Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the ex-factory price of octanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of octanol mainstream ex-factory quotation in Shandong fell from 7783.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7733.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.64%, 17.02% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell slightly this week, with the octanol commodity index of 57.11 on September 27.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

At present, the domestic octanol plant start-up rate is still acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng 80,000 tons/year octanol plant start-up normal, this week’s offer is firm; Jiangsu Huachang chemical octanol plant annual capacity 80,000 tons, no maintenance plan.

This week, the quotation of Shandong main octanol producers fell slightly: Hualu Hengsheng’s octanol quotation for this weekend was 7800 yuan/ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Jianlan Chemical Company’s octanol quotation for this weekend was 7800 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation was temporarily stable; Lihua Yi’s octanol quotation for this weekend was 7600 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation fell by 15%. 0 yuan / ton.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material market: Propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 7861.62 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7842.38 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.24%, 20.36% compared with the same period last year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market has fallen slightly, which is affected by supply and demand, and has a negative impact on octanol price.

Downstream market: DOP ex-factory prices fell slightly this week. DOP quotation fell from 7966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7950.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.21%, down 15.72% from the same period last year. The downstream customers’enthusiasm for octanol purchasing declined, and the demand for octanol was general. The decline of DOP price had a negative effect on the octanol market. Future traders are more likely to watch the trend of DOP.

3. Future Market Forecast

The octanol market in Shandong rose in early October. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. As the National Day holidays are approaching, environmental protection and transportation inspection are strict, the price of propylene in the upstream is falling, and the cost support is weak. At the same time, the downstream market is also falling. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. At present, octanol stocks in Shandong are low, shipments are tight, high-end declines, and low-end bottom touching can be controlled as a whole. Octanol analysts believe that after the National Day, the octanol market in Shandong Province has been affected by supply and demand, raw materials and other factors, and the octanol market has risen or shocked.

Price Trend

The price of chlorinated paraffins in China remained stable this week, according to business association monitoring data. On September 23, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products was 5200 yuan/ton, and on September 27, domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products was 5200 yuan/ton. The price remained stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the ex-factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in South China is 4600-5300 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in North China is 4000-5500 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in East China is about 5000 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in Central China is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton, and that of Northeast China is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I product is 5000-5500 yuan/ton. The quotation for the first grade chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton. The northwest region chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class product ex-factory quotation is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton.

Crude oil: On September 26, WTI futures fell $0.08 per barrel at $56.41 in November 2019 and Brent futures rose $0.35 per barrel at $62.74 in November 2019. China’s SC crude oil futures main contract was about 1911 yuan 449.3 yuan per barrel, down 8.9 yuan.

Industry chain: The crude oil market rose first and then fell this week. The liquid wax market is mainly stable, and some manufacturers have made minor adjustments. The price of liquid chlorine market is stable and range fluctuation. Near the National Day, downstream enterprises mostly wait-and-see.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in the business association believe that this week’s chlorinated paraffin trading is flat and the overall operation is stable. It is expected that the latter stage of chlorinated paraffin cross-disc finishing will be dominated.

Price Trend

Taking rutile titanium dioxide with sulphuric acid process as an example, which has a large domestic market, according to the data of a large number of business associations, the price of titanium dioxide is stable this week, with an average price of 15500 yuan/ton.

On September 19, the commodity index of titanium dioxide was 73.59, which was the same as yesterday. It was 26.41% lower than the 100.00 point in the cycle (2011-09-04), and 42.40% higher than the 51.68 point on December 29, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the market of titanium dioxide is stable. Titanium dioxide has experienced two increases since August, and the price of titanium dioxide is basically stable. At present, the main quotation of domestic sulfuric acid rutile type is 1450-16500 yuan/ton, and the main quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is 12800-13300 yuan/ton (including tax). The mainstream price of domestic and imported chlorinated rutile titanium dioxide is 17500-20000 yuan/ton and 24800-26800 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price of titanium concentrate in Panxi has risen slightly this week. Imports of titanium ore remain tense, high prices, to a certain extent, to support the climbing profits. The price of 38 titanium ore without tax is about 750 yuan/ton, and the price of 46,10 titanium ore without tax is between 1180 yuan/ton and 1200 yuan/ton. The price of 47 and 20 mines is about 1250 yuan / ton. The price of domestic titanium ore is rising, and the cost of titanium dioxide manufacturers is high. At present, the market price of titanium dioxide will remain stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts believe that: domestic titanium ore prices go up, the market price of titanium dioxide, after two consecutive increases, prices will remain stable, the National Day arrival, downstream more began to stock up, the market has been good in the near future, the actual transaction price is still dominated by a single agreement.

