According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of March 16, 2022, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 726 yuan / ton. Compared with March 1 (the ex factory price of phosphate rock was 710 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 16 yuan / ton, or 2.35%. Compared with February 1 (the ex factory price of phosphate rock was 700 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 26 yuan / ton, or 3.81%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that last week, the domestic phosphorus ore ushered in the first rise in the market since the spring. The market price rise of domestic 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 10-30 yuan / ton. Entering this week, the supply in the phosphate rock field continued to be tight, the downstream demand performed well, the trading atmosphere in the field was mild, and the phosphate rock market operated stably at a high level. As of March 16, the price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Guizhou is around 670-720 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 580-650 yuan / ton. The increase range of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guangxi is about 10-30 yuan / ton, and the price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is about 680-730 yuan / ton. At present, the goods in the phosphate rock field are tight, the price is strong as a whole, and the market in the field continues to be high and strong.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product . region . Taste Price . remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou . 30%. 670-720 yuan / ton . Factory price

Phosphate rock . Guizhou . 28%. 580-650 yuan / ton . Factory price

Phosphate rock . Guangxi . 30%. 680-730 yuan / ton . Factory price

Phosphate rock . Guangxi . 28%. 600-650 yuan / ton . Factory price

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, in March, the overall domestic yellow phosphorus market moved downward slightly. The on-site inquiry is general, and the transaction of new orders is limited. The downstream is more resistant to high-priced yellow phosphorus, the transaction of new orders is limited, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the inquiry is general. It is mainly just needed and can be used and taken at any time. According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 15, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 33750 yuan / ton, down 14.19% compared with March 1 (39333.33 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the overall support of the domestic phosphorus ore market is relatively favorable. The phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market will mainly focus on high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from March 4 to 11, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 11200 yuan / ton to 11666 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.17% during the week, and the price fell by 6.91% month on month and 14.38% year-on-year.

This week, domestic cyclohexanone continued to rise, and crude oil rose at a high level. Sinopec’s pure benzene was listed for three times, raising 700 yuan / ton to 8900 yuan / ton. The pressure on the cost side continued to increase, and the downstream chemical fiber and solvent just needed to follow up. Although the supply and demand of cyclohexanone is weak, under the pressure of cost, cyclohexanone is reluctant to sell at a low price, and the transaction focus keeps rising.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of March 11:

region ., Price

East China . 11900-12000 yuan / ton, cash delivery of the whole vehicle

South China . 12200-12300 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region . 11750-11850 yuan / ton

Raw material pure benzene: East China pure benzene rises first and then falls, and the price fluctuates widely between 8350-8950 yuan / ton. The sharp rise and fall of crude oil has become the main factor leading the price change of pure benzene.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business agency:

Downstream caprolactam: the caprolactam market rose sharply. In the near future, the market is still strongly supported by the cost side. The price of crude oil has soared to the range of 125-130 US dollars, the price of pure benzene has risen to 8900 yuan / ton, and the cost of caprolactam continues to rise. In addition, the supply of caprolactam has decreased recently. Enterprises mainly increase the price and reduce losses, and the price of caprolactam has kept rising.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business society:

The supply and demand of cyclohexanone is weak, but if crude oil and pure benzene continue to rise, there is still room for rise under the pressure of cyclohexanone cost. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business agency expect the short-term cyclohexanone market to fluctuate at a high level.

This week (3.4-3.11), the CIS polybutadiene rubber market rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 11, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber in China was 13840 yuan / ton, up 1.91% from 13580 yuan / ton last Friday.

This week, the ex factory price of CIS polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises increased. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 11, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of Sinopec North China sales company was 13900 yuan / ton. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified, and the international crude oil price reached above US $100 / barrel, with strong cost support. After the price of raw butadiene rose, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber rebounded.

The start-up of polybutadiene rubber is mainly stable.

This week, the operation level of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant is relatively high, with loose supply.

Butadiene prices continued to rise sharply this week, with higher costs. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 11, the price of butadiene was 9286 yuan / ton, up 9.11% from 8511 yuan / ton on Friday.

