According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market trend mainly fell in November, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of November 29, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8340.00 yuan / ton, up or down – 3.58% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of raw propylene, the overall propylene market in November was dominated by bad market. Enterprises mainly complete the orders of old customers, lack of gas in the downstream, lack of new orders, and just need. The price of upstream raw materials declined as a whole, and the spot price continued to decline under the constraints of cost and demand.

In the upstream, the price of direct raw material propylene fell, the power coal and crude oil were weak in November, and the PP cost side support collapsed. At present, PP supply remains stable, and the on-site maintenance production line is reduced. The impact of local environmental protection policies on the market is still, and the operating rate of the industry and its downstream is still average. Although the purchase follow-up of end users was not timely, the automobile and other industries just needed to be stable, raised a certain amount of demand, reduced the supply of low-cost goods in the field, and stabilized after the merchant reported the decline. At present, there is a bottoming force in PP spot price, and the quoted prices of enterprises and traders stopped falling and stabilized at the end of the month.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of November 29, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP was weak. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8583.33 yuan / ton, up or down – 4.10% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of – 5.33%. In November, the demand for PP fiber materials showed a trend of gradual improvement, and the consumption of main downstream non-woven fabrics and their end products gradually increased. Although the price decline of upstream propylene was bad for the PP market, the profits of non-woven fabric enterprises improved due to the decline of costs.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market was stable and weak in November. As of November 29, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business society was about 9683.33 yuan / ton, up or down – 2.35% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In the fourth quarter, during the period of high incidence of rebound of health events in countries in the northern hemisphere, the number of local diagnoses in some areas of China increased. However, the supply of meltblown materials in the field is sufficient, and dilution has a pulling effect on the spot market of meltblown cloth. The main reason for the decline of melt blown materials this month is the weakness of the cost side.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market fell in November, propylene and coal continued to weaken on the cost side, and the upstream support for PP weakened. Spot prices fell, the demand of end enterprises was gradually released, some downstream users just needed to be stable, and PP gradually stopped falling due to its bottom building effect. It is expected that the PP market may stabilize in the short term

Data monitoring shows that on the 26th, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China was about 18000 yuan / ton. Recently, the market demand was weak, the transaction was general, and the manufacturer’s price fluctuated slightly, with a range of no more than 1%.

From the perspective of industry, the market trend of petrochemical raw materials has weakened recently, and the cost pressure of raw materials related to water treatment has decreased; Due to the influence of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, production is limited and production is stopped in many places, the commencement of basic chemicals is affected, the market price difference is large, limited by the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products is stable, and some are adjusted to a small extent. Among them, the market of raw material acrylonitrile has been maintained at about 15250 yuan / ton in the past three days, and the decline rate is about 200 yuan / ton so far this month.

Raw acrylic acid: the recent acrylic acid Market stopped falling and rose. As of the 25th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 16866.67 yuan / ton, up 1.20% from the previous trading day and down 11.69% from the 25th of last month. Driven by the rising price of raw propylene, the cost of acrylic acid is rising, and the plant unit is gradually entering the maintenance stage. It is expected that the short-term market of acrylic acid may be stable and upward.

As for the future, the current raw material price trend is weak and the demand is weak. The market quotation changes little, but subject to the environmental protection in winter and the dual control policy in some regions, the market generally predicts that the market price will rise after the manufacturer’s production is limited in the later stage. However, at present, the price is mainly stable and fluctuates slightly.

Trend of metallic magnesium (11.15-11.19, the same below)

Market analysis this week

This week, magnesium city as a whole showed a trend of first strength and then stability. The supply and demand pattern of magnesium city changed. At the beginning of the week, it continued. Last week, the market turnover was active and the price was strong; In the middle of the week, the price of magnesium continued to rise, but some downstream businesses had exceeded their purchase expectations, held a wait-and-see situation, and the market transaction slowed down; At the end of the week, both upstream and downstream businesses suspended the receipt and release of orders, and the magnesium price was stable at a high level.

As of November 19, the specific price range of each region is as follows: ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 37900-38000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Ningxia is 37900-38000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Taiyuan is 38000-38100 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Wenxi area is 38100-38200 yuan / ton.

