I. trend analysis

In November, the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market fell first and then rose. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in early November was 1100075 yuan / ton, then fell to 10725 yuan / ton, and then rebounded to 11075 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall price at the end of the month was 0.68% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 3.26% higher than the low point at the end of the month.

II. Market analysis

First, in November, the raw material butadiene first fell and then rose, forming a resonance with cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene in early November was 9123 yuan / ton, which fell to 8537 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and 8834 yuan / ton in the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 3.17% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the amplitude at the higher point was 6.42% higher than that at the lower point of the month.

Secondly, according to the business club, the inventory of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber traders continued to decline slightly in November, forming a certain support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the information of the business association, at present, the start-up load of Shunding unit of Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Sichuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is a little lower, and the units of Qilu, Yanshan, Maoming, Daqing and Dushanzi are in normal operation.

Third, the price of natural rubber rose sharply in November, to a certain extent, pulling the rise of synthetic rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of natural rubber at the beginning of the month was 11230 yuan / ton in November, and the peak at the end of the month was 12116 yuan / ton, up 7.89% from the beginning of the month.

Finally, the output of downstream tires declined year-on-year, with a certain demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, but there is still a risk of weakness. According to the business agency, in October 2019, the output of domestic rubber tires was 71.289 million, down 3.28% month on month, up 3.4% year on year; from January to October, the output of domestic rubber tires was 70.325 million, up 2.5% year on year.

III. future prospects

Business analysts believe that although skyrubber is favorable for the rise of synthetic rubber, we still need to be alert to the weakening of downstream demand in the later period, which is a certain negative for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. It is expected that the rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the later period will be limited.