In October, dichloromethane rose first and then fell. In the first half of the month, on the one hand, the market bullish atmosphere was driven by the rise of the international energy market. In the first half of the month, the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine rose sharply, supported by the cost and bullish atmosphere; On the other hand, the impact of domestic dual control policy on the commencement of methane chloride has not ended. The unexpected shutdown of No. 1 plant in Jiangsu has pushed the price of dichloromethane all the way up. In the middle and late October, with the rise and fall of domestic raw material prices and the downstream resistance to the high price of dichloromethane, the price of dichloromethane gradually returned, but there was still a significant increase at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 5177 yuan / ton at the beginning of October and 6025 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 16.23% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month; The price peak in the month was 8587 yuan / ton on the 18th, up 65.86% from the beginning of the month.

List of commencement of domestic methane chloride plant in October

In October, the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine rose first and then fell, and the cost support in the early stage was weak in the later stage. According to the business agency, as of October 31, the price of methanol was 3350 yuan / ton, down 7.27% from 3612 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine in tank cars in Shandong is about 2000 yuan / ton, up 17.65% from 1700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and down 51.22% from the highest point of 4100 yuan / ton in the month.

Future forecast: according to the dichloromethane analysts of business society, although the start-up of methane chloride unit has rebounded slightly, it remains low. There is no pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane, but the demand is weak at high prices, coupled with the current decline in cost; On the whole, the price rise of dichloromethane is weak in the short term.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (November 1): 20033.33 yuan / ton

On November 1, the melamine market fell, down 1.48% compared with last Friday, up 15.80% compared with October 1, and up 50.63% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the upstream urea price has fallen sharply, the cost support is loose, and the export demand is still supported to some extent, but the domestic trade demand is poor, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market is weak.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.

The high price of acetic anhydride fell in October

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply in October. Due to the sharp decline in the price of raw materials in October, and the price of acetic anhydride hit a record high in the cycle on September 28, the price of acetic anhydride was falsely high in September, the price of acetic anhydride in October was at high risk, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in October. As of October 29, the price of acetic anhydride was 12500.00 yuan / ton, down 16.39% from 14950.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1). The price of acetic anhydride fell sharply in October, and the overall acetic anhydride market is still strong.

The market of raw material acetic acid fell sharply

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic acid plummeted in October, and the price of acetic acid plummeted all the way after the acetic acid commodity index hit a record high of 239.42 points in the cycle from September 27, 2021 (Note: the cycle refers to September 1, 2011 to now). As of October 29, the quotation of acetic acid was 6760 yuan / ton, down 24.38% from 8940 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with September 27, the price of acetic acid decreased by 25.30%. The price of acetic acid plummeted by a quarter in October, and the acetic acid Market weakened in October. As can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart, the decline of acetic acid slowed down and showed an upward trend at the end of October. In the future, the price of acetic acid may be difficult to continue to decline.

Methanol prices rose first and then fell

According to the monitoring data of the business society, the methanol price first rose and then fell in October. Affected by the rise and fall of the price of power coal, the methanol price first rose and then fell in October, and the methanol price fell sharply in late October. Uncertain factors exist in future coal price, power supply and transportation, and the short-term domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out. Methanol has a certain negative impact on the price of acetic anhydride, and the downward pressure is limited.

Market overview and future forecast

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business agency, acetic anhydride fell sharply in October due to the sharp decline in the price of raw material acetic acid, but the price decline of acetic anhydride was limited due to the low start-up and limited inventory of acetic anhydride enterprises; With the national macro-control, the sharp decline in coal prices stimulated the downstream industrial chain to follow the decline, the prices of acetic acid and methanol fell sharply, and the price of acetic anhydride also fell sharply due to the continuous decline in the price of raw materials. By the end of October, the price of acetic acid had stabilized, and acetic acid enterprises had plans to stop production. There was great pressure on the future rise of acetic acid. Acetic anhydride enterprises also had plans to stop for maintenance in early November. The supply of low-level acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure on the future rise of acetic anhydride increased. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will hit the bottom and rebound in the future, and the price of acetic anhydride will rise in shock.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of October 28, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8866 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on October 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 7733 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1133 yuan / ton, or 14.66%.

In early October, during the National Day holiday, the domestic n-propanol market was calm, the downstream purchase basically ended before the festival, and returned after the festival. The domestic n-propanol market was weak as a whole, and the market trading was cold. On the 8th, the price of n-propanol factory in Shandong was adjusted slightly downward, and the ex factory price of n-propanol was reduced by about 200 yuan / ton. Under the guidance of the energy conservation and dual control policy in September, The downstream start-up decreased, the recovery after the festival was slow, the demand side support was weak, and the n-propanol was weak. Until the 14th, the n-propanol market in Shandong recovered, and the quotation of the operator increased slightly. As of the 15th, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol was 7733 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that at the beginning of the month.