The cost of magnesium ingot is greatly hit, and the cost of magnesium ingot is lack of support

In terms of thermal coal: according to the monitoring of the business society, the price of thermal coal is running weakly and stably. With the effect of the national “combination fist” policy of ensuring supply, the overall price has returned to a more reasonable range.

Ferrosilicon: there is no obvious fluctuation in the ferrosilicon spot market as a whole. The mainstream quotation of 72 ferrosilicon in the main production area of Ningxia is around 8500-9000 yuan / ton, the futures disk performance is weak, and ferrosilicon merchants are more cautious about the falling price.

Magnesium ingot inventory is low, and the transaction is beginning to show fatigue

Supply: the factory inventory continues to be low. According to traders, at present, the factory is basically in the order arrangement state, but many people in the industry are pessimistic about the long-term market, and the order arrangement is mainly short-term orders.

Demand: with the replenishment operation some time ago, the downstream procurement gradually entered a cooling off period this week, and some demand customers began to delay the procurement rhythm.

Future forecast

In the early stage, with the low price of power coal and ferrosilicon and the recovery of downstream procurement, coupled with the support of “collection and storage” in Yulin area, the market speculation atmosphere was strong, which strongly promoted the rebound of magnesium price. In the later stage, in view of the slowdown of downstream procurement, most customers accepted and objected at high prices. It can be seen that the power of magnesium ingot price rise is insufficient, but the lack of spot resources of magnesium plant also supports the price. Overall, business analysts believe that the magnesium price may be stable and strong in the short term.

Price rise and fall of major domestic electrolytic manganese markets from November 12 to November 19 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market. Prices on November 12. Prices on November 19. Weekly rise and fall

Yangtze River region., 43000., 43000., 0

Shanghai (barreled), 42500, 42500, 0

Shanghai (bagged), 41500, 41500, 0

This week (November 12 to November 19), 1# electrolytic manganese market price was temporarily stable and fluctuated. The Yangtze River market was 43000 yuan / ton last weekend and 43000 yuan / ton this weekend, flat. Although the weekly comparison price was flat, the electrolytic manganese price first rose and then fell during the week, increased slightly at the beginning of the week and fell back to last week’s price at the end of the week.

Manganese ore: although subject to cost constraints, miners are not willing to cut prices and take goods, the manganese ore market is weak this week under the condition that the silicon manganese alloy market continues to be weak, the overall demand has not been significantly improved and the price reduction phenomenon is obvious. The data on November 12 showed that the price of manganese ore in the port fell. The mainstream Australian block in Tianjin Port reported 44.5 yuan / ton degree, the semi carbonic acid in South Africa reported 35 yuan / ton degree, and the Gabon block reported 42 yuan / ton degree; The price of manganese ore in Qinzhou port also showed a downward trend. The mainstream Australian block reported 47.5 yuan / ton degree, the semi carbonic acid in South Africa reported 38.5 yuan / ton degree, and the Gabon block reported 44 yuan / ton degree.

The electrolytic manganese market entered a weak consolidation period at the end of October. Due to the influence of power production restriction factors in the early stage, the price of electrolytic manganese at home and abroad went up all the way. The price was weak consolidation at the end of October. The mainstream ex factory price of 1# electrolytic manganese this week was concentrated at 41000-42000 yuan / ton, down 1000-1500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price rose tentatively in the middle of the week, but the downstream is afraid of high and cautious in receiving goods. The market looks forward to the latest guidance on steel bidding this month. It is expected that the electrolytic manganese market will continue to maintain the consolidation trend in the short term.

Manganese and silicon: as of November 18, the weekly demand for silicon and manganese was 133114 tons, down 2.04% from last week. The weekly supply of silicon manganese was 191443 tons, an increase of 3.81% over the previous week. The operating rate continued to rise slightly this week, while the demand decreased and increased compared with last week. This week’s notice on the re production restriction of steel mills: the work plan for staggered peak production of iron and steel industry in Hebei Province in the heating season 2021-2022 was issued. The implementation object is iron and steel smelting enterprises in Hebei Province (including central enterprises and Tianjin enterprises), and the implementation time is from November 15, 2021 to March 15, 2022. The scope of implementation is Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Xingtai, Cangzhou and Xinji. Chengde, Zhangjiakou and Qinhuangdao shall be implemented with reference. Phase I: from November 15, 2021 to December 31, 2021, to ensure the completion of the target task of reducing crude steel output in this region. Phase II: from January 1, 2022 to March 15, 2022, with the goal of reducing the increased emission of air pollutants in the heating season, in principle, the proportion of staggered peak production of iron and steel enterprises in relevant cities shall not be less than 30% of the crude steel output in the same period of the previous year. As soon as this news came out, the confidence of the industry was obviously hit, and the overall pessimism increased. News of steel plant shutdown and production reduction continued, and the demand decreased significantly. Recently, some silicon manganese enterprises have also heard the news of shutdown and production restriction, but so far, it does not seem to have a significant impact.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong increased slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose from 12300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12633.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 333.33 yuan / ton, or 2.71%, up 46.90% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, Shandong isooctanol market rose slightly this week. On November 21, the isooctanol commodity index was 92.89, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.44% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 164.27% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016.

