According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On December 29th, the average market price in Henan region was 7700 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7700 yuan/ton on December 25th, and a decrease of 0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the ice crystal market continued to remain stable, with a slight decrease in upstream product prices and a decrease in ice crystal costs. However, the spot supply of raw materials is tight, and prices are still at a relatively high level. There is still cost support for ice crystal enterprises, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak. Purchasing is mainly based on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The ice crystal market is watching and operating. As of December 29th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7000 and 8700 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market has slightly decreased, with an average market price of 3531.25 yuan/ton on December 26th, a decrease of 0.35% compared to the price of 3543.75 yuan/ton on December 25th. The tight exploitation of upstream mines and the shortage of raw materials have restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, and some manufacturers have limited production. However, towards the end of the year, some small factories have engaged in low-priced inventory clearance behavior, resulting in poor fluorite sales and poor downstream procurement. On site prices have slightly decreased, weakening support for cryolite.

Market forecast: Ice crystal raw materials are tight, and cost pressure on ice crystal enterprises still exists. Ice crystal manufacturers mainly raise prices, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and they are more resistant to high priced ice crystal. However, at the same time, upstream prices are lowered, and downstream bearish sentiment is more. The downward momentum of ice crystal prices is increased, and it is expected that the ice crystal market will continue to decline, with slight price fluctuations. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of styrene in Shandong Province rose first and then fell in December. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8400.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8580.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%. The lowest point was on December 6th, with a price of 8175.00 yuan/ton. The current price has increased by 6.69% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

In December, the market price of styrene first fell and then rose. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly declining since October. This month, the market has been declining for three weeks and rising for one week, with the decline being greater than the increase. The main reason for the decline is the decline in international oil prices, poor cost support, a stalemate between supply and demand of styrene, slow transactions, and a continuous decline in the market. After the market bottomed out, it rebounded, but the magnitude was small and the upward trend was weak.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fell first and then rose in December, with a price of 6992 yuan/ton on December 1st; On December 30th, the price was 7222 yuan/ton. Recently, negotiations for pure benzene in East China have been active, with prices rising and traders actively shipping at high prices. Shandong Refinery has good transactions and inventory levels continue to be low. By the end of the week, after Shandong pure benzene rose to 7150 yuan/ton, transactions began to slow down, and some downstream and traders began to resist high prices.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in December. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9666 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9566.67 yuan/ton. The cost of PS is supported, and the market trading is average. It is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) price may mainly fluctuate and consolidate

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and fell in December. The average quote for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the month was 10076.00 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 10000.00 yuan/ton. In December, domestic EPS prices were affected by the decline in costs, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly experience a narrow range decline trend.

The domestic ABS market declined in December. In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, but recently, due to supply pressure, some enterprises have seen a decrease in load. But the decline in average operating rate is narrow, and the current industry load is still above 73%. The production of the enterprise is relatively stable, and the inventory position has decreased due to some new contracts. The improvement of the company’s loss situation is limited, and the supply pressure is relatively high.

At present, the restart of the styrene plant is greater than the maintenance, and there is an expectation of an increase in supply. However, due to the decline in international oil prices and poor cost support, the expected short-term volatility in the styrene market is mainly downward.

Recently (12.18-12.26), the market for dichloromethane has been fluctuating and consolidating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 26th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2427 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% from 2425 yuan/ton on December 18th; The low point within the cycle is 2360 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, the price of liquid chlorine continues to decline, and the cost center of dichloromethane shifts downwards; At present, there is not much inventory pressure on enterprises, but the purchasing willingness of terminals and merchants is low, the shipment volume of merchants is small, and the bearish atmosphere in the market is spreading. As of December 26th, the factory price of dichloromethane loose water has been adjusted narrowly, and as of December 26th, the mainstream factory price of dichloromethane loose water in Shandong region is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.18-12.26), the domestic methane chloride production has fluctuated narrowly. Jiangxi Liwen started to shut down for maintenance on December 17th and plans to restart soon.

Recently (12.18-12.26), the price of raw material methanol fluctuated narrowly, and the price of liquid chlorine continued to decline, resulting in weak cost support for dichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of December 26th, the spot price of methanol was 2465 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% from 2450 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the highest point in the cycle was 2505 yuan/ton. As of December 26th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around -100 yuan/ton, continuing to decline.

The domestic supply of methane chloride is still relatively loose, and the supply of domestic dichloromethane will continue to be loose after the restart of Jiangxi Liwen plant. In addition, downstream demand is weak. Although the inventory pressure of enterprises can still be borne, the bearish atmosphere in the market is becoming stronger, and enterprises are expected to gradually accumulate inventory.

