Sub industry faces: the relationship between supply and demand in different climate is different

The industry has increased income lead paint (51%), (25.5%), alkali polyester polyurethane (21.3%), (18.1%), fluoride chemical industry (13.1%); brought down the fertilizer industry (-17.4%), textile and chemical products (-9.0%) and carbon black (-8.0%) and polyurethane (-5.6%) etc..

The performance of the industry led by polyester (456.1%) and inorganic salt (255.2%), (223.4%), alkali polyurethane (138%), and the pesticide industry recession (-33.9%), chemical fertilizer (-96.3%) and polyurethane (-198.1%), explosive (-33.5%), textile and chemical products (-25.5%).

Chemical fiber: double, blend, ice and fire viscose spandex is booming, winter;

Agricultural sector: agriculture industry small, the wind blowing;

Overall: the continuation of basic chemical recovery, improve profitability

A total of 243 listed companies in the industry, the first three quarters of 2016, operating income reached 701 billion 300 million yuan, an increase of 3.84%, compared to 2015 growth rate has improved, mainly due to the downstream real estate, automobile and other industries to restore growth, driven by consumption increase, the devaluation of the RMB, some chemicals export demand; performance of 29 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 10.49%. business continues to improve, the recovery trend.

Sales gross margin was 18.10%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points, mainly due to oil, minerals and other raw materials at low price, the industry experienced a sustained clearing capacity, concentration gradually improve, to optimize the product structure; to benefit from the interest rate down, finance costs decreased, resulting in reduced costs during the rate.

Chinese crude oil demand will weaken

China from 1999 to 2014 in the crude oil super cycle, has been a factor in boosting oil

prices; in the meantime, oil demand growth China equivalent to Japan and Britain, the

total consumption of oil. At present, Chinese is the world’s largest importer of crude

oil.

Although in recent years Chinese economic slowdown, China crude demand remains strong,

this is because China has been using low oil prices environment of strategic and

commercial reserves.

For example, production quotas still need to go through the cartel agreement. In essence,

all members are struggling in the low price environment, it is not easy to achieve.

According to reports, behind the scenes on the next move, there are obvious differences

between the members of OPEC members; if ultimately failed to reach an agreement, the oil

price is expected to fall sharply.

Following the August China After the crude oil production recorded a historic high of

9.9% decline, followed by the September production cuts and issued a new signal: as the

world’s fifth largest The oil producing countries, Chinese continued to enhance the

efficiency of domestic drilling business plans may help the global oil market from the

excess supply of the transition to the balance of supply and demand.

“Overall, low oil prices finally provides a good excuse or reason for shutting down the

high cost of the enterprise China oilfield. Previously, the oil is almost into local

operations in.”

China yield is the highest and most of the old Daqing and Shandong oilfield in Shengli

Oilfield are considered the lowest efficiency of domestic oil. This is the two largest

oil field Oil producers focus inspection in production cuts at.

Low inventory inventory is one of the main logic bull market tight current. From the latest data, petrochemical stocks and port stocks fell significantly, trade business inventories continue to rise.
Because the Shenhua Xinjiang and Tianhe innovation capacity have been released, and in November Donghua energy production plan and next month no unit overhaul plan plan, market supply supply in the future will increase.
But the coal chemical enterprises affected by the cold weather and transportation resources facing the impact of certain factors such as pressure, the coal chemical supply stability is still uncertain.
The demand side, despite the current downstream demand of remarkable performance, but with the cold weather, the traditional off-season demand begins to come to the society’s ability to digest inventory downstream to the market worried about the market outlook, PP stocks have the potential to further increase.
The spot price will fall

Propylene is the direct materials of PP production, from July to August data, propylene prices pulled straight 800 yuan / ton, propylene imports in July increased in August, has a direct relationship with this period of time the overall stock price lasheng.
With spot prices fell, the downstream demand if not relay, the possibility of a large decline in prices. With the November release of new capacity and maintenance device brought to restart the supply side to accelerate the recovery, the whole society will significantly increase the amount of inventory, PP finished lower probability of a larger trend.

