I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic factory price of R134a continued to decline in October. As of the end of the month (25th), the price was 23833.33 yuan / ton, 2.05% lower than that of 24333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (1st), and 18.75% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: R134a market of refrigerant market is weak and stable this month, with the actual transaction price slightly down. The upstream hydrofluoric acid market is weak, which has insufficient support for the cost side of refrigerant. At present, the macro economy is in a downward trend, the production and marketing of major manufacturers in the terminal and air conditioning industry are in a dilemma, the purchasing power of the automobile industry is declining, and the demand for refrigerant R134a is limited. In addition, the newly increased production capacity in the industry may be released in the near future, the manufacturer’s mentality is negative, and it is prudent to wait and see, the unit starts at a low level, so the market situation is difficult to improve. As of October 25, R134a of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. has quoted 26000 yuan / ton, R134a of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 22500 yuan / ton, R134a of Zhejiang lengwang science and Technology Co., Ltd. has quoted 23000 yuan / ton, R134a of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 24000 yuan / ton, R134a of Longxun trade has quoted 23500 yuan / ton, R134a of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 25000 yuan / ton, R134a of blue planet has quoted 25000 yuan / ton, and the price is concentrated at 22500 yuan./ Tons – about 26000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of upstream products in domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fallen sharply, the operation of domestic hydrofluoric acid plant is stable, the supply of goods in the site is sufficient, the situation of goods in hydrofluoric acid market is not good, and the market price keeps falling. The output of the downstream major air conditioning manufacturers and the automobile industry is flat, and the demand for refrigerant R134a is not high, so there is no good support.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 42nd week of 2019 (10.21-10.25), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are epichlorohydrin (8.05%), sulfur (5.05%) and sulfuric acid (4.88%). There are 41 kinds of commodities decreased on a month-on-month basis, 4 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were formaldehyde (37%) (- 9.21%), nitric acid (- 8.62%), acetic acid (- 5.29%). This week’s average was – 0.85%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business agency, at present, the refrigerant R134a domestic market is weak, the transaction environment continues to be depressed, and the export market is still very flat. In addition, the newly added capacity in the industry may be released in the near future, and the manufacturer’s mentality is negative. It is expected that the R134a market will remain weak in the short term.