I. price trend:
According to the data monitoring of the business association, in October, the price of Sinopec orthobenzene fell from the high level, and the price fell continuously. As of October 31, the executed contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6500.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 400 yuan / ton or 5.80% compared with the price of 6900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1). Compared with the same period last year, the price fell by 18.75%. The price of o-benzene fell continuously, and the market of o-benzene was obviously weak.
II. Market analysis:
Product analysis
Commodity name, quotation type, port, 10.25 price, 10.18 price, 10.11 price, 10.4 price, unit
O-xylene CFR China 765.00 780.00 800.00 805.00 USD / ton
O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 795.00 815.00 835.00 855.00 USD / ton
O-xylene FOB South Korea 755.00 775.00 795.00 805.00 USD / ton
O-xylene FOB Rotterdam 865.00 865.00 860.00 860.00 USD / ton
© October 2019 business club www.100ppi.com
In October, the external quotation of orthobenzene fell in shock, while the external quotation of China fell by 40 USD / ton. The prices of benzene in Southeast Asia fell by $60 / T, while those in South Korea fell by $50 / T. The external quotation of o-benzene fell sharply, the price of imported o-benzene fell, the price of port o-benzene followed the decline, the port inventory recovered but was still relatively low, and the future o-benzene market was under great negative pressure. Sinopec’s listing price of ortho benzene in East China is 7500 yuan / ton, and the price dropped 400 yuan / ton in October. The operating rate of the Yangtze ortho benzene equipment is about 80%. The supply of ortho xylene is temporarily stable, the demand enthusiasm of the downstream of ortho benzene is poor, the purchasing power of ortho benzene is insufficient, and the favorable power of the future ortho benzene market is insufficient, with a large downward pressure.
| potassium persulphate |
Factor analysis of industrial chain
In October, the price of mixed xylene continued to fall sharply, with a drop of 15.52% in October. The sharp drop in the price of raw materials has a significant negative impact on the market of o-benzene, the cost of o-benzene has dropped significantly, the market of o-benzene has a large negative impact, and the price of o-benzene in the future has a large downward pressure. The overall cost of o-benzene has decreased, and the negative pressure of o-benzene is greater in the future. As can be seen in the figure, the price of mixed xylene tends to be stable at the end of October, the cost of o-benzene keeps stable, the downward pressure of o-benzene market weakens, and the overall o-benzene market in the future looks weak.
In October, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, but the decline gradually slowed down, but the decline trend of phthalic anhydride at the end of the month tended to be balanced. In October, the demand in the downstream of phthalic acid was insufficient, and the rising momentum was insufficient, so the market was negative. In terms of plasticizers, DOP market fell in October, with a large downward pressure in the aftermarket. However, with the gradual stabilization and slow recovery of plasticizer Market, the downward pressure in the aftermarket of o-benzene weakened, the negative situation in the downstream market of o-benzene eased, the upward momentum of o-benzene was still insufficient, and the downward pressure weakened.
3. Future forecast:
According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, in October, the price of o-xylene raw material mixed with xylene fell sharply, the cost of o-xylene fell, and the pressure of o-benzene market fell sharply, but the price of mixed xylene gradually stabilized at the end of October, and the pressure of o-benzene market fell weakened; in terms of demand, the market of phthalic anhydride fell sharply, but the decline slowed down, the market of phthalic anhydride tended to be stable and plasticized After the sharp fluctuation of agent price, the price remained stable, the downstream demand was insufficient, and the growth momentum of ortho benzene was insufficient. However, with the gradual stability of the downstream market, the downward pressure of ortho benzene decreased, and the future ortho benzene market became stable. In the external market, the external price of ortho benzene fell sharply in October, and the port inventory increased but remained at a low level, which was bad for the domestic ortho benzene market but relieved. To sum up, the upstream and downstream market of o-xylene industry chain fell in October, which led to the decline of o-xylene price. However, with the gradual stability of the upstream and downstream market, the downward pressure of o-xylene market gradually weakened, and the upward momentum is still insufficient. The overall o-xylene market is more negative than positive, and it is expected that the weakness of o-xylene in the future will maintain stability.
The future market should focus on: o-benzene cost, downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer Market. Attention can be paid to: the external plate of o-benzene.
| ammonium persulfate |