1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market continued its downward trend this week, and the decline was larger than that of last week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3370 yuan / ton, down 2.32% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China and central China will cut the price of xylene by about 100 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is high. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 140000 tons, with an increase of 6000 tons compared with last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced, the price is weak, and the demand has not improved. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3380 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the upcoming US election, the progress of a new round of economic stimulus plan launched by the United States, fluctuations in the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East, the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continued deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new coronavirus vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the new crown epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has deteriorated sharply once again. Europe has strengthened its blockade and epidemic prevention, and the US stimulus plan negotiation has stalled, which has intensified the market’s worries about the decline in demand. Meanwhile, the active oil drilling platforms in the United States have increased for six weeks, and the crude oil production of OPEC member countries has also increased, which has also depressed the oil market atmosphere. The international oil price remained at the lowest level in five months on Friday. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $5.03/barrel to close at $36.205/barrel, down 12.2% from last week. In October, the international oil price fell for the second consecutive month, the decline was larger than that of the previous month, reaching about 10%, and hitting a new low of four and a half months.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week was about 4450 yuan / ton, and the latest external price was about 499 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 517 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline. In terms of PTA market, the market price has decreased significantly this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3285 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 435 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / T of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 543 USD / T FOB Korea and 570 USD / T CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will continue a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene in the domestic market will continue to decline next week.

Commodity index: on October 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 87.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 18.10% from 107.13 (May 8, 2019), and increased by 5.85% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data, the trend of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) was basically stable in September. Only in the two days at the end of the month, the price increased by about 400 yuan / ton, only about 2.82%; in October, the trend was still stable, and only a small increase of about 60 yuan / ton was found in the mainstream price on the 14th, while on the 15th, the price fell back immediately, and the overall increase was not very obvious.

Commodity market: in recent two months, the manufacturer’s production is normal, the quotation fluctuation is very small, the demand increment is not very big, and the transaction atmosphere is relatively peaceful. Domestic manufacturers of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) mainstream quotation: cationic, molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree) offer 14000-15000 yuan / ton, anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton, 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million solid particles 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particles The quotation of granule is 9600-10500 yuan / ton, the molecular weight is 18 million yuan / ton, the quotation of solid particle is 10400-11000 yuan / ton, the molecular weight is 18-20 million yuan / ton, the quotation of powder is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; for non-ionic, the quotation is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton. One of the price changes, only some manufacturers in the above-mentioned range of small adjustments.

Industrial chain: upstream: at the end of August, the mainstream quotation of acrylonitrile was 8450 yuan / ton, at the end of September, it was about 8750 yuan / ton. In October, the price of acrylonitrile was raised several times, with the range of about 550 yuan / ton, and it was reported to be about 9300 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At present, the main domestic manufacturers’ plant status: Fushun Petrochemical’s 92000 T / a acrylonitrile plant was shut down for maintenance on October 17, and it was postponed to the end of the month for restart and recovery. In October, Sinopec implemented 9000 yuan / ton of acrylonitrile settlement price in East China and 9050 yuan / ton in North China. The 260000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Formosa Plastics Chemical Co., Ltd., located in Mailiao, will maintain full load operation in November. In addition, it is planned to shut down for maintenance for about four weeks from January 8, 2021. Japan Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. implemented the price of acrylonitrile CP in November at 1300 USD / T. Downstream: in terms of the characteristics of the traditional sales season, the demand for sewage treatment downstream of water treatment should be increased this month. Up to now, the price of polyacrylamide has only increased by about 2% at the end of September. After that, the price has been basically stable, with few increases. This shows that the downstream demand is not as good as expected, but as far as the market is concerned, there are still a few manufacturers due to sales and sales The inventory situation and price have increased to a certain extent, and the relative range is not very large. The market expects that the heating season will come, and the environmental protection requirements will stimulate the demand for polyacrylamide, which will improve in the future.

