In the first week after the festival (2.7-11), the domestic liquid ammonia Market warmed up, the prices in Shandong and Hebei rose at the beginning of the week, and the market gradually stabilized from the middle of the week to the weekend. Prices rose in Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan and Northwest China. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of February 11, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 1.37%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4200-4400 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, the northern market mainly rose after the festival, which was mainly affected by the recovery of transportation after the festival and the dilution of the impact of the epidemic. During the Winter Olympics, the supply of Shandong, Hebei and other places tightened, affecting some output. At the same time, it also led to the recovery of prices in surrounding Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions. In addition, the shutdown of Fujian Wanhua plant also caused local supply tension and helped the ammonia price rise. The center of gravity of ammonia price in Northwest China has also moved upward. Qinghai Yuntianhua gas is limited, and the supply has been tightened; Superimposed on the recovery of traffic after snow in Ningxia, supporting the rise of ammonia price.

On the cost side, at present, the price of liquid ammonia is still supported by the cost side. The coal rebounded sharply before the festival. Although the market decreased after the festival, it is still running at a high level.

From the demand side, urea and compound fertilizer are better as a whole. According to the monitoring of business society, urea rose by 2.12% in the week after the festival. After the festival, the downstream inquiry increased, the inventory pressure of urea manufacturers was not large, and the price rose according to the trend. At present, the price is 2700 yuan / ton. The demand for agriculture is increasing, and the demand for industry is mainly rigid. With the advent of the fertilizer peak season in North China, dealers’ enthusiasm for taking goods has increased, and compound fertilizer plants have replenished goods one after another. The market price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. The downstream plate factory just needs to purchase. From the perspective of supply: affected by the Winter Olympics, the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons, a slight decrease. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand is good, the supply of urea is tight, and the future urea mainly rises slightly.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. At present, there are signs of further widening the price difference between urea and liquid ammonia, indicating that the market of liquid ammonia is still weaker than that of urea.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram shows that the current liquid ammonia industry chain continues to improve, and the price of natural gas upstream of the gas head is strong. However, the performance of coal head is weak, and the downstream shows a certain rigidity, with most rising products, especially melamine and ammonium chloride.

Future forecast: the business society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is stable and partially tight. Many enterprises in Anhui, Shanxi, Jiangsu and other places have maintenance plans next week, and the supply is still good. The downstream urea market is still rising, which will further support the ammonia price. It is expected that liquid ammonia will still have some upward space in the near future.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (February 16): 14826.67 yuan / ton

The market price of melamine fell on February 16, down 2.20% compared with the previous trading day and up 53.80% compared with the price on January 16. At present, the price of upstream urea is falling, the cost support is weakened, the enterprises mainly execute the early orders, the performance of domestic demand is insufficient, the sales pressure of enterprises is increasing, and the price is under pressure.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.

Affected by the cost after the festival, the epoxy resin market first rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market offer was 27925 yuan / ton on February 7, and the market offer was 29300 yuan / ton as of February 15, with a cumulative increase of 4.92% after the festival. So far, the offer of liquid resin Market in East China is 28800-29600 yuan / ton, and the offer of solid resin Market in Huangshan is 25000-25600 yuan / ton.

After the festival, the epoxy resin market rose significantly, mainly due to the rise of dual raw materials. After the festival, the bisphenol a factory increased by 200-400 yuan / ton, the factory offered 18900-19200 yuan / ton, and the market offered 19000-19200 yuan / ton. After the festival, bisphenol A was significantly boosted by the influence of raw material phenol / acetone, and the first auction in the venue increased by 1500 yuan / ton, with the implementation of 17000 yuan / ton, which significantly boosted the market. However, as the market negotiation did not improve after the rise, the market was at a high level and operated smoothly this week.

Another important raw material, epichlorohydrin, showed a trend of rising first and then weak adjustment after the festival. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer was 18233 yuan / ton on February 7, pushed up to 19507 yuan / ton on February 11, and today’s market offer was 19190 yuan / ton, showing an upward trend as a whole. The cumulative increase after the festival was 5.48%, and the market entered a stable period this week.

In terms of equipment, the overall operating rate of liquid resin is about 70%; The operating rate of resin is about 4%.

From the perspective of business society, a few days before returning to the market after the festival, the double raw materials have exceeded 19000 yuan / ton, the market performance is strong, the cost of epoxy resin has increased by 1000 yuan, pushing up the sentiment, and even some enterprises offer to 30000 yuan / ton. However, at present, the downstream users have not fully recovered, the rising sentiment is cautious, the market transaction is general, and the operation will be dominated by high-level consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 15400.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 17833.33 yuan / ton this weekend, up 2433.33 yuan / ton, or 15.80%. Overall, isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose sharply this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 17500 yuan / ton, which increased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of isobutyraldehyde at the weekend was 18000 yuan / ton, up from 18000 yuan / ton at the end of last week; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 18000 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 3500 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7750.80 yuan / ton last weekend to 8270.60 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.71%, an increase of 17.15% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 16647.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 18400.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 10.53%. The market of neopentyl glycol rose sharply and the downstream demand increased, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late February may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and the cost support increased. The downstream neopentyl glycol market rose sharply, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly.

