Price trends:

According to statistics, this week’s domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene showed a temporary stable trend, with an average weekend price of 7,000 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 7,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 15.66% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable, the domestic PX start-up rate maintains more than 70%, Huizhou refining and chemical plant runs steadily, Fuhaichuang plant starts a line, Pengzhou Petrochemical plant runs steadily, Yangtze Petrochemical PX plant runs normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant runs smoothly, Qingdao Lidong plant runs at full load, Qi Luzhou Petrochemical Plant runs steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant starts at about 50%, Hengli Petrochemical Plant runs normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, recent international crude oil price fluctuation, domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. The opening rate of paraxylene plant in Asia is more than 70% this week, and the supply of PX in Asia is normal. This week, the price of PX external market is slightly lower. By the end of the weekend, the closing price of the Asian market for paraxylene is US$762-764/ton FOB Korea and US$781-783/ton CFR China. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported. PX external market closes. The price fluctuation has brought negative effects to the domestic market, and the price trend of the domestic PX market is temporarily stable.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic crude oil closing price shocks, as of 22 U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price was 55.35 U.S. dollars per barrel, Brent crude oil futures price was 59.92 U.S. dollars per barrel, this week’s crude oil closing price shocks, for downstream petrochemical products prices have little impact, PX market price trend is temporarily stable. The price of PTA market in the lower reaches of this week declined. By the end of the weekend, the price of PTA market in East China was around 5200-5300 yuan. The price of raw material PX market in the upper reaches was stable. Recently, PTA start-up load has been rising to 91%. Several sets of equipment in the supply side have restarted the short-term market. Terminal demand has improved slightly, and polyester start-up stock has fallen back. The downstream polyester start-up load restored to about 88%, and the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 74%. Inventory, polyester FDY inventory fell for 3 days, polyester DTY decreased for 2.5 days, polyester POY decreased for 2 days, downstream demand was general, and the price trend of p-xylene market was temporarily stable.

Industry: This week, the textile industry’s market trend shocks, the textile industry’s start-up rate has not changed much, crude oil prices remain shocks, raw material PX market trend is stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that recent changes in crude oil prices, together with a slight decline in PTA market prices, the downstream textile industry has maintained a high start-up rate, and the domestic PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile next week.

Price trends:

The crude benzol commodity index on August 23 was 61.07, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.68% from the cyclical peak of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and up 55.59% from the lowest point of 39.25 on December 22, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

This week (8.19-8.23) the domestic crude benzol Market rose sharply. The average domestic market price was 3616.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 3 900 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up by 7.83%.

Domestic market: This week’s market positive factors are concentrated, pure benzene external market has risen continuously, downstream profits have gradually increased, bringing benefits to the crude benzene market. As of Friday, prices in Shandong, Shanxi and other major markets have risen to about 4100 yuan/ton, up 500-550 yuan/ton from last week. Demand: downstream hydrobenzene manufacturers are actively starting work. With the increase of the price gap with crude benzene, profits are highlighted. The hydrobenzene market will be in September with active stock and good turnover. Supply side: coking enterprises started relatively stable in the near future, at about 70%, the pressure of environmental protection is still high near National Day, coking enterprises start rate is difficult to rise, crude benzene supply will still be tight.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: International oil prices rose first and then fell this week. Overall, compared with last Friday, Brent rose by 2.9%, WTI rose by 1.62%. Oil prices rose as global stock markets rebounded and geopolitical tensions intensified. Oil prices stopped rising and fell because of uncertainty about the Fed’s interest rate cut prospects. Pure benzene: At the beginning of the week, due to the supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, pure benzene in Korea was arbitraged to the United States. The high price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar plate supported the rise of domestic pure benzene price. On Thursday, the supply of pure benzene in eastern China was tight. Pure benzene companies in Shandong sent their supplies to Eastern China, and the prices of refined pure benzene in Shandong rose.

3. Trend forecast:

Pure benzene external market continues to rise, the market is still expected to rise in Sinopec’s listed price, the market atmosphere is good, crude benzene and pure benzene are relatively stable, it is expected that the future crude benzene market will be dominated by high volatility, if there is downstream demand support, there is still room for future market growth.

