This week, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated in a narrow range, but traders had strong expectations for the butadiene market after the festival. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 6056 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 6051 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 0.09% in the week, 21.93% month on month, and 22.16% year-on-year.

The domestic butadiene market is dominated by small consolidation. With the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the automobile transportation capacity of the market is limited, and the spot inventory of downstream raw materials is relatively abundant, so the current spot trading atmosphere is relatively cold. In view of the relatively concentrated overhaul of butadiene and downstream industries after the festival, most businesses have stronger expectations for the market after the festival, and there is also a demand for long-term sources of goods in the downstream. Therefore, the atmosphere of long-term sources of goods is on the rise in the later part of this week, bringing a certain impetus to the spot market. However, in the external market, we heard that the transaction price of Southeast Asian goods was not high, and some goods from Taiwan were bidding, so the support of market news to the market was limited.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s butadiene supply price was stable at 6100 yuan / ton in the cycle; North Huajin’s 78 tons of goods were exported through competitive bidding on February 1, with the base price of 6010 yuan / ton, the average transaction price of reference yuan / ton, and the transaction volume of 78 tons; Shenhua Ningmei’s butadiene was exported normally, and the price was stable at 5650 yuan / ton as of February 4 Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 T / a butadiene plant operates stably, and the main source of goods is self use and mutual supply.

External market: as of the close on February 5, the external price of butadiene in Asia fell: FOB South Korea closed at US $715-725 / T, CFR China closed at US $755-765 / T, both falling by US $20 / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $555-565 / T, up US $10 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at EUR 595-605 / T, stable.

In the future, most businesses based on the supply side news after the festival, have strong expectations for the forward market, which will boost the spot market. Business community butadiene analysts expect that after the festival, the domestic butadiene market is expected to rise in a narrow range.

On February 7, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there were 0 kinds of commodities that rose, 0 kinds of commodities that fell, and 7 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. Stable products include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, R22, R134a, aluminum fluoride, cryolite and chloroform.

On February 7, the price trend of fluorine chemical raw material market was temporarily stable, with the price of raw material fluorite at 2741.11 yuan / ton. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started to work normally, and some mines and flotation plants in the plant were shut down, resulting in the shortage of fluorite supply in the plant. However, the downstream market has risen recently, and the fluorite price has been affected and gone up. As of July 7, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

In the near future, the market trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is general, the operating rate remains low, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the reduction of supply in the market, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. As of July 7, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10577.78 yuan / ton. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has gone up, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprises reflect that the hydrofluoric acid in the market is now available The market of hydrofluoric acid is still bullish. Chen Ling, an analyst of business community, believes that the market of hydrofluoric acid may be slightly higher.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price trend of trichloromethane in Shandong is weak. The downstream market is in the off-season as a whole, and the demand for trichloromethane is poor. With the completion of goods preparation in the downstream market, the trichloromethane market continues to decline. At present, the starting of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipment situation of enterprises is flat. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the logistics transportation is limited to a certain extent, and the enterprises bid for shipment in order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2250-2350 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerants R22 and R134a is temporarily stable, the raw material chloroform continues to be weak, the support of cost side is weakened, the downstream goods preparation is finished, the traders continue to withdraw from the market, the demand side continues to decline, and the market center moves down. Due to the higher price of hydrofluoric acid, the affected price of refrigerants rises slightly. Refrigerant R134a prices rose slightly, the market is strong operation. Near the end of the year, the downstream construction continued to decline, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market rose slightly.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 3083.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3050.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 33.33 yuan / ton, or 1.08%, up 9.32% over the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell this week, with the commodity index of 79.91 on February 5.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: orveganen’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 3250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 3100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 2800 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was low and consolidated this week. The quotation of small material this weekend is 890 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of medium material this weekend is 980 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of large material this weekend is 980 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices rose this week. The price of PVC dropped from 7175.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.05%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 6.42%. This week, PVC prices rose slightly, the market is good, downstream calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm is normal, overall, this week’s PVC market has a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of February, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials is low and the cost of calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers have normal purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide, but the output of calcium carbide has risen, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle of February.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 5, the comprehensive price of PC market was 20833.33 yuan / ton. This week, the PC market kept rising, and the overall market was on the rise. Compared with the same period last month, the price of PC market increased by 10.62%, with an increase of 2000 yuan / ton. Near the Spring Festival, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the traders are bullish. In the short term, the domestic PC market center of gravity remains high, Gains slowed down consolidation operation.

