In November, the performance of domestic liquid ammonia market was sluggish, continuing the downward trend of last month, and the price hit a new low. At the end of the month, the price in most parts of the country still showed no sign of stabilizing. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the drop of liquid ammonia Market in Shandong Province reached 5.53%, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was generally 2700-2800 yuan / ton. It is 200-300 yuan / ton lower than last month. The overall market atmosphere is relatively low, and the expectation for the later market is low.

In terms of supply, the overall supply of liquid ammonia Market in November was relatively surplus, and the unit operating rate of enterprises was slightly higher. In Shanxi and Shandong areas, the peak shifting and production limiting, the coming of winter haze, the increasing pressure of environmental protection, and the limited transportation in Wuhan, Hubei Province, lead to the tight supply of liquid ammonia in some areas; while the start-up of other liquid ammonia enterprises is still at a high level, with the full resumption of production of liquid ammonia units in Hubei, the price of liquid ammonia has declined. In addition, in the near future, manufacturers in Anhui Province have maintenance plans. In the next month, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises will be reduced, and the local liquid ammonia market may pick up. However, in the whole country, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is still not optimistic, mainly due to the relative lack of downstream demand. At present, the market is still in a situation of weak supply and demand.

In terms of demand, the demand for liquid ammonia continued to decline in November. First of all, the downstream operating rate remained low, and under the double pressure of environmental protection and safety, the operating rate of some chemical enterprises continued to be low, and the sales progress of compound fertilizer enterprises was slow, the fertilizer procurement entered the market off-season, and the production enthusiasm was not high, especially the situation of small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises stopping production or reducing production was particularly obvious In the aspect of phosphate fertilizer, the demand of phosphate compound fertilizer has entered into the window period of demand, the fertilizer land in winter market has gradually shrunk, some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the demand for liquid ammonia is shrinking. At the same time, Hubei, as a phosphate fertilizer enterprise with 40% capacity, has a large production limit.

In the future, the business community believes that the liquid ammonia market may be difficult to get out of the strong market in the short term, which is mainly affected by the weak demand in most regions, resulting in the overstock of inventory. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of further exploration.

On the 29th, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic liquid ammonia market tends to be stable, with a slight decline in some areas. On the 29th, the drop of liquid ammonia was 0.84% in the week. On the weekend, most of the manufacturers reported a stable decline, some of them were down 50 yuan / ton. Some of the enterprises in the main production area of Shandong Province maintained a stable decline, some of them were down 50 yuan / ton, and the price in the northwest region remained stable. At present, there is a surplus of local ammonia, especially some of the manufacturers in Shandong Province have a relatively wide supply of goods Loose, the pressure of enterprise shipment is increasing, but the price of manufacturers with large ammonia volume is mainly stable, and the main quotation in Shandong is 2750-2850 yuan / ton.

In North China, the liquid ammonia is also slightly lower. The lack of demand leads to the current ammonia storage and price decline. The shipment pressure increases significantly. There are many downstream stoppages. The main quotation in North China is 2800 yuan / ton up and down.

The increasing pressure of environmental protection in Hebei region has led to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises, such as China and Afghanistan, has led to weak demand in the downstream. There are many enterprises accumulating inventory, and the price has not changed significantly. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2770-2850 yuan / ton.

Over the weekend, there was a slight downward trend in Central China, and the delivery pressure in Hubei was obvious. Part of Henan was affected by environmental pressure, and the price gave way to more profits. At present, the liquid ammonia market is full of negative atmosphere, weak operation, and the mainstream quotation in Henan is up and down 2700 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business club believes that the market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the high ammonia volume in most regions. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of continuing to explore low.

I. trend analysis

In November, the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market fell first and then rose. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in early November was 1100075 yuan / ton, then fell to 10725 yuan / ton, and then rebounded to 11075 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall price at the end of the month was 0.68% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 3.26% higher than the low point at the end of the month.