First, the trend of the market:

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The price at the end of the weekend is 7175 yuan/ton, which is 3.24% higher than the price at the beginning of the week of 6950 yuan/ton, and 5.59% lower than the same period last year. About 7100-7200 yuan/ton of o-phthalic anhydride in Shandong and 7200-7400 yuan/ton of phthalic anhydride in Jiangsu are the mainstream of phthalic anhydride negotiations. The spot supply of the market is tight. The naphthalene phthalic anhydride plant starts normally, and the current quotation is 6800-6900 yuan/ton. Recently, the market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. Recently, due to the shortage of raw materials, the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply. The market opening rate of phthalic anhydride has fallen to 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight. Some manufacturers reflect that there is no stock, there are more orders, and the market is selling well. The price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising. Neighborhood method supply negotiation mainstream is 7100-7300 yuan/ton, naphthalene method supply negotiation mainstream is 6800-6900 yuan/ton; Phthalic anhydride market mainstream quotation in North China is 7100-7200 yuan/ton, market prices continue to rise, the quotations of enterprises in North China are rising, downstream construction is normal, purchasing on demand is dominant, there is still a wait-and-see mentality, domestic phthalic anhydride plant transportation. The market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. Recently, the supply of phthalic anhydride on the market is tight, and the price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise.

Upstream: In the near future, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec has risen to 6700 yuan/ton, the import price of phthalic anhydride has risen, the quotation has risen, the recent market of port phthalic anhydride has risen, some enterprises have quoted more than 7500 yuan/ton, the stock of port has declined, and the quotation of phthalic acid has risen concussively. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiati The upstream price trend is good for domestic phthalic anhydride market price, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply.

Downstream: The price of DOP in the downstream has risen recently. The domestic market price of DOP is 7966.67 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride for DOP raw materials has risen sharply. The price of isooctanol has been stable and the cost of DOP has risen. DOP price shocks rise, DOP downstream shocks maintain stability, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks rise, DOP market mainstream transaction price around 8050-8250 yuan/ton, for upstream phthalic anhydride demand has increased, phthalic anhydride market prices are well supported by higher.

Industry: Recently, the market of plasticizer industry has improved, the demand of downstream terminal has increased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market continues to rise.

3. Future market forecast:

At present, the price trend of upstream phthalic anhydride is rising, the terminal demand is increasing, affected by cost support, and the supply of phthalic anhydride on the market is tight. The phthalic anhydride analysts of business association believe that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to rise, and the price will be around 7300 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitoring by business associations, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong continued to fall this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 2400 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was about 2300 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 4.17%.

II. Cause Analysis

Product Reasons: This week, chloroform enterprises in Shandong started normal work, the supply of the industry is stable, the downstream refrigerant industry is in the off-season, the demand for trichloromethane price is not good, combined with the lack of reserve intention of traders before the festival, the trichloromethane market continues to decline. At present, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong is about 2300 yuan/ton; that in Jiangsu is about 3800 yuan/ton; and that in Liwen, Jiangxi is about 2850 yuan/ton. In terms of plant start-up, Jinling in Shandong Province started normal construction, 60% of chemical industry in Western Shandong Province, Jiangsu Science and Culture Plant started normal construction, and 60% of Jiangxi Science and Culture Plant started construction.

Industry Chain: Upstream, the domestic methanol market is affected by the soaring crude oil and futures boost. It has risen by 3.91% in a week and is currently around 2180 yuan/ton. The overall start of the liquid chlorine market is not high, and the trade in the industry is still acceptable. At present, more than 500-700 yuan/ton is reported by enterprises, and the market is likely to decline in the future. On the downstream side, the domestic refrigerant market has started relatively, but the overall supply is abundant, and the after-sales market is just in poor demand. Now the company offers R22 bulk water 14000-17000 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that the current market for trichloromethane has just been in poor demand, affected by the National Day, logistics and transportation constraints in North China affect enterprise shipments, TRADERS’stock intention is not high, and anticipate a short-term decline in the volatility of the trichloromethane market.

Price trends:

On September 20, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 62.91, unchanged from yesterday, down 38.33% from the peak of 102.01 points in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 41.18% from the low of 44.56 points on August 31, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2013-12-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic hydrobenzene market rose this week (9.12-9.20). The average domestic market price was 5 466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5 700 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 4.27%.

