Recent trend of urea price

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2386.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2505.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 4.96%, and a year-on-year increase of 52.13%. On the whole, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index of 126.98 on June 4, showing an upward trend over the weekend.

The upstream support is good, the downstream demand increases, and the supply side is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. The urea price of Yangmei plain this weekend is 2460 yuan / ton, which is 70 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2550 yuan / ton this weekend, which was 150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the overall price of upstream urea products increased significantly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas increased slightly, from 3593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3616.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.65%, 46.42% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal rose sharply, from 890.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 936.25 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 5.20%, 69.53% year on year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply, from 4173.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4350.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.23%, 41.85% over the same period last year. The quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea fell slightly this week, from 9333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.36%.

From the perspective of demand, the agricultural demand of different regions has been followed up; The downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet factories started relatively high, the new orders of enterprises followed up well, melamine production resumed one after another, and the demand further increased. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the unit maintenance of urea enterprises remains the same, the average operating rate is about 75%, the daily output is 155000 tons, the supply side is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. On the whole, this week’s urea cost support is good, downstream demand increases, urea supply is tight, and supply exceeds demand.

The price is still strong in the future

In the first ten days of June, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is rising and the industrial demand is also rising slightly, but the supply of urea is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will not meet the demand in the short term, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.

Just entering June, the domestic propane Market as a whole rose, Shandong and central China rose steadily, and the price of South China rebounded due to the low price in the early stage. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of propane in Shandong was 4305.75 yuan / ton on June 1 and 4323.25 yuan / ton on June 3, with an increase of 0.41% during the period and 42.33% compared with the same period last year.

Compared with the same period in 2020, propane price is on the high side this year. Just entering June, the overall price of propane in the domestic market has been increased under the favorable factors, but the negative factors still exist, which also brings some restraint to the market and limits the increase. The first reason for this upward trend is the international crude oil market, which was boosted by the international crude oil market at the beginning of this month, bringing good support to the propane Market. The second is the import volume. In June, the CP price was introduced, and there was a significant rise in the price of propane. The high import cost supported the upstream mentality, and the market transaction atmosphere was mild. Therefore, the propane market was stable and upward, South China rebounded, and Shandong and central China slightly promoted. However, there are still negative factors in the current market. Affected by seasonal factors, the market is in the traditional off-season demand, and the terminal demand is weak, which brings restraint to the rise of the market.

In the international crude oil market, on June 2, the international oil price rose significantly, with WTI up more than 1.6%. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was $68.83/barrel, up $1.11 or 1.64%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 71.35 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.10 U.S. dollars or 1.57%. This is mainly due to the decision of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) to adhere to the gradual resumption of supply plan. In addition, the progress of us Iran nuclear negotiations is slow, and the market supply pressure is expected to ease significantly.

Saudi Aramco CP announced in June that the level of propane and butane was increased. Propane was 530 US dollars / ton, up 35 US dollars / ton from last month; Butane is 525 US dollars / ton, up 50 US dollars / ton from last month.

At present, with the support of high international crude oil and gas intake, the domestic propane market is generally good. The upstream inventory in some regions is controllable, and the price is slightly pushed up. Most other regions have stable prices, and the market transaction atmosphere is mild. However, due to seasonal factors, the terminal demand is weak, which brings obvious constraints to the market. It is expected that the price of propane market will be strong in the short term, and it is unlikely to rise sharply in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market stopped falling and rising this week, with the price of 7781 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8034 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 3.26%; June 1 is the weekly low price, 7714 yuan / ton, the weekly price is 4.15%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business news agency, Shandong propylene price stopped falling and rising this week. In early June, the price continued to decline. After a sharp rise of 150-250 yuan / ton on the 3rd, it continued to rise slightly on the 4th, with a range of 50 yuan / ton. Now the market turnover has risen to 7850-8250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8050 yuan / ton. On June 3, propylene prices in the United States and Asia were stable, with no significant impact on the propylene market. Propylene market inventory is not much, part of the unit maintenance has started, began to quote.

Recently, the international crude oil market events continue, and the price rise rate reached 11%, which played a certain cost support for the propylene price rise this week.

PP price is stable this week, futures market is general, less impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid prices fell by 5.85 this week, which had a negative impact on propylene.

This week, the market of propylene oxide showed a ladder like decline, with a weekly decline of 6.07%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 5.76%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic n-butanol price showed a double peak trend, with no weekly rise or fall, and the weekly amplitude was 0.45%, which had limited impact on the propylene market.

This week, the price of isooctanol rose by 3.33%, and the impact on propylene was limited.

