This week, the spot tin market price (10.14-10.21) fell in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 181910 yuan/ton last weekend and 176460 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly drop of 3%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will continue to weaken after April 2022, with only partial weekly price increases, and the increase is relatively low. The overall trend is mainly downward.

Futures market situation this week

Variety., closing price., compared with the same period of last week., inventory volume (ton)., compared with last week’s inventory change (ton)

Shanghai tin, 168450 yuan/ton, – 13530 yuan/ton, 2754.,+1132

London tin, 18745 dollars/ton, – 1175 dollars/ton, 4575.,+5

The trend of futures market this week is similar to that of Shanghai Tin, which is mainly downward. In particular, Shanghai Tin fell to a new low of 162730 yuan/ton in two years on the 21st, closing down 2.67% on a single day on the 21st. On the macro level, the trend of the dollar was high and consolidated. The metal market was generally under pressure, and Shanghai Tin fell 5.09% on a weekly basis. This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin has been replaced. The trend of Lunxi this week is basically similar to that of Shanghai Tin, falling 6.30% under macro pressure next week.

As for the spot market, it followed the trend of Shanghai Tin this week, with overall shocks and downturns. This week, the market quotation was cautious, the overall transaction was average, and it still remained on demand. The atmosphere in the market was cold. In terms of supply, the impact of power restriction in Yunnan on tin industry is limited, and the main production capacity is not significantly affected. Only some regions are slightly affected by transportation, and the overall supply of domestic market is still loose. In terms of downstream demand, the performance of electronic products is still weak, the support for overseas demand is soft, the sales of tin terminal consumer goods, electronics, household appliances and other products are poor, and the market expectation is still soft. The market news said that Indonesia, the main producer, planned to restrict tin exports, but the government has not yet announced a clear time point, so the impact on the market can be ignored. In general, tin is still in a situation of loose supply and weak demand. However, there are many macro negative factors in the near future, and tin’s own inventory is low, which is significantly affected by macro news and domestic capital disturbance. The tin price without the support of fundamentals is expected to maintain a wide range of concussion in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are five kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 42nd week of 2022 (10.17-10.21), with zinc (1.78%), lead (0.92%) and aluminum (0.86%) in the top three. There were 14 kinds of goods that declined month on month, and 1 kind of goods that declined more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of monitored goods in this sector; The top three products of the decline were praseodymium metal (-5.97%), praseodymium oxide (-3.97%) and neodymium oxide (-2.60%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.97%.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of PVC calcium carbide SG5 fell this week. On Friday, the average price of domestic PVC was 6281.43 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6178.51 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.64% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of PVC domestic spot market fell this week, and futures prices also fell. The overall market operation of the market is weak, the spot market transaction is not good, the confidence is insufficient, the market price gradually falls slightly, and the actual transaction is limited. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide is mostly around 5750-6450 yuan/ton.

For crude oil, on October 20, the settlement price of international crude oil futures was basically the same as that of the previous trading day. The settlement price of December contract (month) of US WTI crude oil futures was 84.51 dollars/barrel, down 0.01 dollars; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 92.38 dollars/barrel, down 0.03 dollars. The game between supply and demand intensified, and oil prices fell into a stalemate.

In terms of calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose from 3950 yuan/ton at the weekend to 3966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 0.42%. In late October, the calcium carbide market fell mainly due to narrow shocks. The price of raw material semicarbon runs at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. The PVC market in the downstream has experienced a narrow range of shock and decline, and the downstream demand has weakened. In late October, calcium carbide prices in northwest China may fall in a narrow range.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that the current prices of PVC both fell this week, depressing market confidence. The overall market demand is light, new orders are limited, and the trading atmosphere is poor. It is expected that the PVC market price will be weak and stable in the short term. Pay close attention to the changes in the message.