Industry situation: since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. In September, it remained stable after a small shock, and the amplitude of the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. Although the prosperity of the industry increased in October, the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuels. Although the price of polyacrylamide raw materials also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not rise as much as that of polyaluminum chloride.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, from the perspective of the impact of the industrial chain, acrylonitrile rose by about 850 yuan / ton in two months. For the polyacrylamide manufacturers, there should be cost pressure. However, according to the water treatment manufacturers, because the market has been depressed this year, the manufacturers have a high stock, and the current raw material cost pressure has not been transmitted to the price of polyacrylamide, and the current sales inventory is still the main one 。 Secondly, due to the current market demand, the improvement of environment is not as big as expected, and the demand of water treatment industry needs to be improved. In the future, after the traditional golden sales period of “Jinjiu”, the arrival of heating season and environmental protection requirements will continue to improve the market of water treatment products, and the price of polyacrylamide may still rise. Beware of the impact of environmental requirements on the production of some manufacturers and the impact on the market.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of polyester filament is affected by the negative effects such as the sharp fall of cost and the fall of downstream purchasing sentiment. The overall heat of polyester filament is declining, and the market is running slightly. All products are in a downward trend this week. Among them, the decline of polyester FDY is more obvious, with a weekly decline of 3.02%, while that of polyester POY and polyester DTY is 1.45% and 0.35% respectively.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market from October 23 to 30, unit: yuan / ton

Products up and down from October 23, 2020 to October 30, 2020

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5798.33-5623.33 – 3.02% – 24.59%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5504.00-5424.00 – 1.45% – 23.32%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 7170.00-7145.00 – 0.35% – 19.28%

At present, the polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is weak, and mainstream factories begin to reduce prices and promote sales. The price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 5350-5650 yuan / ton, polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 5210-5850 yuan / ton, and polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 7000-7400 yuan / ton. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream textile enterprises has declined, and the raw material inventory is mainly digested, and the market transaction is light. In terms of production and marketing, the average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 60% – 80%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 120%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is now concentrated in 27-38 days, including POY inventory of 9-15 days, FDY inventory of 20-37 days, and DTY inventory of about 28-39 days.

The PTA Market of raw materials fell in a narrow range. As of October 30, the average market price was 3285 yuan / ton, 4.54% lower than the beginning of the week, and 33.28% lower than that at the beginning of the week. In terms of plant maintenance and restart coexist. Yishenghua’s 3.75 million ton PTA plant has reduced its load by 50% and planned maintenance. On October 31, Yangzi Petrochemical planned to overhaul 350000 tons. However, on October 28, Hanbang 2.2 million tons PTA plant was restarted, on October 30, Yizheng Chemical fiber 650000 tons was planned to restart, and Hengli petrochemical company planned to restart 2.2 million tons on November 1. It is expected that PTA starting load will rise from next week. In addition, another 1.1 million tons of new PTA capacity of Dushan energy phase II was postponed to the beginning of November, and crude oil fell. The production and sales of downstream polyester market were flat, which was negative for PTA market mentality.

On the downstream side, due to the cold winter expectation and the favorable expectation of domestic purchasers for “double 11″, there are more winter cold proof fabrics in the traditional market of China Light Textile City. The corresponding demand for winter fabrics increases, which drives the sales of corresponding raw materials in the upstream. The downstream weaving factories also increase their horsepower near the double 11 node and make full preparations day and night. At present, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is at present At present, the factory orders are mostly maintained around the early November. However, according to the news in Shengze area, the transaction growth rate of fabric market has slowed down. Although manufacturers have more orders in hand, the de stocking speed is slow. At present, the inventory in Shengze is about 40 days, and the start-up rate continues to maintain at a high level of 80-90%. At the same time, the recovery of foreign trade market is not as good as expected, and the market confidence has also dropped slightly. Textile enterprises also have certain concerns. Therefore, we adopt the business strategy of more market-oriented atmosphere and production according to order for raw material procurement.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that although the current polyester filament market price has fallen, the overall performance is still quite strong under the favorable support of terminal demand. In November, it is mainly the “double 11″ clothing and home textile e-commerce preparation, followed by the “double 12″ arrival, or will usher in a wave of replenishment, the order volume is still likely to rise. In addition, with the decrease of temperature and the demand for cold proof clothing fabrics, the market atmosphere for goods will be driven, and the price will rise at that time. However, the supply pressure of raw material market will remain, and the cost side support is insufficient, so the overall price increase will not be too large. From the middle and late ten days, with the advent of the off-season procurement, the price will also weaken, and the future market still needs to pay attention to the raw material market and foreign trade situation.