II. Market analysis

First, in November, the raw material butadiene first fell and then rose, forming a resonance with cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene in early November was 9123 yuan / ton, which fell to 8537 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and 8834 yuan / ton in the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 3.17% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the amplitude at the higher point was 6.42% higher than that at the lower point of the month.

Secondly, according to the business club, the inventory of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber traders continued to decline slightly in November, forming a certain support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the information of the business association, at present, the start-up load of Shunding unit of Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Sichuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is a little lower, and the units of Qilu, Yanshan, Maoming, Daqing and Dushanzi are in normal operation.

Third, the price of natural rubber rose sharply in November, to a certain extent, pulling the rise of synthetic rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of natural rubber at the beginning of the month was 11230 yuan / ton in November, and the peak at the end of the month was 12116 yuan / ton, up 7.89% from the beginning of the month.

Finally, the output of downstream tires declined year-on-year, with a certain demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, but there is still a risk of weakness. According to the business agency, in October 2019, the output of domestic rubber tires was 71.289 million, down 3.28% month on month, up 3.4% year on year; from January to October, the output of domestic rubber tires was 70.325 million, up 2.5% year on year.

III. future prospects

Business analysts believe that although skyrubber is favorable for the rise of synthetic rubber, we still need to be alert to the weakening of downstream demand in the later period, which is a certain negative for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. It is expected that the rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the later period will be limited.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2235.00 yuan / ton, down 6.88% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 70.95 on November 22.

II. Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2270 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

III. future forecast

In late November, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business club, the average price of pet level manufacturers on November 14 was 6425.00 yuan / ton, and the average price of pet level manufacturers on November 15 was 6525.00 yuan / ton. The overall price increased by 100, or 1.56%, and the pet market rose slightly this week.

II. Cause analysis

Products: this week, the starting load of polyester plant is stable, just need some replenishment, and the market turnover is general. On July 15, the main quotation range of pet water bottle manufacturers is 6500-6600 yuan / ton.

Raw materials: PTA continues to be strong shock, with certain support on the cost side. The industry is cautious to wait and see, just need to be picked as needed.

On November 14, pet commodity index was 48.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.44% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.19% from 47.74, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

III. future forecast

According to pet analysts of the business club, it is expected that pet market will run smoothly in the short term, with the main quotation range of 6550-6700 yuan / ton.

I. price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 18866.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 18800 yuan / ton. The price fell slightly within the week, with a range of 0.35%.

II. Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus market price fell slightly this week. Downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, market procurement is not warm. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 18600 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18800 yuan / ton. The main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 18500 yuan / ton. The overall market is light, and traders mainly wait and see.

Industry chain: this week, the market of phosphorus ore has been in a weak state of consolidation. The enterprises supply the orders of old customers sporadically, continue to digest the inventory, and the new orders are rare. The average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 416.67 yuan / ton, which is 1.57% lower than that of November 1. In the first half of November, the domestic coking coal market fell in shock. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 15, the coking coal fell by 4.18%, and the current tax price range is 1360-1500 yuan / ton. Phosphoric acid market maintained stable consolidation, and on-site trading was still relatively light.

III. future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the price of yellow phosphorus market fell slightly this week, the overall market of yellow phosphorus was light, and the downstream demand was insufficient, so it was difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly consolidated.

Trade name: phenol

East China market (November 16): 7250 yuan / ton

Trend chart of domestic phenol Market Price

Last week, the domestic phenol Market turned downward to upward, Sinopec phenol manufacturers lowered, and under the pressure of loss of intermediate traders, the intention of low-cost shipment weakened. The manufacturers arranged their orders according to the plan, and the spot supply was a little tight. The East China market took the lead in pushing upward, the terminal inquiry increased, the intermediate traders participated cautiously, and the transaction was relatively flat. The business community expected the domestic phenol Market to operate in a turbulent way today. The East China phenol Market The negotiation range is 7250-7300 yuan / ton.