The trend of domestic gasoline and diesel is divergent. As of the 14th, the price of domestic 92 # gasoline was 8420 yuan/ton, and the price fell 3.14% after the National Day holiday; The domestic price of 0 # diesel oil was 8786.6 yuan/ton, and the market price increased by 0.24%, mainly because of the demand. The demand for diesel oil was improving, the demand for gasoline was declining, and the price trend of gasoline and diesel oil was diverging.

Supply side: In October, the operating rate of Shandong refineries was maintained, and the supply side was loose. The local refineries were relatively abundant in resource supply. The main shipping pressure remained, and the gasoline price fell under pressure. In the near future, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in Shandong’s main refineries has maintained about 65%, the manufacturer’s inventory has been maintained, and the supply of gasoline and diesel is loose. Therefore, the supply of refined oil resources is limited, the operators’ intention to enter the market is reduced, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is light.

Demand side: after the National Day holiday, the epidemic situation in some areas has occurred occasionally, the travel of residents has decreased, the demand for gasoline has declined, and the price of gasoline has declined. In terms of diesel, at present, large-scale industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries are actively speeding up. At the same time, it is autumn harvest in the north, and agricultural oil use is increasing. With the decrease of temperature and rainy weather, the operating rate of outdoor infrastructure and industrial and mining has increased, and diesel demand remains high. Since October, diesel sales have been good, and diesel prices have risen slightly.

In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price has risen since October. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price has risen by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side is difficult to ease. The World Bank and the IMF warned that the risk of global economic recession is growing, The IMF also lowered its economic growth forecast for next year. After the holiday, the crude oil price fell for three consecutive days. As of the 13th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was 89.11 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was 94.57 dollars/barrel. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories. On the whole, the price of crude oil rose, the cost support remained, and the domestic oil product market was supported to some extent.

Future market forecast: Chen Ling, an oil product analyst from the business community, believes that OPEC+’s crude oil production reduction news is good for the oil market, but economic concerns continue to pressure oil prices, and international oil prices remain volatile in the short term. On the domestic side, there is no good holiday boost in the short term, travel is limited in some regions, gasoline demand is poor, and prices are still at risk of falling. At present, the operation rate of large-scale industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries is stable. At the same time, the autumn harvest is coming in the north, and the agricultural oil use is increasing. With the temperature decreasing, the northern region has begun to replace the negative resources. The diesel resources are relatively tight, but the diesel gradually approaches the price limit level, and the increase will be limited.

From October 8, 2022 to October 14, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzol rose. Last weekend, it was 6729 yuan/ton, and this weekend, it was 6915 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.76%.

In terms of crude oil, as OPEC+plans to significantly reduce production from November, the oil price has risen continuously during the festival, and Brent’s price rose by 9.96 dollars/barrel, or 11.32%, during the National Day; WTI rose by 13.15 dollars/barrel, or 16.54%. However, the market’s concern about economic recession still depressed the oil price, which mainly fell after the festival. As of October 14, Brent’s price fell by 6.29 dollars/barrel, or 6.42%, compared with last week; WTI fell by 7.03 USD/barrel, or 7.59%. Global inflation remains high, which strengthens the expectation of the central bank to raise interest rates, increases the risk of economic recession, and then weakens the demand for fuel, overshadowing the positive effect of OPEC+production cuts in oil producing countries.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

September 6., 7750.,+150

September 20., 7850.,+100

October 8., 8000.,+150

October 10., 8200.,+200

October 13., 8000., – 200

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene will be reduced by 200 yuan/ton on October 13, 2022, and the current price is 8000 yuan/ton.

