1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fell continuously this week. On August 15, the price of toluene was 5772.2 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 22), the price was 5682 yuan / ton, down 15.6% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 68.12%.

2、 Analysis and review

The demand is weak, and the atmosphere in the venue continues to be light. Crude oil fell continuously during the week, dragging down the bulk commodity market. As the downstream toluene, the market mentality was bearish and the price fell.

In terms of external market, as of August 20, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $739 / T, down US $19 / T or 2.51% month on month (MOM) on August 13.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta mutant virus has led to a bearish market on the demand recovery process. In addition, official data show that the oil refining output and economic activity of major emerging market countries have slowed down, the market pessimism has increased, and the international oil price has continued to decline this week. On August 13, Brent fell $5.41 / barrel, or 7.66%; WTI fell $6.12/barrel, or 8.94%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rebounded this week. The price of domestic goods was 15075 yuan / ton, up 5.05% from last week and 7.68% from the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is sorted upward, the offer of the cargo holder is on the high side, and the on-site information suppliers are dominant; Downstream follow-up is average, mainly wait-and-see.

In the PX market, the domestic PX trend was stable this week, with the price of 7300 yuan / ton, up 58.7% over the same period last year. Recently, the closing price of international crude oil continued to decline, and the trend of PX external price declined. As of August 20, the closing prices in Asia were US $857-859 / T FOB Korea and US $865-867 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

With the spread of delta virus, the market is more worried about limited demand, and the international oil price may still fall. Continue to pay attention to OPEC + production increase, U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventory data, global stock market and economic data, the latest epidemic situation and geographical situation.

The demand side continued to be weak, and toluene fluctuated with the trend of crude oil in the short term. Overall, toluene may still fall, but the decline is limited. Pay attention to the changes in downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market trends on toluene prices.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of domestic local refiners fluctuated downward this week. On August 22, the average price of Shandong market was 2568.50 yuan / ton, down 0.58% from the average price of petroleum coke market on August 16 was 2583.50 yuan / ton.

On August 22, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 199.77, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.06% from the highest point 201.91 in the cycle (2021-08-18), and up 198.65% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, refineries started to resume production one after another, but some refineries were overhauled, the supply of petroleum coke increased, the demand was good, and the price of locally refined petroleum coke rose and fell.

Upstream: international crude oil fell sharply, mainly due to the Fed’s expectation of tightening monetary policy, which led to the continuous appreciation of the US dollar and lowered the valuation of oil prices. What is more important is the joint effect of the dual pressure of increasing production in oil producing countries and cooling demand under the influence of the epidemic.

Downstream: the price of upstream petroleum coke is high, and carbon enterprises continue to operate under pressure under the cost pressure of carbon enterprises; Calcined coke prices are rising steadily; Metal silicon market continues upward trend; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of August 22, the price was 20120.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 5 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 33rd week of 2021 (8.16-8.20), including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were coking coal (5.41%), coke (4.23%) and liquefied natural gas (3.68%). A total of 10 commodities decreased month on month, and 2 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were WTI crude oil (- 7.22%), Brent crude oil (- 5.86%) and liquefied gas (- 3.18%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.56%.

According to the petroleum coke analysts of business society, the local refineries have started to resume production recently, and the supply of local petroleum coke has increased, but the demand is good, the electrolytic aluminum market performs well, and the carbon enterprises are under pressure. It is expected that the petroleum coke may rise steadily in the near future.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was 2466.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2600 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 5.41% and a price increase of 92.59% over the same period last year. Coking coal prices are running at a high level.

On August 20, the coking coal commodity index was 191.88, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 327.25% from the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

According to the business society, in terms of supply, coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future, and in terms of origin, the coal in origin has increased recently. However, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the supply of coking coal in the main origin is still relatively tight, and the contradiction between coking coal supply and demand still exists.

Demand: coke has experienced two rounds of rising this week and landed quickly. As of this Friday, coking enterprises in Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other main production areas have started the fifth round of raising 120 yuan / ton, and the downstream has not responded yet. In terms of supply, coking enterprises have reduced their output to a certain extent due to the difficulty of raw material procurement and the impact of production restriction and conversion in some areas. At present, the inventory in the plant is mostly low, the manufacturers are active in operation and have good sales. In terms of downstream demand, the steel mills have been active in purchasing this week, actively increasing storage, providing good support for coke demand, improving the steel mills’ purchasing enthusiasm and high demand for replenishment.