October is near the end, and the phenol market has been in range fluctuation for a month, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. The overall negotiation atmosphere is light and the trading is cold. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of phenol Market in China increased from 5487 yuan / ton on October 1 and October 28, 2020 to 5950 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and fell to 5587 yuan / ton near the end of the month, and the current offer in East China dropped by 5500 yuan / ton. Shandong and other North China region offer continued high, but few market transactions, South China slightly high, downstream still just need to follow up.

Trend chart of phenol average price in national market

Trend chart of phenol commodity index in East China (factory offer)

Near the end of the month, the market range fluctuates, and the focus continues to be narrow. Although the pressure on the supply side is small and the domestic supply is general, under the condition of poor downstream demand, the on-site trading volume is obviously insufficient, but on the other hand, the participation of intermediate traders is not high. The domestic phenol Market is still difficult to break through the bottleneck under the game of supply and demand.

From the downstream demand side, the bisphenol a market maintained a good situation in October. Last month, it rose first and then fell. This month, it mainly rose first and then stabilized. After the last ten days, the bisphenol a market has maintained a firm offer, especially for factories, which has been raised to 13000 yuan / ton. The market confidence has increased a lot, while the market has been above 12400 yuan / ton. However, from the perspective of trading atmosphere, the market performance in the latter ten days is good In the end, there were empty offers and few actual transactions. Another important downstream phenolic resin, has been in a stable operation state, and the start-up level fluctuates little.

From the point of view of business agencies, the phenol market was weak at the end of the month. Although there was little pressure from Hong Kong, the downstream follow-up was insufficient. Some traders were still not optimistic about the future market and actively shipped goods, and the offer was slightly lower according to the market. The business agency predicts that the phenol Market in Jinjiu yinshixia is not performing well. Throughout the year, it is also fluctuating in the middle of the standoff. At the end of the month, the phenol Market is difficult to cash in, and the overall negotiation space is 5450-5500 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 28, pet water bottle manufacturers quoted a price of 5033.33 yuan / ton, and the polyester bottle chip market was running in a weak position, with a slight downward trend. At present, the price range of mainstream manufacturers is around 5000-5100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation is around 4850-5000 yuan / ton. The overall polyester bottle chip market is weak and the purchasing atmosphere is cold.

The domestic PET bottle chip market center of gravity has shifted downward, the cost support is general, the downstream demand is poor, the transaction atmosphere is flat, the market negotiation focus is weak, the number of new orders is limited, mainly contract customers, just need to purchase, buy as you use, at present, the polyester bottle chip in East China is running at a low level, the current mainstream manufacturers’ price is around 5000-5100 yuan / ton, and the weak consolidation in South China, the mainstream market negotiation price In the range of 5000-5100 yuan / ton, the current shipment is smooth and the inventory is general.

The upstream PTA inventory is running at a high level, the demand has increased, the sorting presents a stable trend, the inventory consumption is slow, and the downstream just needs purchasing is the main.

On October 27, the rubber and plastic index was 698 points, up 5 points compared with yesterday, 34.15% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 32.20% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Pet analyst of business agency thinks: pet market is weak in the short term, narrow range finishing. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by pet business analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

1、 Price trend

This week, the selling price of sulphuric acid in Shandong is stable temporarily, with the quotation of 397.50 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s sulfuric acid market temporarily stable, October 23 sulfuric acid commodity index was 61.87.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the manufacturers’ inventory is small, and the downstream demand is strong. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 400 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu offered 270 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 350 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; kunshengda of Taiyuan City quoted 570 yuan / T at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market has been consolidation at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. However, the market of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and bromine in the lower reaches of the market has a positive impact on sulfuric acid. At the same time, some sulfuric acid factories are short of operation recently, the load is reduced, and the supply of sulfuric acid is in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

In the last ten days of October, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. The price of sulfur in the upstream has been high recently, and the downstream market is good. The purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream for sulfuric acid is normal, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small shock rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market gradually recovered. As of October 26, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation method remained at about 8333 yuan / ton, up 1.63% compared with the same period last week and 10.71% lower than that of the same period last month.

