1、 Price data
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the gasoline price has been running steadily this week, while the diesel price has declined slightly. The domestic gasoline price is 4540 yuan / ton, higher than last week’s gasoline price 0.07% Domestic diesel price is 4935 yuan / ton, down from last week’s diesel price 2.15% 。
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: crude oil futures bottomed out this week, with international oil price lower than $40 / barrel. At 24:00 on the 14th, the price of refined oil market remained unchanged. The overall price of refined oil market remained stable this week, and the price of diesel oil fell slightly.
Industry chain: this week, the oil price is generally in a volatile market, with great volatility. OPEC’s production reduction countries have frequently made optimistic comments on deepening the production reduction, and Saudi Arabia has also announced an additional 1 million barrels / day of production reduction in June. However, the weak demand side of international crude oil has not been resolved, and the market inventory is still high.
Market: the international oil price is still below $40 / barrel. In the near future, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil is weak, and all manufacturers are selling at a high price. At present, the international oil price is at a low level, the refineries are supported by profits, the operating rate of domestic refineries is at a high level, and the supply of refined oil is increasing. At present, most of the diesel end users have resumed normal operation, the consumption of gasoline and diesel is relatively stable, and there is limited space to improve the demand end. However, gasoline consumption slightly increased due to the May Day holiday, but the demand consumption was still less than the supply increase. After entering the closed season in South China, there are some restrictions on the demand of diesel, and the performance of diesel market is weaker than that of gasoline.
3、 Future forecast
Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: the international crude oil inventory is high, the crude oil market price is under pressure in a short period of time, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment will continue to be below the floor price, and it is expected that the domestic refined oil market will be weak and stable.