Domestic market: Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident, crude oil rose sharply, pure benzene external market rose sharply, FOB Korea closed up 41.5 U.S. dollars/ton, closing at 734-736 U.S. dollars/ton, CFR China rose 28.5 U.S. dollars/ton, closing at 739-741 U.S. dollars/ton. The hydrobenzene market was driven higher, with the manufacturers’offer rising by 150-200 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the overall start-up rate of the unit this week was about 50%. The price difference between crude benzene and hydrobenzene was reduced. The profit is reduced, so the manufacturer’s willingness to ship is low. Downstream units such as styrene and phenol start up relatively high, stock sentiment is relatively strong, and the price of hydrobenzene is better supported. As of Friday, the hydrobenzene market in Shandong Province ranged from 5650 to 5800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 5725 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: Saudi Arabia’s largest crude oil facility was attacked by drones last Saturday, resulting in more than 5 million barrels a day of suspension of crude oil production capacity, which affected Monday’s international oil price rise by more than 10%. In response to the incident, Saudi Arabia said it would use its stockpiles to ensure that crude oil exports were not affected, restore oil supply to pre-attack levels at the end of September, and oil prices fell sharply. Brent rose 4.59% and WTI rose 4.23% from last week. Pure benzene: Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident last Saturday, the price of pure benzene in the outer market rose sharply at the beginning of the week, which led to a bullish domestic market. In the latter half of the week, oil prices and external markets both fell, and the market attitude was cautious.

3. Trend forecast:

Crude oil and pure benzene will remain at a high level in the short term. In addition, near the downstream of National Day, the hydrobenzene market is good and concentrated, and there is still a good price space in the future.

Price Trend

The price of EPS is rising, and the market trend is generally rising steadily. Businessmen mostly ship goods according to their own conditions, and the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to take orders has improved, but still mainly small single replenishment warehouse.

II. Market Analysis

EPS market quotation: EPS market price is stable as a whole, Wuxi Xingda EPS ex-factory price, common material quotation is 10500 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of Dongying Hairong EPS is 10500 yuan/ton for common materials. Jiangyin Hupao EPS ex-factory price, common material quoted 10500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

EPS is currently active in downstream transactions, but the enthusiasm for improvement in inventory is limited. Demand maintenance strategy is just needed. It is expected that in the near future, EPS will mainly focus on narrow-band consolidation.

I. Trend of spot copper price

As shown in the chart above, domestic copper prices fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic spot copper price was 46621.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 47576.67 yuan/ton, up 2.05%, down 0.86% from the same period last year.

II. Copper Current Statement

As shown in the chart above, this week’s main contract price of copper is similar to the spot price trend, both falling first and then rising, but the main contract price is still lower than the spot price, indicating that people are not so optimistic about copper price expectations for the next two months.

New capacity meets the year of overhaul for copper enterprises

During the period of 2018-2019, domestic copper enterprises increased production capacity by nearly 2.47 million tons, and put into operation exceeded expectations, which led to a rebound of supply pressure in the copper market; however, in 2019, when copper enterprises overhauled, the output of copper enterprises in the first half of this year was significantly lower than expected. From January to July 2019, domestic copper refining output totaled 5.713 million tons, down 2.3% from last year. The output showed a downward trend, and since June, copper production began to rise slowly.

Detailed Statistics of New Capacity Increased by Domestic Copper Enterprises in 2018
Detailed Statistics of New Capacity Increased by Domestic Copper Enterprises in 2019
Depression in copper consumption market

Four major consumer industries in the domestic copper industry are power grid investment, household appliances, automobiles and real estate.

Real estate: From January to July 2019, the average sales value of TOP 100 real estate enterprises reached 63.67 billion yuan, and the number of real estate enterprises with a scale of over 100 billion yuan increased to 15. At the same time, data show that in the first July of this year, TOP 100 real estate enterprises’cumulative performance growth rate was about 4% year-on-year, and the overall growth rate of the industry scale slowed down significantly compared with 2018.

Household appliances: From January to June 2019, the cumulative domestic air-conditioning production was 118,833,000 units, an increase of 7.81% year-on-year; last year, the cumulative growth of 14.4% year-on-year; obviously, this year’s air-conditioning growth rate has declined significantly.

Automobile market: The domestic automobile consumption has declined significantly this year, which is an absolute decline; the cumulative automobile output from January to June 2019 is 12.138 million, which is 15.12% lower than the same period last year; the decline trend of traditional automobiles is obvious.

Power grid: Although the overall plan for power grid construction increased year-on-year.

In summary, copper analysts from the Nonferrous Branch of the Business Association believe that copper has been in a low volatility since the end of May this year. On the one hand, copper production has rebounded since June. On the other hand, the overall consumption of this year is low. Apart from the 5G support of the power grid, other three areas are household appliances, real estate and automobiles. Decline to varying degrees. Copper has risen slightly in the past two days, mainly due to the improvement of Jinjiu consumption expectations, which supported the rise in copper prices. Now is the peak consumption season, copper price shocks are expected to be strong.

