1、 Price trend

On December 27, the antimony commodity index was 54.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.77% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 15.94% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: the price of antimony oxide was stable and the transaction was light on Wednesday. As of Friday, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 34000 yuan / ton and 99.8% at 36500 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials: the delivery and investment of mining enterprises are light, some mines are still shut down for maintenance in winter, the price of raw materials is relatively stable, and the overall market is stable.

Domestic market: the market price of antimony ingot is stable this week, and the market is affected by the stock before the festival, so the trading is more active than before. In terms of price, as of Friday, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingots was 37500 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingots was 38000 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingots was 39000 yuan / ton, and the average price of 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots was 35000 yuan / ton.

Nonferrous Industry: closed for Christmas holiday this week, LME has only three trading days, and most of the external market is to reduce positions, while the domestic market keeps moving forward steadily due to the economy, and the Central Bank of China increases the reverse repo operation in the open market, so that the end of the year funds remain abundant, A-share stands at 3000 points, and the basic metals keep a strong momentum of rising under the guidance of copper bulls.

3、 Future prospects

Next week is facing cross year market. On New Year’s day on Wednesday, the domestic and foreign commodity markets are closed. In the first half of the week, the market is cautious in light trading. In the second half of the week, at the beginning of the 2020 new year, the macro environment is still in optimistic mood. However, according to their own fundamental characteristics, each item may increase its position trading in the new year in an orderly manner, and the spot market will also open a new page in 2020.

According to the data detection of the business agency, although the cobalt Market in 2019 is not as hot as it was in 2017 and 2018, it is still a big rise and fall. Generally speaking, the price trend of cobalt Market in 2019 shows such a trend, which is mainly determined by two major events in 2019.

1、 Subsidy decline

In 2019, the main vocabulary of new energy vehicle market is subsidy decline. On the afternoon of March 26, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the development and Reform Commission jointly issued the notice on further improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the “notice”). The main contents of the notice include: 1. The maximum subsidy of pure electric passenger vehicles is only 25000 yuan after the decline, which is 50% less than that in 2018. 2. After the transition period, the local subsidy for new energy vehicles will be directly cancelled (except for new energy buses and fuel cell vehicles). 3. No subsidy will be given for electric vehicles with a endurance of less than 250km. The transition period is from March 26 to June 25, 2019. The official release of the notice marks a comma for the speculation on the subsidy policy since 2018, and also marks a pause in the production and sales of new energy vehicles.

After the transition period of subsidy, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2019 have fallen for five consecutive months on a year-on-year basis since July. According to the data of China Automobile Association, from July to September this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 80000, 85000 and 80000 respectively, down 4.7%, 15.8% and 34.2% year-on-year respectively; by October and November, the sales volume was 75000 and 72000 respectively, and the year-on-year decline rate even expanded to more than 45%. The sharp decline of new energy vehicle production and sales is bad for the cobalt market. The demand for cobalt in the future market is expected to decline, and the cobalt market is bad.

2、 Glencore cobalt stoppage

Mutanda is a large copper and cobalt mine owned by Glencore in the DRC. In 2018, mutanda produced 190000 tons of copper and 27300 tons of cobalt, respectively accounting for 0.9% and 20.8% of the global supply, making it the largest cobalt mine in the world. In the first half of 2019, mutanda produced 13400 tons of cobalt, up + 13.6% year on year. In August 2019, Glencore announced that it would close the cobalt mine at the end of 2019 and enter a two-year maintenance period due to the rapid drop in the price of battery metal materials and the increase in project cost. On November 26, Glencore announced that the mutanda copper and cobalt mine had entered the maintenance period ahead of time, so that the shutdown of Glencore copper and cobalt mine was officially realized. Glencore’s production of cobalt ore stopped, and the supply of cobalt in the aftermarket dropped significantly, and the market of cobalt in the aftermarket was good.

3、 Summary and future forecast

The sharp decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles has led to the slowdown in the development of new energy vehicles, the bearish rise in demand for cobalt in the future market, and the accumulation of water in the early cobalt price, all of which are the reasons for the sharp drop in the price of cobalt in 2019. But the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles is absolutely the most important and key fuse among many reasons. Glencore’s discontinuation of cobalt production is a shot in the arm of the cobalt market. The rebound in cobalt prices since August was stimulated by this news. However, with the passage of time, the decline rate of new energy vehicle sales is far faster than the market expectation. The demand of cobalt market is not optimistic, and the rebound of cobalt price begins to decline. At the same time, due to the increase of cobalt cost, the decline rate of cobalt price is relatively small, and the cobalt price remains at a relatively high level until the shutdown of Glencore cobalt mine is realized. After Glencore stopped production, the price of cobalt rose for a time, but due to the close of the year, cobalt enterprises in order to ease the financial pressure, low-cost shipments occurred, which made it difficult for cobalt prices to rebound substantially. When the time comes to 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will gradually stabilize, 5g mobile phones may usher in a wave of replacement, and the demand for cobalt in the future market is expected to increase; in terms of supply, Glencore cobalt production will be stopped and realized, the supply of cobalt will be reduced, and the supply-demand relationship of cobalt will be changed to some extent. 2020 is expected to be a year of stable development of cobalt, and the price of cobalt is expected to rise. At the same time, the investment is cautious and With the decrease of market liquidity, it is difficult for the cobalt market to reproduce the soaring market in the past 17 years. Overall, the market of cobalt in 2020 is expected to rise steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, after last week’s big rise, the price of glycol fell in shock this week. On December 20, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 5500 yuan / ton, down 0.9% from last week, slightly down.