This week, the price of PC market went up, the focus of negotiation continued to rise, and the rise of dual raw materials further promoted the price rise of PC. near the Spring Festival, most enterprises have started the holiday mode, and the manufacturers have stopped production. At present, the supply side is obviously tight, the supplier’s quotation is mainly high, the downstream demand is limited, the operation is flat and stable, the number of actual orders is limited, and the focus of upstream raw materials is high At present, the price of COSCO 2085 in Yuyao area is 22500 yuan / ton, the upstream bisphenol a market is high, the supply of spot goods is tight, the focus of market negotiation is stable, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the reference negotiation is around 19000-19300 yuan / ton.

On February 4, the PC commodity index was 86.83, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.11% from 126.05 (2017-12-18), the highest point in the cycle, and up 70.79% from 50.84, the lowest point on May 7, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

From mid January to early February, the price of bisphenol a continued to run at a high level, the price of downstream PC continued to rise, and the price of bisphenol a continued to rise, which formed a certain pressure on the PC cost side. In early February, the rising trend slowed down, the supply side was tight, and the shipment was stable. The reference price of bisphenol A was 19200-19500 yuan / ton. Maintain the early trend in the short term.

On February 4, the commodity index of bisphenol A was 184.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.52% from 187.32 (2020-12-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 155.90% from 72.09, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to from March 1, 2020 to now)

Business community PC analysts believe: in the short term, the focus of the domestic PC market remains high, and the rising trend slows down. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business PC analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

The reporter of futures daily learned that up to now, the reality of methanol is stronger, the expectation is weaker, the coastal area is stronger, and the inland is weaker. In the short term, the high cost of methanol at home and abroad, the import is tight, the rigid demand is maintained, and the inventory is removed are still the factors supporting the reality.

According to Hu Xin, an analyst of Yide futures, methanol imports showed a tight trend from January to February 2021, and methanol inventories in coastal areas and the mainland continued to decline. From the perspective of the mainland, the olefin production started at a high level, maintaining the just needed procurement. “The comprehensive start-up in the downstream decreased slightly, but the import was inverted, and the downstream olefin profits recovered more.” Fu De of Ningbo will restart this week, and salt lake of Qinghai will restart on February 8, Hu said.

“From the perspective of methanol port market, the upstream and midstream went to the reservoir last week, and the downstream replenished the reservoir.” Hu Xin said that the coastal unloading volume is only 120000-130000 tons, but it is expected that there will be concentrated arrivals at the end of the month. In addition, due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign countries, there are expected to be more coastal re exports.

Hu Xin believes that multiple factors in the short term will still support methanol reality. However, in the medium term, the restart of domestic and foreign gas head plants and the investment of new methanol production capacity will gradually materialize, and the supply pressure of the mainland will increase significantly at that time.

“In the later stage, the market needs to continue to pay attention to the changes of coastal and inland inventory data to see whether it can confirm the expectation of weakening fundamentals.” He said that in the short term, combined with the atmosphere of chemical products, it is still dominated by oscillatory operation, but in the medium term, it is still weak thinking, focusing on short selling when the price is above 2350 yuan / ton and anti arbitrage opportunities when the price is 5-9 yuan.

On February 1, international oil prices rose sharply, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising more than 2%. Data showed that the settlement price of WTI crude oil in the United States was $53.55/barrel, up $1.35. Brent crude oil futures settlement price at 56.35 U.S. dollars / barrel or 2.59%, or 1.31 U.S. dollars or 2.34%. Due to the decline of crude oil inventory in the United States, the effective production reduction continuously promoted by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) and the rising fuel demand caused by the snowstorm in the northeast of the United States, many favorable factors weakened the impact of the epidemic in the short term, and the market rose significantly on Monday.

First of all, the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories is the direct reason for the rise in oil prices. Although the data released last week did not give a strong boost to oil prices, mainly due to the impact of epidemic concerns, there are signs that crude oil inventories may decline again this week, which brings more benefits to the market. The data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) the previous week showed that the US crude oil inventory may decline again in the week of January 22 China’s commercial crude oil inventories fell 9.9 million barrels to 476.7 million barrels, while analysts expected an increase of 430000 barrels.

Analysts’ judgment is mainly due to the impact of cold weather brought by snowstorms in the United States, and the rapid rise in fuel demand has significantly supported oil prices. The northeast of the United States is suffering from a strong winter blizzard, which mainly affects a large area from Pennsylvania to New England, and has a serious impact on New York City and other major urban centers. Therefore, the demand for fuel in winter suddenly rises when the weather turns cold, and the inventory in Cushing area of the United States is expected to continue to decline.

