According to statistics, the ex factory price of p-xylene rose slightly in May, the domestic price at the beginning of the month was 4000 yuan / ton, and the domestic PX market price at the end of the month was 4100 yuan / ton, with the price trend rising by 2.5%, down 45.33% year on year. The external price of PX rose, and the domestic PX market was highly dependent on the external market. The external price rise was a positive impact of the domestic price.

In recent years, the domestic market price trend of paraxylene rebounded slightly. The domestic PX operating rate is about 70%, the 600000 ton new petrochemical plant of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is put into operation, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical plant is stable, the first line of Fuhai Chuang plant is started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load, and Qilu Petrochemical plant is in full load operation The operation of petrochemical plant is stable, the petrochemical plant in Urumqi is about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price is warmer due to the sharp rise of crude oil price. In May, the international crude oil price soared, and the external price of PX rose slightly. As of 28, the closing price of Asia was 455-457 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 475-477 US dollars / ton CFR China. In recent years, the operation of PX units in Asia has been stable. As a whole, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. In May, the external closing price of PX rose by 15 US dollars / ton, while the domestic closing price rose by 15 US dollars / ton The market price of p-xylene increased slightly.

With the gradual recovery of European and American economy and the recovery of crude oil demand, the closing price of international crude oil price soared in May. As of the 28th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was 33.71 yuan / barrel. The price of Brent crude oil futures market rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was 36.03 U.S. dollars / barrel. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman communicated on Wednesday By telephone, the two sides agreed to coordinate closely on the OPEC + agreement between the Ministry of energy. The leaders of the two sides confirmed the importance of Jointly Implementing the OPEC + production reduction agreement reached in April. In addition, the impact of the increase in production of American refineries and the unexpected increase in inventory was diluted. The sharp rise in crude oil price drove the price of domestic petrochemical products higher and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market higher.

In May, the price trend of the downstream PTA market rose sharply, and the domestic PTA spot market rose unilaterally. As of May 29, the market average price was 3566.67 yuan / ton, up 8.37% from the beginning of the month, down 38.18% year on year. Crude oil continued to strengthen, its own device maintenance increased, and suppliers bought back the spot again. Under this impetus, PTA price center continued to move up. The operating rate of domestic PTA market was 87%, but the current social inventory was more than 3.5 million tons. In terms of processing fee, PTA processing fee has fluctuated between 700-800 yuan / ton since May. Such processing fee level is undoubtedly on the high side in the current stage of overcapacity. Influenced by the price rise of downstream PTA market, the domestic market price of p-xylene has increased slightly.

Chen Ling, an PX analyst of business agency, thinks that the recent sharp rise in crude oil price, the problem of “high inventory, high processing fee and high opening rate” of downstream PTA have not been fundamentally solved, and the recovery of domestic and foreign trade in downstream terminals is slow, and the order performance is not stable. At present, the purchase of raw materials remains rigid. If the follow-up orders cannot be followed up in time, the loom load can be reduced again in late June It is expected that the market price of p-xylene will maintain 4100 yuan / ton in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market rebounded steadily this week, with the average domestic price of about 3580 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 4.99% on a month on week basis, according to the data in the business club’s large list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: at present, the downstream demand is not strong, the transaction is general, the port inventory remains relatively high, but the oil price this week received four consecutive positive, driven by the cost, the domestic xylene price this week rose steadily, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 3550 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, it is expected that the demand for crude oil will be better for global enterprises to resume work, adding that the total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory will be greatly reduced, and the oil price will receive four consecutive positive results this week. At present, the international oil price shows signs of resistance near the high of nearly two months, so as to prevent the trend of shock and fall next week. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent rose 13.07%, Brent futures rose 13.21%, WTI futures rose 14.91% and Dubai futures rose 6.54%.

In the downstream, the TDI market fell slightly. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with tickets is 10300-10600 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanghai goods with tickets is 10600-10800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend, and pay close attention to the information guidance of the later stage of the factory and the actual market trading. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 468 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 486 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will rise slightly in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch thinks: in the short term, we can see the supply cost, OPEC + production reduction, total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the economic and trade situation between China and the United States, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will be subject to shock adjustment next week.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, the market of lithium hydroxide is running smoothly this week. By the end of 22 days, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 55666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 2.34% compared with that on April 22. On Tuesday, Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide offered 56000 yuan / ton, Shanghai oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide offered 58000 yuan / ton, Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide offered 53000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price is a single negotiation.

