1、 Price trend

At the beginning of this week, EPS price is 9087 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, EPS price is 9087 yuan / ton. The price is stable, the market is more volatile, and the transaction turns better. Traders and downstream factories receive goods on demand, mainly focusing on market transactions.

2、 Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price is stable, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, ordinary material quotation is 9000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Dongying Hairong EPS is 9050 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9100 yuan / ton for common materials.

3、 Future forecast

In addition to maintaining the necessary procurement, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream plant of EPS is not high. Besides, the intention of goods preparation is always low, and the terminal demand has been in a poor state. It is expected that EPS prices will be mainly in shock consolidation.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate was 2380 yuan / ton, up 3.48% from 2300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 5.78% year on year. On January 9, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 122.81, up 1.76 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 58.73% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market slightly increased. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started normal operation of their devices, and the supply was stable. The price of the manufacturers was mainly stable. In the near future, the supply of goods in the market was normal. In the near future, some manufacturers achieved better indicators, the factory price slightly increased, and the domestic price trend rose. In addition, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has slightly improved, and the downstream purchase is on demand. Affected by the coming of Spring Festival, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry has a positive sales, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased slightly. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of concentrated nitric acid fluctuated at a low level in China, with a weekend price of 1600 yuan / ton. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1500 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1800 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1580 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1750 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation rate of domestic maintenance equipment is relatively high, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site delivery is general. The market price of ammonium nitrate remains low due to negative factors. The low price of nitric acid is a negative influence of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has a limited increase.

The overall supply of liquid ammonia in the upstream market is relatively loose, and the unit operating rate of the enterprise is slightly higher. The staggered peak and limited production in Shanxi Province and limited transportation in Wuhan, Hubei Province lead to the tight supply of liquid ammonia in some regions, while the start-up of other liquid ammonia enterprises is still at a high level. With the high rate of start-up of liquid ammonia units in Hubei Province, the price trend of liquid ammonia has declined slightly by 0.58%. In addition, in the near future, the maintenance of some manufacturers has been restarted, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises has increased, and the local liquid ammonia market may decline, but nationwide, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is mainly declining. The overall price of the upstream liquid ammonia market is lower, and the price increase of ammonium nitrate Market is limited.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has increased, and the supply of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased, but the market price of raw materials has been slightly lower, and the price cost support for ammonium nitrate Market is limited. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the demand for ammonium nitrate may rise in the later period, and expect that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period may maintain a high volatility.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic bromine market kept stable operation this week, with the average price of bromine kept at about 30444 yuan / ton in the week, down 12.39% from the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: affected by the low demand in the downstream market, the price of bromine in China is relatively weak according to previous years. The overall start-up level in the industry is low. Some enterprises have run out of inventory and the industry is in a weak situation of supply and demand. At present, the quotation of enterprises is between 30000-31000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the downstream flame retardant market has poor purchase and demand, general support for bromine price, and flat trading atmosphere in the industry; pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries are on the low side, and the overall impact on bromine price is negative.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, at present, the overall supply and demand of domestic bromine chemical industry are weak, the overall market performance is relatively stable, and the bromine price is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone was stable this week. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week and the end of the week was 7383 yuan / ton, 2.78% higher than that of the same period last month and 14.45% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market of cyclohexanone is stable this week. The main price in Shandong is 7300-7450 yuan / ton (ex factory in spot exchange), which is stable compared with last week. The situation in the Middle East is suddenly tense, crude oil is rising, pure benzene market is rising, and cyclohexanone cost pressure is increasing. Although the caprolactam market is slightly up, the total demand for chemical fiber is general. In addition to the impact of heavy snow in the North last week, logistics and transportation are affected, and the demand for solvent is limited. At the beginning of the week, Bank of China in Jining stopped production of cyclohexanone and converted to cyclohexane production. However, there was abundant spot supply of cyclohexanone, and the industry was not confident in the future market, which led to poor sentiment and stable operation of the market.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: this week, pure benzene rose in shock. This week, the Middle East geopolitical factors led to a staged surge in crude oil prices, which led to an increase in the price of benzene inside and outside. Within the week, FOB South Korean pure benzene once rose to 751 US dollars / ton, and domestic East China market sales rose to 6020 yuan / ton. Driven by the rise of pure benzene, phenol ketone and caprolactam in the downstream rose slightly in the week. However, the main downstream styrene declined due to the difficulty of spot delivery and the expected increase of subsequent supply, which failed to form a good support for pure benzene. Therefore, the rebound basis of pure benzene is not solid. After the crude oil’s rise is digested and the rise is reversed, the center of gravity of pure benzene also shows a small decline.

