According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate remained high this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2840 yuan / ton, which was equal to the price of 2840 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 27.16%. The commodity index of ammonium nitrate on December 10 was 149.47, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 2.07% from 152.63 (2020-11-24), and increased by 93.19% from 77.37, the lowest point on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started normal operation, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the field was sufficient. Some manufacturers reported that the goods taking situation was general, and the price trend of manufacturers remained high. Recently, the supply of goods in the field was normal, the transportation was normal, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate was stable. Recently, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream procurement is on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal, and the prices of some manufacturers have dropped slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2300-2500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid rose sharply, with the weekend price of 2150 yuan / ton, and this week’s trend increased by 13.16%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2100 yuan / T; Shandong helitai quoted 2200 yuan / T. The quotation of Wenshui synthetic chemical industry is 1830 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site goods taking situation has improved. The price trend of nitric acid in the field has risen sharply. The high price of nitric acid is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market remains high.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, with the weekend price of 3216.67 yuan / ton, up 0.54% compared with 3200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The liquid ammonia plant started normal operation, the spot supply was slightly tight, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market rose sharply. From the basic point of view, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia market is mainly balanced, and some manufacturers’ devices are running stably. It is expected that the ammonia supply will be balanced in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the price trend of domestic liquid ammonia market will rise in the near future. Due to the production restriction in some regions such as Shanxi, the operating rate will drop, and the supply will bring some support. From the downstream point of view, in the current off-season of agricultural fertilizer, the terminal does not take delivery of goods, and there is no market in many places, which makes the rising trend of liquid ammonia difficult to maintain. The upstream prices have risen this week, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate remains high.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is normal. In addition, the production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer are normal, and the price trend of raw material market is rising. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is general, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may remain volatile in the future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 10, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in mainstream areas of China was around 390 yuan / ton, which was the same as a week ago; compared with December 1, the average price was increased by 4 yuan / ton, or 0.86%; compared with November 1, the average price was increased by 4 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.86%.

The low-end quotation of Da stable and small movable phosphate ore is up slightly

In the first ten days of December, China’s domestic phosphate ore market was stable and slightly upward. At the beginning of the month, the market was mainly in operation. Until July 7, some low-priced phosphate ores in Guizhou Province made a small increase in the ex factory price of 30% grade phosphate ore, with an increase range of 10-20 yuan / ton. The price concentration was close to the high level, and the difference between high and low prices was reduced. Most of the rest of the region phosphate ore market continued to operate stably.

At present, as of December 10, Guizhou Province: 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation reference 320-360 yuan / ton, the low-end price rose 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of December, 28% grade phosphate ore vehicle plate quotation reference 280-320 yuan / ton, Guizhou Xifeng phosphate ore mainly supplies 30% quality phosphate rock, at present, the phosphate mine continues to operate, the enterprise 30% phosphate rock car plate price 350 yuan / ton, the price continues to maintain stability until the end of the year 。 Guizhou Kaiyang Guanglong mining 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant quoted 320 yuan / ton, the price increased by 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. In Guangxi, the quotation of 28% phosphate rock pallet is 290-310 yuan / ton, and that of 30% phosphate rock is 330-350 yuan / ton.

In the downstream, from the beginning of December, although the electricity price in December in Yunnan increased by 1-2 points compared with that in November, the increase was not large, which was difficult to support the yellow phosphorus market price. At present, the yellow phosphorus market starts at a high level, and the quotation of yellow phosphorus enterprises in the field has been adjusted. The demand of downstream phosphoric acid market is poor, and the overall market trading atmosphere is general. Up to now, the mainstream price of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 15800 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 15800 yuan / ton. The mainstream price of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 15500 yuan / ton. The overall market is light, mainly traders wait and see.

Start low and maintain stable operation at the end of the year

At present, the year 2020 is coming to an end. The overall market of domestic phosphate ore is weak, the downstream demand is general, and the mine starts at a low level. The phosphorus ore Data Engineer of the business society predicts that by the end of 2020, China’s domestic phosphate ore market will be stable and the overall operation will be dominated.

Environmental problems will affect the demand of PS raw materials

Driven by healthy demand and declining production in the fourth quarter of 2020, the PS market is expected to experience tight supply in early 2021. However, uncertainty about the impact of the new coronavirus pandemic, new capacity in Asia and concerns about the environment may further put pressure on the market.