Market forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business Society, the demand for dichloromethane is weak in the short term, while the supply is relatively loose, which has a bearish impact on the dichloromethane market. In addition, the lower raw material prices have weakened the cost support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the later period.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region rose first and then fell this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province rose from 12750.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12850.00 yuan/ton on December 20th, an increase of 0.78%, and then fell to 12775 yuan/ton on the weekend, a decrease of 0.58%. The overall increase was 0.20%. Weekend prices increased by 32.16% year-on-year. On December 25th, the isooctanol commodity index was 95.77, an increase of 1.84 points from yesterday, a decrease of 30.35% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 172.46% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand is average

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of Shandong isooctanol have seen fluctuations in their quotes this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market saw a slight increase this week, with prices rising from 6895.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6928.25 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.47%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.10% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price rose first and then fell this week. The DOP price dropped from 11850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11800 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.42%, and the weekend price increased by 17.76% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In late December, the market for isooctanol in Shandong may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has an upward trend, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

From December 18 to December 25, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly decreased, with prices this week at 81000 yuan/ton, up 0.62%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the antimony ingot market has been relatively stable.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has declined, and as of December 25th, the price remained stable at $11350 per ton. Currently, the market atmosphere is weak.

The antimony ingot market has remained relatively stable since October, with a slight rebound in prices this week, and a slight increase of about 500 yuan/ton in the spot market. The supply side has not changed much this week, and the supply at the mining end is still tight. However, this news has been basically digested, and its impact on the market is limited. With the recent stabilization of the market, the mentality of smelters to be reluctant to sell and raise prices has begun to increase. However, the tight supply at the mining end has not been improved, and the overall supply of antimony ingots is tight. In terms of demand, the downstream antimony oxide market has recently rebounded slightly, and the export situation has also improved to some extent compared to the previous period, driving the overall recovery of the raw material market. However, the downstream antimony oxide market still maintains procurement, providing strong demand support for the antimony ingot market. Overall, the supply of antimony ingots in the market is tight, with downstream rigid demand support. At the end of the year, some companies had a demand for funds to be withdrawn, and spot market trading slightly improved. However, without clear guidance from the spot market, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will continue to operate temporarily and steadily in the near future. We will pay attention to changes in downstream demand and the performance of overseas markets in the future.

This week, the antimony oxide market has slightly increased by about 500 yuan/ton following the trend of antimony ingots. Currently, the market is in a wait-and-see attitude, and overseas sales have slightly improved. Currently, antimony oxide enterprises are maintaining a rigid demand for antimony ingots, and it is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term.

On December 24th, the non-ferrous index was 1102 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.35% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 81.55% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 51st week of 2023 (12.18-12.22), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were aluminum (2.48%), silver (1.99%), and zinc (1.85%). There are a total of 10 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium metal (-3.06%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (-2.71%), and dysprosium oxide (-2.62%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.22%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7530.00 yuan/ton this week. The current price remains unchanged on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.25%.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has stabilized this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past three months, and the market has remained stable this week. Recently, the market price of potassium chloride has been fluctuating and consolidating. Downstream demand remains low, and the potassium carbonate market is consolidating. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7300-7500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated: 60% of the port’s large red particles are priced at around 3000-3150 yuan/ton, and 62% of the port’s white potassium prices are mostly priced at 2820-2880 yuan/ton, with prices temporarily stable. The domestic potassium chloride market has a large supply of imported goods, and it is expected that the potassium chloride market will be weak and consolidate in the future.

Recently, the domestic potassium chloride market is still in a slow downward trend, with poor cost support. Downstream demand for essential procurement is maintained, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 20th, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.74% from December 11th at 1720.00 yuan/ton.

Cost side: International crude oil rebounded after falling. The unexpected rise in CPI data and the rebound in inflation have lowered market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut early next year, coupled with concerns about oversupply; The results of the OPEC+production policy meeting did not meet market expectations; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation may come to an end, but there is still a possibility of further rate hikes; The weakening of the US dollar has boosted oil price valuations, coupled with the International Energy Agency (IEA) raising its forecast for next year’s oil demand.

Supply side: Recently, the import ships of petroleum coke have concentrated at the port, causing the cost of sponge coke to be inverted. The shipping sentiment of traders is average, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke at the port has increased. Recently, the rainy and snowy weather in the north has affected logistics, leading to an increase in the price of ground refined medium sulfur petroleum coke. In addition, the supply of medium sulfur petroleum coke is relatively tight, and downstream demand still exists, resulting in a continuous increase in the price of petroleum coke; The supply of high sulfur petroleum coke is sufficient, the demand is limited, and the overall price is declining.

On the demand side: As of December 14th, there were 364 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall start-up rate of 48.53%, a decrease of 11 furnaces compared to the previous period. Among them, there is a decrease of 1 unit in Xinjiang, 5 units in Yunnan, and 6 units in Sichuan. The number of silicon metal furnaces continues to decline, the operating rate in the southwest region continues to decline, and the northern environmental protection inspection shuts down for insulation. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

Recently, the shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke has been average, while the price of raw petroleum coke has risen. Currently, the demand for aluminum carbon in the market is still acceptable, and the shipment of medium sulfur trace amount calcined coke is stable; The demand in the negative electrode market is weak, which provides weak support for the price of medium sulfur conventional calcined coke market. Currently, the overall weakness of medium sulfur calcined coke is mainly consolidated.

