1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the market price in Shandong is 647.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 5.86% and a price increase of 36.32% over the same period last year. On August 8, the caustic soda commodity index was 93.17, the same as yesterday, down 54.96% from the highest point 206.87 in the cycle (November 14, 2017), and up 43.10% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of caustic soda has been stable for the time being this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 620-720 yuan / ton. Downstream demand is mainly based on purchase on demand. Now caustic soda manufacturers adjust their prices according to their own conditions. It is comprehensively estimated that caustic soda will mainly operate temporarily and stably in the future. The price of caustic soda in Hebei fluctuates slightly. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 650-780 yuan / ton. It is expected that the subsequent consolidation and operation of caustic soda will be the main.

Downstream: at present, alumina enterprises mainly purchase caustic soda on demand, and the quotation of caustic soda manufacturers is stable. In addition, the downstream has a mentality of resistance to high price caustic soda, and the two sides launch a price game.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 31st week of 2021 (8.2-8.6), there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodities falling and 4 kinds of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities falling were PVC (- 0.14%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.03%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has maintained stable operation, while the downstream alumina is mainly purchased on demand. It is expected that the follow-up consolidation and operation of caustic soda will mainly depend on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to rise this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2350.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 3.68% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite this week is good. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 2300-2400 yuan / ton. Supported by the continuous rise in raw material costs, after August, Georgia manufacturers successively increased the ex factory price of sodium pyrosulfite, driving the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite to continue to rise. With the support of downstream rigid demand, the enterprise’s production is stable, focusing on completing the orders of old customers（ The above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact each manufacturer for details).

This week, the overall high price of domestic soda ash kept steady, the price of sulfur rose by 1.21%, the price of upstream raw materials continued to rise, and the continuous high cost of raw materials will further support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, there is still some room for rise in the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price in the short term.

In July, the propane market fluctuated frequently, showing a volatile upward trend as a whole, and there were many positive factors in July. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane Market in Shandong was 4543.25 yuan / ton on July 1 and 4748.25 yuan / ton on July 31. The overall increase in July was 4.51%, an increase of 41.74% compared with the same period last year.

As of July 30, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications July 30th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4600-4900 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4650-4750 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4600-4800 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4650-4750 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4600-4950 yuan / ton

In July, Shandong propane market fluctuated frequently, but the overall focus shifted upward. At the beginning of July, the propane market enjoyed a good start, and the price continued to rise to a high level. After the introduction of CP in July, both propane and butane rose sharply, and the high import cost significantly boosted the domestic market. The sharp rise of the international crude oil market has also brought positive support to the market. Both the north and South markets have increased to varying degrees. However, in the later stage, with the decline of international crude oil, there were insufficient favorable factors in the market, and the price fell. However, the high port price brought obvious support to the market. On the 18th, Shandong propane market rose again in the month until the end of the month. In July, the overall shipment situation of the market was ok, but there was a certain deviation in the trend of North and South in the second half of the month.

Saudi Aramco announced in August that both propylene and butane rose. Propane was 660 USD / T, up 40 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 655 USD / T, up 35 USD / T compared with the previous month.

Due to the influence of seasonal factors, the off-season has not passed, and the terminal demand is still weak, which has brought some restraint to the rising market. However, with the introduction of CP in August, propylene butane continued to rise, the high import cost brought obvious support to the domestic market, and the international crude oil operated at a high level. It is expected that the propane market may still rise in August.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose in July. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3550 yuan / ton, up 2.01% from the price of 3480 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 51.71% year-on-year.

In July, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend rose, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably, the supply of goods in the field was normal recently, the delivery of goods in the field was general, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the coal price in the upstream of the terminal was high, and the price of raw liquid ammonia continued to rise, so the price trend of ammonium nitrate rose. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. Recently, the trend of nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is stable. There are still many shutdown in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the price of ammonium nitrate market rises due to the cost support. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 3500-3600 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2800-3200 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 4400-4500 yuan / ton.

In July, the price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose sharply. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2600 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.64% over the price of 2350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2550 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 2700 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation of domestic nitric acid plants is stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the field is general. In July, the price trend of nitric acid market rose sharply, and the price of raw nitric acid rose, which formed a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate continued to rise.