Consumer goods are the key to PS growth in Asia

Driven by the demand of China’s end users, the Asian PS market will begin to recover in the second half of 2020. China’s supply and demand dynamics will largely determine the market direction in 2021. The production capacity of consumer products will continue to grow, and the demand will maintain a good trend.

Under the control of Xinguan epidemic in China, more and more orders from other regions have been received by PS end users, which is mainly due to the strong growth of the refrigerator industry, which is expected to continue.

In addition, the soaring price of ABS may also lead to the increase of PS demand. According to global Proctor energy information data, the premium of CFR China ABS spot price over hips in November was about $600 / T, far higher than the premium range of $250-300 / T in the first half of 2020. As the price gap widens, sources expect more buyers to switch to PS to save costs, which will cause a shortage of supply.

However, given the great uncertainty of the current epidemic, further demand growth, both domestic and export, will depend on the global economic recovery.

With higher profit margins, producers will continue to produce at high opening rates. However, supply constraints are unlikely to ease in the first half of 2021 due to excess orders and the production line of DENKA Singapore of 200000 tons / year shut down in February.

It is estimated that 1 million tons / year of new production capacity will be put on line in 2021, including 300 thousand tons / year unit of SP chemicals and 400000 tons / year of Zhejiang Yisu Plastic Co., Ltd., but there is also the possibility of construction delay, which may limit supply growth and support the Asian market in the short term.

US economic growth novel coronavirus pneumonia

The decrease of supply and the rise of upstream price indicate that the US PS market will usher in a strong start in the first half of 2021. The closing of a production line in the fourth quarter led to tight supply, coupled with higher seasonal demand, which ended in 2020. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is expected to face some obstacles despite its support factors, but due to the uncertainty of the recovery of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The virus has a considerable impact on the economic growth of the United States, which is closely related to the demand for PS, because the slowdown of economic growth leads to the decline of consumption capacity, and consumer goods are the main application areas of PS.

On the positive side, if the styrene and benzene markets are more balanced as expected, U.S. producers are expected to see costs fall in the first quarter of 2021. In addition, the sources expect that the new styrene capacity in Asia will lower the price, which will help to reduce the production cost of PS.

According to the source, before the pandemic, PS market demand is expected to grow by 1.5-2%,. The contraction in supply caused by a US producer shutting down its next line will have a nominal impact.

“It is likely to affect only a few spot transactions that are already minimal,” the source said. It is more likely that PS pricing will continue to follow the seasonal demand of the upstream market. ”

Looking forward to the future, renewable and circular economy will continue to play a role on the basis of PS. Manufacturers in the United States and Europe will continue to vigorously promote the production of recycled materials.

European manufacturers want to add PS recycling solutions

As for the European PS market, it is expected that the opening of the first half of 2021 will be similar to that at the end of 2020.

In the past few years, the market interest in recycled materials has continued to grow, resulting in a decline in the demand for PS raw materials. But in 2020, the demand for white goods and online distribution will rise sharply, which will be greatly alleviated.

Recycling solutions will continue to be an important investment attraction for the market as public awareness of environmental issues continues to increase and the EU’s forthcoming one-off plastic ban will continue to drive demand for PS raw materials.

Tight supply at the end of 2020 supported prices, and the runaway demand in Asia in the fourth quarter led to a sharp rise in prices. Buyers in the market argue that tight supply will not last for a long time, attributing the situation at the end of 2020 to a number of plant overhauls and subsequent reductions in operating rates.

Exports are becoming a bigger target for European sellers and the market is likely to tighten further, with orders for hips in Asia reaching thousands of tons a month in 2021, according to one producer.

1、 Price trend

The price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. At the end of last year, the average price of calcium carbide increased from 372.00 yuan / week to 372.00 yuan / week. Overall, this week’s calcium carbide market rose, December 4 carbide commodity index was 98.52.

2、 Trend analysis

According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise this week: the price of carbide from oviganeng is 3730 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of carbide in Inner Mongolia and China Union is 3900 yuan / ton, which is 150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of calcium carbide in Xingping of Ningxia is 3650 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Overall, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 3600-3900 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 3700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 3600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 3900 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

From the calcium carbide upstream and downstream industry chain, upstream raw material market, orchid charcoal factory quotation rose this week. At the end of this week, the quotation of small materials is 780 yuan / ton, which is 80 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of medium materials is 830 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of large materials is 850 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. Upstream raw material prices rose, cost support is good, which has a positive impact on calcium carbide price.