Industry chain: according to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the market of lithium carbonate this week (5.18-5.22) is weak and stable. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on May 22 was 41200 yuan / ton, down 0.96% compared with the beginning of the week; the average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China on May 22 was 45200 yuan / ton, down 1.31% compared with the beginning of the week. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 38000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 42000-48000 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream inquiry has increased slightly, but the new order transaction is limited, the market shipment has not improved significantly, and the demand side is still weak. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will be weak and stable in the short term.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 32 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 5 kinds of commodities with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are crude benzene (11.37%), chloroform (9.52%) and hydrogen peroxide (7.11%). There are 24 kinds of commodities with a decline in the aspect ratio, and the top three products are polysilicon (- 4.49%), light soda (- 3.75%) and aniline (- 3.60%). This week’s average was 0.74%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the market of upstream lithium carbonate is weak and stable in the near future, and the support of cost to lithium hydroxide is also weak. The demand of downstream is weak and the inquiry is relatively light. It is expected that the market of industrial lithium hydroxide will be weak and stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of lithium carbonate this week is weak and stable. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on May 22 was 41200 yuan / ton, down 0.96% compared with the beginning of the week; the average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China on May 22 was 45200 yuan / ton, down 1.31% compared with the beginning of the week. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 38000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 42000-48000 yuan / ton. On May 21, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 104.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 74.09% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 6.53% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry chain: according to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the market price of lithium hydroxide in the lower reaches of this week (5.18-5.22) is running smoothly. By the end of 22 days, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 55666.67 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week, down 2.34% compared with May 1, half a year as the cycle, down 17.73% year on year. In the short term, it is expected that the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be weak and stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 14 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on May 21, 2020, among which there is one kind of commodity with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities are crude benzene (8.51%), ethylene oxide (3.08%) and pure benzene (2.37%). There are 6 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were aniline (- 2.16%), propylene oxide (- 1.41%) and potassium nitrate (- 1.16%). The average price of this day is 0.17%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business club, the current downstream inquiry has increased slightly, but the new order transaction is limited, the market shipment has not improved significantly, and the demand side is still weak. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the cost side and mainstream market news.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the gasoline price has been running steadily this week, while the diesel price has declined slightly. The domestic gasoline price is 4540 yuan / ton, higher than last week’s gasoline price 0.07% Domestic diesel price is 4935 yuan / ton, down from last week’s diesel price 2.15% 。

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: crude oil futures bottomed out this week, with international oil price lower than $40 / barrel. At 24:00 on the 14th, the price of refined oil market remained unchanged. The overall price of refined oil market remained stable this week, and the price of diesel oil fell slightly.

Industry chain: this week, the oil price is generally in a volatile market, with great volatility. OPEC’s production reduction countries have frequently made optimistic comments on deepening the production reduction, and Saudi Arabia has also announced an additional 1 million barrels / day of production reduction in June. However, the weak demand side of international crude oil has not been resolved, and the market inventory is still high.

Market: the international oil price is still below $40 / barrel. In the near future, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil is weak, and all manufacturers are selling at a high price. At present, the international oil price is at a low level, the refineries are supported by profits, the operating rate of domestic refineries is at a high level, and the supply of refined oil is increasing. At present, most of the diesel end users have resumed normal operation, the consumption of gasoline and diesel is relatively stable, and there is limited space to improve the demand end. However, gasoline consumption slightly increased due to the May Day holiday, but the demand consumption was still less than the supply increase. After entering the closed season in South China, there are some restrictions on the demand of diesel, and the performance of diesel market is weaker than that of gasoline.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: the international crude oil inventory is high, the crude oil market price is under pressure in a short period of time, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment will continue to be below the floor price, and it is expected that the domestic refined oil market will be weak and stable.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week is 4333 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: at the beginning of the week, Shandong aldehyde Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM, and the ex factory price of POM (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, the price is the same as that of last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, and the ex factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. The quotation of POM manufacturers is stable.

Industry chain: upstream methanol situation, domestic methanol market this week rose in a narrow range. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the week is 1680 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market at the end of the week is 1727 yuan / ton, with weekly increase 2.83% , the price is higher than that of the same period last month 0.11% The price is lower than that of the same period last year 23.22% 。

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of POM in business association, due to the influence of raw material methanol, POM may be operated in a strong way.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week is 11000 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week is 11000 yuan / ton, which is stable.