The domestic market price of liquid ammonia in the upstream rose in July. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 4883.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.15% over the price of 4433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of business society, the current market price range in Shandong is 4500-4800 yuan / ton, and some quotations have broken through the 4800 mark, reaching the highest level in history. The soaring price of liquid ammonia is the result of the dual effects of high cost and tight supply and demand. As domestic bulk commodities usher in a new round of rising cycle, especially the upstream coal of liquid ammonia, the rise is strong, and the cost support is obvious. In addition, the supply of liquid ammonia continues to be tight. At present, it is still affected by the low operating rate of domestic devices and too many maintenance devices, resulting in an obvious decline in supply, resulting in insufficient supply in the market, superimposed with dealer speculation and other factors, and the price of liquid ammonia rises. The continuous rise in the price of upstream liquid ammonia forms a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate rises.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the market price of raw materials continues to rise, which plays a certain supporting role in the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analyst of business society believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate will remain high in the later stage.

On July 29, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 89.96, the same as yesterday, down 11.81% from the highest point of 102.01 in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 199.97% from the lowest point of 29.99 on April 7, 2020（ Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2013 to now).

Price rise and fall of main domestic hydrogenated benzene market from July 26 to July 30 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region. Price on July 26. Price on July 30. Weekly rise and fall

East China, 8250., 8075. – 175

Shandong Province, 7950., 7925. – 25

This week (July 26 to July 30), the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong was temporarily stable, at 7950 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7925 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 25 yuan / ton. The overall stable and weak operation was dominated.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene in July 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date., adjusted price., adjusted amount

July 2, 8750., + 300

July 12, 8600. – 150

July 19, 8450. – 150

July 21, 8150. – 300

On July 21, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan / ton. At present, it is 8150 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 8100 yuan / ton.

The trend of crude oil is mainly volatile, the support of pure benzene and downstream is insufficient, the overall market mentality is low, the price of pure benzene drops slightly, and the overall market is mainly on the sidelines. With the introduction of the tender price of crude benzene this week, the price of crude benzene in Shandong is 6250 ~ 6255 yuan / ton, an increase of 125 yuan / ton compared with the tender price last week. At present, the shipment pressure of hydrobenzene enterprises has increased, and some enterprises have begun to have maintenance plans.

In the future, the business community believes that the fundamentals are limited and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the hydrogenated benzene market will operate stably and weakly in the short term.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on July 30 was 5329.67 yuan / kg, which was 5279.33 yuan / kg higher than the average price of spot market on July 29; Increased by 0.95%; Compared with the early average price of 5304.33 yuan / kg in the spot market in early July (July 1), an increase of 0.48%; Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 3.97%.

On July 30, the early spot price of gold was 380.20 yuan / g, up 0.37% from the early spot price on July 29; Compared with the early average price of 366.77 yuan / g in the spot market in early July (7.1), an increase of 3.66%; Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 3.18%.

List of precious metal supply and demand data in 2021

According to the data of the World Gold Council, in the second quarter of 2021, the global gold consumption and investment demand increased compared with the first quarter.

Gold demand: in the second quarter of 2021, the total global demand for gold (excluding OTC transactions) reached 955.1 tons, an increase of 9% over the previous quarter, and a year-on-year decrease of only 1% compared with the same period in 2020 (960.5 tons).

In the second quarter, the demand for gold bars and gold coins increased year-on-year for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 243.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 56%, the best quarterly performance since 2013.

The total global consumption of gold jewelry was 390.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 60%. The global demand for science and technology funds was 80.0 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%; The global gold ETF position increased by 40.7 tons. In the second quarter, central banks continued to maintain a steady pace of gold purchase, and the global official gold reserve increased by 199.9 tons, of which the central banks of Thailand, Hungary and Brazil bought the most.

Gold supply: the impact of the epidemic gradually subsided, and the total global gold supply reached 1171.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%.

According to the data of the second quarter, the global gold consumption and investment demand showed a positive trend, but overall, the total global gold demand (excluding OTC transactions) in the first half of 2021 was 1833.1 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%; The global gold ETF had a net outflow in the first half of the year for the first time since 2014, with an outflow of 129.3 tons.