Downstream market, PVC factory price rise this week. PVC price increased by 3.76% from 7987.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8287.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 16.60%. PVC prices rose this week, the market is good, downstream of calcium carbide purchasing enthusiasm increased, overall, PVC market this week has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of December, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The downstream PVC market rose sharply, and the downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid and early December.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of December 07, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 9066 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous day, the average price of domestic n-butanol decreased by 133 yuan / ton, or 1.45%; compared with December 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol was reduced by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.37%. Compared with November 1, the average price increased by 2654 yuan / ton, or 37.72%.

The market of n-butanol soared by 38.23% in November

In the first ten days of November, the domestic market of n-butanol showed a weak trend for several days. During this period, some factories slightly reduced the ex factory quotation of n-butanol. After the end of the first ten days, n-butanol downstream butyl alcohol users entered the market to replenish goods from September to October. Due to the shortage of spot supply of n-butanol, the price of n-butanol factory began to rise, with an increase range of 200-400 yuan / ton. Then in the middle and late ten days, the market of n-butanol entered a wide upward channel, and the maximum daily increase was around 500 yuan / ton. Until the 26th, the price of n-butanol rose to the highest in November, and the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was referred to 9100 yuan / T, and then the overall market was stable near the end of the month. By the end of the 30th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 9100 yuan / ton, up 2517 yuan / ton, or 38.23% per month, compared with November 1.

At the beginning of December, n-butanol fell slightly in high-level turbulence

On the first two days of December, the domestic n-butanol market as a whole continued to operate at a high and stable level. The factory inventory was low, and a small amount of spot goods were mainly used for old customers. The downstream just needed to purchase. On March 3 and 4, the market price of some n-butanol in Shandong increased by 200-400 yuan / T, and the low-end market was close to the high-end. On the 4th, a leading factory in Shandong Province lowered the mainstream price of n-butanol by 200 yuan / ton. On the 7th, some high quotation factories lowered the ex factory quotation of n-butanol again by 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, the market is in a downward trend.

As of December 07, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 9066 yuan / ton, which was 133 yuan / ton lower than the previous day, or 1.45% lower; compared with December 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol decreased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.37%. Compared with November 1, the average price increased by 2654 yuan / ton, or 37.72%.

Upstream, on December 4, the propylene market price in Shandong region rose slightly. According to the price chart of business agency, the price of propylene rose continuously in late November, increasing by more than 12%. At the end of the month, the price remained stable again. On the fourth day, some of them went up. At present, the market transaction is still between 7550 yuan / ton and 7900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 7650 yuan / ton and 7700 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock is small, the shipment situation is good.

In terms of crude oil, on December 4, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $46.26/barrel, up $0.62. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price to 49.25 U.S. dollars / barrel, up 0.54 dollars. Oil prices continued to rise on Friday, mainly due to rising expectations of the US stimulus plan and vaccines.

Weak supply and demand support, short-term hard demand transactions

At present, n-butanol market new single negotiation atmosphere is general, the primary market spot inventory is low. The supply side of the market is flat, and the downstream buyers tend to weaken, so they can buy as soon as they are used, and they are cautious in hoarding. It is expected that the n-butanol market will just need to be closed in the short term, and the negotiation may be on the low side, and the overall fluctuation space of the market will be limited.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate this week is 6150.00 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic light potassium carbonate is 6225.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.22%. The current price is up 1.22% month on month, and the current price is down 2.35% compared with last year.

This week, the domestic potash market rose, the supply was tight, and the quantity of goods delivered from various regions was not large. Downstream factories took more goods on demand to curb the price rise, and the price rose slightly. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the mainstream factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate in China is about 5900-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

On December 4, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 2020 yuan / ton, and the quotation is up by 70 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2300 yuan / T potassium chloride, which was stable temporarily. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Potassium chloride market continued to rise, can give potassium carbonate a certain cost support.

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the domestic potassium chloride price is on the upward trend in the near future, which gives support to the cost of potassium carbonate, but the downstream demand for raw materials is not high. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

According to the current daily price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province, the average price of formaldehyde rose by 1.67% on a year-on-year basis, which was 1.67% higher than that of the current commodity price in Shandong Province.