Up to now, the offer of phenol in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation

East China 7250 + 50

Shandong area 7300

7350 + 50 around Yanshan

South China 7500 + 50

Trade name: acetone

Market price (November 15, East China): 5250 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic acetone market is obviously up, the supply in the market is tight, the port inventory has dropped to a new low, petrochemical enterprises have raised the opening unit price of acetone twice in a row, some of the imported goods have delayed arrival at the port, the sentiment of holding the goods to cover the market is obvious, the enthusiasm of pushing up is high, the downstream and trading companies continue to enter the market to replenish goods, supporting the market focus to move up, and lonzhong information expects today Acetone market runs at a high level. It is expected that the negotiation price in East China market will be around 5300 yuan / ton today, with the whole market running at a high level.

Up to now, the offer of acetone in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation

East China 5250 + 100

Shandong 5000 0

Yanshan surrounding area: 5000 + 50

5250 + 200 in South China

I. price trend

This week (11.11-11.15) the market of domestic butadiene fluctuated in a narrow range. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of domestic butadiene at the beginning of the week was 8670 yuan / ton, and that of domestic butadiene at the end of the week was 8790 yuan / ton, up 1.38% in the week. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell by 22.86% month on month and 12.68% year on year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: this week (11.11-11.15), the domestic butadiene market was weak and downward, the early domestic device parking news drove the market higher, but the external market continued to be weak, and the downstream real order follow-up was limited, the good news was digested in the week, the market weak and downward. In the near future, there is abundant supply of foreign cargo. In January, the turnover of cargo sources is low. Meanwhile, the supply of spot goods in the north is relatively abundant. The market turns downward, leading to cautious inquiry in the downstream. The market turnover continues to be low, further dragging the market down. As of Thursday, the delivery price of superior products in Shandong Province was 8550-8600 yuan / ton, a drop of about 1000 yuan on a month on month basis; the offer of superior products in East China was relatively chaotic, with the mainstream price reference of 9100 yuan / ton, a drop of 500 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the downstream inquiry intention was low, and sporadic lower prices were also heard.

In terms of enterprises: Sinopec East China butadiene supply price is stable at 8900 yuan / ton; Liaotong chemical butadiene is priced at 9010 yuan / ton on Monday for export, about 200 tons, and 8510 yuan / ton on Thursday for export; Fushun Petrochemical butadiene plant is shut down for small inspection from September to December, and it is now restarted for export, and there is no supply for export; Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 135000 ton / year butadiene plant is temporarily shut down from November 1 to November 12 Before the restart of operation; Zhenhai Refining and chemical butadiene plant on November 12-15, short-term stop for small inspection; external market continued to decline, as of 13, CFR China closed at $880 / ton, down $90 / ton on last week, and heard that January cargo had lower prices.

Industrial chain: in terms of downstream synthetic rubber, styrene butadiene rubber. This week, the factory price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber rose slightly, the market’s offer center moved up, and the transaction atmosphere was slightly stalemate. During the period, the continuous decline of the external market price of butadiene in Asia has an impact on the market mentality, but the spot resources of SBR of Qilu Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical are tight, Sinopec and some sales companies of PetroChina have limited market volume, and the price of Tianjiao is slightly higher, which has a certain boosting effect on the trend of SBR. In the last cycle, some merchants made up empty orders and terminal enterprises just needed to make up goods, which disappeared after entering this week. The downstream buying tends to follow the use and purchase, and the overall trading atmosphere is stagnant. As of the closing, the mainstream price of Qilu 1502 in Shandong today is 10950-11000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of Fushun 1502 in East China market is 10800 yuan / ton.