Isopropanol prices continued to fall sharply this week, with a weekly drop of 12.24%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

This week, the phenol Market Price in East China went down, with a weekly decline of 4.27%, which had a small inhibitory effect on propylene.

This week, the quotation of acetone manufacturers in East China market continued to decline, with a weekly decline of 17.09%, which also had a greater effect on propylene suppression.

This week, the market price of acrylonitrile continued to rise, with a weekly increase of 3.8%, which had little impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: in general, the domestic inventory is still small, some maintenance devices are back to work, enterprises begin to quote, crude oil market is up, some downstream is down obviously, long short game, propylene is expected to rise or shock.

The standing meeting of the State Council (hereinafter referred to as the “National Convention”) held on May 26 deployed to further support the rescue and development of small and micro enterprises and individual business households. The meeting pointed out that various measures should be taken to help small and micro enterprises and individual businesses cope with the impact of upstream raw material price rise. We will support large enterprises to build a supply-demand docking platform for the industrial chain of key industries, guide the upstream and downstream of the supply chain to stabilize the supply of raw materials and coordinate production and marketing, and ensure supply and price stability. We will crack down on hoarding and driving up prices.

It is worth noting that this is the third time in 14 days that the standing meeting of the State Council has focused on the rise of prices such as commodities and raw materials. With the increase of policy, the commodity market continues to cool down. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the commodity price index BPI as of May 30 is 1047, down 2.06% from 1069 (2021-05-13), the highest point in the period, and 58.64% higher than the lowest point 660 on February 3, 2016（ Note: the cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present)

Commodity prices rose and fell (3%) in week 21, 2021 (5.24-5.28)

In the 21st week of 2021 (5.24-5.28), 96 commodities in the list of commodity prices rose and fell in the ring ratio, accounting for 43.64% of the total. The commodities that are concentrated in chemical industry (37 kinds) and steel (18 kinds in total), and the commodities with a decline of more than 5% mainly focus on the chemical industry; The top three commodities fell by melamine (-31.41%), bisphenol A (-17.81%), acetone (-11.45%). The average weekly rise and fall was -0.69 per cent.

The business community believes that commodity prices have risen too fast this year, which has a negative impact on economic expectations, and inflation has increasingly affected people’s production and life. Many measures have been taken by the state to control short-term speculation in a timely and effective manner, which helps to guide the rational expectations of the market, squeeze speculative bubbles away, and maintain the smooth operation of commodity prices. In this context, short-term commodities will enter the rational callback stage, and it will take a while.

Last week (5.25-28), the domestic liquid ammonia market continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, the liquid ammonia market rose by 3.36% on a weekly basis. Last week, liquid ammonia manufacturers generally raised their prices, and they are adjusting their prices almost every day. Hebei and Shandong large factories have increased their prices by more than 200 yuan. With more maintenance devices, the market supply is tight, and the prices continue to rise. On Monday, some manufacturers in the north are still adjusting their prices, and the prices are still in the upward channel.

On the 31st, the price of liquid ammonia in Hebei continued to rise, and the current supply of goods in the region was in short supply. On the 31st, the quotation of large factories rose slightly, with an increase of 50-70 yuan / ton. The inventory pressure of manufacturers was acceptable, and the mainstream price in the region was 3850-4050 yuan / ton. At present, the liquid ammonia discharged by the manufacturer is moderate, and the overall inventory pressure in the region is not big. It is expected that the price will still have upward space in the near future.

At the beginning of the week, the overall atmosphere of the domestic liquid ammonia market was good. The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong continued to rise, and the inventory pressure in the region was acceptable. The price in Shandong increased at the end of last week. After rising for five consecutive days last week, the price rose again on Monday, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton. The inventory pressure of manufacturers was general, and the mainstream price in the region was 4000-4150 yuan / ton. At present, there is less liquid ammonia discharged by the manufacturers in this area, and the overhauling of some devices aggravates the atmosphere of shortage in the market. The manufacturers frequently adjust the price to stimulate the market to follow up. It is expected that the price upward space in the near future is limited.

In the future, the domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers still have upward movement, but the upward trend is slightly slowing down. Some manufacturers began to stabilize their quotations last weekend, and the market upsurge has slightly stabilized. The recent upward space may not be large. However, due to the continuous strength of urea and the export boosted by printing standards, the price of liquid ammonia will not fall in the near future, and is expected to maintain a high range.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price trend of cryolite in Henan continued to be stable this week. The average price of cryolite in Henan was 6425 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was flat compared with that at the end of last week, with a month on month increase of 0.39%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic market of cryolite is temporarily stable, the regional manufacturers’ devices are running normally, and the external quotation is stable. As of the 28th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 6000-6500 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 6300-6800 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with last week. According to the plant operation of manufacturers in Henan Province, the 30000 T / a plant of Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. started normally, and the whole plant load of Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd; The annual capacity of cryolite plant of Shandong Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. is 40000 tons. The plant is in normal operation, and there is no shutdown plan for the time being. Cryolite enterprises started smoothly, with sufficient inventory, general downstream demand and fair transaction. The actual price was mainly discussed through negotiation.