On October 25, the commodity index of maleic anhydride was 77.25, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 37.54% from the highest point of 123.67 (December 26, 2017), and increased by 50.94% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Affected by the low price of maleic anhydride in the early stage, the downstream market and traders made replenishment on the low price, and the overall market trading recovered, and the enterprises had a good intention to push up. In addition, the prices of peripheral products have been rising recently, which has promoted the price of maleic anhydride to rise strongly. At present, the solid anhydride in Shandong is about 7000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 7400 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 7100 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 7100 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 7300 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the pure benzene market is in the rising channel after the festival, driven by the downstream styrene rising and the external market rising. At present, it is about 3387 yuan / ton; the demand of downstream resin industry is stable, most manufacturers still just need to purchase, and the overall operating rate of the industry is about 40%.

3、 Future forecast

The maleic anhydride product analysts of the business agency believe that the current maleic anhydride market is strong and upward, the rising raw material prices lead to good cost support, and the downstream market has a good intention to replenish at a low price, which is expected to be strong in a short period of time.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate remained high this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, which was equal to 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 26.09%. On October 23, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 152.63, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 97.27% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started operation normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the field was tight. Some manufacturers reported that the situation of goods taking was improved, and the price trend of manufacturers remained high. Recently, the supply of on-site goods was tight, the transportation was normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remained high. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream procurement is on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and some manufacturers’ prices have increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid rose. The weekend price was 1583.33 yuan / ton, up 1.06% this week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1650 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1650 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 1800 yuan / ton. The quotation of Wenshui synthetic chemical industry is 1530 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site goods moving situation has improved. The price trend of nitric acid in the field has risen. The price rise of nitric acid is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market remains high.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia remained high this week, with an average price of 3200 yuan / ton. The operation of liquid ammonia plant was normal, the spot supply was slightly tight, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market remained high. From the basic point of view, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia market is mainly balanced, and some manufacturers’ devices are still in the maintenance period. It is estimated that the domestic liquid ammonia market will remain stable in the near future. Recently, the shipment of liquid ammonia from Shandong manufacturers has slowed down significantly, mainly for self use, which has stimulated the market price to maintain a high level, the upstream liquid ammonia market price rises, and the market price of ammonium nitrate goes up The potential remains high.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer are normal, and the price trend of raw material market is temporarily stable. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is tight, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain a high level in the future.

On October 20, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.70/barrel, up $0.64. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.16/barrel, up $0.54. International oil prices rose by more than 1% on Tuesday, mainly due to market expectations that a new US stimulus policy for the epidemic is close to being reached. However, the surge in the number of new cases of the global epidemic has slowed down the recovery expectations of most economies, and the increase in Libya’s oil production has limited the room for oil prices to rise.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1533 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1566 yuan / ton at the weekend, with the quotation rising by 2.17%.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 1550-1600 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1750 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last time; Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. quoted 1400 yuan / T, which was flat compared with last time; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 1550 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, with an increase of 170 yuan / ton compared with last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd The price of concentrated nitric acid is 1530 yuan / ton, and that of dilute nitric acid is 680 yuan / ton. The price of concentrated nitric acid is flat compared with that of last week. The trading volume of nitric acid market is good.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the upstream product liquid ammonia increased by 1.05% this week, while the downstream aniline increased by 2.06% this week, and the TDI quotation was temporarily stable this week.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid market trading can still and the liquid ammonia market preference, nitric acid analysts in the business community predict that the price may rise.