Products: at present, the price of domestic activated carbon is temporarily stable, and the ex factory price of East China coconut shell water purification activated carbon is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the domestic activated carbon market is lack of favorable conditions to support, and the goods are mostly ordered.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the single order, the purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, the environmental protection policies boost the activated carbon market, and the performance of the activated carbon market is stable.

Forecast: the actual transaction of activated carbon market is still not ideal, the trading continues to be stalemate, and the delivery pace is relatively slow.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, the recent market of lithium carbonate is dominated by stable operation, and the quotations of some enterprises are slightly reduced. At present, the overall supply of lithium salt is relatively sufficient, the demand side performance is still poor, and the market trading atmosphere is general. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on May 8 was 41800 yuan / ton, down 0.24% compared with April 30. On May 8, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 46200 yuan / ton, down 1.07% compared with April 30. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 39000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 45000-48000 yuan / ton.

On May 8, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 106.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 73.71% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 8.08% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 8, 2020, among which there is one kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities are crude benzene (14.59%), phenol (4.93%) and aniline (4.35%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are styrene (- 1.22%), adipic acid (- 1.21%) and light soda ash (- 1.21%). The average price of this day is 0.57%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business association, at present, the market demand is not strong, and the downstream market is mainly just in need of purchase, and the transaction is relatively cold. It is expected that the market situation of lithium carbonate will be weak and stable in the short term.

Market Overview:

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province rose sharply during the May 1st period. At the beginning of this week, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 2000 yuan / ton. At the end of this week, the average price of dichloromethane was about 2200 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 10% in the week.

Market analysis:

Products: during the May 1st period, due to the high price of liquid chlorine for raw materials and the negative impact of the maintenance of some enterprises in East China of Shandong Province, the price of dichloromethane rose sharply, the enterprise’s inventory pressure was not great, the downstream purchase and stock up situation was acceptable, and the market mentality after the festival was poor, mainly to maintain stability. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2200-2250 yuan / ton, in South China about 3200 yuan / ton, and in East China about 1950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, affected by the increase of downstream replenishment and freight, the domestic methanol market price has recovered, at present, it is about 1727 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is high and volatile, and the market supply is well supported. At present, the quotation in North China is about 300-600 yuan / ton, and in East China is 700-850 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market continued to decline, the market trading was cold, and there was no obvious sign of improvement. At present, the price hovered around 15000 yuan / ton; the purchase of solvent and pharmaceutical pesticide industry was weak, and the price support for chloroform was insufficient.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, the operation rate of dichloromethane market is low at present, which is about 40-50% as a whole. The inventory pressure of enterprises is not high, but the demand of downstream market is not good, and the enterprises are on the edge of profit and loss. It is expected that the operation will be stable in a short time.

On May 6, the fluorite commodity index was 90.64, down 6.44 points from yesterday, 28.90% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and 84.19% higher than 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite continues to decline. As of 7 days, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2577.78 yuan / ton. In recent years, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant is relatively high, the mine and flotation plant in the site are gradually resumed, the supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is declining in recent years. For the purchase on demand in fluorite market, the situation of fluorite in the site is poor, and the price trend of fluorite market is declining. In the near future, the operation rate of downstream units is relatively low, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream terminal purchases on demand, resulting in a slight decline in market price. As of July 7, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2400-2600 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2400-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite continued to decline.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite fell. As of the 7th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9130 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant was generally, the demand for fluorite was normal, the supply of goods in the site was sufficient, and the price of fluorite continued to decline. In recent years, the sales of the automobile industry has been in a downturn, and the trend of the downstream refrigerant market is poor. The demand for the refrigerant has been declining. The special events abroad are serious. The export of the refrigerant terminal is not smooth, and it is mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level, and the demand for after-sales maintenance is weak. Overall, the domestic and foreign demand is not as expected. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is reduced, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the price is under pressure due to the drag of demand. However, the situation of market price or not is obvious. The mainstream price of R22 in domestic large enterprises is 15000-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of fluorite market continues to decline.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is weak, the supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the recent price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is falling. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may continue to decline slightly in the short term.