The influence of SBR on butadiene: the domestic SBR market will be shaken next week and the falling pressure materials will gradually appear. China’s two private enterprises want to purchase 260000 tons of rubber from Thailand to give Tianjiao a favorable stimulus, and the high price has boosted the synthetic rubber; the overall increase of supply in the domestic butadiene market, coupled with the continuous decline in external prices, will make the decline of butadiene hard to change next week, and the cost side is a negative guide. The operating rate of styrene butadiene production unit is acceptable, and the supply depends on whether the mainstream sales companies control the quantity; the north is in the heating season, with large economic environment deviation, and it is difficult for the tire and rubber products enterprises to improve the way of using and mining.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: in this period, the factory price of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose slightly, the market range was volatile, and the trading follow-up was relatively general. At the beginning of this cycle, in view of the high cost and price, and the relatively limited issuance of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, the speculation atmosphere is gradually rising, the market offer is higher, the price increase of the operators is enlarged, and the ex factory supply price of cis-4-polybutadiene is rising. At the end of the week, the external price of butadiene fell sharply, its domestic market also weakened and consolidated, the downstream wait-and-see mood intensified, and the purchase bias price attitude, there were some low drag, and the market price of Shunding fell slightly. Until now, some brands have not opened orders smoothly in Shunding, and the wait-and-see mood of the industry has intensified. Only tentative offers have been made for shipment. The inquiry and transaction atmosphere are not as good as that of butylbenzene, which tends to be slightly stalemate. As of the receipt of the draft, Sinopec’s factory price is 10800 yuan / ton for Qilu Shunding in North China and 10900-11000 yuan / ton for Qilu Shunding market in Shandong. The above prices are for reference only.

The influence of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber on butadiene: the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market will be mainly consolidated next week. In terms of the spot price difference, Shanghai Rubber Company’s performance is up, and the message side support exists; in terms of the cost side, the price of raw material butadiene is low, and the domestic market is also down, and there are still downward expectations in the future, and the cost side is short; in terms of the supply side, Jinzhou Shunding device is expected to restart, and some private spot replenishment is expected to alleviate the current tight supply situation of some brands of Shunding; On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream tires rose slightly, but there was no sign of improvement in the purchase of synthetic rubber, and most of them continued to purchase just needed and kept prices down.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, the start-up of synthetic rubber industry has not declined significantly temporarily; there is rigid demand in the downstream. On the negative side, the supply of goods in the far month is abundant and the price is low, the supply of goods in the north is abundant, and the mentality of the downstream is short. With the restart of Fushun, Huayu and other devices and the overall increase of market supply, the supply and demand fundamentals of the short-term domestic butadiene market are difficult to have a significant positive support; in addition, there are many lower transaction prices in the external market, which continue to drag the domestic market. Considering the overall situation, the butadiene analysts of the business community predict that the domestic butadiene market will be hard to change next week. It is suggested to pay attention to the latest prices of the internal and external market Criteria and transaction guidance.

I. price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel this week remained stable and fluctuated in a narrow range. The domestic gasoline price was 6271 yuan / ton, 0.7% higher than last week’s gasoline price; the domestic diesel price was 6425 yuan / ton, 0.04% lower than last week’s diesel price.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the international crude oil price fluctuated in a narrow range. On November 4, the domestic refined oil price was increased. This week, the gasoline price rose slightly and then it was corrected. This week, the domestic refined oil market maintained stable operation.

Industry chain: this week’s oil price rose first and then fell, with overall stability. WTI crude oil price rose only 0.75% in the week. This week’s Sino-U.S. trade talks released good news, OPEC continued to discuss production reduction, deepening production reduction is possible; however, U.S. crude oil inventory unexpectedly exceeded expectations. The international crude oil market is full of mixed news, and the international oil price fluctuates in a narrow range.

Market aspect: at the beginning of this week, driven by the rise of crude oil price and the rise of domestic refined oil, the market price of gasoline and diesel ushered in a small increase opportunity. However, the gasoline market demand in November has not improved, and the overall performance of market transactions is relatively average. In terms of diesel, oil companies such as engineering and infrastructure construction still form a relatively stable support for diesel demand, so the overall situation of refinery diesel delivery is stronger than gasoline.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that: at present, the price of international crude oil market is mainly fluctuating, the market demand for gasoline and diesel oil in November has not changed significantly, and it is expected that the market price of oil products will continue to be stable next week.