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream demand is strengthened

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong increased this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of isooctanol this weekend was about 12600 yuan / ton, which increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week, dominated by contracts; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 12600 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng offered 12700 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, an increase of 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 7897.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7600.83 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.75%, up 9.36% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. DOP quotation increased from 11962.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12137.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.46%, a year-on-year increase of 27.54%. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement increased.

Increased demand and bullish outlook

In late November, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may rise slightly. Upstream propylene fell slightly and cost support weakened, but downstream DOP market rose slightly, downstream market rose and demand increased. According to the isooctanol analysts of business society, the domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly in late November.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the TDI market price trend decreased this week. On November 19, the average market price in East China was 14700 yuan / ton, down 1.18% during the week and 1.67% month on month compared with 14875 yuan / ton on November 13.

The TDI market was weak this week, and the quotation fell slightly during the week. Domestic factories and devices operate normally, suppliers have no inventory pressure, downstream demand continues to be weak, there are few on-site inquiries, the market trading atmosphere is light, cargo holders wait-and-see the market, mainly negotiate shipment, and the offer is continuously reduced during the week. As of the 19th, the reference for domestic goods with tickets in the mainstream market in East China was about 13800-14100 yuan / ton, and that for Shanghai goods with tickets was 14200-14500 yuan / ton, mainly through real order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation was adjusted according to the market news, and the price remained stable during the week.

As of November 19, the operation of domestic TDI plant is as follows:

Factory name Device status

Gansu Yinguang Smooth operation

Wanhua chemical (Yantai) Smooth operation

Cangzhou Dahua Smooth operation

Yantai Juli During the shutdown of the unit, the restart time is uncertain

Xinjiang Juli Unstable device

Shanghai keschuang Smooth operation, and the planned unit maintenance is pushed to December

BASF Shanghai Smooth operation

The upstream toluene market continued to decline, with a decrease of 5.62% during the week. As of November 19, the domestic average price of toluene was 6220.20 yuan / ton. The international oil price fell broadly, the cost support weakened, which dragged down the toluene market mentality, the demand continued to be weak, the market negotiations were light, and the toluene center of gravity moved down due to the drag of xylene.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the domestic TDI market is weak, there is no pressure on the supplier’s factory supply, and the downstream demand continues to be weak. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the market is not significantly good. It is expected that the TDI market will continue to be weak in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the market price was 7897 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7600 yuan / ton, down 3.75%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of business society, propylene (Shandong) prices continued to decline this week. As of Friday, propylene prices in Shandong market were 7600-7700 yuan / ton, and there was little difference in enterprise offers. Enterprises mainly complete the orders of old customers, lack of new orders, lack of downstream gas, and just need. The price of upstream raw materials has declined as a whole. Under the constraints of cost and demand, the price of enterprises has been continuously reduced in order to ship goods smoothly.

Upstream: as of the closing on November 18, WTI rose 0.65 to $79.01/barrel in December, or 0.8%, and Brent rose 0.96 to $81.24/barrel in January, or 1.2%. Sc2201 fell 11.7 yuan / barrel to 500.1 yuan / barrel. The raw material market rose and fell this week, dominated by the decline. The crude oil price fell by 2.96%, propane fell by 0.33%, liquefied gas rose by 1.69%, and methanol fell by 9.59% due to the weakening of raw materials and poor demand.