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of natural rubber was 13170 yuan / ton as of March 11, up 1.00% from 13040 yuan / ton last Friday.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the price of raw materials has rebounded sharply, supported by the cost side. In addition, after the two sessions and the winter Paralympic Games, the downstream construction may increase significantly, and the demand side support is expected to increase. It is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will be dominated in the later stage.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 72926.67 yuan / ton, up 2.87% from 70890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8.76% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 7 and fell by 4 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is relatively volatile.

Supply and demand: although Russia Ukraine negotiations have no substantive results, logistics and transportation have been eased, domestic demand is weak, and imported copper has suffered a significant loss. In terms of monetary policy, it may be a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March. Copper prices continued to strengthen, curbing downstream consumption, and the trend of domestic inventory base continued. The Shanghai nickel incident has had a certain impact on the market. Major exchanges have issued relevant regulatory measures, and the market sentiment has changed. Oil prices plummeted, and copper fell 3.46% overnight, falling below the 10000 yuan mark. Lun Ni’s suspension of trading has heated up the market’s cautious mood, and the weakness of Shanghai copper and the lack of bright spots in domestic downstream consumption.

To sum up: the reality shows marginal improvement, downstream replenishment increases, consumption shows signs of recovery, and the domestic social pool continues to decline. The strong growth expectation was implemented, and the economic growth target of 5.5% exceeded the expectation. It may be released gradually in the later stage, with marginal improvement in fundamentals. The short-term events in Russia and Ukraine and lunni may affect sentiment, with increased volatility. Copper prices are expected to be mainly volatile.

From February 25 to March 4, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased slightly, from 6533 yuan / ton last weekend to 6591 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.89%.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

February 7, 8100.,+400

February 14, 7950.,-150

February 18, 7750.,-200

February 24,. 7900+ one hundred and fifty

March 3, 8200.,+300

On March 3, 2022, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was increased by 300 yuan / ton, 8200 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical 8150 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: HSBC Petrochemical offers 8200 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical offers 8150 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8203 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8200 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8450 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: on March 2, the price of international crude oil futures continued to rise sharply. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both rose above the US $110 mark, and the settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $110.60/barrel, up US $7.19 or 7.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $112.93/barrel, up US $7.96 or 7.6%. Oil prices continued to rise amid the spread of war in Ukraine. The market is expected that the sanctions imposed on Russia may lead to a large withdrawal of oil assets, and the shortage of crude oil supply is expected to further increase in the coming months. On March 3, the US Iran nuclear talks made some progress, and Iranian oil returned to the international supply market, which alleviated the tension of supply to a certain extent. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was reported at US $107.67/barrel, down US $2.93 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $110.46/barrel, down US $2.47 or 2.2%.

This week, with the boost of crude oil prices, the pure benzene market began to rise at the weekend. On March 3, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 100 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical raised the price of pure benzene by 250 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton, and HSBC Petrochemical raised the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton. In the outer disk, Asian pure benzene rose broadly, domestic pure benzene rose with crude oil, and the bottom support strengthened. At present, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene is 8150-8450 yuan / ton. Although the fundamentals are good, the downstream styrene of pure benzene performs generally, so the price increase of pure benzene is limited. On Thursday, major domestic enterprises opened this round of bidding, and the bidding price increase is not obvious this week. The mainstream bidding price in Shandong is 6630 ~ 6635 yuan / ton, only up 65 yuan / ton.

In the future, some crude oil fell over the weekend, and the overall good of the industrial chain is limited. It is expected that crude benzene will mainly fluctuate.

The price of aluminum fluoride stabilized after falling this week

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride stabilized after falling this week. As of March 7, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 11250 yuan / ton, down 2.81% from 11575 yuan / ton on February 25 last week; The aluminum fluoride market fell this week.

Weak decline in raw material prices

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite fell sharply this week, down 7.88%; The price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell by 3.98%. The price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increased.