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 5375 yuan / ton. After one week’s adjustment, the price on Friday was 5390 yuan / ton, down 4.6% from last weekend.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of December 18, the comprehensive daily operation rate of glycol unit is 66.14%, up 1.69%; among them, the operation rate of non coal unit is 63.01%, up 2.06%; the operation rate of coal unit is 70.56%, up 1.17%.

On December 18, 400000 tons of ethylene glycol project of Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. and a 90000 tons of ethylene glycol line of 1.8 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. were put into operation successively; on December 20, the ethylene link of 750000 tons of ethylene glycol project of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was put into operation, and the output is expected to be 24 days.

As of Thursday, ethylene glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 302000 tons, an increase of 9500 tons from Monday. Including 149000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 60000 tons in Ningbo, 15000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu, and 35000 tons in Taicang.

According to the news, between December 19 and December 25, the main port of East China is expected to deliver 229000 tons, Zhangjiagang port is expected to deliver 100000 tons, Taicang port is expected to deliver 36000 tons and Ningbo port is expected to deliver 30000 tons.

In the downstream, the polyester starting load is 86.15%, which is stable compared with last week. The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 70%, and the link ratio drops about 3 points. The overall profit of polyester filament is in the middle and lower level.

3、 Future forecast

Glycol analysts believe that after last week’s inventory reduction caused by a sharp rise, glycol prices are currently at a recent high, there is room for a correction. This week’s port shipment is general, and the arrival is still delayed. The following week’s shipment arrives at the port as scheduled, and the accumulated warehouse will be inevitable. In addition, due to the simultaneous feeding of three new units, the output will increase significantly if there is no accident. The downstream polyester Market released the production reduction plan before and after the Spring Festival. At present, the unit operation rate has declined slightly. Based on the above factors, it is expected that the price of glycol will continue to fluctuate and fall in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of December 20, the domestic market price of n-propanol remained stable. At present, the main quotation of domestic n-propanol is around 9100-11400 yuan / ton, and the price is basically unchanged compared with that at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the overall trend of domestic n-propanol market is relatively stable, and the manufacturer’s operating rate is normal. N-propanol is a widely used chemical product, which can be directly used as a solvent, can also be used for the synthesis of propyl acetate and then used as a solvent, can also be used for the synthesis of n-propylamine, di-propylamine and other agricultural fields, or for the synthesis of various esters in food additives, plasticizers, spices and many other fields On the one hand, it is widely used in coatings, paints, adhesives, cosmetics, plastics and fungicides. It is also an important raw material in many fields, such as food additives, feed additives, synthetic spices, cleaners, preservatives and brake oil. In addition, n-propanol has a very important use in the field of pharmaceutical intermediates. On December 21, the average price of barreled n n-propanol in Taiwan was around 11500-12000 yuan / ton. Shanghai Yilian Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 11600 yuan / ton of n-propanol for outbound (barreled / Dalian, Taiwan); Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Yixing Chemical Trade Co., Ltd. offered 10600 yuan / ton of n-propanol for outbound (barreled / tax included). Dealers all over the country still reserve the price. The price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiations or differences. There are also differences in each region. The actual single negotiation is the main part, and the future market will wait for the change of raw material price and delivery.

Industry chain: the ethylene market is up and down this week. By the end of July 17, the U.S. ethylene market had declined, with FD’s U.S. Gulf quotation of $336-348 / ton, down $16 / ton; the European ethylene market had risen, with FD’s northwest Europe quotation of $852-865 / ton, CIF northwest Europe quotation of $769-778 / ton, up $1 / ton; the Asian ethylene market had risen, with CFR Northeast Asia quotation of $728-734 / ton, up $20 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quotation of $678-684 Yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency: at the end of the year, the market of n-propanol has entered the off-season, and the manufacturer is expected to maintain the stability of the market. It is expected that the market will maintain the stability in the near future, or will fluctuate slightly.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid rose this week. As of the end of the week, the price was 10240 yuan / ton, 1.89% higher than the price of 10050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 29.98% year on year.