Downstream: downstream products still fell mainly, including propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin and other products, which decreased significantly due to the reduction of raw material prices and insufficient demand support. The main downstream polypropylene maintained a decline, with a weekly decline of 2.11%. The overall weakness of downstream products is difficult to improve in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business agency believe that the overall market of propylene market is dominated by bad conditions. In the future, with the impact of enterprises eager to buy goods and low-cost sources, propylene prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and fall.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of November 18, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 10400 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 600 yuan / ton, or 5.45%, compared with the price on November 14 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 11000 yuan / ton), and 467 yuan / ton, or 4.70%, compared with the price on November 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 9933 yuan / ton).

This week, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole was weak and operated downward. In early November, mainly supported by tight supply, the market price of n-propanol increased greatly, and the spot market quotation of n-propanol was basically around 10500-11000 yuan / ton. However, the downstream demand side has always given limited support to the n-propanol market. The domestic downstream demand for n-propanol is relatively fixed, and the increase in demand is not obvious. This week (15th), the quotation of some n-propanol dealers in the n-propanol spot market in Shandong Province has been reduced by 200-500 yuan / ton. Then, the overall market has little change, focusing on continuous consolidation and operation. On the 18th, affected by the continuous cold demand, the spot market price of n-propanol in Shandong moved downward again, with a reduction range of around 400-500 yuan / ton. As of the 18th, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 9600-10500 yuan / ton, the low-end price was around 9500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of n-propanol in Nanjing was around 11000-12000 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price. The price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the overall external ethylene market has continued to decline recently. Asian ethylene market prices fell. As of the 17th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1061-1071 / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and fell. As of the 17th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1222-1222 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1162-1170 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 17th, the price was 761-779 yuan / ton. Recently, the external ethylene market continued to decline as a whole, with poor demand, cold market trading atmosphere and difficult transaction.

Internationally, on November 15, the international oil price rose and fell. The main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed slightly, with the settlement price reported at $80.88/barrel, an increase of $0.08, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures closed slightly, reported at $82.05/barrel, a decrease of $0.121 or 0.2%. The oil price has fallen into a stalemate due to the expected increase in supply, demand growth and the strength of the US dollar.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the demand side of n-propanol is relatively calm, the demand side support is general, the supply side support is still tight, and the supply side support is still in. The analysts of business society think that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market mainly focuses on consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (November 17): 17533.33 yuan / ton

On November 17, the melamine market was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, down 6.24% compared with October 17, and up 29.56% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. Recently, the upstream urea market is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the market operating rate has declined slightly, but the demand side performance is still poor, the inventory of some enterprises is under pressure, and the market maintains a light pattern.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.

In the middle of the month, the domestic propane market was dominated by negative factors and returned to the downward trend. At present, the price of propane in Shandong mostly fell to 6000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6225.75 yuan / ton on November 7 and 6033.25 yuan / ton on November 15. The decline rate during the week was 3.09%, up 4.64% compared with October 1.

As of November 15, the mainstream prices of propane (specification: propane,% (V / V) not less than 95) in different regions in China are as follows:

region November 15th

East China 6050-6100 yuan / ton

North China 5950-6150 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5900-6080 yuan / ton

South China 6150-6250 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic propane market price mainly fell as a whole. The rebound of Shandong propane market was blocked and returned to the downward trend. At present, Shandong propane price mostly fell to 6000 yuan / ton. Although it is currently in the traditional peak sales season, the overall trend is weak. The international crude oil fluctuated and fell, with a bad market mentality. In addition, some areas of the northern market were affected by heavy snow during the week, and the transportation was blocked. In terms of supply, the overall supply of propane market is sufficient, but in terms of demand, some regions have warmed up, the downstream demand is insufficient, the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, the inventory pressure is increasing, and consecutive profit making shipments are the main. At present, the market lacks obvious advantages, and the north and South markets are mainly down.

Saudi Aramco announced in November 2021 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 870 USD / T, an increase of 70 USD / t over the previous month; Butane is 830 USD / T, up 35 USD / T compared with the previous month.

At present, on the whole, the market supply is relatively sufficient, the weather in some areas stabilizes, the follow-up of terminal demand is insufficient, the manufacturers’ shipment is blocked, the inventory pressure increases, and small profits are made one after another to stimulate the downstream market to replenish goods. In addition, the decline in international crude oil prices has brought some bad news to the market. It is expected that the situation of supply exceeding demand is difficult to change in the short term, and the trend of propane market is still weak in the short term.