Caprolactam: the caprolactam market rose slightly this week. On January 3, the US air strike resulted in the death of senior Iranian officials, and the escalation of us Iran conflict led to the rise of crude oil prices, with the price of kinetic plate following the rise. The price of pure benzene rose to 6000 yuan / ton in East China market under the support of favorable external conditions. The loss of caprolactam was deepened when the price of raw materials increased, and the manufacturer actively supported the price to reduce the loss. In addition, due to the impact of snowfall in the north this week, the start-up of the caprolactam plant in the North was not high as a whole, and transportation was limited, resulting in the shortage of caprolactam spot supply. The market price of caprolactam increased with the improvement of cost and supply.

Adipic acid: in the end of the month, the attitude and enthusiasm of the domestic adipic acid market players have decreased, and the external situation at the beginning of last weekend and the rainy and snowy weather in many places also have a certain impact on the adipic acid market. At the beginning of the month, the main adipic acid plants were mostly free of pressure, some of them were still under construction, the trading hours were slightly reduced, the contract volume of middlemen was also reduced, the pressure of manufacturers was not low, and the market mentality was strong. With the change of news in the week, the offer moved up slowly, and the middle of the week was a short wait-and-see. The main listing of pure benzene is on the high side of 5950 yuan / ton, and adipic acid industry is generally concerned about cost pressure. However, the price of oil and bulk will be boosted briefly within the week based on the news from the inside and outside of the week, and then the price will go down. However, the settlement cycle is nearly half, and the cost will still move up to support the expectation of the industry.

3、 Future forecast

In general, although some cyclohexanone is temporarily stopped, there is abundant spot supply in the market, and the demand for chemical fiber is general. Near the end of the year, logistics and transportation are limited, and solvent users have entered the holiday stage in succession, and the impact of total market demand is limited. Business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the market for cyclohexanone will be stable before the festival.

1、 Price trend

In 2019, the domestic market of dimethyl ether rose many times and then fell sharply, showing a continuous trend of “down v”. Compared with last year, this year’s trend is more tortuous, and the overall price is at a low level. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic market price of dimethyl ether will be slightly reduced in 2019, mainly due to shocks. At the beginning of the year, the average price was 3220 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of dimethyl ether in China was 3123.33 yuan / ton, a year-round decline of 3.00%. From the trend chart of DME price, it can be clearly seen that the highest point of domestic DME price in 2019 appears on January 7, the average domestic price is 3630 yuan / ton, the lowest point appears on August 30, the average price is 2920 yuan / ton, the maximum amplitude of the whole year is 19.56%, and the price comparison between the end of the year and the beginning of the year is not much different.

2、 Market analysis

In 2019, the price trend of the whole year is roughly divided into four stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of April, with the market of DME fluctuating at a high level; the second stage is from the end of April to the end of July, with the market of DME falling continuously; the third stage is from the end of July to the end of November, with the market of DME rising and falling twice in a row; the fourth stage is from the end of November to the end of the year, with the market of DME fluctuating continuously The market rose continuously, and the specific trend is as follows:

In the first stage, around the Spring Festival, the market of dimethyl ether fluctuated frequently, mostly with high volatility, and the overall transaction atmosphere was fair. At the beginning of the month, due to the strong trend of the international crude oil and liquefied gas market, it played a positive role in the DME market. In addition, under the influence of the new year’s Day holiday, the downstream manufacturers actively entered the market to replenish goods. The manufacturers are confident and the prices continue to rise to a high level. However, the rate of pushing up is too fast, and there is a psychological resistance to high prices, and the downstream replenishment is over, and they have left the market to wait and see. But at this time, the Spring Festival will come, and the manufacturers will arrange the warehouse before the festival, so the market atmosphere is stagnant. Manufacturers have no choice but to continue to make profits until the market trading atmosphere has warmed up. After the Spring Festival, in most areas, there is Blizzard, the market demand and transportation capacity are in a weak position, the manufacturer’s shipment is continuously blocked, the inventory pressure is increasing, the market continues to be weak, mainly downward. Until the beginning of March, the market rebounded to a certain extent due to the upward support of cost methanol and the influence of multiple plant maintenance in Henan Province. Later, due to the control of liquefied gas, it returned to the weak.