In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, the price trend fluctuated and went up this week, with an increase of 2.54%. The domestic aluminum social inventory was relatively low, the downstream demand side consumption was strong, and the aluminum social inventory continued to decline. With China’s aluminum industry speeding up the implementation of the carbon peak target, the terminal demand was expected to be better, the aluminum spot market went down obviously, and the aluminum market continued to go up in the later period.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market was weak and stable this week, and the average domestic production price remained at 2622.22 yuan / ton. At present, the mine and flotation unit in the fluorite yard started to work normally, and the supply of goods in the yard increased. However, the downstream delivery situation was general, and the demand for fluorite was lack of effective support.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the domestic manufacturers of cryolite have stable equipment start-up and sufficient market supply. The downstream aluminum industry has strong consumption, but the support for cryolite industry is not strong. Most of the enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude and operate in a light and stable manner. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to be stable in the later period, focusing on the downstream demand.

Price trend

Nylon price chart

According to the statistics of business news agency, as of May 28, the price of nylon filament DTY in Jiangsu was 19860 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton from the beginning of May; The price of nylon POY was 17400 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton from the beginning of May; The price of nylon FDY was 20000 yuan / ton, up 550 yuan / ton from the beginning of May. From the price trend point of view, the whole may, nylon price high shock first rose and then fell.

Upstream cost impact

Cyclohexanone price chart

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of upstream cyclohexanone was at a high level in May as a whole. It rose from the first ten days of May to the last ten days of May and fell to a high level in the middle of May. On May 14, the average market price of cyclohexanone was 11220 yuan / ton, up 13.10% month on month and 93.45% year on year. As of May 28, the average market price of cyclohexanone was 10640 yuan / ton, 580 yuan / ton lower than that in mid May. The upstream and downstream support was weak, the wait-and-see mood was high, the pressure of cyclohexanone was high, and the transaction center was frustrated. Business community cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will be weak in the short term.

PA6 price chart

Raw material PA6: in early May, the domestic PA6 market was active, and the spot price rose significantly. As of May 18, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 15666.67 yuan / ton, up 5.62% from the average price at the beginning of the month and 37.83% from the same period last year. On May 25, the domestic PA6 market fell, and the spot price dropped significantly. As of May 25, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 15166.67 yuan / ton, with a one-day drop of 2.15%, up 31.12% over the same period of last year. On May 25, the upstream caprolactam market of PA6 stagnated and turned to decline, and the recent cost side support guidance market of PA6 suffered a drastic reduction. Generally speaking, the current PA6 market is short, and the spot price is expected to continue to fall.

Market demand factors

According to a number of manufacturers, downstream demand for nylon is not high, most downstream enterprises maintain normal just need to take goods, mainly small orders, weak market transactions, basically in a situation of no market price, sufficient supply of goods on the floor, increased inventory, some manufacturers start to adjust, upstream and downstream parties have a cautious attitude towards the future market.

3、 Future forecast:

The terminal demand has not improved significantly, most downstream enterprises keep normal, just need to take goods, order support is limited; The upstream raw material cost is high, once the raw material cost support collapses, nylon filament is not immune. It is expected that the domestic nylon price will be high and weak, and the price will drop slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the price chart of the business agency, as of Wednesday, May 26, 2021, the domestic reference price of acrylonitrile was 14340.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous working day price, which was 0.99% higher than that of last Wednesday, and 2.89% lower than that on April 26.