I. price trend:

According to the data monitoring of the business association, in October, the price of Sinopec orthobenzene fell from the high level, and the price fell continuously. As of October 31, the executed contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6500.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 400 yuan / ton or 5.80% compared with the price of 6900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1). Compared with the same period last year, the price fell by 18.75%. The price of o-benzene fell continuously, and the market of o-benzene was obviously weak.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis

Commodity name, quotation type, port, 10.25 price, 10.18 price, 10.11 price, 10.4 price, unit

O-xylene CFR China 765.00 780.00 800.00 805.00 USD / ton

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 795.00 815.00 835.00 855.00 USD / ton

O-xylene FOB South Korea 755.00 775.00 795.00 805.00 USD / ton

O-xylene FOB Rotterdam 865.00 865.00 860.00 860.00 USD / ton

© October 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

In October, the external quotation of orthobenzene fell in shock, while the external quotation of China fell by 40 USD / ton. The prices of benzene in Southeast Asia fell by $60 / T, while those in South Korea fell by $50 / T. The external quotation of o-benzene fell sharply, the price of imported o-benzene fell, the price of port o-benzene followed the decline, the port inventory recovered but was still relatively low, and the future o-benzene market was under great negative pressure. Sinopec’s listing price of ortho benzene in East China is 7500 yuan / ton, and the price dropped 400 yuan / ton in October. The operating rate of the Yangtze ortho benzene equipment is about 80%. The supply of ortho xylene is temporarily stable, the demand enthusiasm of the downstream of ortho benzene is poor, the purchasing power of ortho benzene is insufficient, and the favorable power of the future ortho benzene market is insufficient, with a large downward pressure.

Factor analysis of industrial chain

In October, the price of mixed xylene continued to fall sharply, with a drop of 15.52% in October. The sharp drop in the price of raw materials has a significant negative impact on the market of o-benzene, the cost of o-benzene has dropped significantly, the market of o-benzene has a large negative impact, and the price of o-benzene in the future has a large downward pressure. The overall cost of o-benzene has decreased, and the negative pressure of o-benzene is greater in the future. As can be seen in the figure, the price of mixed xylene tends to be stable at the end of October, the cost of o-benzene keeps stable, the downward pressure of o-benzene market weakens, and the overall o-benzene market in the future looks weak.

In October, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, but the decline gradually slowed down, but the decline trend of phthalic anhydride at the end of the month tended to be balanced. In October, the demand in the downstream of phthalic acid was insufficient, and the rising momentum was insufficient, so the market was negative. In terms of plasticizers, DOP market fell in October, with a large downward pressure in the aftermarket. However, with the gradual stabilization and slow recovery of plasticizer Market, the downward pressure in the aftermarket of o-benzene weakened, the negative situation in the downstream market of o-benzene eased, the upward momentum of o-benzene was still insufficient, and the downward pressure weakened.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, in October, the price of o-xylene raw material mixed with xylene fell sharply, the cost of o-xylene fell, and the pressure of o-benzene market fell sharply, but the price of mixed xylene gradually stabilized at the end of October, and the pressure of o-benzene market fell weakened; in terms of demand, the market of phthalic anhydride fell sharply, but the decline slowed down, the market of phthalic anhydride tended to be stable and plasticized After the sharp fluctuation of agent price, the price remained stable, the downstream demand was insufficient, and the growth momentum of ortho benzene was insufficient. However, with the gradual stability of the downstream market, the downward pressure of ortho benzene decreased, and the future ortho benzene market became stable. In the external market, the external price of ortho benzene fell sharply in October, and the port inventory increased but remained at a low level, which was bad for the domestic ortho benzene market but relieved. To sum up, the upstream and downstream market of o-xylene industry chain fell in October, which led to the decline of o-xylene price. However, with the gradual stability of the upstream and downstream market, the downward pressure of o-xylene market gradually weakened, and the upward momentum is still insufficient. The overall o-xylene market is more negative than positive, and it is expected that the weakness of o-xylene in the future will maintain stability.

The future market should focus on: o-benzene cost, downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer Market. Attention can be paid to: the external plate of o-benzene.