At present, the market for electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, with prices as of December 20th at 18987 yuan/ton. The National Development and Reform Commission has stated its intention to increase efficiency and promote economic development, increase macroeconomic regulation, and spot aluminum prices have risen for seven consecutive times. The overall market situation of carbon for aluminum is still good, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a mandatory requirement.

Market forecast: Currently, the overall petroleum coke market in the local refining industry remains stable, with the end of rainy and snowy weather and the basic recovery of logistics in various regions. Refinery shipments have improved, and downstream demand is still acceptable. We will gradually replenish goods to support the price of petroleum coke in the local refining industry. However, there is currently sufficient inventory of petroleum coke in the refineries, and it is expected that the local refining industry will mainly consolidate in the near future.

Price trend

In mid December, the domestic POM market remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices mostly remained stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13050 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the system chart of commodity market analysis, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong region has recently risen and then fluctuated horizontally. The price of raw material methanol has increased in the early stage, which is beneficial for the cost of formaldehyde. However, downstream panel factories have average demand, market trading sentiment is average, formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally, and the support for the POM market is still sufficient.

In terms of supply:

In mid December, the overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises slightly adjusted. The industry equipment load is about 86%. In the early stage, the market supply has been reduced, and most enterprises have returned to low levels of inventory. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of enterprises, and the supply side still has sufficient support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

In mid December, the production level of downstream POM enterprises in China was average, with enterprises mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and POM consumption did not show any improvement. The operator needs to follow up with a small amount of urgent needs, operates cautiously, and resists high priced sources of goods. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market trend remained stagnant in mid December. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has stabilized, and there is abundant supply of goods on site, but the inventory position of enterprises is still not high. Manufacturers have stabilized the confidence of traders through market support operations, but some merchants have increased their shipping pressure, and actual orders tend to be sold at a discounted price. On the demand side, terminal enterprises operate at a low level, with cautious purchasing operations and resistance to high priced sources, resulting in average on-site trading. It is expected that the POM market will remain stagnant in the near future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PP market slightly rebounded in mid December, with prices of various wire drawing brands increasing in a narrow range. As of December 18th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7600 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation of -0.65% compared to the initial average price level.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, there has been solid news of OPEC’s recent reduction in international crude oil production, with prices rebounding and overall performance rising from a low level. Propylene has been boosted by crude oil, but the price has come under pressure and returned to consolidation. Due to the loosening of propane prices, cost support for PDH has fallen. The methanol market is relatively stable. Upstream raw materials fluctuate, and overall support for PP is still acceptable.

The flow of raw materials varies in various directions, and the cost side provides significant support for PP. In terms of industry load, the average load of the polypropylene industry was around 73% in mid December, which was slightly lower than the previous period. Although the overall supply of goods is abundant, production and inventory have steadily declined, and the pressure on on-site supply has eased. In terms of demand, downstream plastic weaving production is maintained at around 42%, while the production rate of film materials and injection molding enterprises is maintained at over 60%, and the overall position remains stable. Terminal enterprises maintain cautious operations in purchasing goods, with poor trading activity on the exchange and overall consolidation of the wire drawing material market.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also declined. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7600 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.16% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 7.13% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have maintained a stable load, with an operating rate of over 39%. The digestion speed of end products is relatively strong due to frequent outbreaks of influenza, and the demand for fiber materials in the market is increasing narrowly, which does not provide significant support for the price of non-woven fabrics. It is expected that the market for fiber materials will continue in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the domestic supply and demand situation.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market saw a narrow decline in mid December. As of December 18th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8075 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is -1.97%, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.78%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has not increased significantly, and the impact of seasonal climate on the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not yet significant. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. It is expected that the melt blown material market will maintain a narrow consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market rebounded narrowly in mid December. The trend of upstream raw materials fluctuates, and there is still support from the cost side for the market. Terminal enterprises maintain their initial level of production, and their procurement operations tend towards a small amount of rigid demand. The load of the PP device has been reduced to alleviate some supply pressure. At present, the supply and demand of PP are still at a weak level, and the market momentum is not high. It is expected that the PP market will maintain a consolidation operation in the short term.

This week, the melamine market is mainly stable, with a strong market atmosphere. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7250.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday’s price.

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the reference price for urea on December 14th was 2567.50, a decrease of 1.31% compared to December 1st (2601.67). Recently, the raw material urea market has been consolidating narrowly, and the cost is facing significant support from the melamine market.

Supply and demand side: At present, the production of melamine on the supply side is at a high level, and downstream demand is being replenished in an appropriate amount. Purchasing in the market is active, and melamine enterprises have sufficient advance orders. The demand side support is strong, and the trading atmosphere in the melamine market has improved.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that under the support of recent costs and demand, the melamine market is operating steadily with a strong atmosphere. Enterprises are mainly executing pending orders in an orderly manner. It is expected that the melamine market may continue to operate steadily with a strong atmosphere in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material urea prices and enterprise operating conditions.