According to the coking coal analyst of business society, coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future, and the coal in the producing area has increased recently. However, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the supply of coking coal in the main producing area is still relatively tight, and the contradiction between coking coal supply and demand still exists; In terms of downstream coke, the coke price is relatively strong, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream steel mills is not reduced. At present, the inventory in coke enterprises is mostly low, the manufacturers start actively and sell well. Coke still has a strong demand for supplementary storage of coking coal. Overall, the price of coking coal in the later stage still maintained a strong trend.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell first and then rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 70266.67 yuan / ton, up 0.9% from 69641.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 21.24% from the beginning of the week and 39.02% year-on-year.

Macro aspect: at the beginning of the week, as the US non farm data in July was better than market expectations, the Fed narrowed its expectations, resulting in a decline in metal prices and a slight decline in copper prices; Later, as the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, it will boost metal demand and drive the metal rebound.

Supply side: the strike of copper mine has been disturbed continuously. At the end of July, Escondida mine of BHP, andina mine of Codelco and jxnippon Mining &; The trade union of the casrones mine owned by metals (about 3500 mining workers) voted to strike after they rejected the management’s new labor agreement and entered the government mediation stage with the intervention of the Labor Office (DT) in the first week of August. The strike of several copper mines triggered concerns about the shortage of copper supply, which made the copper price strong. However, on the last day of this week, the largest copper mine, Escondida copper mine, negotiated a contract, avoided a strike and eased the tension in the copper mine.

Demand: in the new year of real estate completion, the sales of home decoration market are hot, and the market presents a situation of off-season. In the first half of the year, the completed investment in power grid reached 36.7% of the planned investment. In the second half of the year, the orders of State Grid and the post flood reconstruction project in Henan will strongly support the consumption of electrolytic copper.

LME copper inventory

To sum up: the supply and demand are weak, but the supply interference is greater than expected, and the total inventory continues to decline. It is difficult to effectively increase the inventory in August. As time gradually approaches the peak season, the demand for goods increases, and the price fluctuation range rises. It is expected to maintain a high fluctuation pattern in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of domestic vitamin C remained stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C remained stable at 49.33 yuan / kg.

According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic vitamin C market is light. At present, the mainstream price of food grade is 46-48 yuan / kg, and that of feed grade is 43-45 yuan / kg. The market quotation is falsely high, and the market transaction price is mainly negotiated. The downstream demand is general, and supply and demand are the main. The manufacturer will not quote for the time being during some maintenance. The production and sales of vitamin C market are weak, and the price is stable.

Corn: the upstream corn price rose slightly, and the overall market fluctuated, rising by 0.15% during the week. The overall market fluctuation is small, and the support for vitamin C is limited.

The price of vitamin A fell this week, with an average price of 295 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 289 yuan / kg at the weekend, down 2.26%. The decline of vitamin A increased this week, mainly due to the continuous loss of the downstream pig industry, the continuous downturn of the demand in the terminal meat market, the fluctuation of pig price at 15-16 yuan / kg, the high feed cost and the continuous light purchase of feed additives. Traders are eager to buy goods, there is more room for price negotiation, weak demand support and falling prices.

The price of vitamin E remained stable this week, with an average price of 74.33 yuan / kg. It is understood that Zhejiang Pharmaceutical vitamin E plant will be shut down for maintenance, and no external quotation will be made for the time being. Downstream demand is general, traders are eager for goods, and ve prices are temporarily stable.

Future forecast

The vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that: on the whole, the demand of the vitamin market is weak, and the price is difficult to rise significantly. Affected by the epidemic situation and the depression of the feed industry, it is expected that the recent vitamin price shock will be mainly lower.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14350 yuan / ton on August 9 and 14250 yuan / ton on August 15. Caprolactam prices fell 0.7% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of August 15, Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price was 15100 yuan / ton, 400000 tons / year, the unit was started normally, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 14700 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14700 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14700 yuan / ton, 300000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 13800 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

The raw material pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On August 8, the price of pure benzene was 7450-7700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 7610 yuan / ton. On August 15, the price of pure benzene was 7450-7600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 7540 yuan / ton. The average price fell by 70 yuan / ton, or 0.92%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 119.19%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that although the price of raw material pure benzene has fallen at present, the cost support is weak, and the decline may stop next week. The supply of caprolactam increased and still increased. Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and the demand is general. It is expected that in the short term, caprolactam market will be dominated by weak consolidation and operation, and the price may decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of chlorinated paraffin was stable this week. On August 9, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6100 yuan / ton, and on August 15, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6100 yuan / ton, with stable price.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic chlorinated paraffin started stably and the unit operated normally. At present, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 5800-6000 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China is about 5800 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 5000-5700 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 6600 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 5800-6200 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the liquid wax market was stable this week, the price had no obvious change, and some enterprises stopped production. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the liquid chlorine market is stable and the demand is acceptable.