Product: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid slightly increased. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers are generally on the way. The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level. The demand for domestic hydrofluoric acid market is limited. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic spot supply is sufficient. However, in the near future, the price of fluorite remains high, and the domestic price trend slightly increases. By the end of the week The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 10000-10500 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has increased slightly. In the near future, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is general, and the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is general. Some manufacturers report that there is a continuous upward trend in the near future. By the end of the week, the mainstream of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian was about 10000-10500 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 9500-10500 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 9500-11000 yuan / ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 9500-10500 yuan / ton, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly.

Industry chain: the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of fluorite is 2883.33 yuan / ton. The supply of fluorite in China is normal, but the price of fluorite has little change. The upstream cost price has a certain impact on the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market. With the decrease of gas temperature, the supply of fluorite in the north will gradually decline. At that time, the price of fluorite may rise. For hydrogen There are some positive expectations for the fluoroacid market. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved, while the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has slightly increased. In the near future, the price trend of the downstream product aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable, at the weekend it is 9000 yuan / ton. This week, the price trend is stable, the downstream market is general, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly higher.

Industry: this week, the upstream raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market spot supply is normal, coupled with the general trading market of the downstream refrigerant industry, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is stable.

In the near future, the operation rate of domestic refrigerant unit has not changed much. For the demand of hydrofluoric acid market, purchase is required, and the spot supply in hydrofluoric acid field is normal. However, in the near future, the supply of raw material market has decreased, and the price of fluorite has been supported to some extent. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in business association, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will rise slightly next week.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market in the first half of December was volatile and weak. As of Friday, December 13, some spot prices were lower than the beginning of the month. The main offer price of T30S from domestic producers and traders is about 8133.33 yuan / ton, down 2.01% from the beginning of the week.

II. Cause analysis

Upstream: according to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the market price of PP raw material propylene in China has declined continuously in recent years. At the beginning of December, affected by the international crude oil “Black Friday” market, the price began to decline all the way. In the near future, due to the impact of heavy fog in Shandong Province, the logistics is not smooth, and the external supply is blocked, which supports the propylene market. On the outside, US polymer grade propylene spot price fell to the lowest level in more than three years on Thursday, which also had a negative impact on propylene. On the upstream side, the OPEC + meeting delayed and strengthened the production reduction agreement, and the international crude oil rose sharply, which had a positive impact on propylene. The downstream procurement is still good, which has a certain positive impact on propylene. It is expected that the market price of propylene will start to stabilize and recover in recent days.

Product: upstream propylene is weak, and the average operating rate of domestic PP polymerization enterprises this week is about 95.09%, slightly higher than that of last week, and there is no news of shutdown and maintenance device in the near future. It is expected that the operation rate of domestic polypropylene enterprises will be stable next week. In terms of inventory, the total PP inventory of each sales company of two barrels of oil continued to decline slightly, and the inventory of traders also continued to decline. At present, the operation of petrochemical enterprises is still inclined to destocking, the mentality of the operators is short, and the factory price is difficult to go higher. The operation rate of downstream plants increased slightly, but the improvement of PP demand has not yet appeared. Generally speaking, the trading volume is still weak, and the price support is not good. The propylene market price in Shandong continues to decline. In terms of external news, the International Monetary Fund lowered the global economic growth rate to 3% in 2019, the lowest growth rate in 10 years, which hit market confidence.

III. future forecast

According to PP analysts of business club, domestic PP prices fell in the first half of December. The upstream propylene market is weak and the cost end support is limited. There is no centralized purchase for the downstream factories, the confidence of the operators is insufficient, the quotation keeps falling, and the operation is cautious. It is expected that PP market will continue to adjust at a low level in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the change of propylene market at the cost end in the near future.

I. price trend

The overall atmosphere of EPS market operation is not good, the attitude of merchants is flat, the atmosphere of market trading and investment is light, the downstream factories are still dominated by purchase with use, the field is stable for shipment, and the firm offer is negotiated.

II. Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price fell, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, common material quotation is 9100 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Hairong EPS in Dongying is 9100 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9200 yuan / ton for common materials.

III. future forecast

EPS market overall weak operation. Due to the general demand in the downstream market, rigid purchase is the main demand, and the transaction in the spot market is in a stalemate state. Traders tend to be cautious and wait-and-see. EPS market is expected to maintain a stable, medium and narrow range consolidation pattern.

In November, the performance of domestic liquid ammonia market was sluggish, continuing the downward trend of last month, and the price hit a new low. At the end of the month, the price in most parts of the country still showed no sign of stabilizing. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the drop of liquid ammonia Market in Shandong Province reached 5.53%, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was generally 2700-2800 yuan / ton. It is 200-300 yuan / ton lower than last month. The overall market atmosphere is relatively low, and the expectation for the later market is low.