Investment demand weakened, but physical demand increased year-on-year. In the first half of 2021, the global demand for gold bars and gold coins was 594.5 tons, the best performance since 2013, with a year-on-year increase of 45%; The global demand for gold jewelry reached 873.7 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 57%, but decreased by 17% compared with the average level in 2015-2019; Global central banks bought 333.2 tons of gold, up 63% year-on-year, 39% higher than the average level in the first half of the past five years; The global demand for science and technology gold was 161.0t, slightly higher than the 160.6t demand for science and technology gold in the first half of 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 14%.

The supply side recovered year-on-year. In the first half of 2021, the total global gold supply reached 2307.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%.

Fundamentals superimposed on policy, precious metals are good in the short term

The fundamentals of supply and demand show that in 2021, the demand for gold will gradually pick up, the supply will increase simultaneously, and there are signs of recovery after the reduction of investment demand. On the one hand, the gold price is falling at a high level, showing a certain speculative value and the market risk preference is rising; On the other hand, affected by inflation expectations, the demand for savings preservation of physical gold such as gold bars and gold coins increased.

In terms of policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep its key interest rate near zero at the policy meeting ended on Wednesday, which is good for precious metals to a certain extent; The US GDP in the second quarter was much lower than expected, and the US dollar continued to sell off on Friday. The dollar fell below 92. In the short term, precious metals have been strongly supported in the near future.

Future forecast

Ye Jianjun, an analyst at business society, expects that the price of precious metals will still fluctuate in the range in the near future. On the one hand, although the US dollar index has weakened recently, in the long run, it has rebounded from the low level at the end of the second quarter, with downward resistance support and strong overall uncertainty; On the other hand, inflation expectation vs interest rate increase operation expectation, the Fed’s expectation of monetary policy shift still exists, and the policy trend will continue to drag down the trend of precious metals.

The K-line chart of business society shows that since 2021 / 7 / 4, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average to start the upward trend, but the current two moving averages have the trend of going opposite. It is estimated on July 25, 2021 that the probability of operation situation change (i.e. the 7-day moving average crosses the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 49.56%.

Technical indicators also show that the current operation situation is uncertain, mainly shock operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda is running well. At present, the average market price in Shandong is 647.5 yuan / ton, which is 30.15% higher than that in the same period last year. On July 28, the caustic soda commodity index was 93.17, up 0.36 points from yesterday, down 54.96% from the highest point 206.87 in the cycle (November 14, 2017), and up 43.10% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda prices have risen since July. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 640-700 yuan / ton. Due to the tightening of maintenance supply of caustic soda manufacturers, the downstream demand is slightly better than before. Now caustic soda manufacturers adjust their prices according to their own conditions. It is comprehensively estimated that the subsequent upward market operation of caustic soda is mainly expected. The price of caustic soda in Hebei is rising. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 700-800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the subsequent good operation of caustic soda will be dominated. Data show that the operating rate of chlor alkali plant is about 84%,

Downstream: due to the inventory demand of downstream alumina for caustic soda, alumina enterprises in Shandong have raised the purchase price of local caustic soda four times. Caustic soda manufacturers are mainly active in shipping, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable. There is a good demand for caustic soda. At this stage, the price of caustic soda is running better.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 29th week of 2021 (7.19-7.23), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodity falling and 1 kind of commodity rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising were: caustic soda (7.05%), light soda (2.89%), calcium carbide (0.98%); The main commodities falling were PVC (- 0.14%). Both rose or fell by 2.16% this week.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has risen, the maintenance inventory of caustic soda manufacturers has decreased recently, and the downstream alumina is still supported by demand. In addition, the export of caustic soda is well oriented. According to the data, the export of liquid soda in June was 136400 tons, a month on month increase of 131.97% and a year-on-year increase of 456.73%. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate well, depending on the downstream market demand.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (July 28): 13733 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber price was 13733 yuan / ton on the 28th, down 0.24% from the previous day. Recently, the price of natural rubber fluctuated in a narrow range below 13000 yuan / ton, which had a negative impact on styrene butadiene rubber. The price of raw butadiene stabilized, the price of styrene fluctuated at a low level, and the ex factory price of petrochemical manufacturers was reduced by about 300 yuan / ton on the 27th and 28th. Some traders’ offers followed the downward trend, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was light.