chemical industry in November 2nd, Southern China styrene market to wait and see, the smell of Guangzhou intention to sell 8800 yuan / tons of imports from 8850 yuan / ton, the domestic to caution, firm talk. East China styrene market opened with the intention to sell the spot test, smell 8650 yuan / ton, buying cautious, firm talk. PetroChina northeast styrene prices temporarily stabilized, it’s Jinzhou, Jinxi, Fushun, Daqing and other styrene price 8500 yuan / ton, the device starts at 8-9, output priority and internal mutual supply contracts. Lanzhou HSBC full load production 25 thousand tons / year styrene plant, sales price 8300 yuan / ton, the recent sales, mostly around the southwest. Tianjin Dagu 500 thousand tons / year styrene plant started into about 8, inventory temporarily, smell its core users temporarily perform the price of 8600 yuan / ton, the smell of spot sales increases.

International: U.S. WTI crude oil futures on Tuesday (December November 1st) fell $0.19, or 0.41%, at $46.67 / barrel. Tuesday, January Brent crude futures fell $0.47, or 0.97%, at $48.14 / barrel. The market for the organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production prospects is increasing, while crude oil prices have stimulated some blocked profits, which also increased the downward pressure on prices, but the dollar downside temporarily limit prices fall. Oil prices fell, the peripheral guide is not clear.

Follow up of domestic styrene market buying options, market prices. Domestic production enterprises temporarily stable prices at the beginning of the month, see price stability. The downstream temporary coins, pass the cost pressure or increase profits. Ethylene prices steady decline, benzene prices demand by the downstream manufacturers supporting high profit space is better, and the East China area due to direct sales of production enterprises with terminal factories increased, and part of the cargo or deferred or not to discharge the cause, inventory reduction, increase is expected to do with the original arrival, affect the business mentality, continue to spot pull up.

The price is expected to styrene in the short term the market will maintain a narrow plate, lack of momentum.

nitrate domestic market prices, Anhui mainstream factory price of 1800 yuan / ton, Jiangsu mainstream manufacturers offer 1700 yuan / ton, Shandong mainstream manufacturers offer 1700 yuan / ton, the mainstream manufacturers offer 1800 yuan / ton, take the goods around the nitric acid slightly improved prices are rising.

Domestic industry chain: nitrate market prices, Anhui mainstream factory price of 1200 yuan / ton, Jiangsu mainstream manufacturers offer 1250 yuan / ton, Shandong mainstream manufacturers offer 1150 yuan / ton, the mainstream manufacturers offer 1500 yuan / ton, take the goods around the nitrate slightly improved, prices have to rise slightly. Upstream raw material ammonia nitrate concussion, closed at the weekend the average price of 2225 yuan / ton, raw material prices, support prices limited to nitrate, aniline downstream price shocks in 7708 yuan / ton, the price of 30142 yuan / ton TDI.

Market forecast

Ammonium nitrate prices become a trend this week, ammonium nitrate prices still kept rising, the market is very good, strong demand for normal shipments, manufacturers offer a maximum of 2000 yuan / ton from the road, and more, is expected shortly after the rise in the price of ammonium nitrate.

Figure: October 26th CEO members spoke at the first Chinese Jing Gang rural e-commerce theme of the meeting.

(photo: October 26th CEO in the first Chinese Jing Gang Members of rural e-commerce Theme Conference)

The members of the network founder &CEO Jing Gang think, “The traditional business model, can not really solve the problem of upstream agricultural products.”

One is the traditional electricity business logic is to sell to the countryside, the focus is not to help farmers sell agricultural products, the need to strengthen guidance;

The two is the core features of the traditional business model is not suitable for the electricity supplier of agricultural products, agricultural products because of low profits, low degree of standardization, the supply chain is not complete. The rural electricity supplier buy and sell not cycle system built around the establishment, the main electricity supplier platform or the net goods sold in rural areas, with the help of agricultural products “upstream” effect is not obvious.

As consumers of health and strengthen the awareness of green consumption, furniture product upgrading has become the trend of the development of non formaldehyde and pollution-free green furniture will become a mainstream trend in the development of the industry.

The paint industry, both opportunities and challenges, and is currently in the running, how to keep up with the world’s top 500 team, must seize the paint industry development trend.