Quotation of other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical 8200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical 8103 yuan/ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical 8200 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, and it has recovered slightly at the end of August and the beginning of September, and declined slightly in October.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell this week. The opening of the market after the festival was boosted by the surge of crude oil during the festival. The pure benzene market in Asia in the external market rose, and the domestic market was in a strong positive atmosphere. After the festival, the pure benzene market rose again. The listing price of Sinopec pure benzene rose continuously to 8200 yuan/ton, and most enterprises had a certain degree of demand for replenishment after the festival. The market transactions were good. In the later period, crude oil and styrene fell, and negative fundamentals dragged down the pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene was dragged down, and the overall market trading slowed down. However, the market cycle of hydrogenated benzene basically followed the trend of pure benzene, maintaining the trend of rising first and then falling. However, with the weakening of fundamentals, the downstream price depression mentality was strong, and the price of hydrogenated benzene fell back to its high at the weekend. In the future market, the fundamentals weaken the pure benzene market, which is bad for the pure benzene market. The port inventory in East China is low as a whole. There are some maintenance plans for the downstream devices of pure benzene in the near future, which may delay the demand for pure benzene. The pure benzene industry chain may decline. In the future market, the focus is on the downstream construction in the fourth quarter and the impact of crude oil trends on the price of pure benzene.

The crude benzol price continued to rise this week, with a small overall increase. The bidding price in Shandong Province this week was 6820~6830 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 25 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the production limit of coking enterprises increased this week compared with the earlier period, and the supply of crude benzol contracted compared with the earlier period, which boosted the market to a certain extent. Downstream benzol hydrogenation enterprises have recently started to recover, and the demand for crude benzol is fair after the festival, which has certain support for crude benzol. However, the overall trend of the industrial chain is weak, which hinders the crude benzol price to rise. The crude benzol price only rose slightly this week. In the future market, the crude benzol market is a good and bad game. In the case of the expected tightening of the follow-up supply, the crude benzol price is expected to fluctuate mainly.

This week, the spot tin market price (10.8-10.14) fell in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 185460 yuan/ton last weekend and 181910 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly drop of 1.91%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will continue to weaken after April 2022, with only partial weekly price increases, and the increase is relatively low. The overall trend is mainly downward.

Futures market situation this week

Variety., closing price., compared with the same period of last week., inventory volume (ton)., compared with last week’s inventory change (ton)

Shanghai tin, 181980 yuan/ton, – 1560 yuan/ton, 2754.,+1132

London tin, 19920 dollars/ton,+515 dollars/ton, 4575.,+5

The futures market mainly declined this week, and Shanghai Tin fell 0.3% this week. After the festival, Shanghai Tin opened lower due to the weakness of the external market. The price rebounded slightly in the middle of the week, and then fell in shock. During the holiday, the international macro news fluctuated frequently. The crude oil rose for five consecutive days. The market worried about the US economic recession. The US dollar index fell for two consecutive days. The LME metal market was mixed. Driven by the rise of the oil sector, the atmosphere in the domestic futures market is generally optimistic. The trend of the nonferrous metal market is relatively divergent in the week, and Lunxi has stopped falling and stabilized.

The spot market followed the trend of Shanghai Tin this week. The overall trend was volatile and downward. The overall fluctuation range was small, around 4000 yuan/ton. In terms of the market, the market quotation at the beginning of the week was cautious, the overall transaction was average, and the atmosphere in the factory was cold. After the festival, the market will maintain just in need of procurement and have a certain purchase intention. Fundamentally speaking, the support of overseas demand in the near future is weak, the sales of tin terminal consumer goods, electronics, household appliances and other products are poor, and the market expectation is weak. In terms of supply, the supply of imported goods increased, the quotation of imported goods in the market increased, and the domestic supply of tin ingots was slightly loose compared with the previous period. After the festival, the downstream continued to maintain just in demand procurement and bargain hunting, and the market trading atmosphere was light. Due to the low inventory of tin, it is obviously disturbed by the macro and domestic capital. The business community expects that the future tin price will still be affected more by the macro, mainly maintaining a wide range of shocks.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of October 14, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10766.67 yuan/ton, down 4.44% compared with the price on Monday, down 5.00% compared with the price on September 14, and down 17.50% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The epichlorohydrin market was weak this week. After the festival, the raw material propylene was weak and declined. The cost of propylene method had little impact. The cost pressure of glycerin method remained. The factory was active in shipping, but the downstream mainly consumed the raw materials in stock. The low price just required small orders to replenish. The enthusiasm of inquiry was not high. The shipment of the cargo holders was not smooth. The mentality of the operators was under pressure. The market atmosphere was light and the focus of the epichlorohydrin market negotiation was down.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell significantly after the festival. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7780 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7620 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 2.06%, up 2.42% from 30 days ago.