In addition, at present, the effect of OPEC + production reduction policy is remarkable, and the implementation rate of production reduction is high. OPEC + has maintained a high implementation rate of production reduction since December last year, and OPEC’s production growth in January was less than expected. News shows that OPEC + production reduction implementation rate in December 2020 is 99%. Among them, the implementation rates of OPEC and its allies in December 2020 are 103% and 93% respectively, with Saudi Arabia playing the most obvious role. Russia’s oil and condensate production in January increased by 120000 B / D to 10160000 B / D compared with the previous month. Russia once said that it would increase production by 125000 B / D in January. Therefore, the increase rate in this month is generally in line with the expectation, but lower than the increase scale in the first half of January.

According to the business community, at present, crude oil is still in the state of long short game. Under the background that the epidemic trend has not yet been reversed, it may be difficult for oil prices to have a big market under this restriction. Many countries are still implementing restrictive measures, especially in the aviation field, which is seriously hit. The demand for aviation fuel is still difficult to improve in the short term. At the same time, the extreme cold weather in the United States in winter will continue to boost the demand for heating fuel oil. The supply side is mainly rebalancing, OPEC + production reduction is continuing, and Libya’s production is also declining, which will balance the risks of the supply side. However, the rise of shale oil production in the United States is still the main uncertain factor of future crude oil supply. Recent data show that the number of active oil and gas rigs in U.S. energy companies has increased for 10 weeks in a row, and the increase of crude oil production in the United States is expected to rise significantly Wen. On the whole, the oil price may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment in the near future. If vaccination can speed up and the virus inhibition efficiency is obvious, there is a greater probability that the oil price will continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, pure benzene fell first and then rose this week, and the overall price rose compared with last week. On January 24, the price of pure benzene was 4180-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4490 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (January 31), the price of pure benzene was 4330-4800 yuan / ton (average price was 4626 yuan / ton), up 136 yuan / ton or 3.03% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised by 150 yuan / ton to 4800 yuan / ton. Due to the impact of public health events and the impact of low price hydrogenated benzene in northern China, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, and the North South arbitrage window opened. The inflow of low-cost goods in North China, coupled with the reduction of logistics in the early spring festival, led to the rebound of pure benzene market price. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port decreased by about 2000 tons compared with last week. The port’s pick-up was limited, and the inventory decline was small.

In terms of external market, the range of external market fluctuated in a narrow range this week. On Friday (January 29), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 659 US dollars / ton, up 3.33 US dollars / ton or 0.51% compared with January 22, and the reference price of import in East China was 662.5 US dollars / ton, up 11 US dollars / ton or 1.69% compared with January 22.

In terms of crude oil, the news of Iraq’s decision to make compensatory production cuts at the beginning of this week supported the crude oil market, but the epidemic situation was still severe, curbing the demand of the crude oil market. On January 22, Brent fell 0.095 USD / barrel, or 0.17%; WTI fell 0.19 USD / barrel, or 0.36%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene rebounded, showing an overall upward performance. On Friday (January 29), the price of sample enterprises was 6883.33 yuan / ton, up 66.66 yuan / ton or 0.98% compared with last Friday, and down 4.84% compared with the same period last year. This week, the average operating rate of domestic styrene plants rose to 82.66% from 78.97% last week, up 3.69%. At present, the profit margin of styrene is good, and the cost support is still weak. The downstream still keeps considerable profits, and the market is expected to reserve some goods before the Spring Festival.

Aniline: the capacity of some aniline plants is restored, Jiangsu Fuqiang is expected to ship, and the market supply may increase in the later stage, so the operators are cautious. This week aniline Market Stability consolidation. On January 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7800-7900 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, the price of aniline was 8000-8100 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last week.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market is not good enough, and there is great upward pressure, but the price is still high and volatile. Continue to pay attention to the US fiscal stimulus plan, global COVID-19 and OPEC+ related news on promoting production reduction.

Downstream: downstream enterprises of styrene mainly digest rigid demand contracts and pre low orders, and the demand for spot goods is low. In addition, the downstream production has been reduced before the festival, and there is great uncertainty about returning to the market after the festival, so the demand for styrene may further weaken.

