate downstream market entry. However, due to the weak terminal demand, the market trading atmosphere is slightly light, and the price is continuously weak.

On November 24, Shandong LPG civil market rebounded, with a single day increase of nearly 2%. Due to the continuous rise of international crude oil, the news boosted the market mentality. In addition to the heavy inventory pressure of some manufacturers, the ex factory prices were generally raised, ranging from 30-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere was good, and some manufacturers’ inventories were released. At present, the mainstream transaction price of Shandong civil gas market is around 3050-3150 yuan / ton. At present, the supply in Shandong is relatively stable, the demand is still weak, the inventory of manufacturers is mostly in a controllable state, and the mentality is still strong.

On November 24, the futures market and the spot market rebounded hand in hand. The opening price of LPG futures 2101 was 3565, the highest price was 3580, the lowest price was 3525, the closing price was 3560, the previous settlement price was 3529, the settlement price was 3550, up 31, or 0.88%, the trading volume was 57554, the position was 51596, and the daily increase was 4108. (unit: yuan / ton)

Currently, supported by international crude oil, Shandong civil gas market rebounds. The market supply is relatively stable, the inventory of manufacturers is under control, and the mentality is relatively strong. However, the ability of the downstream to accept high prices is limited. If the market is still not good in the short term, the rise of the civil gas market may be hindered, and horizontal consolidation is the main trend.

According to the business club’s big list data, last week (11.16-20), the domestic adipic acid market rose slightly, by 2.46%, and the increase slowed down significantly. And most of the dealers’ quotations maintain a stable trend, East China, South China and other regions gradually stop rising. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid is 8200-8500 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in November, about 80%. The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was moderate. Dealers usually take the goods normally. At present, there are signs that the manufacturers’ inventory is gradually over to the dealers, and the dealers are also showing signs of high price accumulation.

Market trend of pure benzene

In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price stands at $40, and the range adjustment has weakened the impact on the downstream chemical industry. However, the business agency recorded a sharp rise in pure benzene this month, with an increase of more than 18% as of November 20. As shown in the figure above, the price of adipic acid is also maintained at a high level due to the pressure of cost (as shown in the figure above). However, since last week, the price of pure benzene has dropped slightly, and the cost may be lost later There is still room for prices to go down.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of downstream demand, the terminal performance was rigid and stable. Although the chemical industry recovered steadily in the late stage of the epidemic, the operating rate of downstream factories increased slightly. In addition, the rigid consumption of polyurethane in the downstream was stable, and the market of PA66 also rose sharply. Up to now, the price of PA66 rose by 30% in November, as shown in the figure above. However, the price rise of PA66 slowed down in the last weekend, and it is expected that the upward space in the later period will be limited.

In the later stage, it seems that the market of adipic acid is mainly driven by the upstream and downstream, and whether the price of adipic acid can rise in the later period depends on whether the demand can keep up with it. However, at present, with the approach of winter, the downstream operating rate may decline. At present, the cost of pure benzene also shows signs of decline. The space for downstream PA66 to continue to advance is also limited. It is expected that adipic acid will maintain a high level in the near future and continue to rise The possibility of falling back is not ruled out.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic baking soda is weak. From November 16 to November 20, the average price in the domestic market was 1556.67 yuan / ton. On November 19, the bicarbonate commodity index was 103.32, flat with yesterday, down 15.09% from 121.68 (October 21, 2020), and 3.32% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on September 06, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business club, the price of baking soda is weak. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan Province is falling, and the mainstream market quotation is about 1350-1500 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the price of baking soda will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of sodium bicarbonate in Hebei Province has been lowered, and the mainstream quotation in the market is about 1450-1600 yuan / ton, and the downstream is mostly purchased on demand.

As for raw materials, the domestic soda ash market is temporarily stable, the market atmosphere is light, the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the weak operation of soda ash in the later stage will be dominated. The price of soda ash in North China is weak. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general and the overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable in the short term. The price of light soda ash is about 1700-1800 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak and stable in the short term.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food is weak, and the price of sodium bicarbonate is weak. According to the analysts of the business agency, the domestic soda ash market is temporarily stabilized, the market atmosphere is light, the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude is the main factor, and it is expected that the weak operation of soda ash will be the main trend in the later stage. In terms of downstream, the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food is not strong, and the transaction of sodium bicarbonate is general. It is expected that the price of sodium bicarbonate will be mainly weak and stable in the later stage.

In the half of November, the LPG market was greatly affected by international crude oil, and the overall trend was first up and then down. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong market was 3100.00 yuan / ton on November 1 and 3093.33 yuan / ton on November 18, down 0.22% in the first half of the month. During this period, the largest earthquake amplitude was 4.33%, and the price was 20.82% lower than that of the same period last year.

As of November 18, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specification, mode of transportation, region, date, mainstream transaction price

Civil gas and automobile transportation in North China November 18: 3050-3200 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in East China on November 18, 3120-3260 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China November 18: 3350-3380 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Shandong on November 18, 3100-3120 yuan / ton

Civil gas transportation by truck in Northeast China November 18 2850-3050 yuan / ton

Civil gas transported by automobile along the river on November 18, 3330-3530 yuan / ton

According to the data of the business agency, this year’s LPG market is not as good as last year’s, and the overall price is lower this year. In November, the trend of civil gas in Shandong Province fluctuated. In the first week of November, the overall situation was mainly upward. With the introduction of CP price in November at the end of last year, both propylene and butane rose sharply, which brought obvious benefits to the market. In addition, during the period, the international crude oil industry was dominant, the downstream mentality was better, and the market entry was more positive. Most manufacturers delivered goods smoothly, and the inventory was generally free of pressure, and the mentality was firm, which pushed up the price slightly continuously.

Entering the second week, Shandong civil gas market as a whole fell first and then rose with crude oil. Although the international crude oil fell slightly on July 9, restraining the market, it continued to rise sharply on September 12, and domestic gas followed the upward trend. And with the weather cooling, the terminal demand is better, the news and demand side are both good, supporting a large increase in LPG. Factory shipment smooth, strong mentality. However, in terms of market supply, some manufacturers in the region have resumed production, and the market supply has increased, which has a certain constraint on the price rise.

At present, the third week is coming to an end. Due to the decline of crude oil on the 15th, Shandong civil gas market is lack of favorable support, following the decline. The current price has fallen back to the price before the rise in November. The decline of international crude oil has brought a certain blow to the market. With the end of early replenishment, downstream companies have withdrawn from the market to consume inventory. Manufacturers’ shipment is hindered, and the market transaction atmosphere has become weaker than that in the previous period. At present, there is no obvious pressure on manufacturers’ inventory, and the decline range is limited.

LPG futures market fluctuated and fell in November, which had limited positive effect on spot market

On November 18, 2012, the opening price of LPG futures was 3595, the highest price was 3636, the lowest price was 3530, the closing price was 3621, the previous settlement price was 3578, and the settlement price was 3583, with an increase of 43 or 1.20%, the trading volume was 63506, the position was 26146, and the daily increase was – 6533. (unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the civil gas market in Shandong Province is mainly weak, but the small rise of international crude oil has brought some support to the market. Although the manufacturers’ shipment has turned light, there is still no obvious pressure on the inventory. The current enthusiasm of downstream market entry is not high, and the decline space of LPG civil market is limited. It is expected that the civil gas horizontal consolidation will be the main trend in the short term.