2、 Market analysis

Under the influence of many factors such as more bearish sentiment, cautious wait and see attitude of middlemen and downstream users before May 1st holiday, the reference price of the return acrylonitrile market after the festival continued to decline, falling to 13800 yuan / ton on May 11, the lowest price in the last two months. Then, the price rebounded and rose at the end of the stage, and the price rose to 14150 yuan / ton as of May 24, The price shows a stage V-type trend; During the period, most manufacturers and businesses adjusted the price in a small range, and the factory price of Jiangsu srbang fell about 300 yuan / ton on May 24, and Qilu Petrochemical factory price increased by about 200 yuan / ton. The current market mainstream quotation is about 14100-14150 yuan / ton. There is no significant change in market demand and supply, with stable overall performance and little fluctuation in market transactions.

upper reaches:

According to the price chart of the business agency, the price of propylene continued to stabilize in the first two days of May 1, up 50 yuan / ton from the 3rd to 7th, and the price remained stable since the 9th, with the mainstream price of about 8350 yuan / ton. In the past ten days, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has steadily declined and then recovered. On May 16, it was the high price of 10 days, 8371 yuan / ton, 8119 yuan / ton on May 25, 3.01% on the 10th day, and the low price of 10 days from May 21 to 23, 8035 yuan / ton, with a 10-day amplitude of 4.02%. At present, there is not much stock in propylene market, and some of the equipment maintenance is still not finished; The international crude oil market events have been constantly, and the price fluctuates. The crude oil price rose sharply on May 24, which has a more obvious positive effect on the propylene market.

Downstream:

This week, the domestic NBR fell slightly, and the factory price of Lanhua nitrile was stable. According to the monitoring of the business society, as of May 21, the factory output of Lanzhou Petrochemical NBR n41e was 17700 yuan / ton; At present, 3305e reported 18800 yuan / ton; At present, 3308e reported 19700 yuan / ton. India made a final anti-dumping decision on NBR in China this month, and the export market of NBR was slightly blocked, domestic demand still needs to be stable, and some merchants offered a small adjustment of the shipping talks. The relative pressure on supply side is not large, and the price in the early stage has fallen sharply, and it is expected that the NBR market will be stable in the later period.

In May, polyacrylamide was affected by the price change of raw materials. On the first day, the domestic (molecular weight 12 million, ionic degree 10-30) polyacrylamide cation price was 15433.33 yuan / ton, and on 25, it was reduced to 14800 yuan / T. this month, it has a trend of oscillation and downward trend, with a range of about 4.1%.

3、 Post market forecast:

Analysts of business society believe that the supply and demand side of acrylonitrile is still acceptable. With the attention of the executive meeting of the State Council on the issue of the rise of prices of commodities and raw materials and the increase of policy strength, the commodity prices will generally fall in the near future, while the prices of acrylonitrile will rise after falling. It is expected that the market will be slightly shaken in the later period, and the rising trend is not large, More attention is paid to the market information guidance for specific trends

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market fell on May 25, and the spot price dropped significantly. As of May 25, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 15166.67 yuan / ton, with a one-day drop of 2.15%, up 31.12% over the same period of last year.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

In terms of upstream caprolactam, the domestic market is relatively strong in the near future. The spot price fell today after finishing sideways on the 24th. The price of caprolactam liquid of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was reduced to 13200 yuan / T, with a capacity of 300000 tons and normal production of the plant. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid was reduced to 14400 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit was started normally and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 14400 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. In terms of raw material pure benzene, crude oil and external market fell in a wide range last week, while external news was bad for pure benzene, and the price fell continuously. The cost side support from raw material pure benzene gradually weakened, and caprolactam followed the upstream.

Raw material caprolactam market from up to down, PA6 cost side support reversed. Last month, PA6 spot market has continued to fall for more than a month, after the festival market rebound with caprolactam. Today, the upstream support is loose, and the main positive factors will be weakened in the short term. In addition, the recent downstream factory purchase operation is cautious, and the follow-up is slow. Trading on the floor was weak, and the actual trading momentum was poor. The profit situation of polymerization plant continued to be in the pattern of loss, the decline of engineering materials and chips was similar, and the inventory of the enterprise was on the rise.

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3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: on May 25, the upstream caprolactam market of PA6 stagnated and turned to decline, and the recent cost side support guidance market of PA6 suffered a drastic decline, with a large one-day decline. There is no large-scale demand in downstream factories, and the end-user mentality is not strong, so the operation is mainly cautious. Overall, the current PA6 market is short, and the spot price is expected to continue to fall.

Trade name: glass

Latest price May 25: 34.56 yuan / m2

Analysis points: on May 25, the glass spot market performed generally, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market slowed down. In North China Shahe, the number of manufacturers leaving the warehouse has weakened, the shipping price of traders is more flexible, and the focus of transaction has moved down. The overall trend of glass spot market in East China is general, with low inventory and strong price. The production and sales in Central China are fairly good, and the spot price of glass has slightly increased. The supply of goods in South China is relatively tight, the market confidence is good, and the spot price of glass continues to rise. Generally speaking, the low inventory of production enterprises has a certain supporting effect on the spot price. It is expected that the price of glass will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

Forecast: Glass spot market price consolidation in the short term.