In the second stage, the market of dimethyl ether is in the off-season, and the unit is under centralized maintenance. The overall operating rate in April is only 22.33%. In the early stage, due to the impact of centralized maintenance in Henan, the market supply was reduced, and the consolidation was mainly horizontal. However, in the later period, the maintenance benefits are constantly consumed, most of the manufacturers’ devices are restarted, and the market is in the off-season, the terminal demand is gradually weakened, the manufacturer’s inventory is gradually increased, and the downstream only needs replenishment. At this time, the cost of methanol fluctuated upward, which increased the cost pressure of DME production enterprises. But by crude oil and liquefied gas containment, prices fell one after another. At this time, the production enterprises are affected by high inventory and high cost, and are adjusted to half load production.

In the third stage, the market of DME fluctuated for two consecutive times. The first time: on July 19, there was an explosion in Henan Yima Gasification Plant, and all four of its enterprises stopped for rectification. The overall operating rate of the market fell sharply, resulting in a sharp rise in market price. Take xinlianxin in Henan Province as an example, it rose from 2980 yuan / ton to 3350 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.42%, and other plants all increased significantly. Due to seasonal factors, the terminal demand has not improved, and the market continues to rise, so after the event, the DME market quickly returned to rationality. In August, due to weak terminal demand, unable to support the market, the transaction atmosphere continued to be cold, and xinlianxin repeatedly implemented the minimum guarantee policy to protect the market price. However, the impact on the market is limited and the decline cannot be changed. In the later stage, the traditional “gold nine silver ten” market showed signs of recovery. The second time: on September 14, the attack on Saudi Aramco’s factory led to a sharp rise in crude oil, which led to a sharp rise in liquefied gas in a short time, and the cost of methanol was also driven by crude oil. This event reversed the decline of dimethyl ether, and the downstream buyer was active in entering the market. Then, the 11th primary school holiday brought good results. The market price of dimethyl ether rose continuously, and the price was only the highest point in the next year. In the middle of October, although the peak season was not over, it was also close to the end. DME ended the peak season ahead of time due to the rapid rise in the early stage. In late October, the market opened a downward channel, and the downstream market dropped out to wait and see, with a cautious attitude.

In the fourth stage, the operating rate of domestic DME market was only 15.58% in November, and the market supply decreased. In November, CP price rose, coupled with the continuous rise of international crude oil in late November, the news played a positive support in the face of the market. Although the cost of methanol in this stage is weak, liquefied gas is the main driving force for the rise of DME. Due to the tight international spot supply, the civil market of liquefied gas is dominated by a large margin. The national market has increased by different ranges, the price difference between gas and ether has been continuously opened, the downstream mentality is better, and the enthusiasm for entering the market has been improved. The DME market rose to the end of the year.

DME production in 2019:

10000 tons January February March April May July August September October November

Output 24.65 21.765 24.494 22.465 24.567 22.13 22.43 15.29 13.71 8.8 12.0

Year on year 0% – 11.70% + 12.54% – 8.28% + 8.56 – 9.92% + 1.36% – 31.83% – 7.71% – 35.81% 36.36%

3、 Industrial chain:

In 2019, the domestic methanol market fluctuated frequently. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the year was 2188 yuan / ton. As of December 23, the average market price of methanol in China was 2090 yuan / ton, down 4.48% in the year. The highest price in the year is 2572 yuan / ton on March 11, and the lowest price in the year is 1970 yuan / ton on July 31, with a maximum amplitude of 23.41%.

The methanol market in 2019 can be described as “mixed sorrow and happiness”. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the domestic methanol market price has two large-scale growth, the first time in the first quarter, with the increase of 16.91% from February 12 (2200 yuan / ton) to March 12 (2572 yuan / ton) after the lunar year. The second time was at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. From September 1 (1994 yuan / ton) to October 11 (2392 yuan / ton), the increase was 19.96%. A big price “dive” occurred in the middle of the second quarter, and the price continued to fall for a long time, from May 23 (2342 yuan / ton) to July 31 (1970 yuan / ton), down 15.88%.