3、 Future forecast

Business society chlorinated paraffin analysts believe. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin raw materials was stable, the market trading was stable, and the supply and demand were balanced. Demand side purchase on demand. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly in the short term.

The market of nitrile rubber rose slightly this week (8.9-8.13). According to the monitoring of business society, as of August 13, the price of nitrile rubber was 22500 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.35% compared with 22200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The ex factory price of domestic nitrile rubber increased. According to the monitoring of business society, Lanzhou Petrochemical nitrile n41e reported 20200 yuan / ton as of August 13; 3305e quoted 21300 yuan / ton; Ningbo shunze 65000 T / a unit operates normally, and the manufacturer has a large inventory. The ex factory price of nitrile 3355 / 3365 is 21300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 3380 is 22400 yuan / ton. In August, the start-up of the downstream rubber products industry has not increased significantly, and the demand is mainly stable.

Butadiene, the raw material, has pulled back from its high level since late July and continued to fall this week, with weak cost support. According to the monitoring of business society, as of August 13, the price of butadiene was 10697 yuan / ton, down 3.65% from 11102 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business society believe that the demand side is stable, but the cost side support is weaker. It is expected that the NBR market will be consolidated at a high level in the later stage.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise at the beginning of the month this week. On August 12, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 95800 yuan / ton, which was 4.59% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 91600 yuan / ton on August 8). On August 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 99000 yuan / ton, which was 4.43% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 94800 yuan / ton on August 8). On the 12th, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was about 94000 ~ 100000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was about 98000 ~ 104000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, the recent price rise of lithium carbonate is gratifying, and the market demand has increased significantly. With the tight supply of goods, the price is changing almost at any time, and some enterprises suspend quotation due to frequent price fluctuations. From the perspective of the production expansion rate of cathode materials in the second half of this year, the demand for lithium salt began to increase, and the situation of short supply may continue to maintain, which also brings a positive trend to the development of lithium salt market in the future. Coupled with the rapid development of new energy vehicle industry, the lithium resource sector is favored by the market.

The price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide in the downstream continues to rise. Due to the high price of spodumene and pressure on the cost, some smelters are still in the maintenance period, the tight spot supply situation continues, the demand side performs well, and the market atmosphere is active, driving the price focus upward. In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the market mainly operates stably, the supply and demand are balanced, the price trend is stable, the downstream just needs to purchase, the price fluctuation range is small, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

On August 11, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 242.55, up 4.08 points from yesterday, down 40.13% from the highest point 405.10 in the cycle (2018-01-07), and up 146.14% from the lowest point 98.54 on October 16, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The lithium carbonate analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of spodumene at the upstream raw material end of lithium carbonate market is high, while the downstream demand is rapid, resulting in a tight supply of lithium carbonate. In addition, the output of salt lakes in Qinghai will decrease relatively after the third quarter, which will boost the price of lithium carbonate. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may continue to rise in the short term.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong increased this week. The quotation increased from 740.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 760.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.70%, a year-on-year increase of 77.78% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, and the sulfuric acid commodity index was 118.29 on August 6.

The downstream market was boosted and the willingness to purchase was strengthened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong increased this week, the manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is good. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid quoted 810 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu offered 710 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Changzhou Qinghong offered 980 yuan / ton at the weekend, an increase of 130 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market has been consolidated at a high level recently. The quotation increased from 1646.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1666.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.21%, a year-on-year increase of 141.55% compared with the same period last year, and the cost support is good. The downstream bromine market fell slightly, and the quotation fell from about 44125.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 43750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.85%, a year-on-year increase of 59.41% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

The market outlook fell slightly

In the middle of August, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province mainly fell slightly. The upstream sulfur price has been adjusted at a high level recently, with good cost support, but the downstream bromine market began to decline slightly, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in Shandong market in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may fluctuate and fall slightly.