The reference price of downstream epoxy resin was 20133.33 on October 13, down 1.95% compared with October 1 (20533.33).

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current supply and demand support is weak, the shipment of the holders is under pressure, and the market mentality is insufficient. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business community, this week, Shanxi’s industrial grade first grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 6425.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market was in shock and consolidation. It can be seen from the figure above that the potassium nitrate market declined in the past two months, and this week the market continued to fall. The domestic market price of potassium chloride was consolidated, the supply of imported potassium was sufficient, and there were successively ports for arrival. The devices of domestic manufacturers are under normal operation and are being shipped in succession. The lower reaches maintain the demand for procurement, the market transaction is average, and the potassium nitrate market is basically stable. According to the statistics of the business community, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 6200-6500 yuan/ton this week (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride is stable. Recently, the supply of imported potassium chloride is relatively sufficient, and the port still has new supply of goods in succession. The spot market of potassium chloride in China was generally traded, and the price of potassium chloride fell slightly. It is expected that the potassium chloride market will consolidate at a low level in the future.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market is weak, and the cost support is poor. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

DOTP prices fell slightly in September

According to the data monitoring of the business community, in the first and second quarters of 2022, the DOTP price will be adjusted to a high level, and in the third quarter, the DOTP price will enter the off-season. The DOTP price will be adjusted to a low level, and in September, the DOTP price will be stabilized. The DOTP price on September 29 was 10075 yuan/ton, down 0.98% from 10175 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. With the advent of the golden nine and silver ten, the DOTP price could have changed its declining trend and reached a new high. However, the spot transaction was sluggish, and the DOTP rose weakly. In September, the DOTP price fell slightly.

The price of isooctanol dropped slightly in September

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol dropped in September. As of September 29, the price of isooctanol was 8866.67 yuan/ton, down 2.92% from 9133.33 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctanol fell, the cost of DOTP fell, and the positive support of DOTP weakened.

PTA prices rose first and then fell in September

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the PTA price rose first and then fell in September. The overall PTA market was volatile and stable. As of September 29, the PTA price was 6379.17 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from 6355.83 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. In September, the starting load of PTA was low, there were many enterprises that stopped production for maintenance, the supply of PTA was insufficient, the PTA price fluctuated and stabilized, and the DOTP cost support was insufficient.

Domestic PVC output

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2022, the output of primary morphoplastic decreased by 2.6% year on year; From January to August, the output of primary form plastics totaled 73.78 million tons, up 0.6% year on year; In August, the output of plastic products was 6.441 million tons, down 6.9% year on year. From January to August, the output of plastic products was 5054.7 tons, down 4.9%. The output of PVC products in the downstream declined, the demand for plasticizers declined, the demand for DOTP was insufficient, and the downward pressure on DOTP was large.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DOTP data from the business association believed that, in terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol dropped slightly, PTA price stabilized, the cost of plasticizer DOTP stabilized, and DOTP’s rising momentum stabilized; In terms of demand, the output of PVC products declined, the demand for plasticizers was insufficient, and DOTP fell under great pressure. The central banks of the United States and the seven European and African countries raised interest rates, and a series of radical policies intensified the market’s concern about the global economic outlook. PVC demand in September was lower than expected. The peak season is not prosperous, and the demand for plasticizer is insufficient. In the future, the demand for cost stabilization is insufficient, and the upward momentum of DOTP is weakened. The downward pressure is increased. It is expected that the DOTP price will become stable in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market prices of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn in Shandong Province were basically stable in September. Downstream orders lacked the downward impact of superimposed costs, and prices fell slightly near the end of the month. As of September 30, the average market price of pure polyester yarn in Shandong was 14150 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the beginning of the month and 1.57% year on year; The average market price of polyester cotton yarn was 18140 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the beginning of the month. It is understood that most of the downstream cotton mills have National Day holidays ranging from 3 to 7 days.