Price trends:

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the caustic soda market was stable and small this week. The overall load of the equipment affected by typhoon decreased and the price increased narrowly. However, business associations monitored the overall stability of prices in Shandong, with an offer of 705 yuan/ton of caustic soda in Shandong up to now, which was stable within a week.

II. Market Analysis

Product: The price of caustic soda is stable and small this week. In North China, such as Shandong, the start-up rate of typhoon-affected devices has been reduced, while in some factories, it has been narrowly increased, but the overall impact is not significant. Market TRADERS’purchasing enthusiasm has increased, market supply is tense, and turnover has increased. East China as a whole is relatively weak, and the demand for lower demand is generally affected by the impact of the surrounding market.

Industry chain: 32 liquid alkali overall trend is stable, short-term typhoon impact device start-up rate decreased, supply is slightly tense, liquid chlorine market steady upward, Shandong and East China Xiaoxian obvious, up to the present price of liquid chlorine in Shandong region increased by 100 yuan/ton, Jiangsu Anhui region has also significantly increased.

Industry: Affected by typhoon, the production of chlor-alkali market in Shandong Province has been cut down a lot, and transportation has been hindered, and supply and demand have been reduced.

Business analysts believe that: after the disaster, the equipment has been restored, but the supply can not be improved in the short term. Next week or there is speculation, we still need to pay attention to the downstream factories. We expect that the caustic soda market will adjust narrowly in the short term, and see the downstream market demand specifically.

Commodity Index: On August 18, the Polyaluminium Chloride Commodity Index was 104.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.34% from the peak of 108.11 points in the cycle (2019-04-24), and up 3.57% from the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: Among the main manufacturers monitored by business associations, the mainstream price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was 1933.33 yuan/ton on August 1, and the market price of this product was stable at 1933.33 yuan/ton on August 18. In addition, the quotation of some factories in Gongyi District of Henan Province has risen. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the price range of the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride at present is: solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (>28%) with tax quotation of 1800-2200 yuan/ton, liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%) with tax quotation of 350-500 yuan/ton, the quotation of individual manufacturers rises, and solid quotation of polyaluminium chloride increases. Up 100-200 yuan/ton, liquid up to 50 yuan/ton, the overall range of domestic price quotations increased.

Industry chain: In recent upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid has been stable this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid market was 123.33 yuan/ton from 13th to 18th. The downstream demand for polyaluminium chloride is also stable.

Industry: In late last month, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “stop-production notice” recently. The notice requests that according to the analysis of the environmental pollution situation and the future polluted weather situation in the city, the municipal attack and fortification office requires all the deep treatment enterprises to stop production and control before acceptance, and set up according to the attack and fortification. Production can be resumed after dispatch or acceptance. This week, local manufacturers said they were allowed to resume production for 10 days and asked to stop production again from the 15th.

Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown (see below):