DOP prices soared and fell after the festival

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the DOP price fell after the sharp rise after the festival, and the DOP market was strongly adjusted. As of February 11, the DOP price was 12950 yuan / ton, up 13.35% from 11425 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. The sharp rise in crude oil price accumulated the rising demand for replenishment after the holiday, which stimulated the sharp rise in DOP price. After replenishment, DOP price fell.

After a sharp rise in prices

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of domestic isooctanol fell after the sharp rise after the festival, with an increase of 15.10% this week. During the Spring Festival, the price of crude oil soared, the stock replenishment increased after the festival, the demand rose, and the price of isooctanol soared. Customers had great resistance to high priced octanol. After the stock replenishment, the high price of isooctanol fell, and the demand for isooctanol was weak. In the future, the isooctanol market fluctuated and stabilized, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure remained.

The price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after the rise after the festival. As of February 11, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8525 yuan / ton, up 7.54% from 7925 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the demand for phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized in the future, the price of DOP raw materials stabilized, and the cost support weakened.

PVC market fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of PVC fluctuated and rose after the festival, and the PVC market rose. As of February 11, the price of PVC was 8920 yuan / ton, up 5.40% from 8460 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. During the Spring Festival, the sharp rise in crude oil prices stimulated the rise in PVC prices, the economic recovery after the festival and the increase in rigid demand for PVC; The overall demand for plasticizer is rising, and the DOP market is relatively bad.

Future expectations

According to DOP data analysts of business agency, the soaring price of crude oil during the Spring Festival accumulated the impact of replenishment of downstream customers after the festival, the prices of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride rose sharply after the festival, and the cost of DOP rose; With the completion of replenishment, the high price of raw materials fell, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. In the future, the economic environment recovers slowly, the demand for plasticizers increases slowly, the upward momentum of DOP is still weakening, and the price shock of DOP is expected to stabilize.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week. On February 10, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 369600 yuan / ton, which was 4.23% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 354600 yuan / ton on February 6). On February 10, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 394000 yuan / ton, which was 3.14% higher than that at the beginning of the week (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 382000 yuan / ton on February 6). As of February 10, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is about 320000 ~ 400000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is about 360000 ~ 420000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily after the Spring Festival holiday. At present, the upstream and downstream markets are in the state of resumption of production and work, so the market demand will gradually increase. Around the middle of February, domestic lithium carbonate maintenance enterprises will gradually resume normal production, and the supply will increase. Although the cathode material enterprises in the downstream have reduced production slightly, the demand for lithium carbonate is still at a high level.

The downstream lithium hydroxide Market is rising. At present, the upstream lithium carbonate goods are tight, the price is rising, the cost support is strong, some manufacturers are in the maintenance period, the demand performance is OK, and the focus of market negotiation is rising.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is rising steadily. At present, the price of raw materials in the upstream is rising, the supply side is tight, and the focus of negotiation is high, while the downstream demand is still high, which has a certain support for the price of lithium iron phosphate and the price continues to be strong.

Analysts of lithium carbonate of business society believe that with the downstream market gradually entering the production track after the festival, the demand for lithium carbonate will continue to increase, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (February 9): 12933.33 yuan / ton

On February 9, the market price of melamine was strong, up 17.22% compared with the previous trading day and 33.79% compared with the price on January 9. At present, the price of urea in the upstream is rising, the cost is supported to a certain extent, the operating rate of melamine market is not high, the main enterprises mainly issue early orders, the market supply is tight, and the downstream enterprises resume work one after another, mainly just need to follow up.

It is expected that the melamine market may run strongly in the short term.

The price of o-benzene rose on February 7

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average quotation price of o-xylene on February 7 was 7400 yuan / ton, up 4.23% from the listing price of o-xylene Sinopec of 7100 yuan / ton on January 28 of the previous trading day. The adjacent benzene market rose strongly.

Key points of analysis

During the Spring Festival, the price of crude oil rose sharply, the price of mixed xylene rebounded and rose, and the cost of o-benzene rose; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, and the demand for phthalic anhydride was strongly adjusted. The rising cost and demand are stable, the driving force for the rise of orthobenzene is increased, the external price of orthobenzene is increased, the price difference between domestic and foreign orthobenzene is increased, which is more favorable to the domestic orthobenzene market.

Future forecast

The cost increases, the price difference at home and abroad increases, the benefit of adjacent benzene increases, and the market of adjacent benzene rises strongly in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 27, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11366.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.40% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year decrease of 34.67% in a three-month cycle.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly in January. In the first ten days, after the new year’s Day holiday, the price of raw propylene rose steadily, the downstream orders were released, the inventory pressure was reduced, and the focus of market negotiation gradually increased. With the cold performance of the demand side, the market price was frozen. In the middle of the year, the price of raw propylene rose and the cost support was strengthened, but the demand side was not followed up enough. The market atmosphere was light and the price was loose under the gradual pressure of inventory. With the slightly low load operation of some devices in the field, the spot supply was tight, and the manufacturer’s attitude of supporting the price was the main. In the last ten days, the price of raw propylene fell, the cost support weakened, the downstream pre festival goods preparation, the social inventory of propylene oxide was low, and the market was strong to follow up. Near the holiday, some logistics were limited and terminals were delisted one after another. The market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong and the price operated stably.