Price Trend

Aniline prices have remained stable this week compared with last week, according to business associations’big list data. The mainstream price in Shandong is 6000 yuan/ton, while that in Nanjing is 6300 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China fell again, and the supply of market resources was on the tight side, which formed a favorable support for the price of pure benzene. The weak external support at the beginning of the week led to a cautious attitude in the domestic market. Following the rise of international oil price, the price of pure benzene on the outer plate increased. The Asian-American arbitrage window is still open, but the shortage of resources in the early stage has eased, and its influence on the market is limited.

Product: This week’s aniline tender price is higher than last week’s. However, downstream enterprises have been notified of production restriction, the start-up rate has been reduced, and the demand for aniline has been reduced. By offset, aniline prices remained stable this week.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw Material: Domestic pure benzene supply is tight, and Sinopec is expected to increase at present, pure benzene market is expected to remain good next week.

Cost support is strong. If the price of pure benzene continues to rise next week, aniline may follow.

Price Trend

Domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market tumbled in August. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3733.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3730 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.09% in the month, which was 20.79% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In August, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market price fluctuated narrowly and overall downward. As of August 30, the ex-factory price of liquefied gas of Sinopec Guangzhou Branch was 3180 yuan/ton, that of Sinopec Jingmen Branch was 3450 yuan/ton, that of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company was 3310 yuan/ton, that of Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Company was 3390 yuan/ton, and that of Sinopec Shijiazhuang was 3450 yuan/ton. The liquefied gas ex-factory price of refinery branch is 3500 yuan/ton. Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical Liquefied Gas ex-factory price is 3600 yuan/ton.

The narrow adjustment of liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong market) shocks in August is the main factor, and the international crude oil price still has a great impact on the liquefied petroleum gas market this month. In early August, liquefied petroleum gas prices continued to be low, downstream risky mentality into the market was positive, manufacturers shipped more smoothly, inventory pressure, and then pushed up. However, limited by the decline in international crude oil, the increase is not significant. In mid-August, the typhoon affected the production and transportation of the manufacturers, blocked shipment for several days in a row, and prices fell. Subsequently, the weather gradually weakened, shipments returned to normal, inventory was eased, and international crude oil pushed the market higher. But shipments have improved for a short time, although the traditional sales season is approaching, but demand is limited, coupled with the expected fall in September CP, downstream bearish on the future market, the enthusiasm for entering the market has faded. The shipment of the manufacturer returned to flat again, and the price fell again at the end of August. Until September CP was introduced, propane had fallen but less than expected, alleviating the market mentality and rising prices slightly.

Industry chain:

Graph.100ppi.com (500 x 300)

The domestic dimethyl ether market continued to decline in August. At the beginning of August, the profit of dimethyl ether Market was relatively high. Some manufacturers started driving and the market supply increased, but the terminal demand was slow, the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent, and the price fell mainly. In mid-August, in order to avoid the continuous downward price, Henan Xinlian implemented the policy of keeping the bottom price for many times. Although it protected the market price on the side, it still did not alleviate the shipment situation of manufacturers. Inventory accumulated, pressure increased gradually, more profit was given priority to the shipment, and the price was lowered again. Until the end of August, the dimethyl ether Market did not improve substantially, and shipments continued to be cold and weak.

The propane Market as a whole rose slightly in August, mostly due to shocks. At the beginning of this month, CP price was introduced in August, propane slightly fell, which brought bad news to the market. In addition, the international crude oil fell sharply on August 2, which affected the market mentality. The enthusiasm for entering the market downstream was not high, the manufacturers’shipments were not smooth, and the main focus of propane price was to let profits drain away from the warehouse. But in mid-August, with the sustained upward trend of international crude oil, propane market was boosted, downstream market entry enthusiasm improved, manufacturers shipped smoothly, inventory pressure was not high, and prices stopped falling and rebounded. But August is still the traditional off-season of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, coupled with the anticipated fall of CPs in September, the price rise is blocked. Until the end of August, when the CP price was introduced in September, propane dropped slightly compared with last month, but the decline was less than expected. The market mentality was supported and the price rose slightly.

Saudi Amy Corp. announced in September that the price of propane was lowered and the price of butane was flat. Propane was $350 per ton, down by $20 per ton from last month; butane was $360 per ton, flat from last month. The cost of long-term approximate cargo propane converted to onshore is around 3 022 yuan/ton and that of butane 3100 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied gas analysts believe that the traditional sales season is approaching, the market demand for liquefied gas is rising, and the Mid-Autumn Festival is approaching. Inventory replenishment is expected before and after the downstream festival, and prices are expected to stabilize and then rise in September.