Future forecast: In the near future, the downstream demand of polyaluminium chloride is still relatively stable, the price of hydrochloric acid in the upstream is stable, and the production of polyaluminium chloride is stopped again after the resumption of production. The price of polyaluminium chloride of the discontinued manufacturers has increased greatly. In the future, such manufacturers still rely on inventory and pricing of the resumption time, and continue to pay close attention to the environmental impact.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic butadiene market was tidied up narrowly. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 9667 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 10,000 yuan/ton at the weekend, 0.33% increase in the week, 5.13% maximum amplitude in the week, 17.64% rise in the price cycle, 22.05% decline over the previous year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This week, the domestic butadiene market was weaker. Although Sinopec’s price continued to rise by 200 yuan/ton, the price of northern export manufacturers fell to about 9000 yuan/ton. Due to the weak trend of the downstream synthetic rubber market, the high butadiene level has led to the prominent cost pressure of manufacturers. In the week, the butadiene-styrene and cis-butadiene rubber industry started to go down to a certain extent. In addition, the latex industry just needs to support weak, and the overall demand for butadiene weakened. Recently, northern manufacturers export normally, and a small amount of Fushun Petrochemical supply, the market supply increased slightly, weak supply and demand dragged most of the nodal manufacturers on Thursday, aggravating the market downturn. In terms of price, Shandong’s top-grade products are delivered at a price reference of 9700-9800 yuan/ton, a drop of 600 yuan/ton annually, while East China’s deliveries at a price reference of 10300-10400 yuan/ton, a drop of 200 yuan/ton annually, and the market inquiry atmosphere is depressed.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 # long-term shutdown; 1 # and 2 # total 120,000 tons/year plant normal operation; Zhenhai refinery and chemical 165,000 tons/year plant normal operation, mutual supply is the main, a small amount of export; Liaotong Petrochemical 120,000 tons/year butadiene plant normal operation, bidding export trading range 9510-9518 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, and there is no export for the time being. The 100,000-ton/year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Silbang, Jiangsu, stopped on July 29 and plans to restart.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, only CNOOC Northeast sales of styrene-butadiene rubber prices down, domestic styrene-butadiene rubber factory prices as a whole stable, dry rubber 1502 billing price 10600-10700 yuan/ton, stable than last period; styrene-butadiene rubber 1712 billing price 9600-9750 yuan/ton, stable than last period. Market prices fell, Qilu 1502E quoted near 10,600 yuan/ton, 300 yuan/ton lower than last week; Qilu 1712 quoted at 9,650 yuan/ton; Qilu 1712 quoted 250 yuan/ton lower than last week.
Cis-butadiene rubber: This week, the domestic mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis-butadiene rubber is stable; the domestic mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis-butadiene rubber is stable in the range of 10600-10800 yuan/ton; only CNOOC Northeast Sales Company returns to the mainstream price and adjusts it. Mainstream offer prices fell to the range of 10800-11100 yuan/ton, which is different from last week’s decline of 100-400 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external market is high, Sinopec’s price is rising and its supply is limited. On the negative side, the overall decline of the cis-butadiene rubber industry led to a negative downstream mentality. Although Sinopec and external prices are high, and the market is difficult to replenish shipments, which supports some businesses’mentality, the short-term northern export manufacturers’ business is not smooth, dragging down the supply price, the initial decline of the market, downstream wait-and-see mentality is more obvious. At the same time, with the restart of Sirbang Petrochemical Plant and the steady operation of Nanjing Chengzhi, the overall market supply is expected to increase significantly. Business analysts expect that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline weakly next week. It is suggested that attention be paid to supplier prices and transaction conditions.

Commodity Index: On August 9, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 100.41, which was the same as yesterday. It was 6.27% lower than the peak of 107.13 points in the cycle (2019-05-08), and 4.90% higher than the low of 95.72 points on April 10, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: According to the monitoring data of business association (100ppi.com), on August 1, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cationic) market was about 16466.67 yuan/ton, and on the 9th, 16433.33 yuan/ton. This week, the market showed a slight downward trend. At present, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyacrylamide is: cationic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 16200-18100 yuan/ton, anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 10000-12100 yuan/ton. In late last month, some markets were affected by the notice of environmental shutdown. Some manufacturers in Gongyi City stopped production. Some manufacturers had sufficient supply of goods. Some manufacturers reported that prices would rise in the future. However, the market outside Henan was not affected much. On the premise of stable downstream demand, prices fell somewhat this week.

Industry chain: It is known that the price of acrylonitrile in the upstream is about 11750 yuan/ton on the 5th day of this week, and 12000 yuan/ton on the 9th day, with a weekly increase of about 2.13%. The downstream demand has not changed much. It is understood that the current production of polyacrylamide manufacturers is normal, this week the upstream and downstream has little impact on it.

Industry: On July 26, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “stop-production notice”. The notice requests that according to the analysis of the environmental pollution situation and the future polluted weather situation in the whole city, the city attack and fortification office require all the deep treatment enterprises to stop production and control before acceptance, and dispatch or control according to fortification or fortification. After acceptance, it can be returned to production. Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown management (see below): ___________.

Future Market Forecast: At present, there is no market expectation that some manufacturers in the early stage believe that the price of products will rise frequently and the range is “hard to say” during the shutdown period, and the output of some local manufacturers is not affected. Some of the major quotation companies currently monitored by business associations are in normal start-up and good supply. They continue to pay attention to the follow-up market changes under environmental protection requirements.