Future forecast: the low price of natural rubber fluctuates in a narrow range, and the rise of raw material price gradually stops. On the whole, the impact on styrene butadiene is mainly empty, and it is expected that styrene butadiene rubber will be weak in the short term.

Recent price trend of potassium chloride

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride in Qinghai has risen sharply recently. The quotation increased from 2525.00 yuan / ton on May 1 to 3210.00 yuan / ton on July 27, an increase of 27.13%. In July, the quotation of potassium chloride of Salt Lake shares was raised twice, with a total increase of 820 yuan / ton, or 33.47%. On July 1, the quotation was 2770 yuan / ton, an increase of 320 yuan / ton; On July 19, the price was adjusted again to 3270 yuan / ton, an increase of 500 yuan. Qinghai Salt Lake raised the quotation of potassium chloride, and local distribution enterprises raised the quotation one after another. The transaction price in domestic mainstream areas was 3800-4000 yuan, and the actual transaction was less. Most businesses have stopped quoting, waiting for the development of the market, and are reluctant to sell. A small amount of potassium chloride arrived at the import port, and the price continued to rise. The quotation of 62% Russian White potassium port was about 4250-4350 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. The quotation of 62% white potassium in border trade is 4000 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. There are few new orders signed in border trade areas, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

Strong international demand for potash fertilizer

Recently, the FOB price of potassium chloride in Vancouver is about 251-578 US dollars / ton, up 2-3 US dollars / ton compared with the previous period. The CIF price of potassium chloride in Southeast Asia is temporarily stable, about 340-370 US dollars / ton. In the past six months, the price of potassium chloride in Brazil and the United States has increased by more than 300 US dollars / ton, of which the price of large granular potassium chloride in Brazil has increased by more than 400 US dollars / ton to 640-670 US dollars / ton. In addition, EU sanctions against Belarus will not have a significant impact on its exports in the short term, but it may exacerbate the shortage of international potash supply.

There is a tight supply of domestic marketable goods

Due to the recent general rise in the prices of agricultural products and the general rise in farmers’ planting enthusiasm, the demand for potassium fertilizer has increased greatly. However, the available spot in the domestic potassium chloride market is in short supply, and the domestic inventory is relatively low. Although domestic potassium chloride plants have resumed production, some small plants are still under maintenance. It is roughly estimated that the inventory of potassium chloride in the port is about 2-2.5 million tons, but the saleable volume is less than 1 million tons. At the same time, recent rainstorms occurred frequently in Qinghai, and the commencement and shipment of potassium chloride decreased slightly.

Import and export

Import: from January to June, China imported 4.53 million tons of potassium chloride, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%; Among them, the import of potassium chloride in June was 488600 tons, down 11% from 549700 tons in May, basically the same as that in the same period last year. Export: from January to June, China exported 168500 tons of potassium chloride, an increase of 53.2% over the same period last year. In June, China exported 37800 tons of potassium chloride, an increase of 126.3% over the same period last year.

Short supply, bullish outlook

The overall trend of potassium chloride Market in early August or high consolidation. There is a tight supply of marketable potash fertilizer in China. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. At the same time, the delivery of international potash fertilizer suppliers is delayed and the arrival at the port is limited. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic potassium chloride price may continue to consolidate at a high level in the short term, focusing on the international market and arrival in Hong Kong.

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, as of July 26, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 95000 yuan / ton, up 4.78% compared with the price of July 20, 5.95% higher than that on June 26, and 18.26% year-on-year in three months.

In the early July, the market of lithium hydroxide rose steadily, with an overall increase of 1.12%. In late July, the lithium hydroxide market rose again. In recent years, some manufacturers have been overhauling their equipment, the spot supply in the market is reduced, the downstream demand is increasing, and the market supply and demand continue to be tight, and the market is firm and upward.

Data of lithium hydroxide output: in June 2021, the output of lithium hydroxide, the main manufacturer in China, was 17500 tons, an increase of 13.41% on a month basis.

According to the data of business society, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 87000 yuan / ton by July 26, up 0.46% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. On July 26, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90800 yuan / ton, up 0.44% compared with the price at the beginning of the month.

According to the analysts of lithium hydroxide of business society, in a comprehensive view, the current market supply and demand are tight and balanced, and the cost side is supported. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be mainly strong operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.