In 2019, the domestic civil market of liquefied gas developed into: the first half of the year saw great ups and downs, and the second half of the year saw “forge ahead”. Compared with 2018, the trend is quite different, but still subject to seasonal factors. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market rose slightly in 2019, during which most of the price was volatile. At the beginning of the year, the average price of liquefied gas was 3900 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 3966.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.17% in the whole year. It can be clearly seen from the price trend chart of liquefied gas that in 2019, the highest price of domestic liquefied gas appeared on April 26, the average price was 4516.67 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared on September 11, the average price was 3640 yuan / ton, the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 19.41%, the annual fluctuation was large, and the price of liquefied gas hit a new low within two years.

4、 Future forecast

In recent years, more and more attention has been paid to the news of DME industry. Due to the influence of policies, some manufacturers have been shut down for a long time. Although the production capacity is high, the utilization rate has been greatly reduced. As we all know, most of dimethyl ether is used to mix with liquefied gas, but in the second half of 2019, the state strengthened the inspection of mixed gas, and some small manufacturers had to shut down. In 2019, the market operating rate of dimethyl ether is only about 15-20%, and the two methyl ether survive under the attack of two sides of methanol and liquefied gas. As of December 30, the market price of DME has returned to a stable state. In the short term, it seems that the trend of DME is mainly narrow adjustment. Looking back to 2019, the market trend of DME is lower than that of previous years, the overall price is at a low level, the market supply and demand is unbalanced, and the fluctuation is still greatly affected by the trend of liquefied gas Civil and methanol. In 2020, the mixed market is not optimistic, and the living space of DME may still be narrowed.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, ammonium sulfate continued to fall in the fourth quarter, and the market is now stable. On October 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulphate was 636 yuan / ton, and on December 29, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulphate was 546 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 14.14% in the quarter. So far, the ammonium sulphate commodity index on December 29 is 45.75, which is the same as yesterday, 56.95% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 24.83% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market of ammonium sulphate is stable at present after the previous big fall. The domestic and foreign market of ammonium sulphate is weak, and the market of coking ammonium sulphate is stable. The price of mainstream ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 420-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan Province is 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 480-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-680 yuan, that in North China is 450-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the agricultural demand is off-season. At present, the production enthusiasm of the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not high, and the operating rate is around 40%. The raw materials are mostly purchased on demand, and the supply is sufficient. Generally speaking, the demand for ammonium chloride in the downstream market is weak. The price of ammonium chloride is slightly loose. With the small increase of nitrogen fertilizer market, it is expected to drive up, and the industry is slightly boosted. At present, the compound fertilizer enterprises are mainly horizontal arrangement with limited adjustment space. Mainly focus on the trend of urea. Compared with other regions, the northeast region has improved in goods delivery.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are 22 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are respectively trichloromethane (10.53%), epichlorohydrin (4.42%) and propane (3.82%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are sulfur (- 5.63%), phosphate rock (- 3.20%), lithium carbonate (- 3.06%). This week’s average was 0.11%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association, at present, the start-up of ammonium sulfate Market in winter is slow, and the operation rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is slightly increased, but the enthusiasm of stock up is insufficient. Domestic demand for ammonium sulphate is weak abroad, and the delivery volume is average. The market bidding of coking ammonium sulfate is better than before. It is expected that the internal ammonium sulfate Market will fluctuate slightly in the later stage, while the coking ammonium sulfate Market will remain stable.

1、 Price trend

On December 27, the antimony commodity index was 54.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.77% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 15.94% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: the price of antimony oxide was stable and the transaction was light on Wednesday. As of Friday, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 34000 yuan / ton and 99.8% at 36500 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials: the delivery and investment of mining enterprises are light, some mines are still shut down for maintenance in winter, the price of raw materials is relatively stable, and the overall market is stable.

Domestic market: the market price of antimony ingot is stable this week, and the market is affected by the stock before the festival, so the trading is more active than before. In terms of price, as of Friday, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingots was 37500 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingots was 38000 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingots was 39000 yuan / ton, and the average price of 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots was 35000 yuan / ton.

Nonferrous Industry: closed for Christmas holiday this week, LME has only three trading days, and most of the external market is to reduce positions, while the domestic market keeps moving forward steadily due to the economy, and the Central Bank of China increases the reverse repo operation in the open market, so that the end of the year funds remain abundant, A-share stands at 3000 points, and the basic metals keep a strong momentum of rising under the guidance of copper bulls.