This month, the trading of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn continued to be light. As of the end of the month, the demand of pure polyester and polyester cotton in the market accounted for 29%, and the varieties were mainly T/C knitting/woven, R/T knitting and CVC knitting. The enterprise mainly takes delivery of goods in the warehouse, the overall market transaction is average, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see mentality. The new orders in the downstream are insufficient, the purchase of weaving mills is reduced accordingly, and the price drops partially, showing a steady and declining trend in general. At present, the downstream is mainly for coarse count canvas and gauze card orders. The market is short of coarse count bleaching and dyeing yarn, with a trend of price increase. The 32s and 50s of pure polyester yarn are not well sold in the market, compared with the 45s, which is mainly used to produce polyester cotton lining series; In the near future, the orders of 7s and 10s coarse count yarns in the downstream have increased, and the price has risen slightly; The trading volume of polyester cotton yarn market is not large, and the prices of some 65/35 varieties are stable; The cotton mills in Hebei are in normal production, the polyester cotton yarn shipments are fair, the price is stable, the inventory pressure is not large, and the retroactive quotation of foreign cotton increases; The demand for TC and CVC10-16 pieces of air spinning products in Yancheng market has also increased, mainly for the orders of sanitary clothes and school uniforms.

As the National Day holiday approaches, the stock preparation before the festival has basically ended. The market adjustment of polyester staple fiber is waiting to take the lead. The overall price fluctuates with the raw materials. However, Xinfengming Zhonglei has reduced production, and the overall start of staple fiber remains at a low level, and the performance is relatively resistant to decline when the raw materials are operating under the strong support and loss of Chen Benduan. The cotton prices at home and abroad were under pressure, and the trading center fell significantly, with Zheng cotton falling below 104 and American cotton falling below 95 cents/pound. The domestic market is under pressure from factors such as the high yield of new cotton, the deterioration of Xinjiang cotton ban, which may affect the demand expectation, and the cautious attitude of ginners in purchasing new cotton, and the cotton price continues to be under pressure; However, the international market maintained a wide range of concussion under the circumstances of weaker demand expectation, supply side tension or less than expected, and weather disturbance.

At present, the export orders and home textile market are growing slowly, and the seasonal growth of domestic clothing demand is difficult to drive the overall downstream demand. Textile enterprises in various regions said that the “golden nine silver ten” has been more than half, and orders did not meet the delivery deadline as in previous years. The inquiry for large orders has warmed up, but the actual transactions are less, most of which are small batch purchases and lofting, and the continuity is not strong. The average order is only about 70% of the previous years. Influenced by the weak situation, most enterprises are in a wait-and-see attitude. Although it is in the peak season, the overall pessimism still exists. On the whole, the future market is mainly bearish.

In terms of operating rate, the operating rate of large textile mills in Anqing, Anhui can reach about 80-90%, and the operating rate of small textile mills fluctuates around 60-70%. The market in Qianqing is relatively stable. Although stock replenishment is not active, the operating rate of textile mills and textile mills can remain relatively stable. The operating rate of textile mills in Foshan, Guangdong has a small downward trend, which can still be maintained at 50-60%. The operating load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased slightly to more than 71%, But overall, the “Golden Nine” is not good enough.

Multiple factors, such as shrinking international market demand and falling prices of chemical fiber and cotton textile raw materials, slowed down the export growth of terminal textiles and clothing in August. According to the latest data of China Customs, China’s textile and clothing exports in August were 208.99 billion yuan, up 7.3%, down 6.8% month on month. Among them, textile exports were 84.27 billion yuan, up 4.1%, down 8% month on month, and clothing exports were 124.72 billion yuan, up 9.6%, down 5.9% month on month.

