1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market rebounded steadily this week, with the average domestic price of about 3580 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 4.99% on a month on week basis, according to the data in the business club’s large list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: at present, the downstream demand is not strong, the transaction is general, the port inventory remains relatively high, but the oil price this week received four consecutive positive, driven by the cost, the domestic xylene price this week rose steadily, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 3550 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, it is expected that the demand for crude oil will be better for global enterprises to resume work, adding that the total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory will be greatly reduced, and the oil price will receive four consecutive positive results this week. At present, the international oil price shows signs of resistance near the high of nearly two months, so as to prevent the trend of shock and fall next week. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent rose 13.07%, Brent futures rose 13.21%, WTI futures rose 14.91% and Dubai futures rose 6.54%.

In the downstream, the TDI market fell slightly. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with tickets is 10300-10600 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanghai goods with tickets is 10600-10800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend, and pay close attention to the information guidance of the later stage of the factory and the actual market trading. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 468 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 486 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will rise slightly in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch thinks: in the short term, we can see the supply cost, OPEC + production reduction, total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the economic and trade situation between China and the United States, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will be subject to shock adjustment next week.