Ningbo Zhongjin delayed the restart time, and the market supply is expected to decrease by the end of February. Near the Spring Festival, some downstream terminals have been shut down one after another, and the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is on the high side, so the demand for pure benzene is weakening. Benzene and its downstream are expected to enter consolidation period next week, and the price is expected to be relatively stable. Continue to pay attention to the downstream procurement situation, the trend of pure benzene plant, crude oil, external market and styrene.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, as of January 29, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14000 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous day, and decreased by 2.33% compared with 14333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 22.94% compared with the same period last year.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, as of January 29, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 19166.67 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, and increased by 12.38% compared with 17500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and decreased by 15.71% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22, on January 29, the price trend of refrigerant R22 was stable, and the market was stable and weak. Chloroform continued to decline, with a decrease of 31.51% in the month. The support of cost side was weakened, combined with the end of preparation of downstream products a year ago. Traders continued to withdraw from the market. The demand side continued to decline, the market center moved down, and the bearish sentiment of the industry was too much. At present, R22 market quotation was around 13500-15000 yuan / ton, Shandong quotation was about 14000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation was about 14000-15000 yuan / ton The quoted price in Hunan is about 14000-14500 / T, and that in Shanghai is about 14000 yuan / T. The short-term price is stable.

R134a, January 29 refrigerant R134a price trend is stable, stable in strong operation. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, with a rise of 7.76% in the month. The cost support was strong, but the demand was weak in the off-season. The acceptance of the recent price rise of R134a was limited, and the downstream construction continued to decline near the end of the year. At the same time, the power rationing and shutdown in some regions reduced the demand. At present, the quotation of R134a market is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / T, Shandong is about 20000 yuan / T, and Zhejiang is about 20000 yuan / T The quotation is about 19000-21500 / T, Hunan 20500-21000 / T, Jiangsu 22000 / T and Shanghai 20000 yuan / T. The short-term price is stable.

Hydrofluoric acid as raw material. On January 28, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10000-10500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price trend of on-site merchants rose slightly. Domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers had a general operating rate, and the supply of on-site goods was slightly tight. Affected by the rising price of fluorite, but the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was general, and on-site purchase was mainly on demand. It is expected that the on-site price will rise slightly in the later stage High.

Trichloromethane. In January, the market of trichloromethane in Shandong was negative, and the price of trichloromethane fell sharply. As of January 28, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 2500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 31.51% in the month. At present, the completion of goods preparation in the downstream market of chloroform market is relatively high, and the demand for chloroform is relatively weak. In addition, the price of raw materials in the upstream is declining, which leads to a sharp drop in the price of chloroform. It is expected that the market of chloroform will be weak in a short period of time.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business community, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream users will have holidays and work stoppages, and the demand will gradually stagnate. Some refrigerant enterprises will close their orders and stop reporting. The main supply order will not be much discussed. It is expected that the refrigerant price will be stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 29, the quotation of pet water bottle manufacturers was 5833.33 yuan / ton. This week, the market of PET bottle chips was stable, and the price did not change significantly. Near the Spring Festival holiday, most enterprises entered the holiday mode and took orders sporadically. Now the price range of mainstream manufacturers is around 5800-5900 yuan / ton, and the trading atmosphere is general.

This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip market is running smoothly, the cost support is general, the inventory is low, the shipment is smooth, the overall market negotiation focus is stable, and the transaction atmosphere is flat. Near the Spring Festival, workers have a holiday one after another, and the operating rate has decreased. The polyester bottle chip market just needs capital to move goods, and the downstream demand is poor. Most enterprises have entered the holiday mode, mainly sporadic orders.

PTA operation in the upstream was stable and weak this week, market operation rate was stable, ethylene glycol in the upstream was stable and rising, the negotiation center was on the high side, and the cost side support of polyester bottle chip was general.

On January 28, the rubber and plastic index was 710 points, flat with yesterday, down 33.02% from the highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14) in the cycle, and up 34.47% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community pet analysts believe that: in the short term, the pet market will maintain a stable operation. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business pet analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

Recently, the domestic market of cyclohexanone is mainly on the lookout. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of January 28, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 7033 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 0.72% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%. Pure benzene runs horizontally, the cost side support is relatively stable, downstream just need to purchase mainly, logistics and transportation rise, the market is stable, and the transaction is light.

Region, price

East China: 7600-7700 yuan / ton, cash delivery

South China: 7750-7850 yuan / ton, cash delivery of vehicle

Shandong area: 7400-7500 yuan / ton, the whole vehicle is delivered in cash

The cost is relatively stable, the factory has no inventory pressure for the time being, and the downstream purchases on demand. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expect that the market of cyclohexanone will be stable in the short term.