In terms of supply, the overall supply of liquid ammonia Market in November was relatively surplus, and the unit operating rate of enterprises was slightly higher. In Shanxi and Shandong areas, the peak shifting and production limiting, the coming of winter haze, the increasing pressure of environmental protection, and the limited transportation in Wuhan, Hubei Province, lead to the tight supply of liquid ammonia in some areas; while the start-up of other liquid ammonia enterprises is still at a high level, with the full resumption of production of liquid ammonia units in Hubei, the price of liquid ammonia has declined. In addition, in the near future, manufacturers in Anhui Province have maintenance plans. In the next month, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises will be reduced, and the local liquid ammonia market may pick up. However, in the whole country, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is still not optimistic, mainly due to the relative lack of downstream demand. At present, the market is still in a situation of weak supply and demand.

In terms of demand, the demand for liquid ammonia continued to decline in November. First of all, the downstream operating rate remained low, and under the double pressure of environmental protection and safety, the operating rate of some chemical enterprises continued to be low, and the sales progress of compound fertilizer enterprises was slow, the fertilizer procurement entered the market off-season, and the production enthusiasm was not high, especially the situation of small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises stopping production or reducing production was particularly obvious In the aspect of phosphate fertilizer, the demand of phosphate compound fertilizer has entered into the window period of demand, the fertilizer land in winter market has gradually shrunk, some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the demand for liquid ammonia is shrinking. At the same time, Hubei, as a phosphate fertilizer enterprise with 40% capacity, has a large production limit.

In the future, the business community believes that the liquid ammonia market may be difficult to get out of the strong market in the short term, which is mainly affected by the weak demand in most regions, resulting in the overstock of inventory. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of further exploration.

On the 29th, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic liquid ammonia market tends to be stable, with a slight decline in some areas. On the 29th, the drop of liquid ammonia was 0.84% in the week. On the weekend, most of the manufacturers reported a stable decline, some of them were down 50 yuan / ton. Some of the enterprises in the main production area of Shandong Province maintained a stable decline, some of them were down 50 yuan / ton, and the price in the northwest region remained stable. At present, there is a surplus of local ammonia, especially some of the manufacturers in Shandong Province have a relatively wide supply of goods Loose, the pressure of enterprise shipment is increasing, but the price of manufacturers with large ammonia volume is mainly stable, and the main quotation in Shandong is 2750-2850 yuan / ton.

In North China, the liquid ammonia is also slightly lower. The lack of demand leads to the current ammonia storage and price decline. The shipment pressure increases significantly. There are many downstream stoppages. The main quotation in North China is 2800 yuan / ton up and down.

The increasing pressure of environmental protection in Hebei region has led to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises, such as China and Afghanistan, has led to weak demand in the downstream. There are many enterprises accumulating inventory, and the price has not changed significantly. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2770-2850 yuan / ton.

Over the weekend, there was a slight downward trend in Central China, and the delivery pressure in Hubei was obvious. Part of Henan was affected by environmental pressure, and the price gave way to more profits. At present, the liquid ammonia market is full of negative atmosphere, weak operation, and the mainstream quotation in Henan is up and down 2700 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business club believes that the market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of continuing to explore low.

I. trend analysis

In November, the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market fell first and then rose. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in early November was 1100075 yuan / ton, then fell to 10725 yuan / ton, and then rebounded to 11075 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall price at the end of the month was 0.68% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 3.26% higher than the low point at the end of the month.

II. Market analysis

First, in November, the raw material butadiene first fell and then rose, forming a resonance with cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene in early November was 9123 yuan / ton, which fell to 8537 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and 8834 yuan / ton in the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 3.17% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the amplitude at the higher point was 6.42% higher than that at the lower point of the month.

Secondly, according to the business club, the inventory of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber traders continued to decline slightly in November, forming a certain support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the information of the business association, at present, the start-up load of Shunding unit of Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Sichuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is a little lower, and the units of Qilu, Yanshan, Maoming, Daqing and Dushanzi are in normal operation.

Third, the price of natural rubber rose sharply in November, to a certain extent, pulling the rise of synthetic rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of natural rubber at the beginning of the month was 11230 yuan / ton in November, and the peak at the end of the month was 12116 yuan / ton, up 7.89% from the beginning of the month.

Finally, the output of downstream tires declined year-on-year, with a certain demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, but there is still a risk of weakness. According to the business agency, in October 2019, the output of domestic rubber tires was 71.289 million, down 3.28% month on month, up 3.4% year on year; from January to October, the output of domestic rubber tires was 70.325 million, up 2.5% year on year.

III. future prospects

Business analysts believe that although skyrubber is favorable for the rise of synthetic rubber, we still need to be alert to the weakening of downstream demand in the later period, which is a certain negative for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. It is expected that the rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the later period will be limited.