3、 Future prospects

Next week is facing cross year market. On New Year’s day on Wednesday, the domestic and foreign commodity markets are closed. In the first half of the week, the market is cautious in light trading. In the second half of the week, at the beginning of the 2020 new year, the macro environment is still in optimistic mood. However, according to their own fundamental characteristics, each item may increase its position trading in the new year in an orderly manner, and the spot market will also open a new page in 2020.

According to the data detection of the business agency, although the cobalt Market in 2019 is not as hot as it was in 2017 and 2018, it is still a big rise and fall. Generally speaking, the price trend of cobalt Market in 2019 shows such a trend, which is mainly determined by two major events in 2019.

1、 Subsidy decline

In 2019, the main vocabulary of new energy vehicle market is subsidy decline. On the afternoon of March 26, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the development and Reform Commission jointly issued the notice on further improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the “notice”). The main contents of the notice include: 1. The maximum subsidy of pure electric passenger vehicles is only 25000 yuan after the decline, which is 50% less than that in 2018. 2. After the transition period, the local subsidy for new energy vehicles will be directly cancelled (except for new energy buses and fuel cell vehicles). 3. No subsidy will be given for electric vehicles with a endurance of less than 250km. The transition period is from March 26 to June 25, 2019. The official release of the notice marks a comma for the speculation on the subsidy policy since 2018, and also marks a pause in the production and sales of new energy vehicles.

After the transition period of subsidy, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2019 have fallen for five consecutive months on a year-on-year basis since July. According to the data of China Automobile Association, from July to September this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 80000, 85000 and 80000 respectively, down 4.7%, 15.8% and 34.2% year-on-year respectively; by October and November, the sales volume was 75000 and 72000 respectively, and the year-on-year decline rate even expanded to more than 45%. The sharp decline of new energy vehicle production and sales is bad for the cobalt market. The demand for cobalt in the future market is expected to decline, and the cobalt market is bad.

2、 Glencore cobalt stoppage

Mutanda is a large copper and cobalt mine owned by Glencore in the DRC. In 2018, mutanda produced 190000 tons of copper and 27300 tons of cobalt, respectively accounting for 0.9% and 20.8% of the global supply, making it the largest cobalt mine in the world. In the first half of 2019, mutanda produced 13400 tons of cobalt, up + 13.6% year on year. In August 2019, Glencore announced that it would close the cobalt mine at the end of 2019 and enter a two-year maintenance period due to the rapid drop in the price of battery metal materials and the increase in project cost. On November 26, Glencore announced that the mutanda copper and cobalt mine had entered the maintenance period ahead of time, so that the shutdown of Glencore copper and cobalt mine was officially realized. Glencore’s production of cobalt ore stopped, and the supply of cobalt in the aftermarket dropped significantly, and the market of cobalt in the aftermarket was good.

3、 Summary and future forecast

The sharp decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles has led to the slowdown in the development of new energy vehicles, the bearish rise in demand for cobalt in the future market, and the accumulation of water in the early cobalt price, all of which are the reasons for the sharp drop in the price of cobalt in 2019. But the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles is absolutely the most important and key fuse among many reasons. Glencore’s discontinuation of cobalt production is a shot in the arm of the cobalt market. The rebound in cobalt prices since August was stimulated by this news. However, with the passage of time, the decline rate of new energy vehicle sales is far faster than the market expectation. The demand of cobalt market is not optimistic, and the rebound of cobalt price begins to decline. At the same time, due to the increase of cobalt cost, the decline rate of cobalt price is relatively small, and the cobalt price remains at a relatively high level until the shutdown of Glencore cobalt mine is realized. After Glencore stopped production, the price of cobalt rose for a time, but due to the close of the year, cobalt enterprises in order to ease the financial pressure, low-cost shipments occurred, which made it difficult for cobalt prices to rebound substantially. When the time comes to 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will gradually stabilize, 5g mobile phones may usher in a wave of replacement, and the demand for cobalt in the future market is expected to increase; in terms of supply, Glencore cobalt production will be stopped and realized, the supply of cobalt will be reduced, and the supply-demand relationship of cobalt will be changed to some extent. 2020 is expected to be a year of stable development of cobalt, and the price of cobalt is expected to rise. At the same time, the investment is cautious and With the decrease of market liquidity, it is difficult for the cobalt market to reproduce the soaring market in the past 17 years. Overall, the market of cobalt in 2020 is expected to rise steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, after last week’s big rise, the price of glycol fell in shock this week. On December 20, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 5500 yuan / ton, down 0.9% from last week, slightly down.