The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of electrolytic aluminum rose by 4.57% this week. Aluminum prices rose this week, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers started stably, the demand for aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable, the downstream market rose, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride remained.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in business society believe that this week, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell, the price of fluorite fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride fell weakly, the demand for aluminum fluoride was stable, the construction of aluminum fluoride manufacturers resumed, and the supply of aluminum fluoride increased. In the future, the cost is weak, the supply is increasing, the demand is stable, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is increasing, and the upward momentum still exists. In the future, the price of aluminum fluoride is weak and stable.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners continued to rise this week. The average price in Shandong market was 4313.75 yuan / ton on March 6, up 1.47% from 4251.25 yuan / ton on February 28.

On March 6, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 335.52, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 401.60% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Refinery shipments were good this week and prices rose at a high level. At present, the refinery has low inventory, good downstream demand and positive transaction.

Upstream: international crude oil prices soared. The news of IEA member states releasing crude oil reserves did not cool the overheated oil market, and international crude oil futures still rose sharply. It is difficult for Russia and Ukraine to reach a satisfactory outcome in the negotiations, the war in Ukraine is difficult to calm down in the short term, and oil prices soared amid the increasing expectation of energy supply interruption. Judging from the amount of crude oil reserves released by IEA Member States, 2 million barrels are released every day for 30 days, and the total release is only 60 million barrels. At present, Russia’s crude oil output is about 10 million barrels / day, which is only Russia’s output in six days, which is a drop in the bucket. At present, the Western camp’s sanctions against Russia have increased “swift”, known as the financial “nuclear bomb” level sanctions. Some Russian banks will not be able to conduct cross-border trade settlement under this system, which will be a fatal blow to Russia’s energy exports. The market is generally worried about the interruption of energy supply in the future. Instead of calming the oil price, the IEA declaration made the oil price reach a new high in the sound of panic.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose as a whole this week; The market price of metal silicon continues to rise; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose. As of March 6, the price was 23453.33 yuan / ton.

The petroleum coke analyst of business agency believes that: the international crude oil rises sharply, the local petroleum coke price is supported by the cost, the refinery has no pressure on the inventory at present, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected that the petroleum coke price may continue to rise in the near future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 13933.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 15133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1200.00 yuan / ton, or 8.61%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increased slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 14600 yuan / ton, which increased by 600 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde’s ex factory quotation this weekend is 15500 yuan / ton, which is 1200 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 15300 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 8375.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9017.17 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 7.66%, an increase of 6.60% year-on-year over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support was good. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 19333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 18833.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.59%. The neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and early days of March may rise slightly. Although the downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, the downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. However, the upstream propylene market rose sharply and the cost support increased. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (March 3): 12166.67 yuan / ton

On March 3, the melamine market was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, and increased by 16.61% compared with the price on February 3. At present, the upstream urea price is temporarily stable, the cost support is limited, the market supply is abundant, the domestic demand performance is general, the export market is mainly wait-and-see, and the market game is sorted out.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be deadlocked and weak.

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of Shandong isooctanol first rose and then fell this month. The quotation first rose from 12066.67 yuan / ton on February 1 to 14533.33 yuan / ton on February 8, up 2466.66 yuan / ton, up 20.44%, and then fell to 12100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 16.74%. There is an upward trend at the end of the month. On February 27, the isooctanol commodity index was 90.44, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.23% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 157.30% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong rose this month, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand weakened. The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol at the end of the month was 12400 yuan / ton, an increase of 600 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 12300 yuan / ton of isooctanol at the end of the month, an increase of 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Hualu Hengsheng isooctanol offered 12500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market has twists and turns this month. The price rose from 7750.80 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8375.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 8.06%, down 2.09% year-on-year compared with the same period last year, and the cost support is good. The downstream DOP price rose first and then fell. The quotation first rose from 11425 yuan / ton on February 1 to 13400.00 yuan / ton on February 8, an increase of 17.29%, and then fell to 11912.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.10%, a year-on-year decrease of 15.81%. The downstream market rose first and then fell, and the downstream customers have general enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol this month.

The market outlook fell slightly

The domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of March. The price of upstream propylene has an upward trend at the end of the month, with general cost support, but the downstream DOP market has fallen all the way recently, the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isooctanol analyst of business society believes that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate and decline slightly.