For upstream propylene, on January 26, the propylene (Shandong) market fell, and the price adjustment range was reduced compared with that at the beginning of the week. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7750-7850 yuan / ton. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, the downstream shutdown or production reduction holiday, the propylene market plunged, and the price fell rapidly at the high level of 8000 yuan / ton, resulting in weak demand support. At the same time, the downstream goods preparation is basically completed, and the supply and demand situation will not change much in the near future. On January 26, the reference price of propylene was 7746.80, an increase of 2.63% compared with January 1 (7548.60).

For downstream propylene glycol, on January 26, the reference price of propylene glycol was 15633.33, a decrease of 4.67% compared with January 1 (16400.00).

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that the price of raw material propylene is weak recently, the cost support is weakened, the factory inventory pressure is temporarily controllable, and the downstream needs to be followed up just before the festival. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be stable in the short term.

According to the survey data of business society, the bromine price will be high in 2021. Besides the first quarter, the annual price was higher than the ten-year level. In 2021, the price of bromine climbed all the way and fell in the fourth quarter.

It can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart of bromine that the whole 2021 is rising except for the decline in July 8, November and December, and the highest increase in October is 43.01%.

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the average market price of bromine at the beginning of 2021 was about 33333.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of 2021 was about 53142.86 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 59.43%.

According to the survey data of business society, bromine rose by 59.43%, soda ash in the upstream of bromine rose by 101.49%, sulfuric acid price rose by 49.13% and sulfur price rose by 100%.

Bromine prices rose slightly in the first quarter. On January 1, the average market price was about 33333.33 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the average market price was 35055.56 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 5.17%. Affected by the tight spot supply, the domestic bromine market was strong in January, and many manufacturers had stopped. Except for a few enterprises that can provide spot goods, most enterprises ship goods in inventory, and the market inventory is low. However, the downstream flame retardant market has entered the off-season, the demand for bromine has declined, and the market supply and demand game is obvious. Bromine prices in March were generally strong. The supply of bromine market in Shandong is relatively tight, the downstream flame retardants and intermediates are well started, and the demand for bromine is acceptable. Many bromine manufacturers have the intention to support the price, and it is difficult to find a low price.

Bromine prices rose all the way in the second quarter. On April 1, the average market price of bromine was about 35500 yuan / ton, and on June 30, the average market price of bromine was about 46062.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 29.75%. Bromine prices are generally strong. The supply of bromine market in Shandong is relatively tight, bromine enterprises have been under construction for a long time, the growth of bromine output is relatively slow, the overall supply of market is relatively tight, and the procurement of downstream flame retardants and intermediates is OK, which supports the price of bromine. Many bromine manufacturers have the intention to support the price, and it is difficult to find a low price.

In the third quarter, the bromine price was adjusted and operated, showing a “V” trend. On July 1, the average market price of bromine was about 46062.5 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the average market price of bromine was about 48250 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.75%. From the beginning of July to the middle and late August, the price of bromine fell. At present, the domestic bromine fell and the trading atmosphere was poor. At present, the mainstream price of enterprises is about 43000-45000 yuan / ton, and the price of bromine is weaker than that of the previous period. It is mainly due to the low load of downstream flame retardants and intermediates, and the reduction of bromine procurement. There is resistance to the long-term rise of bromine. Due to the high temperature in summer, the maintenance enterprises in the south are also increasing, and the bromine is mainly purchased on demand. Bromine prices rose from mid to late August to early September, mainly due to the decline in the output of bromine enterprises in Shandong and the shutdown of manufacturers in Changyi. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine were started. Although they were stopped recently, the demand for bromine was ok, the demand for bromine was ok, and the bromine price increased.

In the fourth quarter, bromine prices rose and then fell. On October 1, the average market price of bromine was about 48250 yuan / ton, and on December 31, the average market price of bromine was about 53142.86 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 10.14%. At the beginning of October, the price of bromine rose. Affected by the “double control” policy, the supply tension was difficult to solve. However, the start-up of bromine downstream flame retardant and intermediate industry still supports bromine. Then it entered a game stage between the two sides. After entering December, the bromine price went down, mainly due to the weak operation of bromine price, and the actual transaction was general. At present, the price of bromine in China is lower. At present, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are under construction, the load has been reduced recently, and there was sufficient stock before, which is in conflict with the high price of bromine, and multidimensional rigid demand is the main demand. Supply and demand continue to play a game.

Business analysts believe that due to the impact of the general environment and the dual control policy, bromine prices rose in 2021 and were at a high level in a decade. After the economy is stable in 2022, the bromine price in 2022 may not be high in 2021. In the first quarter, as in previous years, due to the low temperature, insufficient bromine extraction from seawater, low inventory of bromine enterprises and limited production in winter, there was a shortage of supply. After the year, the bromine price may be at a relatively high level, and the price may tend to be stable in the third and fourth quarters, depending on the demand of the downstream market.