Future market forecast: on the cost side, crude oil is weak, cotton prices at home and abroad are under pressure, and the trading center has dropped significantly, resulting in insufficient cost drive. At the same time, textile and clothing consumption performance is low, and textile enterprises have obviously felt the “cold”. As the National Day holiday approaches, the downstream weaving is facing a reduction in load, and the yarn mill will need to further move the goods to the warehouse. To sum up, the market price of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn will move downward.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic adipic acid market recovered in September, and the price rebounded at the bottom. The monthly increase was 7.47%. At the end of the month, the market price range of adipic acid in East China was 9800-10200 yuan/ton. The rise of raw materials has led to the improvement of cost, and the lower operating rate has eased the supply pressure. The manufacturer has raised prices to support the market, and the downstream just needs to follow up.

In terms of market supply, the adipic acid operating rate was low this month, maintaining 40% for the whole month. The manufacturer generally raised the price, and the monthly collection price of Nevada rose twice, totaling 1000 yuan. The inventory pressure continues to ease, multiple sets of devices are overhauled, and Haili, Hualu and Huafeng have two sets of devices shut down for overhaul. In the last ten days, Haili has a set of devices for trial operation, but the supply is limited. In addition, Liaohua unit maintenance, Zhonghao single line operation, Hongding shutdown, other units’ load reduction operation, significant inventory reduction of enterprises, and reduced supply pressure are the main reasons for the price of adipic acid to go out of the rebound trend. In addition, the manufacturer’s profit continued to hang upside down before, which is also the reason why the enterprise stopped production or reduced the burden.

Trend of adipic acid industry chain

The above figure shows that adipic acid industry chain has improved significantly this month, and most products have turned red. From the perspective of the increase in the industrial chain, the performance of the upstream is weaker, and the resilience of adipic acid is stronger. In addition, the downstream PA66 has the largest increase compared with the upstream products. This shows that the profit pressure of enterprises in adipic acid and downstream areas has been significantly relieved.

Market Trend of Adipic Acid Upstream Pure Benzene

Pure benzene rose by 3.72% in shock this month, 1.55% higher than the same period last year. This month, Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased by 250 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the demand has improved significantly: the prices of most downstream products have risen, and the profitability has improved. Downstream shutdown devices were restarted successively in the early stage, and the demand for pure benzene was repaired. The improvement of the demand side drove the pure benzene higher. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month, but due to the impact of typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level. The price of pure benzene at the end of the month is 7850-8100 yuan/ton.

Market trend of cyclohexanone in the upstream of adipic acid

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market of cyclohexanone stopped falling and recovered in September. The monthly increase was 3.66%, mainly due to the strong rigidity of raw material pure benzene and the support of cost. Downstream caprolactam rose steadily. Chemical fiber companies need to follow up. Driven by the good news of cyclohexanone, the low price decreased and the transaction focus increased. At the end of the month, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 9900 yuan/ton.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: continuous improvement in the downstream of adipic acid. The inventory consumption of adipic acid plants is double festival in the month. The goods preparation is started before the festival, and the purchasing intention of the purchasing terminal is enhanced. Take the downstream PA66 as an example, the market rebounded strongly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the downstream PA66 increased by 11.24% in September, which is currently in the traditional peak demand season, and the demand of downstream factories has increased. The business confidence was enhanced and the trading atmosphere was improved. At the end of the month, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was 24750 yuan/ton.

In the later stage, the business community believed that the rise of pure benzene and cyclohexanone would provide action force for adipic acid, but the volatile decline of crude oil price in the later stage might limit the rise of pure benzene. Cost advantage or weakening in the later period. And the demand side is also showing more and more pressure, and the downstream resistance psychology is increasing. However, the supply side will still support its price, and the operating rate will remain low in the short term. Overall, the adipic acid growth will continue to slow down in October, with a high probability of stabilizing in the short term.