In recent years, the domestic market price of formaldehyde showed a downward trend. As of December 3, the mainstream factory quotation in Central China was about 11430 yuan / ton, that of mainstream manufacturers in North China was 950 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 1198 yuan / ton. Linyi Yinhe formaldehyde production capacity is 120000 tons / year, and the formaldehyde plant is normal, with a daily output of 200 tons. Recently, the formaldehyde plant in Shandong Province has been in normal operation. Under the control of environmental protection in Henan Province, some enterprises started their business in a narrow range; on the whole, the atmosphere of trading on the floor was relatively light, the actual transaction was general, and the formaldehyde market continued to decline.

Situation of upstream methanol: the transaction price of Shandong methanol in Lubei market is 1980-2000 yuan / ton, which is delivered to spot exchange. The transaction is general, and the freight is slightly increased. The market price of methanol in the south of Shandong Province has temporarily stabilized at around 2000-2010 yuan / ton, and Linyi has received the local mainstream goods of 2000 yuan / ton and delivered them to the place without tax. The quoted price of logistics goods is around 1950 yuan / ton. The transaction volume of methanol market in central Shandong was stable to 2150 yuan / ton, while that of peripheral goods was stable to 1990-2000 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the inventory of traditional downstream wood board enterprises is higher, the demand for formaldehyde is weakened, the field is cold and clean, and the support of demand side is general. Formaldehyde market is going down all the way.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol has stopped falling and stabilized. Under the condition of weak cost support, the formaldehyde factory’s mentality is empty. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business society expect that the formaldehyde price in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the near future.

1、 Price data

As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic hydrotreating and hydrotreating naphtha was 4917.50 yuan / ton, up 2.82% from 4782.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of hydrotreated naphtha was about 5000 yuan / ton.

The naphtha commodity index on November 27 was 60.69, up 0.25 points compared with yesterday, 40.86% lower than 102.62 points (2012-09-24), and 43.68% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Naphtha prices continue to rise this week, low inventory, no pressure to ship.

Upstream: in November, the international oil price continued to rise, and has been rising for four consecutive weeks. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation. WTI crude oil prices rose 7.76% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 6.20%.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic toluene market fluctuated slightly and rose this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3580 yuan / ton, up 1.13% month on month. The domestic xylene market showed a volatile trend this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3640 yuan / ton, up 0.28% month on month. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 545 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 563 US dollars / ton CFR China.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 47th week of 2020 (11.23-11.27), among which there are 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the total commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities of increase are liquefied natural gas (8.51%), WTI crude oil (7.76%) and Brent crude oil (6.29%). There were two kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products were petroleum coke (- 5.88%) and methanol (- 0.35%). This week, the average rise and fall was 2.51%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of the business agency believe that the sharp rise in international crude oil has supported the cost of naphtha. At present, the inventory of refineries is low and the pressure on shipment is not great. It is expected that the price of hydrotreated naphtha in the near future will rise steadily, with the price of about 5100 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price trend of cryolite market this week has been stable, with the average price of 5800 yuan / ton in Henan at the weekend, and the price was stable during the week, down 4.92% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic cryolite price trend is stable. As of the 29th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 5500-6800 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 5000-6200 yuan / ton. In terms of the installation situation of domestic enterprises, Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. has a production capacity of 30000 tons / year, and the plant has started to operate about 70% of the plant. Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. has a full plant load and starts normal operation. Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. has an annual capacity of 40000 tons of cryolite. The plant is in normal operation, and there is no plan to stop the train. At present, the cryolite market is in sufficient stock, and the downstream demand is general. Enterprises mainly talk about a single one, and the transaction is OK.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite manufacturers started operation normally, the on-site supply of goods was sufficient, the downstream demand was insufficient, and the fluorite market was in shock operation. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, at present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to move down, the market demand is strong, and the supply is oriented well. It is expected that the market will be sorted up in the future.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the cryolite manufacturers are operating normally, the market supply is sufficient, there is no obvious fluctuation in demand, the market transaction is general, the downstream electrolytic aluminum is not enough to support the cryolite industry, and the short-term cryolite market continues to run weakly and stably, with specific attention to the market demand.

Since the middle of November, the price of natural rubber has stabilized and rebounded, and the position gradually transits to the contract in May, and the market remains stable. At present, natural rubber fundamentals remain healthy as a whole, which has a certain supporting effect on the price.

macroscopic

Recently, the process of power transition in the United States has started, and Biden will take office in the White House on January 20, 2021. An important short-term uncertainty has been eliminated. At present, the policy orientation and personnel arrangement announced by Biden team are more or less the shadow of the Obama era. The new Biden administration will be the successor and successor of the Obama administration at least in the early stage, with strong policy predictability, and the loose monetary policy environment of the Federal Reserve will continue at least until the third quarter of next year.