In late October, the plant of n-propanol in Shandong was shut down for maintenance. The on-site supply of n-propanol was tight. Under the low inventory, the market price of n-propanol continued to rise. Near the end of the month, the on-site spot supply of n-propanol continued to decrease and the inventory was low. The industry has no supply pressure, and the price of n-propanol in the spot market has increased. At present, as of October 28, the average price of domestic n-propanol is 8866 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 14.66%. Local dealers still have reservations about the price. The price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external ethylene market showed an overall upward trend in October. As can be seen from the above figure, ethylene has been rising for four weeks, and the ethylene market price in Asia has continued to rise. As of the 26th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1196-1206 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1111-1121 / T. European ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 26th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1252-1264 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1170-1178 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States rose. As of the 26th, the price was 790-807 yuan / ton. Throughout October, the overall demand of the external ethylene market was good, the market trading atmosphere was active, and the market continued to rise.

Internationally, on October 27, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $82.66/barrel, down US $1.99 or 2.40%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.87/barrel, down US $1.78 or 2.07%. A report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week. In addition, there are rumors that Iran’s nuclear negotiations may restart and the high oil price will be corrected.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

In the short term, the supply side of the domestic n-propanol market is tight and has not improved much. Analysts of the business agency believe that the domestic n-propanol market is expected to continue to rise, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of the downstream demand side. In recent years, driven by the development of downstream coating, painting, ink, adhesive and other industries, as well as the tightening of national environmental protection policies, the consumption of low toxic n-propanol will continue to grow. The application advantages of n-propanol will become more and more obvious. In the future, with the continuous improvement of environmental protection requirements in the coating industry, n-propanol is expected to become the most important solvent in the coating field, and the market development prospect is bright.

1、 Price trend

Taking the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process with large volume in the domestic market as an example, according to the data of the bulk list of business society, the titanium dioxide market is basically stable this week, and the price of domestic titanium dioxide is 20950 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The titanium dioxide market was basically stable this week. The market price of titanium dioxide in China is basically stable. Rutile titanium dioxide is relatively stable, the price of anatase titanium dioxide increases slightly, and some manufacturers increase by about 500 yuan. At present, enterprises are limited and the market starts at a low level. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of rutile titanium dioxide in China is mostly 19500-21800 yuan / ton; The factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is mostly between 18000-19500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area decreased this week, the operating rate of downstream titanium dioxide plants decreased, the overall demand for titanium concentrate decreased slightly, and the demand for titanium ore market weakened. The overall market trading atmosphere was light, the prices of some small and medium-sized miners fell slightly, traders were cautious in taking goods, and the wait-and-see mood was obvious. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1600-1650 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2330-2350 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. The operating rate of the downstream titanium dioxide plant decreases, the overall demand for titanium concentrate shrinks slightly, and the demand for titanium ore market weakens. The overall market trading atmosphere is general, traders are cautious in taking goods, and the wait-and-see mood is obvious. Downstream procurement is mainly on demand. It is expected that the price of titanium concentrate will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be dominated by single negotiation.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that: at present, the quotation of titanium dioxide market is strong, upstream and downstream purchase on demand, and the manufacturers have strong willingness to rise. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. In terms of raw materials, the price of titanium concentrate is reduced, but it is still high, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide is large. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be more wait-and-see and consolidation in the short term.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol today is 6350 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of October 25, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 596400 tons, an increase of 81400 tons, an increase of 15.81%, and 31400 tons, an increase of 5.56%, compared with last Thursday.

In terms of devices, the 200000 t / a coal to ethylene glycol plant in Puyang, Henan Province was shut down for maintenance for one month on October 20. CNOOC shell’s 400000 T / a ethylene glycol unit was shut down for 50 days on October 20.

In terms of MEG outer plate, the atmosphere warmed slightly in the afternoon, and the center of gravity changed little. Recently, the ship’s offer is around us $805 / T, the delivery is around us $795 / T, and the negotiation is between us $795-800 / T. Despite the strong performance of international crude oil, the price limit of coal, as one of the raw materials of ethylene glycol, has hit the ethylene glycol market to a certain extent. Due to the slight accumulation of reserves at the port and the recent approval of 12 million tons of imported crude oil quota for phase II of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the supply is expected to increase, and the market sentiment is becoming more and more cautious. In the downstream, under the continuous influence of the dual control policy, the demand of the polyester industry is low and the purchase and sales are bleak.

Forecast: weak fundamentals, MEG weak shocks.

Acetic anhydride “stuck” high this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride fell slightly this week. Compared with the sharp decline in the price of raw materials, the decline of acetic anhydride market is very small, and the price of acetic anhydride is still “sticking to” a high level. As of October 25, the price of acetic anhydride was 13300.00 yuan / ton, down 5.51% from 14075.00 yuan / ton last weekend (October 17). The price of acetic anhydride fell slightly, and the overall acetic anhydride market remained high.

The market of raw materials fell sharply

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic acid plummeted this week, with a decrease of 16.5% this week; The price of acetic acid plummeted, the cost of acetic anhydride plummeted, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of methanol plummeted this week, the price of methanol fell by as much as 14%, the cost of acetic anhydride fell sharply, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased.