1. Melamine price trend:

According to the data of business associations, as of August 9, the market price of melamine had been lowered. At present, the mainstream price of melamine in China is 5400-6000 yuan/ton, which is 3.12% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Melamine market price down. At present, the downstream demand of some production enterprises has not been substantially improved, the market lacks strong favorable factors to support, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere of the melamine market remains unchanged. At present, the market reference price of melamine in Xinjiang is around 5200 yuan/ton, that in Sichuan is around 5500 yuan/ton, and that in Henan is around 5700 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The upstream urea market has fallen again and again in recent March. On May 1, 2019, the average price quoted by the main urea producers in Shandong Province was 230.00 yuan/ton, while on August 9, the average price quoted by urea producers was 1868.33 yuan/ton, down 161.67 yuan/ton, or 7.96%.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 31 st week of 2019 (8.5-8.9), there were 16 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (12.69%), acetic anhydride (10.50%) and butadiene (4.20%). There are 36 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-22.73%), sulfur (-5.81%) and propylene (-4.45%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.41%.

3. Future market forecast:

Melamine analysts believe that the fall of urea upstream, the cost of melamine negative, downstream demand is weak, the overall trading climate is weak, it is expected that in the short term, the market of melamine will be mainly weak operation, more attention still needs to be paid to the start-up rate of production enterprises.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market price of ammonium sulfate dropped this month. The average price of domestic ammonium sulfate at the beginning of this month was 720 yuan/ton, and the average price of ammonium sulfate at the end of this month was 660 yuan/ton, down by 8.33%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is quoted at 550-740 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Northeast is quoted at 650 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Henan is quoted at 600-700 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is quoted at 600-660 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Shanxi is quoted at 550-600 yuan/ton. The mainstream ammonium sulfate factory quotation in East China is about 700 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price of domestic sulphuric acid Market in the upstream has been slightly lowered. After adjustment, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired, the production capacity has risen, and the price has been slightly lowered in the case of upstream and downstream game. The downstream compound fertilizer market is flat, and the start-up rate has increased slightly. Environmental protection efforts have been strengthened in some areas, and compound fertilizer enterprises have been actively engaged in production to prevent production restrictions.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current off-season ammonium sulfate market demand is limited, downstream cautious wait-and-see, prices at a low pull up difficult. The weak market of coking grade was consolidated, the environmental protection production restriction was intensified, and the downstream demand was sluggish, which led to the decline of the market. Lactam-grade prices are strong, mainstream exports, supply is tight. It is expected that the ammonium sulfate Market will continue to consolidate its downturn in the later period, and prices will remain weak and stable or fall.

According to the statistics of the Chinese Customs, from January to June 2019, China exported 12.61 million tons of fertilizers, of which 2.04 million tons of fertilizers, 16.8 million tons of potassium chloride, 58.2 million tons of potassium sulfate and 0.87 million tons of potassium nitrate were exported in June.

From January to June 2019, China imported 5.434 million tons of other potassium chloride (except pure potassium chloride) and 27.6 million tons of potassium sulfate. In June alone, 609,000 tons of other potassium chloride and 67,000 tons of potassium sulfate were imported.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of business associations, this week (7.22-7.26) domestic cis-butadiene rubber prices rose slightly, at the beginning of the week at 10,450 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week at 10,512 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.6%.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: This week (7.22-7.26) domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical factory ex-factory price is stable, as of July 26, Daqing Petrochemical cis-butadiene rubber ex-factory price 10400 yuan/ton.

Rubber import and export: In June 2019, China imported 441,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, and 307.6 tons in January-June. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 7.7%.

Raw materials: raw material butadiene prices rose sharply this week, the cost of cis-butadiene rubber support. Butadiene was 8,545 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8,890 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 4.04% as a whole, according to the business association.

Supply: According to statistics, in June 2019, the domestic production of synthetic rubber was 506,000 tons, up 12.7% year-on-year; in January-June, the domestic production of synthetic rubber was 2.904 million tons, up 4.3% year-on-year.

Demand: According to statistics, in June 2019, the domestic rubber tyre tyre output was 70.279 million, down 2.45% annually, up 3.2% year-on-year; in January-June, the domestic rubber tyre output was 403.745 million, down 1.0% year-on-year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that at present, on the one hand, the rising price of crude oil butadiene in the upstream supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber, on the other hand, the ring ratio of tire production in the downstream rubber market is decreasing, which creates a negative atmosphere for cis-butadiene rubber. Later look at the cis-butadiene rubber market will form a turbulent situation.