At present, Sino US relations are crucial to the recovery of world economic growth. Biden team believes that it is impractical and counterproductive to fully decouple from China. This is consistent with the view of the Chinese government. Sino US relations are likely to turn into a situation of both competition and cooperation, which will be milder than in the trump period, which is conducive to the recovery of the world economy after the epidemic. However, it is not appropriate to have too much extravagant expectation on Sino US relations. The new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation is exactly the government’s initiative response to the challenges.

supply

Yunnan, the main natural rubber production area in China, will gradually enter the cutting stop period, and Hainan will also enter the cutting stop period in about one month. At present, the planting area of rubber producing areas in China is relatively stable. Due to the early epidemic situation, price and weather factors, the overall cutting rate is low this year.

In addition to the yield factor, the glue structure also faces some adjustments. The new concentrated latex project of Yunnan manganese Rubber Co., Ltd. was completed and put into operation, with an investment of 710 million yuan in the first phase, with an annual production capacity of 20000 tons of concentrated latex, 2000 tons of clear rubber, 150000 beds of latex pads and 1 million latex pillows per year. Part of the rubber water in Yunnan production area must be diverted to make latex, which has an impact on the production of all latex delivery products.

Affected by the shortage of labor and transportation bottleneck caused by weather and epidemic situation, the annual output of the main production areas in Southeast Asia is more likely to decline. According to the statistical data of the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC), the global cumulative production of natural rubber from January to September in 2020 is 7.816 million tons, which is about 600000 tons lower than that in the same period of 2019; from January to September of 2020, the cumulative production of natural rubber in China is 426000 tons, which is 104000 tons lower than that in the same period of 2019, with a decrease rate of 20%.

However, more than 2000 workers in the world’s largest rubber glove supplier in Malaysia have been confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus. The Malaysian government ordered the closure of 28 factories and dormitories affiliated to the company step by step and implemented isolation and virus screening. At present, the main production areas of Southeast Asia are in the period of seasonal high yield, and the repeated epidemic situation has cast a shadow on the industry.

stock

According to the data released in the previous period, as of November 20, the natural rubber inventory of the exchange was 142000 tons, with a quarter on month decrease of 119000 tons, or 45%. With the expiration of the contract in November, the inventory of the new rubber warehouse receipt after the delivery of the old rubber was at the low level in the past years, and the delivery products were less, which continued to affect the futures price.

On November 23, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued the business guidelines for the trading of natural rubber extended warehouse receipts (for Trial Implementation). The extended warehouse receipts refer to the natural rubber warehouse receipts issued by the designated delivery warehouse recognized by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which have exceeded the validity period of the standard warehouse receipts and meet the time limit recognized by the exchange. The development of extended warehouse receipt business will further enrich the ability of the exchange to serve the real economy and enhance the pricing authority of the exchange. However, on the other hand, it may weaken the disturbance weight of factors such as insufficient delivery on the price.

In the spot market, the rubber inventory in Qingdao has maintained a downward trend in the near future, and the inventory pressure at the spot side has slightly eased, but the inventory de stocking process may not be smooth sailing.

demand

The national Standing Committee announced in mid November that the strategy of expanding domestic demand should be implemented to further promote consumption. In terms of automobiles, all localities will be encouraged to increase the number plate index. We will carry out a new round of automobile going to the countryside and exchanging old cars for new ones. We will encourage rural residents in areas where conditions permit to buy trucks of 3.5 tons or less and passenger cars with displacement of 1.6 liters or less. We will also give subsidies to residents who have eliminated the emission standards of National III or below and purchased new cars. In the new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation, policy support is conducive to the release of demand. However, in the international aspect, due to some bottleneck problems in transportation, tire export may be affected in the short term.

Statistics show that the operating rate of domestic semi steel tire manufacturers last week was 71.19%, and that of all steel tire manufacturers was 74.04%. The overall situation was relatively stable, and the demand remained stable.

To sum up, at present, the short-term uncertainty on the macro level is basically eliminated, the phenomenon of output decline and glue structure adjustment at the supply side, domestic policy support to promote automobile consumption at the demand side, the overall situation of the fundamentals is relatively healthy, and the rubber price will still be supported.