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 5375 yuan / ton. After one week’s adjustment, the price on Friday was 5390 yuan / ton, down 4.6% from last weekend.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of December 18, the comprehensive daily operation rate of glycol unit is 66.14%, up 1.69%; among them, the operation rate of non coal unit is 63.01%, up 2.06%; the operation rate of coal unit is 70.56%, up 1.17%.

On December 18, 400000 tons of ethylene glycol project of Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. and a 90000 tons of ethylene glycol line of 1.8 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. were put into operation successively; on December 20, the ethylene link of 750000 tons of ethylene glycol project of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was put into operation, and the output is expected to be 24 days.

As of Thursday, ethylene glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 302000 tons, an increase of 9500 tons from Monday. Including 149000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 60000 tons in Ningbo, 15000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu, and 35000 tons in Taicang.

According to the news, between December 19 and December 25, the main port of East China is expected to deliver 229000 tons, Zhangjiagang port is expected to deliver 100000 tons, Taicang port is expected to deliver 36000 tons and Ningbo port is expected to deliver 30000 tons.

In the downstream, the polyester starting load is 86.15%, which is stable compared with last week. The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 70%, and the link ratio drops about 3 points. The overall profit of polyester filament is in the middle and lower level.

3、 Future forecast

Glycol analysts believe that after last week’s inventory reduction caused by a sharp rise, glycol prices are currently at a recent high, there is room for a correction. This week’s port shipment is general, and the arrival is still delayed. The following week’s shipment arrives at the port as scheduled, and the accumulated warehouse will be inevitable. In addition, due to the simultaneous feeding of three new units, the output will increase significantly if there is no accident. The downstream polyester Market released the production reduction plan before and after the Spring Festival. At present, the unit operation rate has declined slightly. Based on the above factors, it is expected that the price of glycol will continue to fluctuate and fall in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of December 20, the domestic market price of n-propanol remained stable. At present, the main quotation of domestic n-propanol is around 9100-11400 yuan / ton, and the price is basically unchanged compared with that at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the overall trend of domestic n-propanol market is relatively stable, and the manufacturer’s operating rate is normal. N-propanol is a widely used chemical product, which can be directly used as a solvent, can also be used for the synthesis of propyl acetate and then used as a solvent, can also be used for the synthesis of n-propylamine, di-propylamine and other agricultural fields, or for the synthesis of various esters in food additives, plasticizers, spices and many other fields On the one hand, it is widely used in coatings, paints, adhesives, cosmetics, plastics and fungicides. It is also an important raw material in many fields, such as food additives, feed additives, synthetic spices, cleaners, preservatives and brake oil. In addition, n-propanol has a very important use in the field of pharmaceutical intermediates. On December 21, the average price of barreled n n-propanol in Taiwan was around 11500-12000 yuan / ton. Shanghai Yilian Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 11600 yuan / ton of n-propanol for outbound (barreled / Dalian, Taiwan); Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Yixing Chemical Trade Co., Ltd. offered 10600 yuan / ton of n-propanol for outbound (barreled / tax included). Dealers all over the country still reserve the price. The price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiations or differences. There are also differences in each region. The actual single negotiation is the main part, and the future market will wait for the change of raw material price and delivery.

Industry chain: the ethylene market is up and down this week. By the end of July 17, the U.S. ethylene market had declined, with FD’s U.S. Gulf quotation of $336-348 / ton, down $16 / ton; the European ethylene market had risen, with FD’s northwest Europe quotation of $852-865 / ton, CIF northwest Europe quotation of $769-778 / ton, up $1 / ton; the Asian ethylene market had risen, with CFR Northeast Asia quotation of $728-734 / ton, up $20 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quotation of $678-684 Yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency: at the end of the year, the market of n-propanol has entered the off-season, and the manufacturer is expected to maintain the stability of the market. It is expected that the market will maintain the stability in the near future, or will fluctuate slightly.