Market overview and future forecast

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, the price of acetic acid and methanol in the raw material market plummeted this week, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure on the decline of acetic anhydride increased. However, the price of acetic anhydride fell slightly this week, and the decline corresponds to the decline of raw materials, which can be basically ignored. This week, the acetic anhydride market remained high, the start-up of acetic anhydride enterprises was low, there was almost no inventory, the supply of acetic anhydride was insufficient, and the demand was stable, As a result, the price of acetic anhydride remained high. In the future, the start-up of acetic anhydride enterprises may rise slowly, the supply of acetic anhydride is expected to increase, and the price of acetic anhydride is expected to fluctuate and fall in the future.

The domestic aggregate MDI market price continued to fall broadly, and the market price fell faster after the middle of the week. At the beginning of the week, the weekly guideline price of Shanghai factory was sharply reduced, which instantly stimulated the bearish mood of the industry. Near the weekend, Wanhua announced the buy it now price in the last stage of October. Although the price remained stable month on month, it was sold in limited quantities, which improved the positive bullish mood of traders. Some traders closed their offer and did not report it, waiting for the price rise at the beginning of next week.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from October 15 to 22, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell from 23400 yuan / ton to 21760 yuan / ton, with a price decrease of 7.01% during the cycle, a price increase of 4.03% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 7.06%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of October 22:

Region, Wanhua, Shanghai

South China 21500 yuan / ton 21000-21200 yuan / ton

East China 21600-21800 yuan / ton 21200-21300 yuan / ton

North China and Shandong 21300-21500 yuan / ton 21200-21300 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of October 22:

enterprise ., Model, price

Nanjing Tanqing Trading Co., Ltd Each model 21500 yuan / ton

Guangzhou Boshun Chemical Co., Ltd Shanghai Material 21500 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd Wanhua material 21800 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd Shanghai Material 21500 yuan / ton

Linyi Shijia Trading Co., Ltd Wanhua material 21800 yuan / ton

Linyi Shijia Trading Co., Ltd Shanghai Material 21500 yuan / ton

The recent arrival of low-cost Jinhu goods in the early stage has exacerbated the bearish sentiment of the industry in the future. Shanghai maintenance plants have also been restarted one after another, and the tight supply situation may be alleviated.

After the National Day holiday, the price of raw material pure benzene fell. Due to the impact of film restrictions in the lower reaches of Jiangsu, the overall commencement is not ideal, and the prices of bulk commodities and downstream styrene have weakened significantly, so the industry is bearish on the outlook.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Raw aniline has strengthened in a wide range. Despite the increase of unit load, the overall operating rate of domestic aniline is still low, the spot tradable volume is small, and the factory has the operation of sparing sales at low prices and limited delivery.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Shanghai Ecological Environment Bureau recently publicized the impact assessment information of MD refining expansion project of Shanghai BASF Polyurethane Co., Ltd. before submitting for approval. The total investment of the project is planned to be 340 million yuan to build a refining unit with an MDI capacity of 90000 tons / year and supporting storage tank farm.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is mainly sorted out.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate and rise this week, and some enterprises increased their prices slightly. On October 21, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 177200 yuan / ton, which was 3.14% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 171800 yuan / ton on October 17). On October 21, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 184400 yuan / ton, which was 3.02% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 179000 yuan / ton on October 17). As of October 21, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is about 175000 ~ 188000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is about 185000 ~ 205000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise this week, and the upward range slowed down significantly. Some enterprises still raised the price of lithium carbonate, and the upward range was basically relatively small. At present, due to the excessive pressure on the superimposed cost of power restriction by downstream enterprises, the procurement demand has weakened, which has relaxed the tension of industrial carbon and electric carbon shipment. All enterprises are in the state of tentative quotation, with strong market wait-and-see mood and relatively few transactions.

The downstream domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market operates stably. At present, the raw material price is high, the cost side support is strong, the demand side is weakened, and the focus of market negotiation is temporarily stable. In addition, with the gradual release of new capacity in October, the output will rise, and the price of lithium hydroxide may slow down.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the market price is rising, the focus of negotiation is high, the downstream is mainly just in need of procurement, and the transaction atmosphere is cautious. Due to the rapid upward range of raw material prices in the near future, the price conduction rate of lithium iron phosphate has increased and the rising range has expanded.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, due to the impact of the current limited gas and power restriction policy, the price rise of lithium carbonate is small, and the downstream wants to lower the raw material price, deepening the game mood between the supplier and the demander. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may continue to be dominated slowly.

Trade name: silica

Latest price (October 20): 6450.00 yuan / ton

As of October 20, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 6450.00 yuan / ton. The price of white carbon black increased widely, the supply side was tight, the price of raw materials increased, the cost of white carbon black increased, followed passively, the price continued to rise, the tight state of goods was difficult to improve in the short term, and the high-level transportation was the main player.

Future forecast: it is expected that the high-level operation of white carbon black will be the main in the short term, and the supply side will be tight and the improvement will be slow.